Andrew Sentance
@asentance
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Independent business economist. Former CBI Director of Economic Affairs and BA Chief Economist. Member of #BoE MPC 2006-11. Guitarist & organist.
Broxbourne, Herts
Joined July 2011
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Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
has delivered the worst TV performance of any PM in modern times this evening on live TV - in front of a Committee of senior MPs. Bumbling and stumbling, he is totally unfit to lead our country.
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Why are so many people focussing on the negatives of working from home? It is a great opportunity to reduce transport emissions, stop spread of disease through commuting and mingling at work/in city centres, and provides a more flexible and family-friendly working environment.
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I’ve lost count of the number of times that
@NicolaSturgeon
has said “I don’t recall” or “I’m not sure” in her evidence in the Scottish Parliament today. Given the importance of the events she is talking about it is surprising she has become so forgetful.
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If Kwasi Kwarteng thinks that the way to reinvigorate the UK economy is to allow rich bankers to earn bigger bonuses, he is - to put it politely - barking up the wrong tree. We need policies to boost growth which energise the bulk of the population, not just an elite few.
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Various of my friends have tried to persuade me that Boris would be a good national leader for the next 5 years. I do not believe it. So when you vote today, do not vote for
@BorisJohnson
and his Tory party which has been purged of moderate voices. Vote for another party.
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Why is
@BBCNews
putting so much emphasis on
#wagathachristie
- Vardy vs Rooney - when there’s so much more important news? The world is in turmoil and our main broadcast news network is focussing on personal trivia. And we’re paying for all this through the licence fee!
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Time to puncture the myth perpetrated by
#Brexiteers
that UK economic performance has been held back by EU and Single Market. Since we joined EEC/EU in 1973, UK GDP/head has risen faster than any G7 economy apart from Japan!
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Does anyone really believe any of this as a real-world scenario?
@bankofengland
is undermining its credibility and independence by giving such prominence to these extreme scenarios and forecasts.
@bankofengland
worst case Brexit no deal, border disruption scenario is grim. GDP fall 8% peak-to-trough, sterling down 25% below dollar parity. Will ERG, Labour and others be prepared to risk it for political gain ?
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This is the worst proposal! Lockdowns have not worked - so let’s have a bigger one. I don’t get it.
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This is a disgraceful Tweet which shows utter contempt for independent schools at the heart of government. Bridget Phillipson is not fit to be a cabinet minister if this is the way she chooses to express herself. She should delete this comment or resign.
Our state schools need teachers more than private schools need embossed stationery.
Our children need mental health support more than private schools need new pools.
Our students need careers advice more than private schools need AstroTurf pitches.
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New Chancellor announces a new advisory council. Problem is all members are from the financial sector - Rupert Harrison, Gerrjan Vlieghe, Sushil Wadhwani and Karen Ward. Can we have sone real world business economists and serious academic economists on this Council please.
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How incompetent is David Frost - the chief UK negotiator on
#Brexit
? The fact we are heading towards a “no deal” cliff edge (once again) is a major failure of IK diplomacy,
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If UK does not conclude a FTA deal with the EU,
#Brexit
should go down as the biggest fraud perpetrated on the British people. Brexiteers repeatedly claimed that we would maintain access to the Internal Market, seal an “oven-ready” deal etc. No deal would reveal this as a sham.
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If
#Brexit
ends up with a No Deal we will look back on it as the UK’s biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez.
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Rachel Reeves says her economic inheritance is worse than any other incoming postwar gov’t. Really? Worse than 1974 or 1979, when the economy was heading into recession, inflation was rampant and the gov’t deficit was unsustainable? Methinks our new Chancellor protests too much!
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The idea that we can substitute trade with the EU with an Australian trade deal is environmental nonsense. Transporting goods half the way around the world when they are available on our doorstep makes no sense whatsoever.
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If this is where we are heading with
#Brexit
, it’s bonkers! “Manston Airport to host lorry park trial”. Time to put a stop to this madness which is undermining the health of the UK economy, and reducing our standing in the world community of nations.
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Michael Gove’s speech yesterday seems to be a platform for putting the boot into the Civil Service, making politically motivated changes to gov’t depts and even more centralisation of power. This is an agenda for undermining the machinery of gov’t, not constructive reform.
