Brian Fremeau
@bcfremeau
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College football possession efficiency and data visualization enthusiast
South Bend, IN
Joined July 2009
Happy New Year! .FEI ratings and team/game/possession data efficiency pages back to 2007 are all updated on the site. Home index page now includes direct links to 650+ pages of possession, drive, game, unit, and team information, with more to come:
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There have been 23 CFP games played to date. Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State have won 20 of them.
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Tulsa is wild. Since 2007 in all FBS games almost 68,000 touchdowns have been scored, and there have been only 91 instances of a point after or two point conversion attempt being returned for a two point defensive score. Tulsa was involved in NINE of them.
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Five toughest schedules played to date per FEI:.1. Texas A&M.2. Tennessee.3. Vanderbilt.4. BYU.5. Arizona St. Five toughest schedules remaining per FEI:.1. Michigan.2. Georgia.3. Rutgers.4. Maryland.5. Purdue.
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Total point differential in games vs current CFP top 25 teams:. 75 Notre Dame. 29 Georgia, Clemson. 27 UCF, Auburn. 22 Penn St. 18 Oklahoma, Miami, Iowa. 14 Alabama. 11 Iowa St. 9 Wisconsin. 7 Arizona. 6 TCU. 3 Washington St, Troy.
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I know there’s a lot going on right now, but I just realized Bowling Green punted from the opponent 30-yard line on Friday.
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Auburn played four games against FEI top-5 opponents and went 2-2. Tigers had No.1 SOS. Alabama played one game vs top-5 opponent and went 0-1. Alabama had No.60 SOS. We debate conferences often, but conferences themselves can have major imbalances within conf and division.
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Iowa just had an 11-play drive that didn’t reach midfield. Then they punted and recovered a muffed punt.
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Will post full FEI ratings (with no preseason projection weights) at Football Outsiders this week, but here’s the top 5 post bowls:. 1. Alabama .2. BYU.3. Ohio State.4. Clemson.5. Oklahoma.
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There were only 14 possessions in yesterday's Georgia Tech vs Florida State game (seven for each team), fewer than in any FBS game played since November 28, 2020.
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Most accomplished (wins over what an average FBS team would project to have against its schedule played to date) through Week 9, per FEI ratings: . 4.3 BYU . 4.2 Oregon. 4.0 Penn St. 3.9 Miami. 3.9 Texas A&M. 3.8 Kansas St. 3.8 Alabama . 3.7 Georgia . 3.4 Iowa St. 3.3 Indiana.
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Arizona State punted with 9:57 left in the Las Vegas Bowl last night, trailing 20-13, and didn't get the ball back. Wisconsin ran out the clock with a 18-play, 90-yard drive that ended at the ASU 7-yard line.
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Three teams have not trailed by more than a single score (more than 8 points) at any point this season:. Alabama.North Texas.Notre Dame.
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Behold the 2016 college football 128-team playoff bracket, with 126 games already in the books:
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Notre Dame and Clemson had four common opponents this year (and ND vs Georgia in the CFP makes five). Indiana and Penn State had five common opponents. Conferences are just scheduling arrangements between independents.
James Franklin: "I think everyone should be in a conference.". Franklin was talking about the inconsistencies in college football, notes SEC playing eight games versus the Big 10 playing nine. Wants more consistency across the sport.
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Notre Dame had six total possessions against Navy. Four in the first half, two in the second half.
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Notre Dame needs one of the dark blue scenarios to happen to have a chance
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Sunset over Mount Vesuvius was a big reason the 12-team Roman Gladiator Playoff expansion proposal never happened.
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The current FEI gap between the Big Three and the field is so large that an imaginary team with the "best other offense" combined with the "best other defense" would also not measure up.
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I want to live in a world where more than a few games on everybody’s schedule “count” because we decided to draw a line at 25 rather than discuss the results of every game.
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The CFP committee has a Group of 5 ranking ceiling. That's one problem, but another is that they don't seem to apply the same head-to-head or schedule strength logic to P5 and G5 teams.
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Wins Above Average through Week 11 (comparing actual wins to expected wins an average team would have against the same schedule) per FEI:. 5.71 Georgia. 5.16 ND. 4.34 Ohio St. 4.31 Michigan. 4.29 Oklahoma St. 4.26 Alabama. 4.16 Michigan St. 4.13 Ole Miss. 4.08 Wake. 3.89 Oregon.
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Eleven college football seasons and more than 187,000 offensive drives summarized in three charts. Supporting data here:
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Six teams played 5 games vs @CFBPlayoff top 25:.(3-2) Notre Dame.(1-4) South Carolina.(0-5) Minnesota.(0-5) Iowa St.(0-5) Penn St.(0-5) SMU.
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FCS teams won 5 of 150 games against FBS teams in 2019 and 2020. They have won 6 of 39 games so far in 2021.
