Akshat Jain
@akshat96jain
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founder @seecowealth • CFA L2 passed • fellow @stoahq
Chennai
Joined April 2011
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Pinned Tweet
It's the 11th edition of
@TIA_Investors
Bullet Proof Investing Seminar.
Here are the insights from the speakers:
The Woodstock of investing happens tomorrow in India's own Omaha. Value investing will always be celebrated here in Chennai. It sits well with our culture and ethos. And, thrives due to our own accomplished investors.
Hoping to meet all my friends from far and near. The biggest
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ICICI showing extreme desperation to get delisted.
Why is this wrong?
- Privacy - it's simply not OK to send bank RMs at doorsteps of minority shareholders;
- Force - they aren't just canvassing for votes, they're pressurizing to vote FOR & show the vote screenshot
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Here's a PDF version of the notes from
@TIA_Investors
20-20 Idea Summit (Feb 2024):
#TIA2020
20-20 2024 Ideas Summit by
@TIA_Investors
at
@iitm_respark
Disclaimer: none of the stocks discussed are recommendations.
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20-20 2024 Ideas Summit by
@TIA_Investors
at
@iitm_respark
Disclaimer: none of the stocks discussed are recommendations.
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Thread of stocks covered at 20-20 Ideas Summit by
@TIA_Investors
at
@iitm_respark
.
Disclaimer: none of these are stock reccomendations. Pls consult your advisor before acting on the discussion.
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Sharing verbatim notes from the 20-20 Investors meet yesterday by
@TIA_Investors
Click here to access -->
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Sharing running notes of
@TIA_Investors
Bullet Proof Investing Seminar 2019!
Click here ->
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Pursuant to Regulation 30, the BOD, on July 7, 2024 have proposed for the Amalgamation 💍 of Aayushi Shah (Acquirer) & Akshat Jain (Target).
The Scheme strengthens the positions of the entities and brings in synergies.
You are requested to kindly take the same on records! 😄
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No specific context, but if you imagine Indian investing without , you’d develop huge gratitude and respect to
@faltoo
and
@ayushmitt
for keeping most of it free! Each time I use it, I send a mental thank you note to you guys :)
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Sharing running notes of
@TIA_Investors
Investors Awareness Programme.
Mr Nalam Prasad on "A practical approach to investing" and Mr
@shyamsek
on "Microcap Investing - A minefield or a Goldmine".
NOTES -->
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Folks, happy to share that I've passed the L2 exam of the CFA Program!
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Notes from TIA Bullet Proof
9th September 2023, Chennai
@TIA_Investors
Speaker 1
Rajeev Thakkar
@RajeevThakkar
@PPFAS
Theme: Recent Developments in Artificial Intelligence & Investment Implications
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AB Capital. Was part of Indian rayon then got spun off and listed separately.
One of the largest nbfc loan book and started as a wholesale lending company. But post ilfs most of the wholesale lenders got de-rated. But here a transformation happened.
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Usually, a lot of insights get hidden behind the screen (screener).
A look at the below ROCE figures and it feels like they don't even cover the cost of capital. How can such a biz be interesting? (1/n)
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The first public appearance of Anil Goel Ji and in what style!
An excellent event by
@CFASocietyIndia
!
Notes from the session here:
The next episode of Meet the Market Masters is here!
Grab this opportunity to hear Anil Kumar Goel, Veteran Value Investor, to be moderated by Shyam Sekhar, Chief Ideator, ithought Financial Consulting LLP, happening on 8th Sept in Chennai.
👉
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There are many things on the internet that make you feel like "How can this be available for free!"
One of those has to be the
@capitalmind_in
podcast.
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A set of minority shareholders who would've otherwise not voted because they're not aware of the scenario, would now vote FOR the proposal due to pressure, tilting things in ICICI's favor just because they have feet on the ground.
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@TIA_Investors
Speaker 1: G Maran of
@unificapital
• More than stock name, investment approach must appeals more
• Tailwind - a wind that blows from behind a moving vehicle
• Example - pressure cooking co - what's the innovation? why did they deliver 0 returns for 10 years and then 60x?
