mets17
@adar170
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$XBI
after extreme awful Q2 personally some lesson i hope i learnt:
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$PFE
since Boura did lucky covid deal...
$TRIL buyout 2.2 billion in trash
$GBT massive overpay
$BHVN overpay
$SGEN massive overpay
loosing RSV race to GSK big time
in 2021 claimed to be GTX leader now divested it
Gave away 75% of TL1A for free
missed glp-1
time for new ceo
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$XBI $ARKG
2022
Predictions sure to go wrong if i get 1 right ill call success
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$XBI
life of biotech investor:
its too many IPOS
its rates
its no m&a
its clinical failures
its PIPES
its Obesity
its XBI rebalance
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Wild year for BIg Pharma
$PFE -42%
$BMY -35%
$LLY +62%
$NVO +50%
Bayer & $SNY had a single day -20%
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$SMMT ~18.7 billion market cap
has any company ever traded > 10 billion pre initiation fda approved phase 3 trial design?
not to mention when it does readout SOC going generic !
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Post JPM selloff in crowded M&A names gonna be fun
$BPMC $APLS $IMVT $CYTK $XENE $BBIO $ACAD
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The great Roche/genetech hitting a wall bmy style
All in on tigit 😡
IL-6 Enspryng 😡
Let roiv buy TL1a for free then paid 7.2 billion
Very weak pd-1
Paid top dollar for FMI
Seems $once deal = 0
Spread this to ex employees becoming CEOs @ $gild & $bayer
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history repeating itself again popular names on twtr
3 months
$CYTK -35%
$APLS -35%
$VKTX -33%
$IMVT -25%
$BBIO -21%
$XBI -13%
non pop names
$INSM +100%
$PTCT +25%
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$CYTK
never under estimate stupidity of big pharma
also never underestimate a CEO ego
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$SNY
Paul Hudson moves as ceo
Buys
$THOR 2.5 billion = 0 today
$TBIO 3.5 billion = 250m today
Sold entire stake in $REGN for 515 per share 11.7 billion which today is worth 16.5 billion today
$PRVB 2.9 billion - 1 billion maybe
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just a normal monday if you have been in small bio last last 3 years maybe i m numb to this?
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$VKTX
do analyst listen to calls?
PFE no balance sheet for VKTX
AMGN has own asset
AZN has their own asset
maybe MRK
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@BackAftaThis
Don’t you find it ironic the guy is bashing gambling with draft kings all over ether screen ?!? :)
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$XBI taking CPI break to discuss some overhyped busts in past 10 years
1. Biosimilars
2. Gtx
3. crispr
4. allo-car-t
5. Mrna cure for all diseases
6. liquid biopsy
7. AI drug discovery
8. Obamacare bad for managed care
9. New age in biotech so lets fund preclincal hype
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$bbio
Neil K has cult odd following but other then mess up shareholders not sure why
Outbids gsk for eidx into 6mwt could have cleaned up Bbio b/s
Does buyback ath into aca 6mwt
left scrambling for cash sells off prv & assets
Doesn’t raise ath after attr hit
Self dealing spins
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$XBI is bad but some Bigger pharma are struggling as well
near 52 week lows
YTD
$PFE -42%
$BMY -30%
$SNY -7.8%
Roche -18%
$BIIB -18%
$ABBV -13%
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$vktx 350m offering going to 500 +
$janx 175m offering going to 300+
$crnx 350m pipe
$aplt 100m pipe
$vtvt 51m pipe
Are we back
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$LLY
rip $HIMS
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$verv -27%
Scientists love this science projects
Markets valuing it as science project
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$ROIV
kind of confirms Mayukh orchestrated heist of decade with RVT-3101 heist cash bonus of ~1.5% of deal
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$ROIV
since inception
AXON -F
ABUS -f (maybe Hail-mary)
Sumotomo partnership A
VTAMA B
$UROV A
$MYOV A+
TL1A 1000%x
$IMVT - A
Datavat - A
so trades @ -3 billion ev ( imvt stake)
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$NVO paid ~1 billion for inversago
-28 billion in market cap on AE profile
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$SMMT
Baker brother piped the $SMMT 200 @ 9 betting on duggan again hit homerun on $PCYC
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$PFE $LBPH $ARNA
PFE strikes again instead of buying arna for stupid price should have bought LBPH or kept shares
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Just my 2cents on this week
Instead of obsessing over the 1 or 2 buyouts that may or may not happen
Focus on company hitting timelines
& mgmt cadence during presentations
$xbi
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$SMMT +137%
5 billion market cap
guess investor forgot that FDA doesn't recognize chinese data
but they can ask
EQRX BGNE NVS LLY CHRS how it worked
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$tsvt
Finally activist to get these crooks out
Best letter since sonic $advm
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$GPCR
why take this when i can make home cocktail smoothie with spoiled milk and get same result ?