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Too late for this unity plea now. Attempt to forge national unity should have started immediately after
#EURef
vote. Instead,
@theresa_may
sought to placate hard
#Brexiteers
in her own party. Her approach has been divisive and she is reaping the consequences.
Theresa May urges people to abandon the Leave-Remain split that's divided Britain since the Brexit referendum
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Theresa May confirms UK is leaving Single Market & EU Customs Union. Economic madness! UK was architect of the Single Market and Customs Union makes business smooth and efficient with our main trading partners. Both are crucial for UK business and we abandon them at our peril.
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Who is advising
@KwasiKwarteng
now? He has sacked a very distinguished Treasury Perm Sec - Tom Scholar. KK seems to be acting as an unguided missile on tax policy, as evidenced by his statement today.
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The
@bankofengland
#Brexir
analysis is highly speculative and extreme. It will add to the view that the Bank is getting unnecessarily involved in politics and that will further undermine perceptions of its independence and credibility.
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Labour Party is arguing a 2-3 week circuit-breaker lockdown provides a breathing space to get Test and Trace working properly. But we’ve had 6 months to get T&T working. How will 2-3 weeks make a difference? And how does a lockdown solve the problems with T&T?
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So there’s a “tax break” on private schools according to our current gov’t and they’re going to end it. Reality is education spending has not been liable for VAT since it was introduced in 1973. That is not a “tax break” . It is a principled exemption, like zero VAT on food.
School VAT tax raid to go ahead, insists Bridget Phillipson | Independent
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U.K. households spend at least £5bn per year on cakes, buns and biscuits which are predominantly zero-rated for VAT. So if Labour wants to raise more VAT revenue to pay for more spending, why not remove that relief, rather than taxing education via VAT on school fees?
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I am very surprised that Jacob Rees-Mogg keeps his job as Leader of the Commons despite Grenfell comments.. He is a poisonous influence on our political system and should be ejected.
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It’s an economic fallacy that a rise in money wages makes people better off. It is real wages (money wage adjusted for price inflation) which matters. And higher real wages can only be sustained with higher productivity. Otherwise higher money wages just result in more inflation.
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I don’t normally agree with
@Telegraph
. But Labour policy on taxing private education is bonkers. It will raise little money (about £1.5bn) for maximum disruption to the education system. It is vindictive class war politics.
The Telegraph reports that privately educated pupils in England were almost three times more likely to pass at A* and A grade in their A-levels this year than their peers in state comprehensives.
So why does Labour want to blow up the system with a 20% VAT increase on fees and
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Latest
@IMFNews
forecasts put the Pandemic impact into context. Over the 3 years 2020-22, world output is expected to grow on average by 2.3pc per annum, US by 2.0 pc, Euro area by 0.8pc and UK by 0.5pc. Claims that UK is bouncing back more rapidly than other economies are wrong.
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So an independent civil servant decides that
@pritipatel
had breached the ministerial code but
#Boris
decides not. So the honest civil servant resigns and the bullying minister and her boss continue in office. It stinks!
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Speculation that
@RachelReevesMP
will introduce tax rises in the October Budget. Is this the same Rachel Reeves who said in the election campaign she was not going to raise taxes, and criticised the Tories for raising the tax burden to a record high since 1940s?
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What is the point of
#Brexit
when the best that the UK can do is simply replicate EU trade deals?
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This will surely be the first time that a nation has sought to negotiate a worse trade deal than the one that currently exists. Can someone explain to me why
#Brexit
is a good idea? Looks like a disaster on stilts.
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This man(John Redwood) has opposed increased resources for the NHS for most of his career and now wants to open Nightingale hospitals which can’t be properly staffed due to NHS spending limits. He is a right wing ideologue with little grip on current realities.
Why not open and staff all the Nightingale hospital capacity they need for CV 19 cases and get the rest of the NHS back to full capacity for everything else? No need to scare us with the idea the NHS will not cope.
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3 big problems with the 2-3 week circuit-breaker favoured by Keir Starmer and others. (1) 2-3 weeks can easily extend to 2-3 months. (2) When the lockdown ends, the virus is likely to re-emerge. (3) Poorly targeted given large regional/local variations in infection rates.
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Can the BBC please keep
@afneil
off the airwaves. He is a blatant
#Brexiteer
. We need more independent journalism from the BBC.
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@Peston
@BorisJohnson
Boris is not proposing a rational tax reform. He is trying to appeal to Tory voters in a crude and unsophisticated way. We should not be surprised given his record of blatant political opportunism.
