Byron Rogers
@byronrogers73
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Formerly @Perf_Genetics and now Director of Research & Development at Stable Analytics LLC. Bought a few fast racehorses using my 👁️ & machine learning models
Lexington, KY
Joined August 2011
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My Australian Racing partnership - 6 horses trained by the leading Australian trainers -
@GaiWaterhouse1
& Adrian Bott,
@FreedmanRacing
and
@JohnOSheaRacing
. The 6 were purchased by me using my machine learning models. Have a look at the details here -
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Storm Boy takes 25.5 strides to cover the last furlong of the
@mmsnippets
Magic Millions in 11:05s. That's 2.3 strides/second with a 7.8m stride length in the final furlong. Most 2yos can't generate a 7.8m stride length ever, let alone when they are tiring after busting the clock
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When you have horses in training in Australia, Ireland and North America, the comparative training methodologies and facilities are stark to say the least. Here’s one a day after a breeze/fast work in Australia. This isn’t ever happening in North America.
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That time of year where breeders are visiting stallion farms to inspect stallions. A reminder that the undisputed greatest thoroughbred sire to ever live - Northern Dancer - stood at 15.1. If someone opines to you about a new sire and says “he’s too small” quickly walk away.
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Last year with
@starbloodstock
I bought just two yearlings
@GoffsUK
Doncaster yearling sale. A colt for £25,000 and a filly for £20,000. Sold both back at the breeze ups this year for £160k & £100k and both are running in the 2yo stakes
@Ascot
today. Best of luck to connections.
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I think it should be mandatory that if you’re going to post her sales cost you should put her winning prizemoney - £3,240 for the winner I believe. Just shows how bad prizemoney needs addressing relative to costs in England.
@edvaughan1
is tip of the iceberg.
@GBRacing
@GBRI_UK
Too good… 300,000gns Gleneagles filly, Sparkling Olly breaks her duck in great style on handicap debut under
@rob_hornby18
for
@RalphBeckett
at
@Chepstow_Racing
…
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The 15.1 hand horse that would now be considered “too small” at a yearling sale, but changed the breed....
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Lost my grandfather today. 97, a fair knock but the umpire called time on the innings. Loved playing cricket in the backyard with him. Rest easy Pop.
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I’m liking the way this 2yo by American Pharoah is progressing towards the European breeze ups this year for
@starbloodstock
🤞🚀
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And there are still some in England that can’t quite understand/believe the single issue of why they are losing so many of their better horses to overseas 👇
#itstheprizemoney
🤯 PYLEDRIVER bags a cool £415k for his HK Vase second - more than his entire earnings from 6 wins (inc G1) and 3 placings in the UK.
Worth the trip
@Muir_Grassick
? 👏 🇬🇧
#HKRacing
#HKIR
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The whole sales season you walk horses back up and down checking their conformation and being hyper critical, and then you go and look at the graded/group stakes winners at the breeding stock sales and you see front ends like this 👇
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And stood at 15.1
Why do buyers think a horse is “too small” when literally the most influential horse to ever look through a bridle was that height?
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Hopefully the European breeze up sales will go in the next few months as
@starbloodstock
has an absolute beauty by American Pharoah out of a stakes winning mare to offer. Being prepared by
@TheBloodstockC
🚀
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How do we find the Elite Thoroughbred Racehorse? Here is a series of blog posts describing our journey with artificial intelligence and data science and how we go about selecting yearlings -
#racehorses
#datascience
#machinelearning
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10 flights, 8 sales and 7 COVID tests later, I’m all done buying for the 2020 yearling sales series. Certainly a strange year. Thanks to all the consignors and grooms throughout the year who presented their horses in terrific order. Hopefully I’ve found some fast ones!
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We work in an industry where elite horses (GSW) are less than 1% of the population. Thats 1 out of 100.
