TMF,
#oil
#gas
equities are no longer trading on fundamentals. I expect companies will use this weakness to buyback stock. Energy is expected to remain strongest area of the market.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
My thoughts:
• Thinly traded weekends have hurt
#energy
investors in the past
• Crack spreads confirm a tight market
• Earnings will be strong. Buy/backs & insider activity healthy
• WTI > $80-90 is very good
• Fundamentals in tact.
• Buy on red. No need to panic sell.
Whomever is responsible for the attack on
#Nordstream
pipelines just made the value of Canadian energy much more valuable.
I cannot tell you when day to day headline risks will stop, but I can assure you the energy markets will end much higher.
Thank you.
#OOTT
TMF, 🇨🇦
#energy
stocks are set to move meaningfully higher. More participants are entering for the right reasons. Energy offers
#inflation
protection & rising FCF. Virtually no sector can compete during this environment. Stay patient. Thank you
#OOTT
TMF, as I depart for
#Canada
for Christmas with family, I wish you all a safe & happy holiday season. You did very well in 22. 23 should be more of the same. Our thesis is intact. In fact, those paying attention will see that it has improved. To many, Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the thesis continues.
#Oil
#Gas
from
#Canada
is on the radar of global investors. Rising rates & inflation require a pivot to growing FCF investments & this is exactly the space investors will be rewarded. Stay patient. We have many green days ahead. Thank you
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#oil
stocks will outperform the commodity. Headlines created a 35% drawdown in WTI vs <10% for stocks. $80-90 wti allows rapid debt payments. Expect record Q1 earnings & FCF.
I have added to 4 of 7 positions this morning & encourage all to buy on red.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
TMF, the global
#energy
markets awake to a realization that
#KSA
&
#OPEC
will not allow
#oil
prices to drop below $90. Oil above $80 is a meaningful move ⬆️ for 🇨🇦 energy. Refiners & companies with high but melting debt will outperform. Congrats to buyers on red. Thank you.
#OOTT
TMF, they will want your
#energy
stocks as
#inflation
causes socialist policies to unwind. There is no better place to be than
#energy
today. Stay patient as the re-rates to $90 decks have not happened as of yet. Meaningful move to come. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, I am reading a lot of happiness about
#oil
investments tonight.
Please know this is not a good reason for oil to jump, and I pray for the world, and people of
#Ukraine
. As I go to bed sad tonight, I will pray for a more hopeful tomorrow.
#OOTT
#EFT
TMF,
#energy
markets are not stupid. A build due largely to weather/exports is not easily replicable. Markets look forward & see a growing demand from
#China
#India
& a lack of new supply. Shale production has peaked. 🇨🇦 requires TMX LNG. Time is running thin for low prices.
TMF,
#energy
stocks are green while the commodity is red. The market is recognizing the significant FCF companies are earning behind higher commodity pricing. $CVE is an example. Improving balance sheet & income statement from refining & crack spreads.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, I want to wish you all a Merry. For those who kept me company here, I thank you. The power of numbers & the human mind is incredible. Learn & appreciate one another. Give back & remember that life is intended to harden you. Enjoy every moment with your loved ones. Thank you.
$CVE is worth > $40/share. There are segments of this business that investors are receiving for free, and a FCF structure that will return 100% to investors in the coming 3-6 months. Refer to the charts, and ask yourself if you believe in the thesis. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, do you see the news in
#energy
markets? Exactly. This time is not different. Election results do not change an undersupplied market. Recession fears on rising rates does not change supply issues. Buy with confidence.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, shorts are being lifted in
#energy
#stocks
. Physical market remains favorable to bullish sentiment. With
#earnings
in view, expect many names to outperform well over the coming weeks. A recession narrative will not stop this train.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, WTI avg’d > $100 in Q2. USD to CAD during this time enabled the avg 🇨🇦 energy co to reap huge FX gains. Expect ⬆️ NCIBs, ⬇️ debt, & ⬆️ dividends. All = 💰 for you.