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TIA Bullet Proof
9th September 2023, Chennai
Speaker 5 - Samir Rachh, Fund Manager
@NipponIndiaMF
@TIA_Investors
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Zomato: Hey, we're sorry that the restaurant/partner messed up your veg order & gave you non-veg. We're introducing a separate module for veg orders to better serve you.
Liberals: Let me add unnecessary angles to this and make myself sound dumber.
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@apeksha02
@indian_stockss
Hi all, Akshat here. I Took the notes here for a couple of othet fellow investors from Chennai. Glad that it came of use to the investing fraternity :) law of unintended consequences for sure!
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TIA Bullet Proof
9th September 2023, Chennai
Speaker 2 Manish Chokhani
@chokhani_manish
@TIA_Investors
#learnfromthemasters
#bulletproof2023
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Speaker 5: Abhijit Choksi
@stockifi_Invest
at
#TIA2020
• 20L crores in the next 20 years. This is what the government is going to invest in the ports / maritime sector
• Disclaimer
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TIA Bullet Proof
9th September 2023, Chennai
Speaker 8 Fireside Chat with Govind Parekh, moderated by
@shyamsek
@TIA_Investors
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S Naren, CIO
@ICICIPruMF
'Past' holds lessons from the present
6 bull markets since 1991, each with its own patterns. In 1991, if you avoided the Harshad Metha stocks, you would've made money.
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So the way to handle a concentrated bull market is to move money to sectors which are underbought.
You will underperform during the bull phase but eventually you'll make more money.
As a MF manager, it is a nightmare to handle othe people's money during this phase.
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Where can you find these Gorillas?
There are 5 kinds of management's
1. Lallus
2. Losers
3. Laggards - smart promoters, but poor at execution
4. Leaders - smart and can execute well
5. Legends - smart, execute well and are institutionalised - these 2 are Gorilla traits
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Don't evaluate yourself as an investor today. Today is not the day.
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When the single day upmove is 4x of your initial purchase price 🧐
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On a valuation basis, markets are meaningfully high.
Only banking - private sector is reasonably valued and FMCG is relatively cheaper.
All other sectors are at a significant premium to their historic average.
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People ask how can markets fall with 23000 crore SIPs per month?
But what we noticed is that derivatives has a much higher number and record mtf usage. Around 7 lakh crores.
In front of this, the 23000 crores is not big.
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I was lucky to attend this session at
@StoaHQ
with
@mukeshbansal06
. Moderated by
@chandrarsrikant
Here are some pointers from the session (written in 1st person)
• Mukesh Bansal. Founder - Myntra & Curefit ($bn+ valuation now)
• Author - hacking health
Never let a crisis go to waste.
What a powerful thought by
@mukeshbansal06
when he was describing how the pandemic allowed them to relook at their business.
Thanks
@chandrarsrikant
for hosting the fireside 🙏🏻
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The current bull market is like the 1994 bull market.
The 1994 market was reform led; SEBI got created; FIIs were liberalised and it was a liquidity led bull market.
However, it took 10 years since that bull run for the index to revert to mean.
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Eicher Motors
• How many households have a washing machine? 16% houses.
• Households with a bullet is 1.8%.
• 2 appeals - non motorcycle volume is 2000 crore, 10-15% of co and sells abroad too
• Just betting on demography and household income
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2007 was infra led; in the value discovery fund we were invested in non-infra stocks which rose post the subsequent crash. This fund also survived the financial crisis.
What worked in all these periods was avoiding the bull themes.
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You should been ok to look stupid for some time.
Don't be fully dependent on equities as a full time profession.
Don't use leverage; use asset allocation techniques.
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@vivbajaj
all speakers gave a thorough disclaimer:
1. They may be owning the stock from lower levels in own & client PFs
2. These are not stock recos
3. The purpose is solely to share their process. How they built a thesis for an idea they liked. Not to give buy calls
(1/2)
TIA2024
I am wondering why some of the stocks mentioned in TIA on Saturday witnessed high delivery on Friday.
Coincidence?
Don't be blind and buy on Monday. Buy some time and observe these.
Retweet for wider reach.
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Consensus of all speakers being that the next decade is India's.