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The kipper he is waving around is from Isle of Man which is neither part of the UK or the EU! Do we want this man in Downing Street when he doesn’t even understand the boundaries and status of parts of the British Isles?
@BethRigby
Johnson waves around a kipper. And then uses it for the punchline: We will bring back the kippers! Crowd cheering, partial standing ovation
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What a fiasco! Gov’t committed to investment & growth when they wanted votes has now turned into a 70s/80s style slasher of public sector capital spending. The quickest U-turn in British political history: “Reeves to axe projects to plug budget black hole”
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The reputation of economic forecasts has taken a bad blow today with both UK government and
@bankofengland
appearing to use forecasts to support political objectives. Let's debate
#Brexit
- which I strongly oppose - rationally without recourse to bogus forecasts.
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Are there any Labour supporters out there who believe it is a good idea to cut infrastructure projects to reduce the public sector deficit?and that will help economic growth? Rachel Reeves appears to have been captured by old-fashioned and outdated Treasury orthodoxy.
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Sadly,
#Brexit
is the first set of trade negotiations where a country is targeting a worse deal than the current status quo.
3 key words in Mrs May’s appalling Mansion House speech, which anti-Brexit campaigners should repeat again and again, are ‘LESS MARKET ACCESS.’ For the first time in my life a Prime Minister has declared the policy of the state is to reduce British trade, exports & influence.
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This Tweet highlights what a perverse and twisted person Nigel Farage is. He has wrecked our country with his
#Brexit
campaign, and is now turning his vile rhetoric on China. He is a little Englander and does not understand the modern global economy.
It really is about time we all said it. China caused this nightmare. Period.
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Brexit is a National Disaster for the UK. A great country is in the process of inflicting serious self-harm. It is incredibly sad.
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A lockdown with massive economic cost, followed by a relaxation at Christmas leading to another virus surge, requiring another lockdown. And so we go on. If this is a sensible policy, I’m a Dutchman, which I am not!
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The United Kingdom of GB and Ireland dates from 1801 - but 70 years later the concept was already being challenged (in Ireland), and from 1916-22 it unravelled with the independence of the majority of Ireland. Now looks likely the rest of the UK will fall apart in next 20 years.
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Following
#Brexit
vote, UK now has the slowest growth and the highest inflation of any major EU economy.
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The phrase “return to work” is being abused by gov’t ministers and others. Many people have been working from home through the pandemic crisis and they should not be press-ganged into a “return to the office” campaign. See my comments in the article below.
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The English Civil War was Parliament vs the King. Now the powers of the monarchy have been used to suspend Parliament. The issue is the same - an overbearing executive should not be allowed to override our democratic structures.
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Pound will buy less than 0.95 euros at Heathrow this morning.
#Brexit
and ultra-low interest rates have really trashed our currency.
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Excellent analysis by
@TheIFS
of yesterday’s
#Budget
. An independent think-tank doing the work that
@hmtreasury
and/or
@OBR_UK
should have done. Well done
@PJTheEconomist
and the team.
All our analysis of todays not-so-mini budget is here
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The longer Boris talks, the more the vagaries untruths and inconsistencies of his position are exposed. He holds up a kipper from the Isle of Man as an example of overbearing EU regulation. The Isle of Man is neither part of the UK and is not part of the EU!
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Has our current gov’t led by
#Boris
no shame? Dominic Cummings and Priti Patel are protected. Honest hard-working public sector workers have their pay frozen. This is the worst gov’t I have seen in my lifetime.
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Despite my loyalty to my former employer BA, I am inclined to agree with this - British Airways' treatment of staff 'a disgrace', say MPs
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Not sure he is an “expert” on trade. He is an obscure Australian politician who knows little about Uk trade, as we do very little trade with Australia these days.
“Tony Abbott is a homophobe and a misogynist”
Health Sec
@MattHancock
: “He’s also an expert on trade”
#KayBurley
JM
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Why does UK need a National Wealth Fund (NWF), as our new gov’t has proposed. Normally these Wealth Funds are set up by countries with a balance of payments surplus - to deploy the accumulated surplus. But UK has a persistent deficit - this doesn’t apply. So why do we need a NWF?
