Alfa
@alfaketchum
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even the rich live in the matrix // crypto trader class of 21’
🗽 ☯︎ CryptoBlog ⬇️⬇️
Joined September 2019
Genesis bankruptcy is going to reveal the entire crypto leverage cycle. Enjoy.
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All I’m saying is… @zachxbt needs to be protected at all cost. I’m not even joking. At this level of wealth, he is putting his life in danger to expose tycoons and criminals.
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Essentially all CZ did was expose: .- Alameda + FTX we’re one and the same .- FTT was propped up as collateral .- Alameda was directionally in the hole (most likely after Luna) . It’s kinda Luna 2.0 contagion effect except FTT was a plug asset. Man, pretty disappointed in SBF.
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Thinking about the bull market… man… we really thought a $1000 gas fee was the future of finance
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Past few days, I've been giga-shitting on @OlympusDAO . Myself and a lot of other DeFi brains believed this protocol to be a ponzi-scheme. @ohmzeus DM'd me first. We chatted. Here's the end of it. Read below if you want more insight.
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What if told you there was GOD token of DeFi that: . - Survived a stressed test as an algo stable ⛑.- Amalgamated varied DeFi giga brain mechanics 🧠. - Will put your grand-kids in the citadel 🏛. Here’s a mega threadoooooor on black fire, $FXS $FRAX. 🧵
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I've seen just about every top signals in the book:.- clubhouse liberals artist calling NFTs the renaissance.- Lambos, Watches, even Planes.- Celebrities cashing out big on stupid NFTs.- Alameda and SuZhu dumping on retail in BDP .- Coinbase volume at astronomical levels . .
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Just some $MSTR max-pain analysis. "Mortgage your company and buy Bitcoin" . Wonder which sharks are going to FUD Bitcoin and short $MSTR. Let's see $1.6bn debt and BTC value of approx. $3bn. He's insolvent at ~18k. Generating <$50m in avg. EBITDA.
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Irene thottin herself into 8 figs was the pico top. I don’t forget.
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It probably holds true that if he can find Doxxes, they can do the same to him. Sir, please stay safe, please also retain legal counsel.
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Tbh, there were was no bera market if you were invested in alpha bags:.-FXS.-ATOM .-OSMO.-FTM.-METIS (ok some, but watch in 2 months).- SILO.-XMON.- TOKE (some, but TokeWars are literally around the corner).- PurpleCoin.
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Legal Case against Dani … I won’t support and I won’t support anyone who vouches for it. I however have been thinking about introducing generalized investment reporting and strategic disclosures for all major DeFi protocols. Protocols would opt in into these standards. 🧵.
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This is the end result of Luna. Genesis, Voyager, BlockFi… the whole fucking lot has been exposed. It’s nasty.
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It makes sense why SBF bailed out lenders — likely because those lenders would have asked for any remaining Collateral — FTT — to be liquidated. Guise of effective altruism. BlockFi is a zero in other words. Just a shell game to keep appearances.
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So Uniswap takes from projects like CrocSwap and then puts a license on their code. Interesting.
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DCG .- owes ~1.7 billion.- has a loan book that is nearly worth 0,.- and has a cash-cow business that has maturity / terminal risk.- has a beaten down venture book. The GBTC trust is going to be sold / spun off.
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Crypto is a call option on the loneliness Web 2.0 created. 1000 "friends" they said -- which later had to be re-branded to follows. How vapid Facebook truly made us.
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What I don’t understand is that if half of the CRV supply is in the hands of one founder and that founder OTC’d a good chunk of it at discount, why is the broader market pretending like it should trade at 60C. And why are lending protocols not rushing to delist.
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Small 🧵🧵🧵 on the value of your networks. The secret is: .- 90% shit posting which subtly includes the alpha 10% deep dives. - being true to your nature. - maintaining relationships and recognizing talent. A story with key people who shaped my journey 👇👇👇.
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Dame forgets that 9/10 anons existed before him b/c of real harassment and repercussions from govt. They built the financial tools -- 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐞 -- so that he and his fans can access their JPEGS . The disrespect from a community manager <<<<<<<<.
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I'm almost confident the hacker fucked up. 0x4E75e27e5Aa74F0c7A9D4897dC10EF651f3A3995 sends AVAX to 0xbe0b30f2564886834726822ed518cc1ffe003a8d.Who then sends AVAX to the hacker only 4 minutes after. HOLY fuck. 0x4 is funded from Coinbase.
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the hardest part about running a small niche account is people think you're wealthy. b4 FTX i was not .and definitely after FtX, i am not. struggle with this insecurity so much, and now its really real.
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An examination of Ethereum Monetary Policy with a Financial Model. 𝐈 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐮𝐦 𝐘𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝟏-𝟑%. The report is approximately 27 Pages. The thread below will give a summary of what to expect. 🧵🧵.