I'm sure every participant walked out of the seminar with never felt before optimism about India! 🇮🇳
Here are some notes from the seminar:
(14/n)
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• Don't rely on consumption metric. Instead take your stock and look at its market segments.
• 4 segments - Rich (>30L), Middle class (5-30L), Aspirers (1.25-5L), Destitutes (<1.25L)
• Growth is high in rich, led by savings
• Middle class is breaking out, led by consumption
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20-20 Ideas Summit by TIA
@TIA_Investors
Speaker 2 Ravi Dharamshi
@ravidharamshi77
Kaynes Technologies
Electronic Manufacturing Service. EMS.
China has become middle income. Demographic issue due to one child policy. Labour scarcity and higher cost.
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Median midcap trailing PE is 46x, Small cap is at 44x - data is roughly correct.
Large cap as a % of total mcap has come down from 80%+ to 62%.
Market cap to GDP has gone up to 144%. Even if we remove large ipo outliers like lic, etc - it is still at 130%.
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How did the 1994 rally end?
1. Supply of paper exceeded demand;
2. MS Shoes controversy;
3. Asian Financial Crisis
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
The only trick is satisfaction, Vipassana.
Wealth is relative; so be happy with the money you have made.
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Closing remarks by Shyam Sekhar
@shyamsek
On is this the right time to invest and am I doing the right thing? + 4 things to focus upon for the small investor.
Highlight: "We can't predict if this is the right time, but
this is the right place to invest."
(13/n)
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The 1999-2000 bull run was IT led, IT Index went up 580% and fell by 71%. Whereas some consumption and non tech stocks actually went up.
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Where new management can change trajectory of the company. This situation provides situation of accelerated earnings growth.
For ex: TCS post 2009. Chandra gave us a 5x growth. Same with icici. So this is important to us when we look at Ideas.
Stock is Aditya Birla Capital.
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How to invest in a broad based bull market driven by liquidity?
Best way is to avoid low quality companies and invest after the bull market.
Taking learnings from 1994 bull run;
- Supply of paper will exceed demand
- Work on qlc - quality, liquidity and capitalisation of ur PF
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Visited the
@Zoho
HQ today. A bustling campus and 1000s of employees - all seemingly happy and positive. Realised why company culture is supreme.
---
I was invited by the Zoho Creator team for a podcast on how we use creator to streamline our processes. More on this soon!
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• The breakout is happening in hotels, travel, etc - not in toothpaste, detergents.
• Working age pop - has been growing and will grow until 2030 and then stabilise for another 20 years.
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@TIA_Investors
@unificapital
• Where do tailwinds come from?
1. Regulatory
2. Technology
3. Demography
Regulatory and Technology tailwinds can change overnight. Demographical tailwinds cannot change overnight. Will take 20-25 years to change.
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This time it's different?
Macros are great - external position is improving on all counts - tax collection & fiscal position is a big positive.
Banking sector's NPA is historically at its best.
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Speaker 14: Vivek Mashrani
@MashraniVivek
• Disclaimer: (own it, etc)
Poly Medicure
• 1115 cr revenue - reach in 8000+ hospitals, 125+ countries, 160+ devices, 3000 employees
• Largest exporter of consumable medical devices for 10 years
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Find companies with gorilla traits - intangibles + leadership + megatrends
Gorillas are rare, outsized as compared to monkeys
Gorillas are not challenged by monkeys
Gorillas have a lifespan double that of monkeys
Look for this longevity.
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As an investor, 20 years down the line,
If I were to look back and thank the people who enabled avg retail investors like you and me, to make most of 'The India opportunity', amongst a list of people such as the Mittal bros for
@screener_in
and the guys of ValuePickr, (1/n)
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20-20 Ideas Summit by
@TIA_Investors
Speaker 9 Ankit Kanodia
@kanodiaankit12
@SmartSyncServ
RateGain
New age companies is almost an abusive word nowadays. And market sometimes paints everyone with the same brush.
We look for an ancillary ka ancilliary when we look at a sector.
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We were waiting for a trigger like election result, gaza, Ukraine but none of these worked for valuations to correct.
Beauty of triggers is you never know what will turn out to be a trigger.
