Brendan Weathers
@WeathersWX
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Rapidly rotating wall cloud/scud with some weak funnels. Does not appear to have touched down. Video taken 6:09 PM on the Creedmoor Rd bridge over falls lake.
@NWSRaleigh
@katcampbellwx
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Looking over the data, I'm struck by how similar Michael was to
#TD10
right now. The expected path/intensity at this point are nearly identical, and conditions are about as favorable. There is still considerable uncertainty but the analog is there and TD10's ceiling is very high.
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I think it's safe to say
#Ida
will go down as one of the most infamous storms in our lifetimes. From near Cat 5 strength at landfall and devastating damage to tornadoes across the Eastern US and a once in 200+ year flooding event in the northeast. Wow.
#wxtwitter
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Major landfall near Wilmington on the 12z GFS. Could be catastrophic.
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I will continue posting these fantasy snow maps because they are the only thing that indicate any snow for us in the foreseeable future.
#ncwx
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260 mph gate-to-gate shear at a beam height of 600 feet?? 🥴
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I remember the days when this meant we were getting a major winter storm... the good ol' days.
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This has to be the strangest evolution of a winter storm I have ever seen. I could only imagine the forecasting headache this would be if a storm like this actually happened.
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An absolutely brilliant display of lightning tonight in Raleigh!
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An overlay of the latest hodograph from Little Rock with this tornado-warned supercell near Scranton AR.
#arwx
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Regarding the TORE issued in Arkansas earlier. This image, taken by Michael Davis, shows what may be a tornado. Just because there isn't a highly visible wedge or a crazy CC drop on radar, doesn't mean there isn't a tornado. The NWS 100% made the right, SAFE, call here.
#arwx
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Not 100% sure, but we may have just had a brief tornado go unwarned near Hares Crossroads, NC.
#ncwx
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Them: The sounding isn't that contaminated
The sounding:
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@nwsraleigh
@katcampbellwx
@reedtimmeraccu
@spann
Large mesocyclone with a few transient funnels as the wall cloud passed by. Unclear from my vantage point if anything touched down. Taken in Wake Forest, NC, with funnels attempting to touch down around 6:45 pm.
#ncwx
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I don't know if I've ever seen models be this horrificly inconsistent, in this close of a range. It's only two/three days away and models still can't figure out if a storm will even happen or not. The weather Fri-Sun could be anything from clouds, to a snowstorm, to an ice storm.
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Crazy times are ahead. 12z Euro on absolute smoke. Also, just a quick reminder that Euro >>> GFS.
Euro is close to something special. Man this is about to be a wild week of tracking coming up. Buckle up.
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Areas of the Eastern US that have been impacted by severe weather so far this year:
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Welp, looks like the 18z GFS is backing off-
huh. well that's something.
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How can you hate this man? He receives all this hate but stays positive and turns it into a good message. Shout-out to Matthew!
On the internet, like in life, most people are nice. But the loudest voices are often those that aren’t so nice.
The culture of WxTwitter has to change. This isn't "Mean Girls."
I have thick skin – but consider the culture that's being cultivated here. I'd rather kindness.
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The GFS had to give us one last laugh before winter departed! I audibly laughed at this.
#ncwx
#wxtwitter
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It's like a broken record at this point. Another arctic front hits the Apps and comes screeching to a halt. El Nino, La Nina, La Nada, La Noodle, same old southeast ridge, same old pattern. It's getting really old.
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Dude is the hero we needed‼️‼️
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18z GFS and 18z NAM coming in hot! We've seen a trend towards better phasing of energies, and as a result NC may come into play with the snow! We'll have to watch how this continues to trend but this looks good.
#ncwx
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Nadocast definitely won the battle yesterday. Also aligned with much of the model data that showed Western NC as the bullseye for the day.
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12z GFS trying to show a pattern change by new year's day. If this can make it inside of the 7-10 day range then there may be hope.
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Horrible sight. Debris ball/tornado was 1.5 miles across as it came through Tupelo. This is another sick reminder that no severe weather risk should be ignored.
#mswx
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A three body scatter spike (TBSS) as this tornado passed through Mayfield, KY minutes ago. Usually seen in thunderstorms indicating hail, this would indicate a large amount of debris being lifted high into the atmosphere. Extremely rare to be seen with tornadoes.
#kywx
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The GFS has locked on to the idea of a strong coastal storm with cold air in place. Now all we have to do is wait for the inevitable NW trend.
#ncwx
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I know this would never happen, but wow... What is the GFS on 💀
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Beryl definitely isn't going to rapidly intensify right before landfall in Texas... right? Not like Beryl has a history of RI or anything...
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The 0z GFS is very troughy for the Eastern US. Hopefully we can get a pattern like this heading into December!
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womp
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So now let's just bump this a little further south and we are golden!
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Loving this negative tilt/ more phasing trend. Still have a ways to go with this storm, but this is what you want to see for more snow.
#ncwx
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GFS, Euro, and Canadian models 7 days out. Storm signal is there, we have climo on our side, now we just need the trends to be our friend.
#ncwx
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Brilliant double rainbow over downtown Raleigh! I have never seen anything like this before much less in front of the city!
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We won't need to worry about the southern stream energy if the northern branch turns into a bowling ball like this. GFS remains an extreme outlier for now though.
#ncwx
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The HRRR trends west, and the NAM says "I call, and raise you 75 miles further west!" One heck of a westward bump coming from tonight's mesos, and predicted spot-on by
@webberweather
(as usual).
#ncwx
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Tomorrow's enhanced risk for the Mid-Atlantic will feature a double-barreled threat. Further north, backed surface winds and higher dewpoints will heighten tornado risk. Further south, inverted-v temperature profile and dry air aloft will heighten damaging wind risk.
#wxtwitter
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15z HRRR vs ongoing tornadic supercell NW of Lubbock. I think the HRRR did a pretty good job with this one.
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