Sammy Troup
@WXTriad
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Aspiring Meteorologist | Tornado Geek | Graphic Creator | Weather Photographer | Christian ✝️ | Triad Weather | D1 Snow & TS Rider | I ❤️ Supercells
Somewhere in the Triad of NC
Joined April 2023
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Pretty cool looking Supercell in Reidsville, NC on 5/7/24. Hands down my BEST photo of a Supercell, especially in NC!
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That is NOT what you wanna see from Beryl. An Eye is starting to come back just south of Kingston.
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We will literally wake up tomorrow & likely see the NHC cone saying a Category 2 or 3 is possible in Texas on Monday.
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Micheal, Laura, Ida, Harvey, Ian, & Idalia is why we don’t trust the Gulf of Mexico.
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I was at the waterpark for an hour & I see Beryl is forming an eye again? I don’t think that was supposed to happen..
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Beryl starting to look better as it heads towards the Yucatán Peninsula!
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Yucatán of Mexico literally wrecked Beryl. We should see something better later tonight or in the morning because Beryl is straight up TRASH.
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If this doesn’t scream Tropical Storm/Hurricane Potential, I don’t know what does. All of the East Coast needs to be on guard as we head into the Majority of Hurricane Season.
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No reason to why Beryl wouldn’t restrengthen over the BOC this weekend, sea surface temperatures will be in the Lower 80s to Mid 80s. It has about 48 hours over the GOM so we will see what Beryl can do. 👀🌀
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New EURO Ensemble Tracks is pushing Beryl closer to the Houston Metro. Something to watch very closely!
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Hardly any Wind Shear in place where Beryl is about to go over the weekend. This could be a problem.
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It’s scary how Beryl did a full EWRC & is still strengthening in 40kts of Wind Shear. It should be dying but no.
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Watching this wave very closely. It could pull the funny once it goes North of the Lesser Antilles in a week. The Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, & the Carolinas need to watch this.
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HWRF, let’s not. 😐
(this model has been so far accurate but i don’t see the Yucatan getting hit by a Major Hurricane.)
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Latest HWRF showing a Major Hurricane East of Corpus Christi, Texas on Monday. I wouldn’t be surprised since the BOC is so hot.
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If Beryl misses the Yucatán & goes straight into the Gulf of Mexico, boy oh boy. We are gonna have Hurricane Potential in Texas.
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If you ever need motivation advice, just ask Beryl, she’s your girl.
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Latest NHC Discussion states the potential of a Category 2 Hurricane from Beryl in Texas.
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Beryl’s eye is now scrapping the coast of Jamaica. NHC doesn’t have it making landfall but there’s a 40% it does. (my opinion)
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Jamaica could now be hit by a Category 4 Hurricane on Wednesday. DIRECT Hit. Not what you wanna see.
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That would be pretty wild to see a 959MB Hurricane off the coast of Texas in July.
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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are starting to warm up just in time for August-October.
Mid 80s in the Gulf of Mexico
Lower to Mid 80s in the Caribbean Sea
Upper 70s to Lower 80s in the Main Development Region (MDR)
This season won’t be good.
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The chances for Beryl to reintensify after hitting the Yucatán of Mexico is very slim but not out of the question. This is becoming a harder storm to track by the second.
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Goodbye, Beryl. Likely won’t see you again.
Tropical Depression
#Beryl
Advisory 42: Flooding Rains and the Risk of Tornadoes Continue Across Portions of Eastern Texas, Western Louisiana and Arkansas. This is the Last Nhc Advisory.
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Starting to get a better picture of where Beryl will make landfall on Monday. Likely gonna be between Galveston, TX & Corpus Christi, TX.
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If Tropical Storm Danny looked like this, how is Invest 92L not a Tropical Depression???
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Why was Beryl NOT strengthening after it moved offshore from Mexico you may be wondering. Here’s why 👇👇
The Ocean Temperatures will pretty cold in that part of the Yucatán Peninsula with Dry Air & Wind Shear. Plus, it had just moved off land after being on land for 12 hours.
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Beryl’s eye is currently passing southeast of Kingston, Jamaica right now.
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With NC Hurricane Season coming up, we should be mindful of MDR Hurricanes. Florence was one that no one would ever forget, especially along the coast. This storm made landfall as a Cat 1 (was once a Cat 4) in NC. This storm sat over NC & SC for 2 days & dropped alot of rain.