$VKTX - should be up 10 percent today on $GPCR slide here - wow who would ever take this
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$ctlt
Here comes Elliot gonna fire everyone and sell this to pe
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marketcaps
$BIIB 28 billion
$SMMT 23 billion
$BMRN 16 billion
$UTHR 15 billion
$NBIX 12 billion
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ASCO winner:
$CRBP +13%
$OLMA +16%
$RCUS +10%
$SMMT +5%
$MRUS +4%
Loosers
$CRBU -24%
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$vktx
Dumb Q is it maybe too safe?
Isn’t vomit & Diarrhea rates helping
Glp1 work
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2023 IPOS
$ABVX -30%
$TSBX -78%
$RZYB -30% (1st trade)
$SGMT -71%
$APGE -36% ( 1st trade)
$SLRN -44%
$MLYS -50%
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Cant remember a more extreme er season for pharma medtech in long time
$DXCM -40%
$EW -35%
$MRNA -15%
$MRK -10%
$apls - 10.5%
$BMY +10%
$PFE +7%
$EXAS +20%
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Q2 off to rough start for XBI
inflation ain't going away
$IRON fail
$GRTS fail
$VERV back to drawing board
CMS budget increase lower than anticipated
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Under previous ceo Giovanni Caforio BMY
- had pd-1 lead but screwed up Lung cancer trial & lost to mrk
-paid 74 billion for CELG
-gave NKTR 1.85 billion over handful of patients
-Paid 13 billion for MYOK yikes
-tried to buy MRTX for 12 billion got it for 5 billion
$BMY
so other then Sotykutu nothing developed by internal BMY
where is all r&d going ??
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$slno + 16% on no adcom
Assuming $bbio would have same move if no adcom
Just kidding
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$ROIV
valuation 7.6 billion
cash ~6.5 billion
$IMVT stake 2.8 billion
hmm when do they do buyback ?
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$ROIV trading like $GLPG
trading @ cash market valuing 3 billion $ stake in IMVT @ 0
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These biotech vc numbers crazy how many will even be able to ipo in 2022?
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so $LLY data which shows decrease in body weight helps avoid diabetes how shocking ?? isn't it cheaper to eat healthy & work out??
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Didn’t work well in golf or soccer but if then want to buy my shitcos by all means
Saudi Arabia has launched a national biotech strategy in an effort to become an international biotech hub within the next 16 years.
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Legit Q for the everyone:
$LBPH had great data why did it take the buyout to move $DRUG & not the readout from $LBPH ?
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$rxdx let’s bring band back together sure always works out so well round 2
Guess vc never heard of
$vrus/ $cmrx $abus
$kite / $allo
$cougar / clvs
$mdvn / $axon $nuvb
$rcpt / $goss
$rxdx / $eras
$thor / $sbtx
$avxs / $tsha
$hznp / $slrn
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another BP private deal sad
$LLY to buy GPCR targeting small molecule radiopharmaceuticals 140m u/f and option to buy 1 billion
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The value of X right here
$axsm
@CulperResearch
1) 60d payment terms, gross to net discounts result in A/Rs that are roughly a quarter of revenues, this is business as usual. 2) you seem to insinuate in your report that it was bad you got mailed drug within a couple days, it is a sad state of affairs when a person expects to
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why does $RXRX trade higher than $SDGR ?
$SDGR drug discovery proven
Nimbus - tak tyk-2 4 billion u/f
MORF - LLY 3.2 billion u/f
Nimbus - gild 400m u/f
Agio - servier 1 billion u/f
RXRX gets money from NVDA to buy NVDA chips
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$apls
Poster child why biotech so
Hard
Hits on data
Fda approval with generous label
Excellent launch
Then safety issues blows up all the good work
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$NSTG $NVTA
the Genomics bubble was impressive
both ch11 today
billions raised billions lost mgmt laughing to bank
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$lrmr $ocul
@buysidebio
took a lot of heat on both names happy for him both turned around Bigly
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$SRNGU
Ginkgo Bioworks is working on optimizing the manufacturing process for RNA – the key ingredient in vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNtech and Moderna. RNA instructs cells to produce proteins that trigger the body to fight the coronavirus.
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$xbi $alpn
Fund are piling $ in2 “superstar” ceo based off selling a company to BP maybe that should change
$alpn ceo M Gold was considered a failure in industry for $dndn high profile ch11
Perhaps past failure doesn’t guarantee future failure
So never give up!
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$rvnc ipo was 16 bought out -62.5% later 6.66 hard to compete v king Botox
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I thought $pfe was cutting expenses cutting jobs then spent 20m on this ?
$PFE spent $14MM on this Super Bowl Commercial, we are so back
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