Earnings season will be very impressive. Stay patient as the best is yet to come.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the world fears a recession. This will not bring supply online. Demand may shift but crack spreads show strength out on the curve. Demand will surprise & Energy earnings revisions will pay dividends in a market of re-ratings. Buy 🇨🇦 on red as I am.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, Buy on red.
For Canadian
#oil
stocks, it really is this simple. The good times have not started yet. FCF will be incredible. Expect higher inflation and rates.
#Oil
is the best trade in this environment with Canada the best jurisdiction.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, Buy on red. Been a long time since I’ve added to every position & I am happy to do so. Your
#oil
stocks are not going anywhere but to the bank. Remain patient
#OOTT
#EFT
Thank you.
Today I added to 3 positions in my
#energy
portfolio in advance of Q1 earnings. I expect all to outperform the market as energy will this year.
If you believe that
#supply
will continue to outstrip
#demand
, today is your opportunity to
#buy
on red.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
#Energy
stocks contain much better breadth than the broader markets. This a sign of strength. Weather aside, this is the interim low for
#energy
stocks. Demand is strong in shoulder season for historic draws. Buy on red with confidence.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Happy
#Canada
Day TMF in 🇨🇦
Our friendship continues to grow. I have enjoyed many new friends & seen a shift in energy sentiment. Congrats to the
#COM
. A remarkable group that 🇨🇦 should embrace.
Expect many great years ahead for
#energy
investors.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, today is the first time I have added to every position in my 🇨🇦
#oil
portfolio. The selling is largely due to non energy related losses. Earnings will be strong. Stick with your thesis.
Thank you
#OOTT
TMF,
#energy
is the only investment in the world that is working. We discussed this many times. No new supply, political will, & level demand growth
Ask yourself, what do you expect to change, in order to determine how you long you expect this investment to last. Thank you
#OOTT
TMF, $CVE $MEG & 🇨🇦
#energy
names have reported fantastic
#earnings
. Will their share prices continue to rise? Yes.
Earnings rationale is sustainable, repeatable, & only going to improve with less debt & higher FCF.
Congratulations & stay patient.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, price action is not something I can forecast. Data supports
#oil
. Valuations support 🇨🇦
#stocks
. Sentiments are negative. My wish has been for you to buy on red. Those who have over time have been rewarded. Fossil fuels are not going anywhere for decades. Trust your thesis.
TMF,
#oil
markets are ignoring positives company results, supply data, & weather (coming). All focus on fear. Our companies produced record profits & will continue to do so. Stay firm as old entrants leave & new buyers emerge. This will be among their best chances. Thank you.
TMF, I appreciate the discomfort in volatile
#stocks
. I have read insight & speculation on
#energy
.
A reminder:
• Financials count
• Reversion & consolidation can be larger & still healthy
• Watch insiders
• Focus on macro fundamentals
• Be kind
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#energy
stocks are up after
#Biden
tours. The narrative of supply increases will dissipate & reality of tight markets will remain. Do not fear illiquidity & volatility w/a multi-year thesis. Headlines will come & go. Facts & figures stay consistent. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, time to reflect. When/Why did you buy? Why did you hold?
What has changed in your thesis? What has improved?🇨🇦
#oil
#gas
continues to offer best risk/reward in the market.
Don’t let volatility/illiquidity steer you. Fundamentally, the best days are ahead
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, $CVE shareholders should be pleased. Net debt now at $5.1b, strong upstream operations & smart application of FCF. Refinery business requires upkeep & will improve. As of now, this remains the best valued
#energy
name in 🇨🇦. My position has only increased. Thank you
#OOTT
TMF, refilling our SPR is exceedingly
#bullish
for
#oil
prices. Although
#stocks
outperformed the commodity in recent months, I now expect both to move higher. Truly an astonishing move by the
#Biden
administration, and likely due to no
#Iran
deal.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, fear not a recession or rising rates. If the issue is demand, know that it is growing. If the issue is supply, know that the supply issue is not getting solved. What happens in between is based on emotions. Stay confident. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, we are in draw territory. For those who have been following, this is the time you have been waiting for. Crack spreads confirm this and of course price action. Those with the most patience will reap the biggest rewards.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, a massive
#EIA
draw helps to affirm speculation of previous data.