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A Category 3 isn’t really out of the question but a Category 4 definitely is. We could see some RI before landfall in Texas.
I’m thinking we see a high end Category 1 Hurricane or a low end Category 2 somewhere between Corpus Christi & Galveston on Monday. Just my opinion.
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Imma say it, this has Category 5 Hurricane potential. Pray for the Windward Islands, they are gonna need it.
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Looks like Beryl shifted a bit North. Still expecting a high end Category 2 or low end Category 3 landfall in the Tulum, Mexico area today.
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Latest advisory on Beryl now has a low end Category 1 Hurricane go through Brownsville, Texas Sunday.
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If your in the Yucatán of Mexico, I would advice you to follow this guy. He updates almost every day about Tropical Storms or Hurricanes that are coming to the Yucatán!
👀Si bien el
#HuracanBerly
bajo a categoría 2 sigue siendo un poderoso fenómeno. Es importante no bajar la guardia y estar atentos a los posibles cambios que puede tener en las próximas horas. Se mueve un poco más al norte sigamos atentos.👀
@VivoEnCancun
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The Tropics are quiet right now, but that won’t last long. The newest EURO/UKMET “Superblend” Model is showing alot of Green on the map through August to October which likely means the Tropics will be very active. The Gulf & West Atlantic needs to keep an 👁️ out for Hurricanes.
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“However, some of the guidance forecasts a weakening rate that looks
somewhat unlikely given the current intensity and structure of the
hurricane.” - NHC
Words that you don’t wanna hear.
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Beryl now has hail associated with it. Da hell.
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Me when im not included in a Tornado Watch or Severe Thunderstorm Watch that is 1 county away from me:
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NHC’s Forecast Cone of Uncertainty now has the Yucatán of Mexico getting a Category 2 Hurricane on Friday & the BOC getting a Category 1 Hurricane on Sunday. Things are getting interesting. Texas needs to be ready for a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane this weekend.
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My take on Beryl’s strength when she gets to Jamaica: high end Category 3 or a low end Category 4 Hurricane. She won’t quit that easily.
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Many members wanting Beryl to make landfall from Port Bolivar, TX to South Padre Island, TX. These members are also showing very rapid intensification.
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Ocean Temperatures are RIPE for Rapid Intensification in the MDR right now. Almost at or over 85° in the Windward Islands.
29C = 84°
30C = 86°
It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens when the MDR takes off.
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12z EURO & 12z GDPS is showing a Severe Weather Threat Wednesday Afternoon with some good instability in the atmosphere. Temperatures in the Upper 80s to Lower 90s, Dew Points in the Low 70s, CAPE Numbers exceeding 2,500-3,500, & PWT’s going as high as 2.30” in some areas. 👀👀👀
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Jamaica is getting slammed by Life-Threatening Winds & Very Heavy Rainfall as we speak.
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Latest ICON run is.. yikes. Yes, we need the rain but not 4-8” in one day.
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24 hours ago Beryl was a Tropical Depression with Winds of 35MPH.
Now Beryl is a Hurricane with 80MPH Winds.
Now THATS what i call Rapid Intensification!
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Beryl seems to be finally on the weakening trend. Let’s hope it stays that way.
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Rapid Intensification is looking possible once again. These conditions are very favorable for atleast a 100MPH Category 2 Hurricane. No Wind Shear & Ocean Temperatures in the Mid to Upper 80s.
A Category 1 Hurricane is looking more likely & not a Category 2 or 3 in Texas. Rapid Intensification will likely not take place but Steady Intensification is likely over the next 18 hours. Either way, Storm Surge, Flash Flooding, & Tornadoes will be the main threats.
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Recent microwave pass shows that Beryl has a closed eyewall & is building a core. Rapid Intensification into a Category 3 Hurricane or even Category 4 will happen by tomorrow & Monday.
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Tropical Storm Force Winds will likely be felt in the Houston Metro on Monday. The NHC has shifted the cone of uncertainty towards these areas.
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There is a 70% chance to see an OFFICIAL Category 5 from the NHC at the 5-8PM advisory or even a Special Advisory. (this is my opinion)
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Matagorda Bay could now see 4-6 feet of Storm Surge from Beryl. 😳
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Beryl strengthening quickly in the hot Atlantic waters. The Lesser Antilles, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, & the Grand Cayman Islands need to be preparing.
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