If any agent or consultant in the "prognostication game" looks at 10 horses and tells you that anything above 1 or 2 of the 10 are potentially "elite", they are full of it.
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Always thought it was fascinating when he bought him that
@KennyMcPeek
said Curlin had the best hind leg he’d ever bought - a flat, long pelvis from hip to tail, long, forward placed femur from tail to stifle and an open angle to his hock. This photo shows it pretty well.
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Easy game…say “it looks slow to me” to every yearling…you’ll be right 97% of the time.
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Horse ownership costs in Hong Kong have just been dropped from US$58,000 to US$46,000 a year. You read that correctly…dropped.
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And he flew. Start to 1f in 10.08s, Start to 2f in 20.59 😮 Despite slipping three times on the ground. 3rd fastest of 142 horses at the sale. A seriously rapid horse.
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Thanks to
@BH_EMitchell
for including me in an article in this weeks
@BloodHorse
magazine on using technology for gait analysis. The
@DeepLabCut
package is sure to change industries like the thoroughbred. Read here -
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Four bought
@GoffsUK
day one with
@starbloodstock
for breezing in 2023. Filly by Holy Roman Emperor, filly by Havana Grey, colt by Iffraaj and a filly by Inns of Court. All to be prepared by
@DiegoDi41476096
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Just booked my tickets to fly to Australia to see my family for the first time since January 2020 and hopefully find a few days (and fast horses) in QLD for
@mmsnippets
I feel like I’ve won lotto.
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The new
@Goffs1866
Dubai Breeze up sale is later this month. Delighted to be able to offer this colt with
@starbloodstock
at the sale. A son of
@BreedersCup
winner Accelerate that’s been prepped
@curraghrace
under the experienced hands of
@DiegoDi41476096
Looks like he’s quick.
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Delighted to be asked by
@jackcantillon
of
@SyndicatesHQ
to talk about how we use machine learning and A.I in racehorse selection - Horse Racing's Tech Transformation: Are Machines Taking Over? | Art of t...
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Always a timely reminder to seek a little respite in the Northern Dancer bar
@keenelandsales
and look at the photo of him after winning the Blue Grass Stks. All 15.1 hands of him and full of muscle, to then go outside and see a load of giraffes masquerading as future racehorses.
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Here you go
@Jared_C_Burdine
Your lad by Kantharos, heading to the
@Tattersalls1766
Breeze Ups with
@starbloodstock
May foal....beast...
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Delighted to have bought (and sold) my first Royal Ascot winner with
@starbloodstock
. Micky,
@NoelMcDonnell2
and all the team at Star do a great job in getting the horses bought and prepped for breezing. Congrats also to
@StroudColeman
@crisfordracing
@HoStud
and
@GoffsUK
🎉🎩👍
It's another
#RoyalAscot
winner for
@FrankieDettori
as A'ALI powers clear to win the Norfolk Stakes for
@crisfordracing
!
📽️
@AtTheRaces
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A thread on the
@jockeyclub
proposal to limit stallion book numbers to 140. Overarching everything is something that must be understood....As we have a closed stud book, once we reach a point where inbreeding becomes an issue to the breed its too late to do anything. Its over.
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One of the goals I have when buying yearlings is to buy shape similarity. The idea is by reducing the variability (eg. buy one type), and incrementally learning of errors, it increases the chance of buying a good horse.
G2SW Malavath (L) - Lot 42
@Goffs1866
Dubai Breeze Up (R)
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Nice colt by Profitable bought with
@starbloodstock
for the breeze ups next year. Looks a rocket.
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New photo of the Siyouni colt out of Marsh Hawk bought with
@longwaystables
@sazoconnell
with
@starbloodstock
. Heads to the
@BrzUps
in June. He is what he looks....rapid.
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A good day racing
@BreedersCup
with the highlight watching Malavath, a filly we bought for just £29,000, line up as a 3yo in the Mile and run a gallant 5th. Hopefully more to come from her as she looked outstanding on the day.
