Brian Taylor
@bdtaylor_SU
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Professor @SUPoliSci and Director of @SUMoynihanInst @MaxwellSU . New book: Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction.
Syracuse, NY
Joined July 2017
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Watching the economic news out of Russia as sanctions hit, I was reminded of the programmatic statement Putin made 22 years ago on his first day in office. It was called "Russia on the Eve of the Millennium." This is what he promised Russians. A short thread of quotes: 1/7
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The US economy in nominal terms is 14X as large as Russia's. US assistance to Ukraine equals .3% of US GDP. The economy of New York state alone is as large as Russia's. Yet Vance thinks helping Ukraine fight off a genocidal war of recolonization is somehow beyond our means.
He does not think the United States is capable of assisting multiple allies at one time because "we don't make enough munitions."
That's it. That's the argument. We don't make enough artillery shells and, apparently, he doesn't think we can possibly make more so🤷♂️
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"History shows conclusively that all dictatorships and authoritarian systems of government are transient. Only democratic systems are enduring." 5/7
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"Without consistent integration of Russia's economy into global economic structures we simply will not be able to rise to the levels of economic and social progress that have been achieved by advanced countries." 7/7
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"People want stability, certainty, the ability to plan for the future - their own and their children's - not for a month, but for years, decades. They want to work in conditions of peace, security, and a firm legal order." 2/7
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"Patriotism is the desire to make one's country more beautiful, richer, stronger, happier. When these feelings are free from national conceit and imperial ambition, there is nothing reprehensible or small-minded about them." 3/7
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"In today's world, a country's power is manifested not so much in its military might as in its ability to lead in the creation and application of advanced technology, ensuring a high level of prosperity for its people." 4/7
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"We will continue to work to create an attractive investment climate for foreign investors. I will tell you frankly, without foreign capital, the country will take a long and difficult time to move up... We must do everything to make foreign capital come to our country." 6/7
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In 2007 Time named Putin its "Person of the Year." Here is his answer to the question, "Do you think Ukraine will ever again become part of Russia?"
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This tweet from
@LaSeletzky
very succinctly captures my problem w/ the headline, for those who have asked. 👇
@bdtaylor_SU
@WriterWarrior
If a statement must be followed by the qualifier “Russia says,” it should be neither the headline nor framing 🤦🏽♀️
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Given how much more repressive Putin's Russia 2024 is compared to Gorbachev's 1989 USSR, I'm going to say that Putin's alleged order to the FSB and the police to not let Navalny's funeral turn into a repeat of the Sakharov funeral failed decisively.
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A few resources on
#Navalny
, especially for those who don’t closely follow Russian politics. All in English. 🧵
1 of my favorite portraits of Navalny is actually about his equally impressive wife, Yulia Navalnaya. By
@juliaioffe
. 1/8
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Email from a Russian ex-friend today. In 90s/early 00s he was smart, funny, enjoyable. He became an ardent Putinist & professional regime propagandist. Email subject: “wars of necessity.” I didn’t even read it. But I do wonder what the hell happened to him, and it makes me sad.
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How badly did Putin mismanage arguably Russia’s most important foreign relationship? This badly. 👇
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Interesting long read on “how Putin came to hate Ukraine” by Ilya Zhegulev. Based on insider interviews. Claims that decision for war was taken in Feb-Mar 2021. “Last straw” – closing of Medvedchuk’s TV channels. 1/4
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Simonyan saying the quiet part out loud again: “All our hope is on a famine.”
"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," - said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum.
#StopRussia
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Easy for her to say, no one's eaten her cat.
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New article w/
@ReneedeNevers
. BLUF: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t just another land grab. It’s an attempt to recolonize lost empire, and threatens to return us to the age of conquest. A thread: 1/8
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The odd thing about the “we shouldn’t humiliate Putin” takes is that Putin already thinks all sorts of random things were efforts to humiliate him:
- Beslan
- Orange Revolution
- Arab Spring
- Euromaidan Revolution
- women in prominent 🇷🇺 policy posts under Obama
- Etc.
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Wow, NYT Sunday Opinion has a whole page of columns on 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war, let's see which experts they turned to.
Ah, yes, David Brooks, Maureen Dowd, and Ross Douthat. 🙄🤬
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Navalny is not only the star of an Oscar-winning documentary, he & his team make amazing exposes about Putin's corrupt & murderous regime. Here's 1 about Putin's palace:
& here's 1 about how Putin tried to kill Navalny:
#FreeNavalny
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Excellent & timely from my colleague
@TheOpenMike
.
"If Putin is not defeated on the battlefield now, it will cost the US far more to deter & defend against future Russian aggression."
Don’t stop now. US aid to Ukraine continues to be a wise investment.