#energy
bulls may have a big few weeks ahead should the next print confirm momentum of a tightening market with strong demand. Expect stocks to continue to outperform the commodity in anticipation. Thank you.
TMF, do not trade for breadcrumbs when patience can afford you a bakery. Expect and embrace volatility. Maintain a quiet confidence that the world is waking to the realization of a lack of energy investment. Enjoy earnings season.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, energy prices & stocks are on the rise. The ability for companies to materially pay down debt & increase FCF has increased substantially. Expect many companies to experience a positive re-rating. This will begin the next phase of stock price moves. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
#Energy
stocks are facing illiquid market conditions. Unemployment remains strong. Fears of a bad recession high. Prices are not factoring any positive catalysts. They will come. Many names are cancelling debt & increasing buybacks. The thesis for great earnings in 🇨🇦 remains.
Very important consideration for
#energy
investors in
#Canada
🇨🇦
Political risk improving is not priced into any valuations I see today. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Trudeau would rather import 130,000 barrels of overseas oil a day, from places like Saudi Arabia, than make more energy here in Canada.
Conservatives will support clean, ethical energy right here at home and stop importing oil from overseas within 5 years!
TMF,
#energy
markets are overreacting to balance of supply & demand. SPR is low. China/India demand growth. Conflict in ME. I cannot explain why this is happening but I can tell you with confidence I am not worried. This time is not different. Buyers on fear are rewarded most. TY
TMF, as the
#crude
draws resume, consider that
#energy
is going into a seasonally strong period.
If you doubt the need for energy, consider
#COP
target dates, recent M&A, & drop in renewable adoption.
Energy will be the trade of the decade. Invest confidently. Thank you.
#OOTT
TMF, chin up. You are having an incredible year of outperformance. The thesis for long
#energy
is in tact. One week does not change a fundamental back drop. If you care to discuss I am happy to listen. Life happens for you. Take advantage of what you know is to come. Thank you.
TMF, your patience is paying off. FCF yields improving, debt decreasing, & global macro factors undeniable.
#Shale
is in a secular decline. The market has not priced this in to stocks. Stay long reserves that are quality and paid for.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, do not fear volatility. Should you feel the
#inflation
story is over, you are best to sell commodities.
If you feel inflation will be persistent, this your is your time to buy. I am adding to $CVE $WCP positions today on attractive pullbacks.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, a time to reflect. We understood the importance of
#energy
during COVID, a lack of new investments, & now the scarcity of acquiring energy.
People ask why
#Canada
? I trust that you now can appreciate why & how much further we have to run.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, you have not missed the move in
#energy
equities, I implore you to look at $CVE chart & inside buy & position of the buyer. Insiders know a company, upcoming earnings, and future prospects the best. There is no bigger vote of confidence
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#oil
price volatility spikes w/headlines. A strong USD, Libya online, Nordstream flowing at a time Paper markets are thinly traded (eg bigger swings). For our thesis, every day above $90 is magic to melt debt. Stay patient & buy on red if you can. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Congrats 🇨🇦
The market is waking up to your
#oil
. Heavy will be in high demand, over supply low, demand increasing, and FCF from many companies.
The breakout continues. Thank you
#OOTT
TMF,
What is a bad day now? Patient investors are rewarded almost daily in the
#Canadian
#Energy
space.
