Aaron Stupple
@astupple
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Physician optimist. Loves Popper, forgotten Darwin of knowledge. Bitcoiner.
Massachusetts
Joined October 2008
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If the virus was deadlier, and the vaccine was obviously very effective (sterilizing) with no side effects, then vax deniers would obviously be wackos.
What he’s missing is that doubts about the vaccine that turned out to be true were suppressed by the ppl whose job it was to be
I couldn't believe Sam made another "if the virus killed more kids" argument, so I cut a longer clip.
What he's saying this time is "in an extreme enough situation anything is justifiable".
What he doesn't get is that we need principles because we have imperfect sensemaking.🧵
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NOT MEDICAL ADVICE:
Dementia is coming for all of us, if something else doesn’t get us sooner. But despite how common and destructive it is, we have surprisingly little cultural knowledge about it.
In the hospital, I'm often present for the first time that a person's dementia
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If teamwork so central to success, why are there essentially zero influential books written by a team of authors?
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Breaking: Earth is uninhabitable without technologies such as clothes, shelters, and in some cases air conditioning.
“The world is warming, and it’s going to go beyond what normal physiology can cope with.”
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I just finished
@AbigailShrier
’s Bad Therapy.
Well worth the read.
Best points:
1 Therapy is probably more harmful than helpful for almost all kids bc no matter what, kids will get the message that something is so wrong with them that their own parents can’t help.
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All habits are good, because they efficiently solve problems.
So efficiently that habits sink below consciousness, freeing us to think of other things.
“Bad habits” solve problems in ways that conflict with other values. Since habits are not conscious, it can be hard to
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One of the greatest achievements of medical research, good thing I got involved and put the brakes on.
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Finally, somebody said what needed to be said - an incredible trove of life changing ideas are sitting in
@DavidDeutschOxf
’s books and talks!
@naval
and
@tferriss
curate a fantastic introduction.
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I've been wondering why conservatives seem better historians than liberals, and it occurred to me - conservatives aren't cultural relativists.
The belief that some cultures are better than others is an organizing principle for history, like evolution is for biology.
History as
This talk is incredible, addresses much more than just war.
Might make you conservative in about a half hour.
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Andrew Wiles thought Fermat’s Theorem was unsolvable on the morning that he solved it.
He was at that moment far and away THE world’s foremost expert.
Yet even he couldn’t see what is not yet discovered - bc that’s what discovery is, finding stuff we don’t know.
If you don't agree that AGI is coming soon, you need to explain why your views are more informed than expert AI researchers. The experts might be wrong -- but it's irrational for you to assert with confidence that you know better than them.
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@evanhill
@paulg
@RubyMellen
@arturgalocha
@juledurg
Change “Israeli bombing campaign” to “Hamas defensive strategy.”
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I wouldn’t be surprised if the CDC started recommending homeopathic remedies for warding off COVID.
Wow, I see the CDC now recommends you wear a mask that does NOT work (cloth) at a threshold that is NOT based on any data what-so-ever
Following the Science is so much fun!
Historians will see clearly how embarrassing this is
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Before COVID, I considered public health to be the best application of expertise.
Seeing how colossally bad they performed, it’s scary to think that other fields are probably worse.
Vlad is right. A real expert won't get hired by the Biden 'pro-school closure ' administration. A real expert pisses people off in both political parties. Bc the truth is not politics
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It's not the evidence that bothers me, so much as the complete disregard for the consequences of being wrong.
I mean, do they pay any price at all when their bad advice is listened to by millions?
If they did pay a price, maybe they'd be more reluctant to make stuff up.
They are not a scientific organization
They just make things up w/o evidence
And these days are captured by extreme left-wing people
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This is why people are so special.
Even the chimps don’t care.
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The simplicity of this argument shows how strange it is that recent events are controversial.
This should be among the most uncontroversial cases of right and wrong.
One of the clearest explanations of the conflict I've seen so far
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We all know school doesn’t make kids smarter.
When you meet someone really smart, do you wonder if they went to Montessori? If they had an amazing secondary school?
Do you assume a fancy college made them smart, or that they got into fancy college bc they were already smart?
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@ToKTeacher
Yeah, it’s funny, we often hear:
“Early on , we didn’t know, so it was open season on any idea that got into officials’ heads.”
No! When you don’t know, that doesn’t give you license to arbitrarily implement something.
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The tragedy of parenting.
My parents told me this, repeatedly, explicitly, with great sincerity.