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Statement of Maj-Gen Popov, removed as commander of 58th Army in Zaporizhzhia, is really something. Coming on heels of Prigozhin mutiny, suggests growing civil-military relations problems. Key part of text at
@the_ins_ru
, I'll put a few quotes in 🧵:
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Every time I go on YouTube to watch a video related to Ukraine the algorithm recommends I watch a 7 year old video called "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer." And I die a little inside.
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2 general & persistent points about Russia & terrorist attacks - a short 🧵:
1) Putin routinely blames outsiders (esp the US) for terrorist attacks caused by internal problems. 1/6
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The “major war” had already started. If you mean a Russian attack on NATO, this is almost certainly incorrect, not “probably correct.”
To clarify on the Starlink issue: the Ukrainians THOUGHT coverage was enabled all the way to Crimea, but it was not. They asked Musk to enable it for their drone sub attack on the Russian fleet. Musk did not enable it, because he thought, probably correctly, that would cause a
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I wrote a thing. A short🧵follows.
Most agree that Putin doesn’t currently face the threat of a coup or revolution. I ask a different Q: what happens if Putin leaves office unexpectedly, due to death or illness for example? 1/6
via
@ForeignAffairs
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"The 🇷🇺 military is poorly designed for a sustained occupation, or a grinding war of attrition, which is exactly the conflict it has found itself in. The 🇷🇺 military doesn’t have the numbers available to easily adjust."
key from
@KofmanMichael
&
@RALee85
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Peter the Great: Opened a window to Europe
Putin: Closed the window to Europe
Aired it out, that's enough.
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In light of the Russian government bans on
@shaunwalker7
and
@MarkGaleotti
, I would recommend Walker's "The Long Hangover: Putin's New Russia and the Ghosts of the Past" and the following books by Galeotti: 🧵1/285
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Putin in a.m.: This is treason.
Peskov in p.m.: No charges against Wagner troops or Prigozhin, who will go to Belarus.
Meanwhile, peacefully speaking out for democracy & against the war can get you 25 years (
@vkaramurza
), 8+ years (
@IlyaYashin
), 7+ years (
@LChanysheva
), etc.
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Reminder:
Holding a piece of paper with the word "peace" on it - discrediting the army.
Calling the country's top military leadership "scum," "bitches," and "dickheads," accusing them of corruption & undermining the war effort - NOT discrediting the army.
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1 of best analysts of 🇷🇺 pols: Elites don't support Putin, w/ rare exceptions. People in & around power are in shock. No one was ready for war. They didn't believe it could happen. None of them will go against Putin, of course, but idea that boss went crazy not just liberals now.
На начало года Путин оказался перед выбором: либо Украина, либо частичная сделка с США (ответные предложения Вашингтона).Получить и то, и другое,он уже не мог и выбрал то, что ему показалось притягательней, но что делает Россию стратегически более уязвимой
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@shaunwalker7
I honestly didn’t understand why Nadezhdin has put himself through this for years. I guess he gets paid to be the token liberal whipping boy? But today it’s good he persevered.
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My partner of 25+ years confessed she thinks khachapuri is just "okay" and my world is crumbling.
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GRU officers complain to Putin about the "personal tragedy" for their families of being tossed out of Europe after the invasion of 🇺🇦 - trouble w/ schools, housing, jobs for spouses. 🐊😭
Esp. liked this wedding photo of 1 🇷🇺 spy & his wife.
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@mfa_russia
@RusEmbUSA
@RussianEmbassy
@RussianEmbassyC
@RusEmbAU
@RusMission_EU
@RF_OSCE
@RusEmbIndia
@EmbassyofRussia
@mission_russian
@RussiaUN
Ukrainian polls "How do you feel about Russians?" 2008-2022
Blue=good
Orange=bad
#чтослучилось
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Russian FSB accuses military of only telling the boss what he wants to hear.
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Since this thread took off, adding a link to the original in Russian. If someone has an English copy, please put in comments.
Also, #НетВойне
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I think the Carlson/Putin interview is further evidence that Putin often says exactly what he thinks, and isn’t always calculating the impact of his statements for maximum political benefit. Seva captures it nicely here:
Carlson: what caused the war and why was it NATO?
Putin: In 862 the people of Novgorod invited a Varangian prince….
C: and what about NATO? please say Nato
P: Let us recall Yaroslav the Wise, who once had a dream about a Ukrainian witch….
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TFW you, a supposed Russia expert, has never heard of some of the places where protests took place today. The spread of protests most striking and unexpected result for me from today. 112 cities. Info from
@OvdInfo
&
@bbcrussian
#Navalny
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Russian Politics: A Very Short Introduction coming to you very shortly (~3 mos.)