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Has there been a successful OHM fork? . - SB -> SDoge debacle . - Temple -> is it really RFV? . - Time -> nuked it NaV and then founder liquidates themselves out of illiquidity . OHM’s mechanics model aligns with its vision. The rest simply don’t.
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Spent two hours explaining to my normie friend the entire thing: .1). The Kimchi premium .2). His scene on DeFi .3). Soylana Ecosystem (low float, high FDV scam tokennomics) .4). Meth head Caroline .5). The connections to Gary Gensler .6). Alameda Trading Against clients.
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Higher throughput is going to be magical. But DeFi / crypto is too complicated for the average user regardless of speed or security or whatever solution. (Step out of your bubble). The next cycle will the emergence of consumer friendly front-ends and advisory services.
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Assign the probabilities:.- CZ purchases FTX and assumes liabilities and fees. - CZ lets FTX fail, withdraws LOI. - FTX finds willingly buyers at deeply distressed valuations, assuming its more of a asset-liability mismatch and its duration risk.
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@VentureCoinist @cobie @kris @ledgerstatus @jconorgrogan Proof of communication or we’re telling everyone to leave.
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Many don’t realize that crypto likely had 1 credit cycle and 3 or 4 so intra halvening cycles. Credit cycle has turned, and is turning, while the halvening cycles are increasingly more priced in. Leverage in the crypto market went from ~$200bn -> $5-$10bn.
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And ultimately, we’re in this mess for 3 reasons: . 1). GBTC never converting and the ETF kool aid. Hero trade turned into widow maker. 2). The worst lending standards I’ve ever seen (as a former FIG analyst). BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager, Genesis. 3). SBF fraud plain and simple.
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🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨.My worry is that the reason Luna is getting propped is because someone is looking to attack for assets on chain. 66% needed to double spend, and only 10% of the supply is being staked. 220m * .60 cents = $145m of security. 66% is is approx $100m validator control.
The cheaper Luna gets, the easier it is get to attacked and given everyone is pissed, a hard fork is on the table. TFL owns a huge chunk and knowing them, how pernicious they are, they might: .- Initiate / start a hard fork.- roll back the chain and not honor ust.
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Can UST re peg to $1 if Luna Market Cap < UST market Cap, yes in theory. Will TFL allow all the Luna to be redeemed to make UST holders whole given they have a whole ecosystem, and there’s a race to who gets to redeem UST into Luna? . That’s the practical question / answer.
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Got some DMs. Barry owns approximately 4% of GBTC and ETF not coming for some time - 4-5 years. Those bitcoins are stuck (unless 75% of shareholders vote to dissolve). I would not be surprised if GBTC trades at -65% in 2-5 weeks.
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Then he's releveraging again with $400mm. This time, however, its senior secured with all of $MSTR assets including his precious 92k BTC. Cocaine is a helluva drug. this man is all-in.
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$REI is the only play where I can see the entire market coping and seething that there was a liquid multi billion project (beside $ai16z) sitting in the trenches. SEND IT SO MUCH FUCKER HIGHER.
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I think a lot of you guys are going to take off time soon. But, also remember there’s a 1000+ ivy l kids, who can afford to take risk, are well connected, and are smarter than the avg Joe looking for break in. Treat this like a real job, because if you don’t, you’ll get lapped.
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I’m pretty mentally tapped out. I tweeted last month that SBF DC bill was causing me anguish. The hypocrisy is just stunning. I really don’t want to spend the next 3-5 years of my life 100% in this industry. Idk what I do next but. Yeah. tonight has cemented it.
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A friend of a friend apparently brought the HEX top and is down 90%… . I feel like this isn’t being talked about enough on CT.
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Once all my followers know I’m having seggs, I’m going private lmeooooowwwww
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There's no reason why:.-a tetra coin .-arbi szn coin .- FDV is a meme truly when 47% is a war-chest. Should be trading sub 20m market-cap.
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@Tetranode . One of the few whales who truly believed in: .- deep tech .- security and privacy .- fundamental analysis .- and the power of memes and having fun . It is a sad day. Will be missed on CT.
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Dissolve it. No takeover, no management. Redemptions immediately. Send it out of existence.
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I’m of the opinion that the frax time bomb was delayed but we likely see another CRV puke in the next 2-3 weeks. The counter point is that by distributing 8 fig CRV out to whales, they now have incentive to keep it afloat themselves.
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"We have spent over $16M of the community's book value funds on salaries in the last year.". I played the entire cycle wrong. shoulda literally just started some ponzi like protocol. what even. this is ragnorak on crack.