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@lalitinvestor
Fair observation!
- Post Grad Pressure - lot of folks begin careers only at 25+. Their prev gen got working probably at 21, so they could get married by 24-25
- Education inflation is a double whammy - it costs a lot more to study and then a lot more to have your kids study
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#BehindTheScreener
A couple of years ago we saw this at 1500cr mcap, when the core biz was almost trading for free and was giving you a growing biz with a great wc cycle.
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We don't seem to have a problem when an app launches a Gourmet section. Or a fine-dine module. Or a gluten free filter.
But if they launch a vegetarian module, we'll arrange the following words in random order: CaStEiSm, cApItAlIsM, DiScRiMiNaTiOn...
No company caters to a small market except for India where few communities hold the majority of wealth .
Free market casteism bhi dekh liya.
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The entire country is now only thinking of equity; everyone wants to get 20% return via equities. Nobody is seeing debt / private credit.
Mutual funds sahi hai, but not equity sahi hai.
Number of SME IPOs has boomed.
Secondary sales, preferential issues and QIPs are rising.
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Exactly what one shouldn't be doing - asking for SIP advice on twitter.
No context of income, goals, commitments, etc.
Further the replies leave you more confused.
It's like asking people what medicine to take without explaining your symptoms.
Consult a financial planner!
SIP lords! Suggest some good sip to invest in. 25-30k every month kind of investment.
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On sentiments, our thesis is in deep red;
1. COVID impact
2. Strong historical return
3. Better awareness
4. 2023 tax change for debt schemes
Now, debt taxation change has also made it difficult for investors to invest in debt.
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Speaker 3: Vidya Bala
@bala_vidya
of
@primeinvestorin
at
#TIA2020
The opportunity:
• PV (passenger vehicles) seen robust growth - 3rd largest market
• Mercedes Benz says 1/4 India volume is > 1.5 cr cars
• Premium car segment growth of 10%+ vs 4% mass market growth
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Speaker 4: Ankit Kanodia
@kanodiaankit12
of
@SmartSyncServ
Smart Sync at
#TIA2020
Car Trade Tech
• Disclaimer
• Last year presented Rate Gain, this year continuing with a new age co in the middle of a PSU euphoria
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Any liquidity led bull market can take years to recover and the 1990s liquidity led market is very similar to the bull run today.
In 1994-95, there were 100+ IPOs per year.
Value stocks did great in the bull run but crashed in the subsequent bear phase; similar to today's SMID
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Speaker 3 - Utpal Sheth of RARE Enterprises
Rakesh Ji used to always say that the mother of all bull markets are ahead of us. He used to also say that the greatest risk of investing in India is not investing in India.
There are some pockets of over excitement though.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Meanwhile, India's intensity of oil to GDP has crashed. Oil was at $150 and we couldn't bear this price rise, it became 14% of our economy.
Today India imports at $70 and it's just 3.5% of our economy.
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Icici has a framework that looks at valuation, cycles, triggers, sentiments and ownership. It helps to know where we are right now. VCTSO.
It helped identify sectors, triggers and timing.
It may not work in the short run as we gave a sell on SMIDs, but broadly it helps
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When you suddenly see more crowd at airports, malls etc is it because Indians are eating out more or more Indians are eating out?
It's because affordability has changed. Thanks to women participation in workforce.
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Women in 30-40 age consume way differently than they consumed before. And one interesting area is healthcare.
The stock idea is Narayana HealthCare.
Healthcare expenditure in india is rising. Especially high growth in last 5-6 years.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Risks can stem from disturbances in American / Chinese economies.
Also from state government fiscal positions.
There are also capacity concerns in judiciary. If we want to invite foreign capital in our industry, we don't have the judiciary capacity to handle contract disputes
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• The co is preparing for next leg of growth. Gotten into fluids to be used for EV (thermal, transmission, grease, etc). Also liquid immersion for data centers.
• MNC advantage - BP's expertise, JIO-BP JV
• Has OEM partnerships in EV - TaMo, MG for factory filling
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
US stock boom from 1970s was led by Regan allowing 401(k) to buy equities. It led to a multi year bullish phase with a few bear phases in between.