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So glad to see that
@nytimes
has learned nothing & is sticking with “both sides “ framing even though story states there is “no evidence“ for 1 of the “sides.”
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Genius. Reminds me of a 2001 quote by a former Putin aide: "Putin is no enemy of free speech. He simply finds absurd the idea that somebody has the right to criticize him publicly."
Konstantin Abramov, director of state pollster VTsIOM, defended "filtering information” at Russia's Online Safety forum Monday, saying it would give Russians more clarity on the Kremlin’s "military operation" in Ukraine.
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Another day of protests on Nevsky Prospect in Putin’s hometown of Saint Petersburg.
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I have been working on a little – one might even say very little – thing for the last several years. It’s now in production and will be out in the fall. More to come.
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Brave courtroom speech from
@IlyaYashin
:
"Looking at the consequences of this monstrous war, you yourself probably already realize what a grave mistake you made on February 24.. I urge you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, to stop this madness immediately."
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Is the largest country in the world “cornered?” A short debate. P.S. 👀 ratio
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@mkraju
Smith in 2010 on the values his parents instilled in him growing up:
“They pay their taxes, follow the rules and they expect their public officials to do the same.”
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The hearings today bring to mind the time that Howard Baker argued that the Watergate break-in was a false flag operation conducted by the DNC itself. Good times.
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Consistent w/ others, says Putin didn’t consult many people, & that Yuri Kovalchuk was v influential during pandemic. Putin thought regime change in Kyiv would be easy. “Kovalchuk convinced him that the West is weak; Medvedchuk convinced him that Ukraine is weak & loyal.” 2/4
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I wonder what happened in 2016 to cause this ⬆️ in poli sci majors, esp. among women? 🤔
Chart of the Month: Who is driving the rise in political science degree completions? Women.
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2) Russian security & law enforcement often fail to do the things they are supposed to do according to the law – fight crime & terrorism, protect property rights, etc. Instead, they focus on special tasks for the authorities, such as building a regime of repression. 4/6
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I wrote 13 years ago: “Power ministry personnel are more oriented toward serving their own personal interests or those of the powers that be than those of society as a whole; predation and repression dominate over protection in terms of law enforcement behavior and norms.” 5/6
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"Mr. Putin knows what happened, or he can find out, and if he continues to hide behind glaringly phony denials and ridiculous accusations, he only strengthens the suspicion that this was a deliberate, state-sanctioned hit."
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Putin believed for years that US controlled Ukraine. Claims Shoigu was supportive of invasion but “many siloviki were opposed” (doesn’t say who). Concludes by claiming most of elite is opposed, & alleges that Kiriyenko uses FSB to pressure people who want to leave to stay. 3/4
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With a paper due next week, reminding my students to use active voice. Be precise about who did what.
h/t to
@emilythorson
for the "character/action" language.
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The whole interview bears close reading, but want to emphasize this point in particular from
@KofmanMichael
.
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24 years ago, in Sept. 1999, there were 4 apartment bombings in 🇷🇺. The official version blamed Chechens. Many believe it was an FSB conspiracy to bring Putin to power. This 🧵 is about a new article w/ a 3rd version. 1/11
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Some peeps: 🇺🇦 should just give 🇷🇺 a little territory. Then there’d be ☮️.
🇷🇺 officials: No thanks, 🇺🇦 isn’t real, all its territory is disputed.
A new idea for Ukraine has emerged from the North Atlantic Alliance office: Ukraine will be able to join NATO if it gives up the disputed territories.
It does look like an interesting idea. The only problem is that all of – supposedly – their territories are highly disputable.
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Since the Carlson-Putin interview seems to really be happening.
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Some professional news.
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From my 2011 book "State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing & Coercion after Communism." The basic argument is that a disregard for the way state officials behave towards citizens had a negative impact on state capacity. Sadly, nothing has changed. 6/6
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Very convincing investigation with multiple types of evidence. A massive Russian war crime.
"A dam in Ukraine was designed to withstand almost any attack imaginable — from the outside. The evidence suggests Russia blew it up from within."
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Kremlin propagandist Simonyan now thinks attacking hospitals is unacceptable.
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Great story by
@HenryJFoy
. Sometimes cliches are true.
Senior Kremlin official: “You cannot forget that Putin learnt about wider society as an officer of the KGB. He is a product of that system, and deep down will always think like that system does.”
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Contrast between those following 🇷🇺 troop movements closely & those following 🇷🇺 media closely is notable.
@KofmanMichael
&
@MassDara
talk of "large-scale" op & "growing dread,"
@ArkadyOstrovsky
&
@AlexKokcharov
don't see media "preparation for war" or anti-🇺🇦 info campaign.