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#1 in FEI has won the national championship in 7/17 seasons since 2007. #1 in DFEI has won the national championship in 10/17 seasons since 2007.
FEI ratings updated through Week 20 (CFP semifinals): Ohio State #1 (and ND #2) in FEI, overall possession efficiency, and net drive success rate. Notre Dame #1 (and OSU #2) in defensive FEI, defensive possession efficiency, and net defensive success rate
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Schedule strength rankings (from elite team perspective based on FEI ratings) through championship week games: .1. Auburn.2. TCU.3. Florida St.4. Maryland.5. Georgia Tech. SOS ratings for all 130 teams:
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FEI ratings through Week 8 if all preseason projection data was removed from the formula:. 1. UGA.2. Bama.3. Michigan.4. Ohio St.5. Wake.6. Iowa St.7. Ole Miss.8. Cinci.9. Florida.10. Pitt.11. Okla St.12. ND.13. Iowa.14. Kentucky.15. Texas. 33. OKLAHOMA.
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For everyone that says the whole college football season IS the playoff, behold your bracket: http://t.co/3778ciQdoX
http://t.co/QYuZ24K0Xz.
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Rose Bowl is tied 45-45 and headed to overtime. The last time Oklahoma lost a game in which Sooners scored 40+ points was 11 years ago tonight, in overtime, against Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl.
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Possession success rate leaders (scores on offense, stops on defense; FBS games, non-garbage drives) through Week 6: . 1. Alabama (81.9%).2. Georgia (73.9%).3. UCF (73.3%).4. Michigan (68.5%).5. NC State (67.5%).
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Everybody has to start somewhere. 2024 FEI preseason projections:
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Just thinking about this as the reason the committee won’t be debating Cincinnati in/out tonight. This!
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Most accomplished (wins over what an average FBS team would project to have against its schedule played to date) through Week 7, per FEI ratings: . 3.3 Oregon. 3.1 BYU. 2.9 Penn St. 2.9 Alabama. 2.8 Georgia. 2.7 Texas. 2.7 Pittsburgh. 2.6 Iowa St. 2.5 Kansas St. 2.4 LSU.
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Made a punt chart, not for deciding *whether* to punt from different areas of the field, but to show what happens when you do.
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Each of the last five national champions finished the season at least +2.0 in net points per drive. Among the 2023 playoff field, only Michigan has cleared that threshold.
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Five toughest schedules played to date per FEI:.1. BYU.2. Ole Miss.3. ASU.4. Tennessee.5. Texas A&M. Five toughest schedules remaining per FEI:.1. Miss St.2. Nebraska.3. Maryland.4. Auburn.5. Michigan.
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While technically still possible, the Hawkeyes' 25 points per game threshold is effectively out of reach. But I think Iowa is doing something much more statistically compelling, and it's more Iowa than I could have ever imagined possible.
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CHART: Points Per Drive by Starting Field Position (2007-2020)
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They weren't all non-conf games, but FSU in 2013 was favored by 34 vs Wake, 37.5 vs Syracuse, and 58.5 vs Idaho for a total of 96 over two games and 130 points over three games. The Seminoles covered in all three, winning by a combined score of 198-20.
Michigan was -50 vs. Hawaii last weekend. They are -46 vs. UConn this weekend. Any chance a cumulative -96 over 2 weeks is some kind of record? How about throwing in -31 vs. CSU in week-1 for a smooth -128, 3-game non-conf record?.
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Wins Above Average (comparing actual wins to expected wins an average team would have against the same schedule) per FEI:. 5.97 Georgia. 5.42 ND. 4.99 Alabama. 4.86 Ohio St. 4.79 Oklahoma St. 4.52 Michigan. 4.33 Oklahoma. 4.33 Ole Miss. 4.13 Cincinnati. 4.07 Michigan St.
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Update the graphic, WVU and Houston now have the best series history in college football.
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We are so back. F+ ratings (combining FEI and SP+) projections are live:
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Final F+ Ratings updated at @fboutsiders: Overall.1. Alabama.2. BYU.3. Clemson.4. Ohio St.5. Oklahoma. Offense.1. Alabama.2. Ohio St.3. BYU.4. North Carolina.5. Florida. Defense.1. Northwestern.2. Georgia.3. Cincinnati.4. Iowa.5. Wisconsin.
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Wins above what an average team would expect to have against its schedule to date, through Week 12: . 6.78 Washington. 5.95 Texas. 5.94 Ohio St. 5.84 Georgia. 5.71 Florida St. 5.58 Alabama. 5.52 Michigan. 5.10 Louisville. 4.95 Oregon. 4.79 Missouri.
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FEI number 1, 3, 4, and 5 advance to the semifinals. (2 lost to 1).
