A4Alpha
@a4_alpha
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Following
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Activist Investor. Retired Investment Banker. When people panic, I buy. Don’t buy anything without a thesis to buy and sell first.
New York, USA
Joined March 2020
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My thoughts:
• Thinly traded weekends have hurt
#energy
investors in the past
• Crack spreads confirm a tight market
• Earnings will be strong. Buy/backs & insider activity healthy
• WTI > $80-90 is very good
• Fundamentals in tact.
• Buy on red. No need to panic sell.
27
18
242
Whomever is responsible for the attack on
#Nordstream
pipelines just made the value of Canadian energy much more valuable.
I cannot tell you when day to day headline risks will stop, but I can assure you the energy markets will end much higher.
Thank you.
#OOTT
16
18
221
TMF, 🇨🇦
#energy
stocks are set to move meaningfully higher. More participants are entering for the right reasons. Energy offers
#inflation
protection & rising FCF. Virtually no sector can compete during this environment. Stay patient. Thank you
#OOTT
9
18
214
TMF, I want to wish you all a Merry. For those who kept me company here, I thank you. The power of numbers & the human mind is incredible. Learn & appreciate one another. Give back & remember that life is intended to harden you. Enjoy every moment with your loved ones. Thank you.
22
4
181
TMF, stay patient. $MEG $CNQ $CPG $SU $CVE (soon) returning FCF faster. Retail may trade but bigger flows will buy. Why? Rate of FCF change will accelerate meaningfully. There are ETFs, Funds, required to target exact metrics of growing earnings & FCF. Wait & see.
Thank you.
12
7
163
TMF,
#oil
markets are ignoring positives company results, supply data, & weather (coming). All focus on fear. Our companies produced record profits & will continue to do so. Stay firm as old entrants leave & new buyers emerge. This will be among their best chances. Thank you.
7
12
140
#Energy
stocks are facing illiquid market conditions. Unemployment remains strong. Fears of a bad recession high. Prices are not factoring any positive catalysts. They will come. Many names are cancelling debt & increasing buybacks. The thesis for great earnings in 🇨🇦 remains.
8
7
136
Very important consideration for
#energy
investors in
#Canada
🇨🇦
Political risk improving is not priced into any valuations I see today. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Trudeau would rather import 130,000 barrels of overseas oil a day, from places like Saudi Arabia, than make more energy here in Canada.
Conservatives will support clean, ethical energy right here at home and stop importing oil from overseas within 5 years!
2K
3K
13K
11
12
130
TMF,
#energy
markets are overreacting to balance of supply & demand. SPR is low. China/India demand growth. Conflict in ME. I cannot explain why this is happening but I can tell you with confidence I am not worried. This time is not different. Buyers on fear are rewarded most. TY
9
10
135
TMF, as the
#crude
draws resume, consider that
#energy
is going into a seasonally strong period.
If you doubt the need for energy, consider
#COP
target dates, recent M&A, & drop in renewable adoption.
Energy will be the trade of the decade. Invest confidently. Thank you.
#OOTT
EIA (wk ending 8 Dec)
Crude: -4.259M
Cushing: 1.228M
Gasoline: 0.408M
Distillates: 1.494M
5
23
140
7
13
133
TMF, chin up. You are having an incredible year of outperformance. The thesis for long
#energy
is in tact. One week does not change a fundamental back drop. If you care to discuss I am happy to listen. Life happens for you. Take advantage of what you know is to come. Thank you.
24
8
132
TMF, do not fear volatility. Should you feel the
#inflation
story is over, you are best to sell commodities.
If you feel inflation will be persistent, this your is your time to buy. I am adding to $CVE $WCP positions today on attractive pullbacks.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
17
6
133
TMF, patience in $CVE has rewarded
#investors
with impressive
#earnings
. A healthy increase in the dividend but my favorite aspect is the
#communication
of future free cash flow. Welcome any comments to share recommend
#oil
#gas
from
#Canada
🇨🇦 to all.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
17
5
124
Absolutely correct. You cannot fix a supply problem with words or policy. It takes money, boots, and will. This administration is going to make
#oil
#gas
investors, who are patient, very wealthy. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
6
11
119
TMF, more M&A with $OXY news.
#Energy
markets trading down on thin volume. Consider these deals would not happen if there was any indication of demand waning. We have seen these pullbacks before. I will be selling from other areas of my portfolio to add to energy. This will pass.
12
6
125
Pleased to see
@CanoeEnergy
and I compete for the same shares of $CVE in recent weeks. I have now doubled my position & welcome a 100% FCF return in 2023.
TMF, those following from the start would know this is my top position. Patience will continue to pay. Thank you.
#OOTT
9
3
122
TMF,
#oil
prices & stock fundamentals are disconnected. A strong USD is creating a flash crash in
#commodities
. Time will tell if the source of the drawdown, but from data alone, this is not a sustainable drawdown for WTI. Expects
#stocks
to outperform commodity & buy if you can
11
7
120
TMF, sentiment on
#oil
&
#commodities
are negative today and based on
#inflation
fears and rising interest rates.
If you wish to protect yourself, own investments that are in short supply.
#oil
is the best of all. Buy
#stocks
on red as always.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
5
5
121
TMF, thank you. I had been very skeptical of spending my days online, but have been thankful to connect w/many. It makes me happy to engage w/young & inspired investors.
2021 was a good year, but the best is yet to come.
Be kind to others.
Merry Christmas & see you in 2022.
28
0
116
TMF, the reaction to the recent data coming out of EIA and API on energy demand leads me to believe big draws are coming. Stay patient. Thank you.
5
4
116
TMF,
#macro
headlines of
#recession
are causing significant pressure in all commodities. Stay patient as lower prices will albeit ensure less supply at a time markets need it. We know this due to impact of
#SPR
vs demand. Drawdowns exacerbate the LT supply problem. Thank you.
13
9
113
TMF, patience for $MEG shareholders has been rewarded. It has overtaken $CVE and grown to my largest position. Thank you.
6
3
110
The global oil market is not ready for what's coming. The US has, in essence, subsidized the rest of the world via SPR release and elevated crude exports. That's all about to end as US crude storage gets tight.
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