The irony is that many people will avoid
#oil
or give up on companies due to a past experience. You can not feel safer than in this sector now.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the risk to
#energy
prices is ⬆️. Physical inventory is very tight. High prices will lead to unrest (think Libya/Iraq) while there is still no supply response to meet demand. A recession will be much milder on
#energy
prices than in previous cycles. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, a big congratulations to my friends in 🇨🇦. Many of our favorite companies are on the cusp of meaningful shareholder returns. The
#energy
sector presents fantastic risk adjusted opportunity for income and growth. Next chapter begins for FCF returns. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, focus on the message of
#OPEC
cut > volume. A clear signal that
#energy
producing nations are aligned. They’re incentivized to keep prices elevated as macro factors & gov intervention will do anything to lower them. Advantage: 🇨🇦 producers. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the wait is over. 🇨🇦
#oil
companies have reduced debt, held production, improved balance sheets, +FCF to investors, & now have egress. The top in
#energy
is no where close. The charts on $MEG $ATH and many more confirm it. Expect midcaps to shine.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Absolutely correct. You cannot fix a supply problem with words or policy. It takes money, boots, and will. This administration is going to make
#oil
#gas
investors, who are patient, very wealthy. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Why are
#oil
prices holding up so well in the face of broader equity & credit market weakness? Because years of *structural* underinvestment in O&G will trump any shorter-term cyclical factors. The shortage of refined products is not a quick fix. Stay the course
#OOTT
#ONGT
TMF,
#energy
price volatility is not new. The reaction of share prices demonstrates that many more investors see the value investing in
#oil
#gas
as there is no supply fix. Balance sheets continue to improve on red days & so is your opportunity to add. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, more M&A with $OXY news.
#Energy
markets trading down on thin volume. Consider these deals would not happen if there was any indication of demand waning. We have seen these pullbacks before. I will be selling from other areas of my portfolio to add to energy. This will pass.
TMF,
#oil
markets will overreact to
#OPEC
news. It has been nearly 1 year, but the time to buy is now. On red. The fundamentals support unwinding of cuts slowly. 🇨🇦
#energy
remains the best quality for price available. I have added 4 of 6 this morning. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
Pleased to see
@CanoeEnergy
and I compete for the same shares of $CVE in recent weeks. I have now doubled my position & welcome a 100% FCF return in 2023.
TMF, those following from the start would know this is my top position. Patience will continue to pay. Thank you.
#OOTT
Fantastic results from $MEG. $70 netback is truly impressive but debt targets within reach for 2022 will make a lot of investors happy with the use of future FCF. The future is near.
$CVE $MEG are my largest holdings for those who continue to DM.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, if
#Exxon
earnings were well received, wait until the market sees what comes out of Canadian
#oil
🇨🇦
I expect material FCF growth and strong guidance.
Exactly what the market is looking for during conditions of rising rates.
Thank you
#OOTT
TMF, the breakout continues in 🇨🇦
#oil
stocks. Soon it will be in every momentum ETF and MF as managers will need to add to not miss on returns. The fundamentals are only improving so do not be scared of the money you stand to make.
Thank you
#OOTT
TMF,
#oil
prices & stock fundamentals are disconnected. A strong USD is creating a flash crash in
#commodities
. Time will tell if the source of the drawdown, but from data alone, this is not a sustainable drawdown for WTI. Expects
#stocks
to outperform commodity & buy if you can
TMF, closing with this much strength is historically very
#bullish
for
#energy
stocks.
#Canada
continues to outperform.
Happy Easter to all of you. Please remember to give to those in need.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
• It is ok to trade. It is ok to hold.
• If you do not have money to invest, do not trade like you do.
• Buy on red. Always.
• Be respectful of those who paved your path, question those who govern, & seek personal development every day.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, another crude draw and $74 WTI. With draw season nearing close, the bottom may be forming. I have added to 3 positions this morning. $CPG $CVE $WCP.
$MEG $ATH remain must owns with WCS differentials set to narrow significantly.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#energy
market direction is puzzling. $71
#WTI
& $60 valuations on many companies. Ride the volatility as there is no structural shift in thesis. Sentiment is weak with inflation, China & production up. Expect reversals on all
This too shall pass. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the volatility will be fierce. No reason to run away from
#energy
. Stocks were not getting full value for the price of WTI before & balance sheets were far worse.
Interest rate fears put strength in USD.
#Biden
team wants lower oil to combat bullish fundamentals. Patience.
TMF, sentiment on
#oil
&
#commodities
are negative today and based on
#inflation
fears and rising interest rates.
If you wish to protect yourself, own investments that are in short supply.
#oil
is the best of all. Buy
#stocks
on red as always.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the equities are outperforming the commodity in the energy trade and will until headlines simmer. With Q2 showing robust FCF & debt reduction, it is recommended to buy on red. Many balance sheets will never be the same. “We have been here before”. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#China
is a necessary evil for
#energy
prices. The longer the
#lockdown
the less likely
#oil
prices reach recessionary levels. Everyday > $80 is a gift & will allow 🇨🇦 to pay debt debt & return FCF. Stay patient & buy on red. I added again today.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the headline risks to
#oil
will not effect the growing FCF of
#stocks
.