But that doesn't cut it.
After spending years unintentionally building a relationship of distrust, it is very hard to convert it to full trust. 🧵1/
As a parent, the best gift you can give your child is the comfort and ease for them to have a conversation with you without ever having to think twice.
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@soncharm
Exactly, I should have added that point.
The stronger the case for the vaccine, the less you need to force it.
The weaker the case for the vaccine, well, the less worthwhile it is to force.
Therefore - force is never appropriate (from this particular line of argument.)
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It doesn't work, and it can't come off, and it's only for those at least risk from COVID.
Embarrassing.
Because once upon a time, Trump didn't want to wear a mask, liberal cities decided to show him by forcing their own kids to wear a mask that doesn't work (cloth) and never take it off.
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The astonishing slowness of our research institutions.
My jaw is on the floor - this took 1.5 years?!?!?
Does the word crisis mean anything?
This is the layered risk reduction that many of us (including
@HuffmanLabDU
) have stressed for well over a year. 72% reduction in inhalation dose in near field (more is possible). 90% (factor of 10) reduction in far field. > 95% (> 20-fold) possible. w/ full vaccination .. whoa!
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Funniest
@VPrasadMDMPH
video yet.
CDC still recommends isolating from your pet, but “Do not euthanize!” bc there’s no evidence of significant spread.
Isolating from your pet? NYtimes keeps fueling covidmania
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@VPrasadMDMPH
@Sensible__Med
Experts telling you not to believe what you can see with your own eyes.
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Nothing more entertaining than skewering hypocrisy.
Medical background not required to enjoy this.
Yale says Institutions should not referee disagreements
Science magazine asks UFlorida to referee Ladapo
It's misinformation if your political opponent does it
It's a limitation, if your side does it
Full video on Youtube
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@GI_Pearls
@Surgeon_General
There’s example after example - but govt agencies get a pass on misinformation and spin.
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Imagine your two grandparents and you have 2 doses.
Do you give 2 shots to one at 95% effectiveness in 6 weeks, or 1 shot to both at 85% effectiveness in 2 weeks? (And the 2nd shot in a few months.)
@mtosterholm
and
@ATabarrok
are right. cc
@VPrasadMDMPH
A new peer-reviewed Israeli study finds the Pfizer vaccine 85% effective against COVID after one dose.
On
@FiringLineShow
, Dr.
@MTOsterholm
calls for an emergency review of data for a one-dose strategy. "The time for doing this is running short….The surge will be here.”
@PBS
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2 Schools are trying to therapize kids by deputizing non-professionals to “help” kids focus on their feelings and other garbage that just makes kids ruminate on bad stuff and get anxious.
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The CDC is taxpayer funded on the belief that no private org would serve the public interest.
Here, five ppl, in their free time, outperform the CDC at its most basic job.
@zeynep
has singlehandedly scooped CDC, repeatedly.
@ProfEmilyOster
schooled CDC on schools, repeatedly.
The CDC made 5 MISTAKES in it's analysis of myocarditis risk and benefit for young adults, and this is a big deal
Allow me to detail them for you
[thread]
Our OP-ED now out!
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Blatant, obvious antisemitism goes largely unnoticed. This indicates that non-blatant, subtle antisemitism is widespread.
Some of the blatant stuff:
A student at Cornell was arrested for stating a public wish to "bring an assault rifle to campus" and "shoot up" a Kosher dining
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“Waiting for more data isn’t “science,” it’s sometimes an excuse for an unscientific status-quo bias.”
Has anyone noticed how consistently right
@ATabarrok
has been on matters of extreme importance?
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Recurring nightmares about video games are rare.
Recurring nightmares about exams are common.
This is an old old story. Even Freud wrote of the lifelong psychological damage inflicted on teenagers and young adults by exam coercion.
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@VPrasadMDMPH
@nytimes
They’d rather sell subscriptions to an audience who loves alarmism.
Better to encourage the migration to Twitter.
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Beautiful connection of morality, progress and optimism.
Hamas isn’t getting us to the stars.
I've upset some people, who follow me for space/tech/science, by supporting Israel in the current conflict with Hamas.
What did you expect though? Do you think that the society that builds this sort of thing and lives there is going to be a violent, bigoted theocracy like
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One of the best COVID talks I’ve ever heard, thank you!
We were delighted at
@vkprasadlab
to host John Ioannidis, as he discussed some of recent papers on COVID-19. Excess death. Vaccine effectiveness. Toxicity of lockdowns.