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This is a sad day. I can't recall in my lifetime UK withdrawing from any major international organisation, let alone one as important as EU
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Lots of talk from
#Boris
supporters about “letting him get on with running the country + dealing with issues that the people care about”. But he is useless at that - he has not delivered solutions to any serious problems in the UK. And his gov’t has no credible economic policy.
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What drivel! The Boris Johnson agenda is to tear up the UK’s most successful trade agreement ever (with the EU) and replace it with ... err ... nothing. I am still staggered our country is on this crazy Kamikaze course.
If there is a Conservative majority we can smash through the gridlock and get this country moving again.
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If lockdowns were the solution to
#Coronavirus
, we should have got on top of it by now. But
#Boris
gov’t continues on the same track, even though GDP is still nearly 10pc down over this year & mass job losses are happening. We need a total policy rethink, not more of the same.
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UK political situation is dire. We have an ineffective and divided gov’t and an ineffective and divided opposition. I cannot see a positive way forward unless moderates from both major political parties come together with others (LibDems, SNP) to govern in the national interest.
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In addition to GB Energy, the National Wealth Fund is another big new gov’t project (£7.2 bn) which is currently unfunded. Taken together these organisations are set to absorb £15.5bn but as yet the financing has not been announced. A Labour black hole?
This week Parliament will debate the establishment of Great British Energy which will be backed by £8.2bn of public funds. But where is the money coming from, without further tax rises or more borrowing? Hopefully MPs will want to know before giving their approval to this plan.
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Rachel Reeves continues to claim her economic inheritance is worst since WW2. Worse than 1945, when debt was 250pc of GDP? Worse than 1974 & 79: rip-roaring inflation, rising unemp & recession coming? Worse than 2010 with near double digit deficit? Her claim is fals & unfounded.
The Conservatives left us with the worst inheritance since the Second World War.
Today I will set out how this new Labour government will fix the foundations of our economy, so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better off.
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Labour’s fiscal rules allow them to borrow to fund capital spending. So why is today’s speculation about cutting capital projects to plug the alleged £20bn “black hole”? It is utter fiscal nonsense- even less coherent than Tory economic policies, which is saying something!
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This sort of isolationist rhetoric is not appropriate. The Pfizer and Biontech vaccine is the product of work by companies based in US and Germany and many other countries played their part. We need to celebrate international co-operation, not indulge in UK triumphalism.
The UK was the first country to sign a deal with Pfizer/BioNTech - now we will be the first to deploy their vaccine
To everyone involved in this breakthrough: thank you
In years to come, we will remember this moment as the day the UK led humanity’s charge against this disease
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"No deal"
#Brexit
would be bad for our economy, but also highly damaging for UK's position as a responsible & reliable international partner
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Very disappointed by coverage of
#coronavirus
as a news issue.
@BBCNews
and
@sky
treat this as a political story. Very little coverage from experts on the economy and health - eg
@faisalislam
and
@BBCHughPym
. Let’s hear from the experts, not the pundits.
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What happened to our new Labour gov’t supporting investment/growth? Can’t think of any policy
@RachelReevesMP
has announced in that direction. All about cutting borrowing and blaming Tories about economic errors. Won’t help grow the economy. Poor start from our new gov’t.
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Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, once a strong supporter of remaining in the EU, has now decided that we will be absolutely fine with a “No Deal”
#Brexit
. Bizarre - and highly opportunistic. Our politics and politicians are plumbing new depths as the Brexit crisis deepens.
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One of the dangers of
#Brexit
is that it becomes an all-encompassing project for the UK government and the senior civil service, crowding out consideration of other important issues. As
@Andrew_Adonis
points out this is now happening.
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UK growth now lagging behind both Germany and France for the first time since 2011. Our economy has slowed down as the rest of Europe has been speeding up.
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This is a myth. The idea that “reducing the economic impact of the virus” involves cutting GDP by 25 percent, followed by an even more virulent resurgence when lockdown is eased, is clearly nonsense.
@asentance
But by reducing the impact of the virus, the impact to the economy is reduced - they are not independent systems. SAGE publish their minutes. Where can the public find the equivalent Treasury modelling that has informed policy? And for that matter, the CCC minutes?
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Today is a day of mourning for me. The UK is departing from the EU - one of the most successful projects of political and economic co-operation we have ever seen. A sad day indeed.
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Watching PMQs today, it is clear that
@BorisJohnson
is in danger of losing the support of the House of Commons. Both sides of the House are showing lack of confidence in his gov’t. He bluffs and blusters and creates no confidence across the country.
