Bill Marshal
@aethelamerican
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Following
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A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury
Joined May 2015
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@NateSilver538
Oh dear Republicans were ‘accidentally’ right three years before it was allowed to be acknowledged in polite society, on yet another issue, again
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@JStein_WaPo
This is all so absurd. Silicon Valley billionaires didn’t work tirelessly to get Vance on the ticket if they thought he’d be Liz Warren with a beard
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@JimVandeHei
He was an invalid in 2020, but there is no basement campaign to be run this time
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@RonBrownstein
Ron, Biden is leading most of the keys per Allan Lichtman, who has predicted every election. Let's not disseminate Putin's Propaganda
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@mdubowitz
Surprising to no one, the inmates running the asylum are not inclined to report the on the abhorrent behavior of other inmates.
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@IAPolls2022
Trump is polling better than any Republican in the summer of an election year since 1988
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@AlexThomp
If she gets the nomination she’ll never be asked a tough question ever again. It will be a tongue bath so shameless that it will make the media’s leg tingling in 2008 look like a small itch
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@kaitlancollins
lol you know he thinks he’s a certified badass with that *banger* of a last line. Dude is thirstier for a VP slot than a fish in the desert
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@LoganR2WH
1. Morning Consult are different polls; one is their daily, one is their weekly model
2. Survey USA result “pre-debate” was six months ago!
3. You reversed the topline margin on the DfP poll
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@igorbobic
Lol what a joke. There were over 100+ polls taken in 2020 for that senate race and he led in all but 7 of them!
In 2022 there were over 50+ and he led in all but 3 of them!
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@varadmehta
"Team Trump was totally unprepared for Harris"
"Team Trump is going to attack her for DEI and paper straws!"
"Team Trump has no answer for Harris campaigning as a prosecutor against a felon!"
So many Lib crackpipes being passed around the last 36 hours
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@AllanLichtman
The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and outbreak of war with Ukraine kind of negates that doesn't it?
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@IAPolls2022
@QPollsandnews
@Harris_X_
@Forbes
Just a normal ten point gap to erase with less than 100 days to go
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@ReubenR80027912
You are not about to pivot to a “Kamala will beat Trump” narrative, not while you’re in my timeline, lol
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@Politics_Polls
@cygnal
If Trump starts to poll outside MoE in multiple tipping point states the models are going to converge to 90%+ very soon
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@wanyeburkett
And yet they get the same number of votes as you and me. to influence policy for the largest most far reaching government in the history of the world. Awesome
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@umichvoter
I like how Pelosi retired from the leader of the House Dems in the same way Putin retired from office of the Russian president
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@AlexThomp
Probably would have just bloviated and lied about his son Beau “dying in Iraq” as he usually does in these situations
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@AllanLichtman
Professor Lichtman does this kind of editorializing potentially imperil the qualitative analysis inherent to your Keys methodology? Some very smart people are saying so
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@umichvoter
Lol this isn’t going to stop the bleeding. But hey he just has to run out the clock until July 18 or w/e? I think Jill and Hunter can pull that off
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@NateSilver538
Wait until the ads start airing this fall though, then voters will find out who this Donald Trump guy really is
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@umichvoter
Did they input the huge dem over-performance for the recent 1.5% turnout Spittle County dogcatcher race, though?
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@wanyeburkett
You authored the tweet on how much of society is stressed by having to accommodate the “bottom quintile” right?
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@JoshKraushaar
I like campaign managers whose candidates aren’t bodied so hard they drop out with three months until the election
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@NickNehamas
@reidepstein
@maggieNYT
Trump should absolutely not concede to any September debate conducted before 8pm. Just the headline of Biden rejecting any debate taking place after the sun has set is worth almost as much as a repeat debate disaster...
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@IAPolls2022
Trump just can’t stop polling outside the margin of error in Pennsylvania no matter the pollster
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@PpollingNumbers
Trump is now at 49% or higher in half a dozen polls. He's an inch from hitting the magic 50% mark at which point all the undecideds in the world don't matter
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@GarrettHerrin
@umichvoter
@EmersonPolling
Tipping point states are Trump+5 with several +3 results to spare. Well outside the margin of error too
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@jessesingal
He remade a party in his image, and arguably moved the broader American electorate, in a way no politician has done since FDR. Even Reagan didn’t have *this* level of devotion and wasn’t nearly as much a departure from the previous GOP as Trump.
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@PpollingNumbers
Trump being this close to 50% is more important than the margin. We were told for years his ceiling was 46% at best and now he's almost staked out a majority
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@abbydphillip
@Redistrict
@JohnKingCNN
The gold standard Big Penguin poll *just* came out with this today:
🟦 Joe Biden 52% (+4)
🟥 Donald Trump 48%
1,477 LV. 7/12 - 7/15. 2.9% MoE
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