Spectacular discussion and Q& A
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Ioannidis doesn’t just “present the data,” he frames the question (when does the pandemic end) and offers several explanations. A breath of fresh air.
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@bryan_caplan
It’s hard to see some of the problems with a system that you’re participating in.
The best parenting advice I’ve gotten has come from non-parents.
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@Atom2384
Institutional failures fuel the fire of charlatans and quacks.
The CDC is a disgrace, more harmful than helpful, $billions in false reassurances, restrictions, and elementary mistakes (natural immunity is no good, what?)
Whinging about Joe Rogan misses the ball entirely.
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@jonatanpallesen
@loganclarkhall
Creationism isn’t plausible, it rejects/avoids explaining what happened.
“God did it” tells us nothing, because it can describe any history.
Theories that explain everything are infinitely variable, and so in fact explain nothing.
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I still don’t understand how this not dominating every minute of airtime.
This is a medical countermeasure that’s available to everyone with a t shirt.
Imagine if there was a vaccine that was this effective?
@jeremyphoward
is a hero.
Research scientist Jeremy Howard says the CDC should’ve encouraged wearing face coverings since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.
“Masks are the closest thing we have right now to this kind of imperfect vaccine,” he tells
@smerconish
.
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@gregggonsalves
@CDCgov
We recognize that NPIs cause more harm than good, that we now have a decent amount of immunity, and that anyone who is really concerned can get a great mask and rearrange their own lives rather than demand that everyone else conform to their risk threshold.
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This challenge is a paradox.
This is my explainer 🧵.
I’m using two of
@daviddeutschoxf
articles, both very readable, errors are my own.
Simple challenge if you Deutsch stans have any idea what you’re talking about:
What’s an example prompt you think AI can’t answer correctly in 2 years but a typical human could?
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Hey
@JonHaidt
- serious question:
Imagine studying the effects of watching the movie Titanic with an RCT assessing mood before and after viewing.
If teens reported feeling more depressed, would you recommend banning teens from watching it?
Here is my response to that review in Nature. It is my response to all who assert that there is "no evidence" that social media is a substantial CAUSE of the teen mental health crisis, it's only an accidental correlate:
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@DeAngelisCorey
@realchrisrufo
If you disagree with the collective, you undermine democracy. Interesting.
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Did this look as bad in October as it looks today? Delaying a 95% effective vaccine for politics?
TR was almost congratulatory.
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3 Overprotective parenting is a trend that desperately needs reversing.
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Also, kids are very suggestible, and kids really can’t willingly engage with therapy bc it’s not their choice (willing engagement is a requirement for adults).
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Breathtaking.
Curious for
@DavidDeutschOxf
‘s take on capacity for knowledge to cause transformations or something.
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You’re going to whine instead of wade into the infinite possible discoveries?
Get your shit together.
“The possibilities that lie in the future are infinite… Thus it is our duty, not to prophesy evil but, rather, to fight for a better world.”
— Karl Popper, The Myth of the Framework (1994)
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It’s bad enough that therapy talk has pervaded everywhere, replacing kids’ sense of agency with victimhood of their own emotions, but it’s worse when school makes it compulsory. Social-emotional learning sounds great, but it’s poison.
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I graduated from Cornell and was a resident at Harvard Medical School, and I participated in die-ins and other "social justice" activities.
I can easily imagine my former self going along with the anti-Israel sentiment expressed at these institutions today. I'm embarrassed for
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"Delayed gratification is not a skill, it's a liability. If you're trying to delay gratification or avoid gratification or close off distractions then that means that you're not terribly interested in whatever it is you’re doing.”
Join the conversation
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Look how much real life for these kids is disrupted by school.
SMARTPHONE BAN
In the US, a teacher (Mary Garza) instructed her students to set their phones to loud mode. Each time a notification was received they’d stand up & tally it under a suitable category. This occurred during ONE class period. Each mark is a learning disruption
#edchat
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@rpblcifucankpit
Paradoxically, the closer the case gets to “justifying” totalitarianism, the less you’d need totalitarianism because everyone would be scared shitless, and only the super crazies would dissent.
So your policies would focus on what to do with the small number of super crazies.
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How I judge
@VPrasadMDMPH
vs. his opponents:
Whose approach will improve medicine more, allowing dissenting views, or silencing them?