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Here's a list of people you should absolutely follow in DeFi . Real life oracles, if you ever want to zap the small pp energy out of your life:.@redphonecrypto - if Malcom X met crypto.@zhusu - if Sun Tzu and George Soros met crypto.
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Going private, reply guys are annoying and can’t have nuanced discussions about things. Risk picture has shifted completely and mental models need to be updated. But I can’t stand to here you resist the macro picture. Only mutual allowed to respond.
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9x .In the Decentralized wild wild west, there is no market regulator to step in. so we MUST be hyper critical and demand max. clarity on potential risk / games.The more we grow in the space, the more we're going to have dumb people try to make ez money. H/t @DegenSpartan
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Going to add one more point here. I was listening to UCC w/ @DegenSpartan and he spoke about his own personal exhaustion as a ‘top signal’. It’s counter intuitive, but the industry is innovating at pace that will actually cause its investors and participants to contract.
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“There are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: - Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2: Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1. “. @HowardMarksBook.
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If you follow me, I have quite an affinity with the psychology of market participants. This isn't a podcast about crypto directly. but it is very much about 'gamification', which will intersect w/ crypto-economic systems & NFTs. @gabrielleydon . 🧵below.
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I’m excited to announce I’ve accepted a position in the future of finance. 🫡
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Solana FDV coins have given their retail base so much PTSD. Will take months for them to recover that trust. By the time that happens, CeX -> L2 / EVM or IBC chains going to be an established thing.
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- "We just need to cool off" .- "This is the super-cycle" which is equivalent to "New Paradigm".- When traders post bearish takes on Buttcorn, everyone is butthurt.- "The Bull Market Just Started. " . sir, what planet are you on?.
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People that use on chain data don’t realize that: . - GBTC and other products have cucked these stats . - Derivatives markets much more mature . - Ability to move money from wallet to wallet adds another velocity variable that create a lot of noise . - More.
$BTC Price drops -10%: .No worries, on-chain data is bullish. $ETH Price drops 20%:.On-chain data is still very bullish. Everything drops -50%:.On-chain data is a scam.
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25x Btw… . Not everything is a Ponzi. That’s a cop out answer. A Ponzi scheme is when someone misleads you with ill intent and paints you a vision that they aren’t actively working towards. Not EVERYTHING is a ponzi, but yes, there are Ponzi schemes in our world.
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Holy Fuck.
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Have to recognize the greatest macro shift since 08/09. It’s kind of that simple. Goblin town probabilities are higher than ever. Trade counter if you dare.
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bro can't even articulate the case for crypto, simply wants the inflows.
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink: “More and more of our global investors are asking us about crypto”
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H/t @DataFinnovation for doing the great GBTC work, which is half the diagram. Added:.- More explanatory comments so if you're lost, you can follow.- Necessary linkage to Alameda + FTX (rumor: responsible for the Luna collapse), blowing up their fraudulent balance-sheet.
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Alright moving on from Terra, what’s everyone doing ? . My plan is to: .- learn python (first time coder) .- become more knowledgeable in bridging, cross chain messaging.- read through all the Rektd articles .- build out better portfolio management skills (DM if you can help).
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“HEX allows users to stake their HEX coins in exchange for a share of new HEX coin issuance or inflation.” . Going to end this thread here. Another gigantic ponzi (> $10 billion) — beside Luna — has been totally rektd and no one on CT is talking about it it.
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Not a bearish tweet. Just reminder that we get a better glimpse (potentially) to see what the relationships were like on a money basis.
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If ETH settles just as much txn as Visa, then it's worth approximately $10,000
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To clarify: 3AC nor any external party manages my 4 figure treasury. ❌.
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I’ve never been so spread out. And it really ruined my trading these last two months. Ngl, I’ve been on edge and more stressed out than ever. Seeing people make $$ on NFTs and I shit the bed on on some terrible moves. Worse, I called so many great plays. But poor execution.
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24x. I LOST A LOT of friends on this. I won't ever back down. This is WHY WE ANON. I say what I mean. and believe I have the best information to instantiate that claim until I'm proven or convinced I'm wrong.
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The fact that he can publicly tell his followers to block builders and legendary investors who seeded this space . is literal anathema to crypto ideology. And I won't stand by it.
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@ExaltedFoks We all talk about the winners, but so many bag holders holding coins down 75%+ . I feel like most people don’t make money in crypto. But everyone we know does? Odd thing to say. But I think being on CT w/ a prominent network at least means you near the benchmark.
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20x. I also did read all the Olympus docs etc. sometimes it just takes a DM and sometimes the founder can only communicate the true vision because man is giga-brained.
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To show good faith, to be more transparent, to clearly disclose compensation, to pre-announce the selling of vested equity, to hire a chief risk and public relations officer, to retain or intent to retain legal counsel, etc. I think this would move the industry to better place.
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