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More Brexit fantasy from Boris Johnson. EU-Canada deal took 14 years from the first discussions to implementation. Not a good model for Brexit deal to be done in next couple of months!
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Good to see Gordon Brown interviewed by
@KayBurley
on
@SkyNews
this morning - talking a lot of sense about the need for better financial support for employment, especially targeted to younger people. A voice of sanity and experience which should be heeded.
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@BorisJohnson
Why are you so surprised, Boris? Best option for UK was to stay in the EU and exercise our influence to steer Europe in a positive direction.
#Brexit
is the root of all the problems we have faced since
#EURef
, yet Leave supporters refuse to acknowledge this.
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We were told by the
#Brexiteers
from 2016 onwards that a UK-EU trade deal would be easy to negotiate. Once again they have misled the British public. Lies, duplicity and incompetence - that is the
#Brexit
agenda.
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Not clear that public sector pay freeze or overseas aid cut were needed in the Spending Review today. Without them borrowing might have been about £6bn higher than the £164bn projected. Looks like token penny-pinching which will make little impact on the financial position.
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I am seeing a lot about U.K. being the “fastest growing economy in the G7”. This is a totally false claim - see my Tweet below!
Latest
@IMFNews
forecasts put the Pandemic impact into context. Over the 3 years 2020-22, world output is expected to grow on average by 2.3pc per annum, US by 2.0 pc, Euro area by 0.8pc and UK by 0.5pc. Claims that UK is bouncing back more rapidly than other economies are wrong.
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Much as I respect the Royal Family and understand the need to mourn for Prince Philip, the resurgence of troubles in Northern Ireland is a much more important news story. We were warned that
#Brexit
would undermine peace/stability in Ireland. And that’s exactly what’s happening.
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Sterling continues to slide - now €1.11 and $1.26. The price of
#Brexit
is a severely devalued currency, with higher prices for consumers as a result.
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Sad to say,
@BorisJohnson
brings our parliamentary system into disrepute when he deals with
#PMQs
. He deflects, obscures and often lies. He is a disgrace to our country and the sooner he is displaced from office, the better!
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It seems extremely unlikely that UK will leave EU on 29th March. For that to happen there has to be ratification of the agreement in EU Parliament and Parliaments across Europe. In addition, the UK Parliament will most likely vote down the deal later this month. Time has run out!
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In other words, let’s reverse 200 years of industrialisation and economic progress and become a subsistence economy again!
There is plenty of support for growing more of our own food. Tell your local supermarket we want more U.K. produce. I am pressing the government to get behind our farmers and fishing industry. Not much choice of U.K. cheeses, fruit and veg in some shops.
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Brexit takes its toll. During 2017, UK was the slowest growing of the major EU economies (ie the 10 largest), just behind Italy. Poland, Austria, Netherlands and Spain all grew by over 3pc over the course of last year.
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Watching
@BorisJohnson
speaking to the
#CBI
conference (
@CBItweets
). His speech is incoherent and at least half of it seems to be made up as he is going along. He is an embarrassment to our great nation, and the sooner he leaves office, the better.
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Brilliant! We put £1 trillion of trade at risk through
#Brexit
. The prize? A competition to design a new passport.
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It is now becoming very clear that “Team Truss” was totally unprepared for govt. the sooner we have a General Election the better, when the British public can decide the gov’t we want, not just a bunch of Tory Party fanatics.
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Mum-of-nine Brexiteer emerges as frontrunner for Bank of England top job
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Looking back over the past 3 years, everything that could have gone wrong with
#Brexit
has gone wrong. There is maybe a good reason - it is a flawed project for which there was no serious planning and no coherent policy agenda. What do you expect if that is the case?
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Before we go into “shock-horror” mode on UK public debt, worth noting a few things. (1) UK public debt as % of GDP has averaged 95pc since 1700 and been as high as 250pc. (2) Recovery in economy will bring the ratio down. (3) Iinterest rates on debt v.low.
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Let us knock on the head the idea that public sector pay rises add to inflation. This is a myth. Current high inflation is being driven by the private sector, not the public sector.8
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Amazing that
@pritipatel
thought that shouting and swearing at her staff was normal behaviour; her defence was that nobody told her that this sort of behaviour is wrong. Nobody should need to be told that. It just is, and in a position of responsibility you should know that.
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