Dr G. thinks my keynote would not be well attended, but how does he know? <1% of ACCP members tweeted, but 99% of the views unknown
What he doesn't say is that during COVID we disagreed.. a lot
Starting with masking toddlers 1/6
He was a fan! 👀
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A national disgrace - the NIH couldn’t even FUND research into basic questions - how does SARS CoV2 spread, when are you most contagious, do masks work - for MONTHS.
Dr.
@MartyMakary
, author of "The Price We Pay," talks about what he feels needs to change in health care as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health care system, now on
@BookTV
.
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@VPrasadMDMPH
I’m waiting for the article that gives advice on which political party parents should join.
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Is anyone voicing anger at Egypt for not opening their border with Gaza?
Gaza also shares a border with Egypt.
To keep Gazans out, Egypt built massive parallel walls and a super-strength steel underground wall.
One wall is made of concrete, goes 20 feet high and underground. The other is stone.
In addition to the above/underground walls, the area
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@VPrasadMDMPH
@DrHairmetal
What is it with you and questioning whether shit works? Doesn’t feeling good that we’re doing something count for anything?
You keep taking away good feels, that’s why they howl.
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@LuisCifuentesE
@gleason_colum
@DavidDeutschOxf
If Jews cannot defend themselves, they will face genocide.
That is the entire point of Israel; take away their defense, and they get wiped out.
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@cblatts
@ATabarrok
Carbon is priced in, just not at the price that you’d like.
Which is yet another reason we need the price system - so that some people can’t force their priorities on others.
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People don’t believe in witches or spells anymore bc we know they don’t exist. And persecutors stopped using them.
But the blood libel - Jews are inherently bloodthirsty - wont die.
Why does this medieval relic survive while spooks and magic have faded in the face of reason?
Is there any accountability for the NY Times and the editors who published this headline, minutes after the blast and seconds after getting a call from the Hamas operative who told them this story? They have the blood of future casualties in their hands.
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The most basic form of distrust is treating someone like they don't know what's best for them.
Someone could love you to death, but if they tell you that they know your interests better than you know them yourself - can you imagine trusting that person? /3
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@DavidDeutschOxf
@elonmusk
@stclairashley
It’s remarkable that discourse about Elon’s Twitter/X largely ignores his rapid error correction.
Error correction gets bad press.
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@VPrasadMDMPH
We are having vaccinalia with my vaccinated parents in two weeks. Christmas and New Years rolled into one.
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@ggreenwald
Did you hear about what happened in Israel on 10/7?
The suffering was the POINT.
Proof that Israel is different? They make efforts to reduce suffering that cost them IDF lives.
Imagine the perversity of Hamas doing the same.
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If someone tells you to go to sleep now or else you'll be tired, to eat right or you'll be unhealthy, to do your homework or you'll be dumb - how could you confide in that person?
Everything you say might reveal an additional area that you need oversight and control. /4
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I wish more podcast hosts would do this - set up a conversation between two others.
I want to see what happens when the two sets of ideas collide, rather than just imagine it in my head.
It was an honour to host the first ever public dialogue between David Deutsch (
@DavidDeutschOxf
) and Steven Pinker (
@sapinker
).
They are longstanding admirers of each other's work.
I view Steve's defence of the Enlightenment as more empirical, whereas David's is built more on
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This talk is incredible, addresses much more than just war.
Might make you conservative in about a half hour.
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@VPrasadMDMPH
@DjokerNole
The idea that shingles vax is amazing for elderly, but a waste for children is somehow obvious, while the same point about COVID vax remains political.
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Fascinating research shows boring stuff is boring.
This study led by University of Central Florida found that Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms manifest watching videos requiring executive brain function.
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A great tweet for the new year - all prosperity came from people.
What causes
#poverty
? Nothing. It's the original state, the default and starting point. The real question is, What causes
#prosperity
?
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Crucial difference between talking about ideas and forcing them on others.
Those who like to force ideas tend to really not want you talking about the wrong ones.
Believing wifi opens the blood brain barrier and causes toxins to enter is crazy, imo, but RFK Jr is not smashing the router in my home. Meanwhile, public health 'experts' who think themselves too brilliant to debate made toddlers mask for years-- equally fucking crazy.
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Imagine explaining every issue as “just a story.”
Capitalism is just like Marxism, some crap we invented.
Chess is just a story about squares on a board.
Humans are just atoms.
Technically true, but doesn’t explain anything.
What a philosophically inept position.
Villainously inept.
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@jasoncrawford
Have you read Austrian Economics?
@saifedean
Principles of Economics actually makes sense, great fresh intro to the topic.
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