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Schedule strength rank (to date) for undefeated FBS teams:.82. Miami.92. Wisconsin.93. Alabama.116. UCF. FEI ratings updated through 11/18 games:
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Wins above average through Week 8, per FEI, comparing actual wins to the expected wins an average team would have against the same schedule to date:. 3.7 Georgia. 3.6 Oklahoma. 3.6 Michigan. 3.5 ND. 3.5 Alabama. 3.4 Wake Forest. 3.3 Mich St. 3.3 Okla St. 2.9 Ole Miss. 2.7 Cinci.
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130 team playoff, one day only, and it’s just a 2-point conversion tournament.
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Best overall opponent-adjusted single game performances to date, per FEI:. 1. Georgia 49, Oregon 3.2. Texas 49, Oklahoma 0.3. Kansas St 48, Oklahoma St 0. Game Ratings for every team:.
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In consecutive weeks from November 2 through December 7, FSU covered in every game with the following lines:. -21.0.-34.0.-37.5.-58.5.-28.0.-30.0. and won those games by a combined score of 321-48.
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I'm still struck by BYU's ranking more than anything. Relative to loss column tiers, they appear to respect what BYU has done more than they respect what Cincinnati has done.
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Notre Dame's last five wins:.24-17.21-17.24-17.24-16.22-17.
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I’ve said this before, but this is the kind of data visualization that I think would be helpful in a *discussion* of playoff candidates for selection and seeding.
Here are the resumes for the top 6 teams based on these composite ratings. FSU had the lowest strength of schedule, but it was in the same neighborhood as #1 Michigan's schedule. FSU also managed to avoid any of those big red Xs.
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The four games played to date between teams with 10+ FBS wins:.ND at Clemson.ND at Temple.Michigan St at Ohio St.ND at Stanford.
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Wins Above Average through Week 10 (comparing actual wins to expected wins an average team would have against the same schedule) per FEI:. 4.87 Georgia. 4.45 ND. 4.13 Bama. 4.01 Mich St. 3.98 Okla St. 3.95 Oklahoma. 3.71 Ohio St. 3.58 Michigan. 3.40 Oregon. 3.33 Wake. 3.32 Cincy.
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Confession: One of the main reasons I started working with college football stats in the first place was because I couldn’t “watch [all] the games, nerd” and I found that my eyes deceived me often when I did “watch the games, nerd.”.
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Most teams still ain't played nobody. 78% of FBS teams have a tougher remaining regular season schedule than they have played to date. 32 teams (including 10 that are currently undefeated) have a remaining schedule at least twice as tough as the schedule they've played to date.
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I sincerely hope the college football data community that didn’t really exist before this app, and found its hive in this app, continues to exist (and thrives) after this app.
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Wins above what an average team would expect to have against its schedule through championship weekend, per FEI ratings:. 8.43 Washington. 7.41 Texas. 7.37 Alabama. 7.22 Florida State. 7.01 Michigan. 6.46 Georgia. 5.80 Ohio State.
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Choose Your Own Championship Week Adventure.32 possible outcome combinations in the P5 title games, 99% likelihood we'll have one of 16 scenarios, and the most likely options will make the selection committee sweat.(large format graphic here:
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I'M VERY UPSET. that teams 5-25 are organized by row and not by column in this graphic
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Tonight is the 10-year anniversary of the USC/Texas Rose Bowl. I don't think any game played since has topped it.
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Two wins vs CFP top 25 (and wins vs CFP top 10):.Baylor.Georgia (1).LSU (1).Memphis.Michigan.Ohio St.Penn St.
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The 12-team playoff is all about access… for superteams with mulligans.
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With New Mexico State's win over Valparaiso, FBS teams officially went 112-8 (93.3%) against FCS opponents this season, with an average final score of 44-14.
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If we can agree on the question the committee is trying to answer, a formula can produce a playoff field more effectively and consistently. I don’t think we can agree on the question, however.
We spend a lot of time arguing about who should get in the playoff. But, IMO, it's a problem with an obvious solution. Strength of Record. That's it. No committee. This is just the answer. These teams have accomplished the most, given the schedule they've faced.
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@SickosCommittee And there was *still* an interception return TD to that right field end zone because BALL DONT LIE.
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F+ Ratings (combining FEI and SP+) updated through Week 8: Michigan has broken contain.
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Now each of the last six.
Each of the last five national champions finished the season at least +2.0 in net points per drive. Among the 2023 playoff field, only Michigan has cleared that threshold.
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Need the Iowa football punt version of this animation.
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Every FBS team is playing this week against another FBS team, 65 games between 130 teams. That has never happened since at least 2007, if not ever.