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True that 0.25% won't move needles, but it's the intent that people are questioning.
Funds speak of an investment process; so given mamaearth's fundamentals, where does it fit in the fund's process - this is what people are questioning. And I think it's fair...
Sorry but if a fund manager is putting 0.25% of the fund AUM in Mamaearth, how does it become a definitive judgement criteria?
Did we ask the same for all other stocks in the portfolio
eg. Nippon Small Cap fund has nearly 200 stocks. Can we name 10 of them?
Selective outrage?
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Corporate profits as a % of GDP is growing and it should reach 10% of GDP by 2030. So approx corporate profits should grow to $1 trillion.
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20-20 Ideas Summit by TIA
@TIA_Investors
Speaker 3 Vikas Khemani
@vikaskhemani
Magic Basket. What does it mean?
We have this framework. Big money is made when we get earnings growth and valuation re-rating.
Good biz, average or poor management and there is a change in mgmt
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
The 3rd foundation for our bull market is rising household participation in markets. We are still buying too much gold and too little equities.
US and Europe has 40-50% household participation in equities despite an ageing populace.
Japan - 12%
India - 9% - this may go to 20-30%
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Jokes aside, the biggest problem for veg only eaters is sensitivity.
The owner, chef or partner doesn't matter as much as long as we're sure that food is prepared and delivered in a sensitive way.
If you can ensure that, we don't really need separate green-red vehicles.
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• People try to explain the India growth story from that 17% exports, but they don't focus on the domestic private consumption.
• Sensitivity to global macros is less.
• Per capita consumption is not the right metric, because we are an inequal, diverse society.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
RBI had no targets until 2015; since then by law, it has a sole mandate to target inflation. Maybe no other central bank has such a dedicated mandate. This formed the basis for this bull market.
India has the least volatile inflation in the world.
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Key takeaways:
"Money itself isn't lost or made; it's simply transferred from one perception to another."
"Most overstimate what can happen in 2 years but underestimate what can happen in 10."
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Boarding passes, shopping, meetings, payments - It's interesting how most things are digital these days. Even solar! ☀
Recently, I came across SundayGrids - they claim to make solar investments easy for those without a rooftop. They have approached it differently.
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There are very few industries that can grow 30-40% for years and this is going to be one such industry in India.
Within EMS
PCB is a large opportunity.
Kaynes Technologies is like Gundappa Vishwanath. Another gem from Mysore.
Promoter was L&T Mysore Intern.
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• Where is India's growth coming from?
Typically we see manufacturing, services, agri, etc.
Instead, split into domestic 83% and exports 17%. And exports is de-growing. So growth is coming from domestic.
In this domestic, 62% comes from domestic private consumption.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Wealth redistribution was an important reason for inflation volatility earlier; now redistribution as a % of GDP has halved. Our poverty has also fallen.
So this is the foundation for our bull market. India's template is very different now.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
There's no 'bubble' in the IPO or credit markets; maybe a little froth in the sme or small cap space.
Sentiment - price - valuation - of course small caps look expensive. Large caps are relatively better.
Most indicators don't indicate a market peak.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
The 4th foundation is our banking sector has cleaned up and is now one of the most efficient in the world.
Yet the pvt banking sector has still not taken off in this bull market - RBI has got it's thumb on credit growth; it's trying to proactively prevent another NPA crisis.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Further, government was taking away liquidity from the system by buying treasury, etc.
But now the govt is expected to infuse liquidity into the system. This is the best time to buy the banks.
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@rndx1
@MorganStanley
Social equity - our infant mortality rates are falling; fertility rates are stabilising at 2, below replacement rates.
Nobody looks at this, but this is a phenomenal reason for the markets
Growth rates accelerate when fertility rates stabilize and women participation rises.
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@TIA_Investors
Speaker 1: G Maran of
@unificapital
• More than stock name, investment approach must appeals more
• Tailwind - a wind that blows from behind a moving vehicle
• Example - pressure cooking co - what's the innovation? why did they deliver 0 returns for 10 years and then 60x?
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The point is just browsing screener for high ROCE companies might not always be helpful. It pays to go beyond and behind the screens. (6/n)
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