Ceasefire = good
RUS will not trusted again.
OPEC will not raise on the back of
#China
lockdowns. Temporary.
🇨🇦 names are among top performers > 1-2 years. Expect more buyers. Supply is very tight.
TMF,
#energy
equities will continue to outperform the paper markets. We have strong
#earnings
to look forward too. Recall > $100+ WTI for Q2 & a stronger USD. 🇨🇦 names report USD back in CAD & be in a position to reduce debt & return FCF faster than expected. M&A next. Thank you.
TMF,
#China
lockdowns are keeping a lid on
#oil
prices. This is not going to take away from Q2 earnings. Add to your winners on red with confidence. Cure for higher prices is more supply & that is not coming.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, it is not only Mr.
#Buffett
looking at 🇨🇦. There will be a return of US
#energy
investments $ to 🇨🇦.
Shell & other majors invested when I was a banker & we have seen this happen every cycle. This is material for 🇨🇦 & this time is no different.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
TMF, thank you. I had been very skeptical of spending my days online, but have been thankful to connect w/many. It makes me happy to engage w/young & inspired investors.
2021 was a good year, but the best is yet to come.
Be kind to others.
Merry Christmas & see you in 2022.
TMF, $CVE acquired 100% stake in Toledo refinery. The acquisition provides 100% ownership of a downstream asset that offers more flexibility to navigate pricing and downtime. Owning Infrastructure offers better stability & control. Good news. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the to relax is now. Energy equities have not been nearly as volatile as WTI as they have turned a page. OPEC cannot change the structural undersupply story. SPRs can slow down WTI but it too cannot change the inevitable. Stay patient and confident. Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, strip pricing for WCS has averaged near $70 for this Q. $MEG $CVE now days away from debt targets if my math is correct. Upcoming guidance will be the most important. The time has come.
Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, $CVE has achieved the debt milestone as expected. 100% of FCF will now be returned to shareholders. This same move caused a 20% move in $CNQ & split. I expect $CVE to outperform in the coming 24 months. Buy on any pull back.
Thank you #
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF,
#macro
headlines of
#recession
are causing significant pressure in all commodities. Stay patient as lower prices will albeit ensure less supply at a time markets need it. We know this due to impact of
#SPR
vs demand. Drawdowns exacerbate the LT supply problem. Thank you.
TMF, today is a day to buy. Red everywhere is a liquidity concern & not driven by fundamentals. The thesis for a tight energy market is firm. The FCF secure. Markets will rebound. Add with confidence if you can. Thank you.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, stay humble. I see too much applauding from
#oil
investors.
Recall that there are:
• 2 parties to every trade
• Markets do not go in one direction
• When the herd agrees that something is about to happen, it usually does not.
• Buy on fear.
Be kind. Thank you.
#OOTT
TMF, today is not a day to panic but rejoice. The movement on your
#energy
investments tells you all you need to know about how short term any pullback is being perceived by the markets. Stay patient.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, recession or not,
#oil
markets are tight. Open interest in crude contracts are low. This causes heavy volatility. Add headlines of Biden in KSA & short selling prevails. Fundamentals will cause a major short squeeze. When? Hard to say. Buy on red if you can.
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, the world may soon provide a premium in pricing to safe and secure
#energy
supply.
The reality of social and political motivation will be met with economic reality. The advantage goes to shareholders. Stay patient.
Thank you
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
TMF, earnings & WTI working together to show investors that the best days are ahead in
#energy
. Buy Volumes are 🆙, debt is ⬇️. One day closer to 50-100% FCF. Consider
#energy
among the only sectors to increase FCF estimates in a down market. Q3/4 expect breakouts.
Thank you.
The global oil market is not ready for what's coming. The US has, in essence, subsidized the rest of the world via SPR release and elevated crude exports. That's all about to end as US crude storage gets tight.