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My new article in
@ForeignAffairs
on “Putin’s Rules of the Game.” I look at Putin’s 2020, esp. his new constitution, and what it means for Russian politics and US-Russian relations. A thread. 1/7
via
@ForeignAffairs
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"An excellent place to learn more about the Russian leader is Syracuse University Professor Brian D. Taylor’s The Code of Putinism, which explains the worldview of Putin & his closest supporters."
Thanks Stuart Anderson &
@Forbes
. Quite a list to be on!
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I used to have a system of printing out articles to read, stacking them in piles, & not reading them.
Now I save PDFs to my computer in thematic folders and don't read them. Progress.
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Navalny was sent to this very remote and harsh prison camp for the crime of wanting Russia to be free. Previously the Russian state tried to kill him with the banned nerve agent Novichok for the same crime.
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"Today, the Secretary of State determined that the Government of the Russian Federation has used a chemical weapons against its own nationals, in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention.”
More details from
@StateDept
on the state laboratories and research facilities being targeted under the CBW Act:
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A lot of detail about 2014, Minsk Agreements, shattered hopes of Putin to get Zelensky to agree to Russian interpretation of Minsk. Also some intriguing little tidbits, such as an alleged SVOP (Karaganov & Lukyanov shop) closed meeting a week before invasion. 4/4
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Putin would look unbelievably weak if he removed Shoigu and/or Gerasimov after this, seemingly caving to an armed mutiny by a private army. It would IMO greatly increase the chances that members of the elite start looking for post-Putin options.
MOD wants to dissolve Wagner. Wagner goes to Moscow. Wagner stops 200 or so km short of Moscow. Prigozhin says it's because he doesn't want to spill Russia blood.
Likely explanation: he was given exclusive guarantees and protection from Putin and/or promise to change smth in MOD
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He did this most famously with respect to Beslan in 2004, when he said that “others” help the terrorists because they would like to “tear off a juicy piece” of Russia. 2/6
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Dystopian Moscow. Cops beating a protestor in the most famous kids store in the city (which happens to be across street from FSB Lubyanka HQ).
В Москве протестующего избили при задержании в Центральном Детском Универмаге на глазах у детей.
Видео: Avtozak LIVE
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.
@russianforces
& other nuke experts: This is from a 2017
@UCSUSA
Issue Brief. Is this still your understanding of 🇷🇺 nuclear launch procedures?
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Nice little story about how when Putin meets factory workers they are carefully vetted by FSB, isolated for 2 weeks (even though Putin reportedly has been vaccinated), and most of the "workers" who ask questions are local officials dressed up as workers.
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Putin even earlier, in Nov. 2000: “Chechnya should never be used by anyone as a springboard for an attack on 🇷🇺, & should not be allowed to sink the country into a bloody swamp, as our geopolitical adversaries dream of doing.” 3/6
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💯
"In addition to power, Putin has purpose. He is highly motivated by a set of orthodox, illiberal, antidemocratic, anti-Western ideas. American analysts often imagine that Putin is a transactional leader... That judgment is wrong."
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Moscow police making sure that the "solitary pickets" are at least 50 meters apart; otherwise it would be an unsanctioned rally. Scenes from protest against arrest of journalist Ivan Golunov. The absurdities of a disordered police state.
Полиция измеряет расстояние между людьми, стоящими в одиночных пикетах.
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There will be time for analysis later. Now I would like to say that this is a stupid and criminal war. #нетвойне
#StandWithUkraine
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Russia built some of the world’s fanciest malls over the past 2 decades. Now people queue for rubles, anticipating a collapse of the ruble tomorrow. #нетвойне
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If: a) you're at
#ISA2024
; b) care about 🇷🇺 foreign policy; c) awake at 8:15 Fri; d) want to hear someone with a sore throat present using a combo of interpretive dance & a voice that is part frog, part Barry White, I've got the panel for you.
@NKuhrt
@kath_stoner
@david_g_lewis
.
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It would set a terrible precedent if Ukraine were pushed to give up land. Borders aren't perfect. But large wars of territorial conquest are extremely rare today and viewed with opprobrium by most of the world’s states. Properly so. 8/8
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This wall in Saint Petersburg is getting quite the workout today.
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It would sure be a shame if Russian soldiers sitting in trenches in Ukraine saw these photos unearthed by
@teamnavalny
of the lifestyle of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov (arrested today for bribery) & his wife.
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The 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 War is different. It is a war of recolonization by the former imperial power. A critical feature of this case is that Ukraine is a full-fledged member of the UN whose 1991 borders were explicitly affirmed by Russia on no fewer than four occasions before 2014. 6/8
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