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90th+ percentile opp-adjusted single game ratings in 2023 (i.e. how often did you play like an elite team relative to the competition you faced):.8 - Michigan.7 - Ohio St, Oregon.6 - Penn St.5 - Florida St, Georgia, LSU, Washington.4 - Alabama, Louisville, Notre Dame, Oklahoma.
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Wins more than an average team would be expected to have against the schedule played to date, per FEI:. 3.98 Georgia. 3.50 Oklahoma. 3.36 Michigan State. 3.34 Oklahoma State. 3.30 Michigan. 2.95 Notre Dame. 2.86 Iowa. 2.72 Alabama. 2.43 Wake Forest. 2.41 Cincinnati.
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PUNT CHART #Araiza4Heisman . Through Week 10, @AztecFB punter Matt Araiza has recorded four of the seven largest field flip punts in FBS this season and is on pace to break the NCAA net punting record
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Everybody starts somewhere. 2023 PFEI Preseason Projections:
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Teams that never trailed by three scores (17+ pts) this season in FBS games:. Alabama (12-0).Clemson (12-0).ND (12-0).Fresno St (10-2).Utah St (9-2)*.Wash St (9-2).UW (9-3).N Texas (8-3).WVU (7-3).Iowa (7-4).Mich St (7-5).EMU (6-5).SDSU (6-5). *Never trailed by two scores.
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Percent likelihood to win out the regular season, per FEI (undefeated teams, and one-loss P5s):. 85% Georgia.58% Alabama.48% Cincinnati.38% UTSA.29% Notre Dame.27% Ohio St.24% Michigan.21% Oklahoma St.20% Wake Forest.13% Baylor.13% Oregon.11% Oklahoma.5% Michigan St.
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In terms of opponent-adjusted per possession efficiency, Ohio State and Notre Dame both played their best offensive game of the year and worst defensive game of the year last night. 57 points over only 15 non-garbage game possessions was an uncharacteristic avalanche of scoring.
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UPDATED! Washington is in, and there are 16 combinations of outcomes remaining in today's other P5 title games. With Oregon out of the picture, the most likely remaining scenarios would be relatively easy calls for the selection committee, but chaos is lurking.
Choose Your Own Championship Week Adventure.32 possible outcome combinations in the P5 title games, 99% likelihood we'll have one of 16 scenarios, and the most likely options will make the selection committee sweat.(large format graphic here:
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Frequency of "playing with a lead", the percentage of non-garbage possessions against FBS opponents contested while in the lead:. 1. Alabama (89.4%).2. Georgia (76.1%).3. Notre Dame (75.1%).4. Clemson (73.6%).5. Utah State (72.6%). Data for all teams:
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20 years ago this week, I first referenced the "Fremeau Efficiency Index" in a message to family asking about my momentum statistics. Hours of scribbling off/def notations into a notebook may not be an optimized entry path into sports analytics these days. but it worked for me.
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Best 20-year average Massey Consensus ranking:.1.Ohio St.2.FSU.3.Oklahoma.4.Florida.5.LSU.6.Georgia.7.USC.8.Oregon.9.Alabama.10.Va Tech.
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Michigan Wolverines Best and Most Accomplished Ratings by Season, 2007-2023
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OFEI (opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency) and DFEI (opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency) for all teams and national champions since 2007.
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Hat tip to @Castricone for this:.Washington has been outgained in three straight weeks, lost the turnover battle in each, and won all three games. I don't have a record of any team doing this three times in a *season* before, and only 26 teams since 2007 have even done it twice.
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Including overtime, Cincinnati had drives end at the Miami-OH 3-yard line, 10-yard line, 5-yard line, 6-yard line, 18-yard line, and 2-yard line. They scored nine points on those six possessions and lost 31-24.
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Ohio State becomes the 10th team to start the season 6-0, joining Alabama, BYU, Cincinnati, Clemson, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Marshall, Notre Dame, and San Jose State.
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There were an average of only 22.8 possessions per FBS game in Week 6, the lowest average in a full regular season weekend slate since at least 2007.
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FEI ratings updated through Week 9: .Preseason projection weight varies (5%-25%) based on the number of FBS games played.
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SOS to date for FEI top10:.17. ND.25. Alabama.33. Mich St.52. Oklahoma.58. Stanford.61. Navy.66. Michigan.78. Baylor.89. Clemson.94. Ohio St.
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I’ve been teaching a weekly “Chartmakers” elective for a group of fifth graders. We’ve visualized weather patterns, World Cup results, elephants, Disney World rides, and daily routines. We are not using R, Python, or Excel. We are using skittles and crayons, and it’s awesome.
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CFP top 25 teams that haven't faced another CFP top 25 team:.Alabama.Clemson.Utah.Minnesota.Wake Forest.Boise St.
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F+ ratings for the 2023 CFP field in comparison to national champions since 2007
@bcfremeau @ESPN_BillC Can you show where the past CFP champs are?.
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