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Q: What is your "ideal racehorse" to look at? The one that you love the shape of and try to find at yearling sales?
A: This 👇
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A patience game
@keenelandsales
but managed to snag this sharp looking filly by Mizzen Mast for Blackbriar Racing for just $11k. A May born filly that’s out of a SW and a full to a SW and her 2yo half sister is stakes placed.
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Imagine being the manager
@SkyRacingAU
and letting real talent like
@LizzieJelfs
and
@TonyBrassel
find their way out the gate, but having some absolute C grade oxygen thieves stay on the payroll. Unreal.
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Good day at the office
@inglis_sales
with four purchases. A Farnan colt with
@suttonracingdom
, a Pierro colt with
@GaiWaterhouse1
and Adrian Bott, a King’s Legacy colt with
@FreedmanRacing
and a Super Seth colt with
@JohnOSheaRacing
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Ghaiyyath must be awfully efficient in terms of his biomechanics, cardiovascular and respiratory capacity to do what he does. That type of efficiency is generally heritable.
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Bought as a yearling with
@starbloodstock
for just £29,000
@GoffsUK
….sold as an
@BrzUps
2yo
@InfoArqana
to
@MERIDIAN7
,
@dredvers
,
@kellerbarbarab1
and
@everest_racing
. After a brilliant training job by
@GraffardRacing
she’s now under the ownership of
@MoyglareStud
👏 👏 👏
Offered by
@EcurieMonceaux
, the very well named 𝑴𝑨𝑳𝑨𝑽𝑨𝑻𝑯 🏔 adds another top to her name as she sells for €3,200,000 to
@MoyglareStud
at TheVentedElevage ❄️.
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Can you get me some time/sectional data on this please? Maybe some stride length/cadence also. Cheers.
@RowleyfileRRR
@TPDZone
@WillDuffGordon
@JJHeathview
@TimeformUSfigs
@Arioneo_off
@equinitytech
@Etrakka
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All the talk
@FasigTiptonCo
will rightly be on Songbird, but this mare may be the best physical at the sale - Nickname.
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A very well researched tome has arrived on my desk, just in time for the Christmas break. Some reading ahead. For those interested contact
@shigeru_hotta
It looks well worth the cost.
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Tend to keep photos of the ones I really like. SERGEI PROKOFIEV (Scat Daddy) as a yearling. Terrific cardio and DNA.
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Three colts heading out to
@curraghrace
for an easy canter. The
@YeomanstownStud
Dark Angel colt out of Jet Setting,
@HillnDaleFarm
Kantharos colt and the
@coolmorestud
Starspangledbanner colt. All three head to
@BrzUps
sales with
@starbloodstock
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Took photos of the "shortlist"
@GoffsUK
. Interested to see how there is a basic 'shape' that I like, but that some horses are more similar to one another than others.
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Still can’t believe that in this seemingly strong market
@Tattersalls1766
I was able to buy this absolute weapon for the
@BrzUps
sales next year. A Night of Thunder filly no less out of a full sister to the brilliantly fast July Stakes G1 placegetter Main Aim. 🚀
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Had to wait for her but as they say, buy the one you want not the one you’re left with. A beauty by
@DarleyStallions
Night of Thunder found
@Goffs1866
A bit partial having bought the stakes performed Lady Penelope last year who looked like this also.
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First set of works at a windy
@curraghrace
for the
@starbloodstock
2021 breeze up team. Judging by this work
@JuddmonteFarms
Arrogate might be missed as a sire. A
@keenelandsales
buy from
@DenaliStud
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Had to beat
@OracleBloodstck
to get this bull of a colt by
@LanesEndFarms
Accelerate, but he looked worth every penny. Heads over to Europe for the
@BrzUps
sales for
@starbloodstock
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Using
@DeepLabCut
& 'walk-with' videos to look at body dimensions/bone lengths/joint angles & what we see at the walk, & how that correlates to stride length/frequency at sub-maximal speeds (trot and canter)....let's see if what we think generates length/frequency, actually does.
