Anuj Kapur
@anuj_kapur
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CEO & Chief Barista @CloudBees. Tech, Capital Markets and Humo(u)r. Ex C-Level Exec at @SAP @Cisco. Intern @AMD. Amateur @SeinfeldTV Connoisseur. #PleatedJeans
San Francisco, CA
Joined January 2012
@Ross__Hendricks Worth understanding why $CSCO fell in 2000, and never recovered. Differences with $NVDA are greater than are similarities.
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@garyblack00 Counter is that $AMZN competed against retailers and not native tech cos that could rival its stack. If $TSLA uses disruptive pricing owing to its manuf. economies of scale and its own interface, that’s a headwind. Lots of regulatory and UX ground to cover for $TSLA regardless.
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@DrEricDing Will be interesting to watch NT reaction on $CRM which undoubtedly relies on #Government contracts.
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@sv_techie Feels like Tuesday 😀. Get ready for Armageddon in ~12 months. Still looking for POVs on this.
CA residents may need to pay 2-3% of rebuild value annually as home #insurance. Assuming a 5% chance annually of a total catastrophic loss? Does that allow private insurers to have a viable business model. No way #FAIR can be solvent at $3M payout.
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$IBM and $CSCO market capitalization is the same at $240bn. It took over 20 years.
JUST IN 🚨: $IBM on track for its biggest daily gain since January 18, 2001
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@MichaelAArouet Yes but have you ever had to worry about a lost water bottle cap? You’re welcome ☺️
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QQ. Do you believe ministers in governments around the world go short or long based on policy decisions that are rooted in #lobbyists views on “facts”. Can these “facts” be open to scrutiny later and be considered questionable or have leaps of logic and lies by omission? Would that be legal?
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Well said. If hyperscaler budgets shift for the next wave it creates #terminal value headwind for $NVDA. Go from a demand constrained environment to a glut of high end GPUs. ASIC and Networking gets re-rated if GPU footprint. For those in #Networking this happened in 2000 with #fiber.
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@ecommerceshares Less #Davos and more fundamental research. Need to maintain optimism to unwind trading positions on $NVDA.
@ChairliftCap Street has been in on $NVDA. Had to show a brave face on #Research to wind down long positions on #Trading side. #Downgrades will follow.
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@Investingcom Not surprising when you understand the #Street biz model.
@ChairliftCap Street has been in on $NVDA. Had to show a brave face on #Research to wind down long positions on #Trading side. #Downgrades will follow.
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@ChairliftCap Street has been in on $NVDA. Had to show a brave face on #Research to wind down long positions on #Trading side. #Downgrades will follow.
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@qcapital2020 Equities also rely on #TerminalValue. Similar to $UBER risk with #Autonomous. Lack of clarity is a headwind on valuation.
@BigBullCap Feels like investors don’t know how to size the risk here. May be an opportunity for #management to clarify as they are also partners. Until then it might trade sideways.
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@Ross__Hendricks $NVDA retail buyers emulating the $TMDX rule book. Re-rating is not an overnight event.
A reminder that there is no rule-book when stocks re-rate and how quickly they recover. A buy on the dip would be still be a 14% loss in a week. $TMDX
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Lots of $NVDA is now $CSCO articles. Further to this here is where DeepSeek may be a game changer on $NVDA thesis. In 1999 #Nortel $CSCO and $CIEN were in a race for #DWDM, where bandwidth over a single fiber strand, was doubling every 18-24 months. Prices were not rising. This created a supply glut. $NVDA has to worry about pricing power as hyperscalar budgets shift creating glut of high priced chips.
@Ross__Hendricks Worth understanding why $CSCO fell in 2000, and never recovered. Differences with $NVDA are greater than are similarities.
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@Growth_N_Value @sv_techie Yes but this will not benefit $TSM and may give $AAPL greater bargaining power. Plus no sign of an uptick in mobile volumes given elongated refresh cycles. $AAPL up as their integrated chip and memory architecture benefits from lower cost to run #inference.
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@sv_techie @Growth_N_Value $TSM has had significant pricing flexibility (read pricing power) given the capacity dedicated to $NVDA and their lead on the advanced geometries. See $ARM ceo comment. This news is a headwind for $TSM given end markets outside of #AI are in a secular low-growth mode.
The CEO of $ARM explains where the bottlenecks for AI data centers are right now: - power & power regulation, - $TSM "which is the only game in town" for 3nm and 2nm - HBM memory There is a reason why $TSM, $MU, and SK Hynix are a significant part of my portfolio.
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