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@Tattersalls1766
@EpsomRacecourse
@theTDN
@bloodstocknews
@GBRI_UK
@rpbloodstock
Mohaafeth....a panther....
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Happy 5 year anniversary to
@HRIRacing
@bkav2011
on the announcement that races in Ireland would have sectional timing by Jan 1 2017.
SIS still take the cash each year but never implemented part of the agreement in creating sectionals. What other business allows such ineptitude?
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A generalization, but racehorses that can lead/press pace in high class races tend to be better stallions. Why? Because to lead in those races requires biomechanical and cardiovascular efficiency and that efficiency is somewhat heritable.
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The smooth moving Golden Pal as a yearling
@TaylorMadeSales
@keenelandsales
. He is some rocket on a good turf surface....
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For the rest of the world wondering how Japanese stayers are on top of the world….read (translate) this thread 👇
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Absolute weapon to look at.
🌋 The brilliant Pinatubo, Shamardal’s three-time Group 1-winning son, looks a hugely exciting recruit to the
@DarleyStallions
Dalham Hall Stud ranks. His introductory fee has been set at £35,000 🔵
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Seven two-year-olds that were either bought for clients as yearlings to race/pinhook in Europe or bought as two-year-olds with Royal Ascot as the goal have been entered to run next week. Best of luck!
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Took a while but finally struck
@keenelandsales
with
@starbloodstock
for this jet by Speightstown out of a SW Pivotal mare from
@selectsalesagt
.
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Delighted to have found a nice staying filly
@BBAG_Sales
By Golden Horn out of a deep Euro family from top class breeders
@GestutFahrhof
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Found a gem to breeze next year with the lads
@tatts_ireland
Fast looking first foal colt by the underrated Dragon Pulse out of a half sister to G1 winning sprinter Caradak. Good buying at €8k!
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Its a fairly lengthy read at 50 pages, but if you are interested in "how" a horse goes quickly (or not), its worth downloading
@Arioneo_off
white paper on the subject. Full of interesting information -
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Happy to see Make Haste win first out for good friends
@NaasRacecourse
today. Bought
@Tattersalls1766
as a yearling. The daughter of
@DarleyStallions
Blue Point hopefully heads to Royal Ascot 🎩 Well done to
@DiegoDiasracing
for having her ready to show her ability first out
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A weapon of a Dandy Man colt bought
@Tattersalls1766
Somerville with
@starbloodstock
for the breeze ups next year.
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Two runners bought as yearlings with
@starbloodstock
and
@DiegoDiasracing
taking their chances
@Ascot
today. Make Haste (pic) in the Queen Mary and Brosay in the Windsor Castle. Only bought 10 for the partners so to have two lining up today is quite satisfying.
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@2yotipping
@mmsnippets
@bruceaslade
@GaiWaterhouse1
@coolmorestud
@CoolmoreAus
@TomMagnier
@Claudmill1
@CunninghamTbred
@ClarkeBstock
Black Caviar was long (~8.2m) with high frequency (peak 2.45 strides/sec) but she could cruise in a race at 8m/2.35, which 99.5% of horses can't live with. Winx was different. She had ~7m stride but she idled at 2.4 s/sec & could go to 2.7 and maintain near that for a long time.
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Just going through my database for our conformation model….anyone surprised this horse is unraced? 🫣 👇
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Got to admire the Japanese when it comes to understanding why an elite horse is what it is. An article on Contrail - In after work recovery, it takes an average of 11 minutes for a racehorse to reach a heart rate of 100 beats/min or less. Contrail takes 6
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Using
@Arioneo_off
….first horse, in relative terms, uses stride frequency (brown line) over stride length (green line) to generate speed. Just an average horse. Second horse, at about 45kph use of stride length to frequency inverts. Same peak speed. This is a stakes class filly
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Coronavirus moves pretty fast.....I'm old enough to remember when the British press got themselves bent out of shape over Cheltenham....
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Sprinters or stayers, it doesn't seem to matter for
@Ballydoyle
. The combined use of a crossover and tongue tie and it's known effect on run time to fatigue is an advantage they take nearly every time. Surprised others don't have it as standard gear also.
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Breeze morning
@curraghrace
for some of the breeze up group with
@starbloodstock
.
@DiegoDi41476096
sends up our
@JuddmonteFarms
Arrogate-Funny Moon colt on the 5f all weather. Great to have the opportunity to prepare these horses at the Curragh. They learn a lot, very quickly.
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A reminder….any process a buyer uses to select at a yearling sale should end up selecting “the most likely to happen” as it is a game of probability. Efforts to capture the elite outlier will send you broke as they don’t share enough characteristics common with all elite horses.
If you are lining up to buy one at the Classic sale today, don’t have sire envy and don’t fault judge.
Remember
Mr Brightside is by Bullbars.
Doriemus had a jowl the width of a ruler.
Elvstroem failed the vet.
I Wish I Win born with a crooked leg.
Brawny Spirit was a midget
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Notice the different colored wraps on the limbs. This is so the trainer can visually see changes in stride as the horse works. Of course IMUs are significantly more accurate and easily applied.
@InfoArqana
@EcurieMonceaux
August yearling sale graduate Shin Emperor gets a first feel of the French turf track in
@fgchantilly
ahead of his tilt at
@francegalop
#QPAT
son of
@AgaKhanStuds
Siyouni & full to
@coolmorestud
Sottsass
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Here is the relative risk ratio for US racetrack fatalities:
RR = 1 means that track does not affect outcome
RR < 1 means that risk of fatality is decreased by the track, so a "protective factor"
RR > 1 means that the risk of fatality is increased by the track, so a "risk factor"
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@keenelandsales
Just looking at horses
@FourStarSales
and who should be leading them but an
@nmrhof
and Triple Crown winning jockey. Can’t find good help! 😂👇
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Before the North American breeder sacrificed stride efficiency for stride length and bred a taller,longer, leggier (and less sound) horse...there was this guy...
Northern Dancer in the Florida Derby winner's enclosure
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Had a good visit to
@coolmoreamerica
this morning. Maximum Security is a much better looking horse than I was expecting to see. Not too big, plenty of muscle and well balanced. Terrific walk to him. Should suit an awful lot of mares physically. Thanks
@MwAdrian
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If you listen between me saying "this is where I need to convince you...", you'll hear
@starbloodstock
say "you've got no chance...."
Nunthorpe winner now....the ribbing will last a lifetime...
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If there’s ever a time that
@keenelandsales
@FasigTiptonCo
and
@CBAKy
needed to jointly come out with an “inspection card” app that buyers can download and fill out their inspection requests without touching a pen or card at a barn, and consignors can mange inspections, now is it
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This is the sort of data we all need to see at breeze up sales 👏
MC THOROUGHBRED DATA IS PUBLIC
Well done
@McThoroughbreds
👏 Much success this afternoon 🤞
MP for more info on the lots ✉️
#osarus
#breezeup
#horsedatascience
@OsarusSales
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Midway through the last day
@keenelandsales
and managed to buy this weapon by first season sire Army Mule for the
@BrzUps
next year with
@starbloodstock
Looking forward to
@FellowesRacing
asking….”Who is this Army Mule???” 😂
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A new paper on mtDNA and how it relates to Thoroughbred families. Turns out when you us DNA to trace mares back to the start of the Stud Book, there are actually a lot of "families" we think are distinct, that actually come from the same founder mare -
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Rising 2yo colts by
@HillnDaleFarm
Kantharos and
@JuddmonteFarms
Arrogate on the sand gallop this morning at the Curragh.
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