(1/3)
#Michael
at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like…
Can't emphasize enough what a serious situation this is. A category 4 or 5 hurricane with a near perpendicular angle of approach to the surge prone SW Florida coast. The wind and surge impacts are going to be catastrophic near and to the south of wherever
#Milton
makes landfall.
My crew flew both of these missions. 16 hour day. Fought all kinds of gremlins on multiple aircraft. Traversed the Gulf of Mexico four times. Got the data.
#Helene
is steadily strengthening.
My goodness. In the last inbound pass thru the SW eyewall, plane was jolted in what was a ~700 ft immediate change in altitude. Then they circle in the eye, probably to catch their breath. Behaving *exactly* like my Michael landfall mission (2018). Intensification likely ongoing.
(2/3) We got our clocks cleaned! On this our last fix, we entered from the S, and (eventually) exited SE. The white flashing in the eyewall is the severe turbulence we just flew thru. The chart tells the story. The wild gyrations in pitch & roll (over 30 deg bank!) were…NOT FUN.
New video - Inside the EF3 tornado next to the fire station at Breckenridge and N. Shackleford in west Little Rock. Mike Bennett and his friend were outside and ran for safety.
Throwing everything but the kitchen sink at
#Idalia
w/10 missions planned over the next ~30 hrs (graphic c/o
@MikeAdcockWx
). Just in time as convection is exploding tonight. I'll be w/TEAL 71 Mon night. 3-hourly fixes begin Tue am…should = near continuous coverage thru landfall.
#Beryl
is still packing a punch. We were stuck in the soup all day. Every radar blip in the northern half was rough. Went from an open eyewall to fully closed as it approached Jamaica with a really nasty NE eyewall. Got hail the last two passes. This thing is a fighter.
@53rdWRS
Well the shear got to
#Lee
today, so no great eye pics. But, the most impressive seas I've ever seen. This was 1 min prior to entering the SW eyewall, to our 10 o’clock. Note the milky appearance/obscured sfc ✅. Confirmed the 85 kts we had just spiked to on the SFMR. Very cool.
#Milton
is on a path to Cat 5 today. But want to address the "it's supposed to weaken" talk before it even gets out the gate. Regardless of winds at landfall, this 10-12 ft surge is set in motion. Wall of water higher than a basketball hoop. If you're <12 ft of elevation, GET OUT
10/7 4am CDT: There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge from
#Milton
for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Residents should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.
Tonight's recon plan for
#Idalia
. Tricky mission ahead w/Cuba land interaction & THREE aircraft scheduled to be on station around 00Z. Expecting to find a hurricane. The SFMR (under the well worn leading edge of the wing) will help determine if surface winds are hurricane force.
Cannot describe what we just experienced. My heart is still beating out of my chest! Plenty of pics/videos to come, but for now, here is the
@53rdWRS
crew that flew the landfall mission of historic Hurricane
#Michael
This is the turbulence I mentioned on Fri. We were outbound to the SW & I had just called the eyewall drop (you can hear the spring release & see the load mouth "sonde away" at start). Pilot said we lost 30-40 kts of airspeed instantly, stall warnings going off, & pulled a few Gs
Onboard Teal 73 about to go check out
#Debby
, but been dealing with some storms on the ground for the last hour. Hopefully we'll be out there shortly.
(2/3) We got our clocks cleaned! On this our last fix, we entered from the S, and (eventually) exited SE. The white flashing in the eyewall is the severe turbulence we just flew thru. The chart tells the story. The wild gyrations in pitch & roll (over 30 deg bank!) were…NOT FUN.
Well, here we go. I've flown 3 major hurricane landfall msns in the last 3 yrs (Harvey, Irma, Michael). This won't quite be the landfall, but the pit-in-your-stomach feeling is the same. Adrenaline pumping, & ready to go get this data! See you from the air.
#Laura
@53rdWRS
(3/3) As the flight path shows, we made the fix then loitered in the eye for a bit to gather ourselves. The wx officer is usually busiest in the eye, so I had a rare opp to snap a pic and take in the moment.
#Michael
was every bit of the 919mb monster we measured. Unforgettable.
This is something else.
@53rdWRS
just measured 100 kts at flt level in the SE eyewall & extrap SLP down to 971mb. That's a ~10mb drop in just over 2 hrs! The anticipated hollowed out eye looks as healthy ever.
#Francine
clearly making an intensification run just prior to landfall
Holy cow it's happening.
@NOAA_HurrHunter
is officially replacing the two P-3s (Kermit & Miss Piggy) with WC-130Js that the
@53rdWRS
flies. Can confirm that it's a workhorse! 💪
Today,
@NOAA
announced that it has awarded a contract to Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, based in Georgia, for two specialized C-130J Hercules aircraft to become the next generation of NOAA Hurricane Hunters -
@NOAA_HurrHunter
Read more:
#flyNOAA
We normally don't fly these until they get west of 52.5W. So *if* we get tasked,
#TD18
is forecast to be a major hurricane before we'd fly our first mission. Crazy 👀
Honestly shocked by how much I'm seeing this. Had to double check myself several times to make sure I'm not looking at an old cone. This disconnect is *seriously* underselling the direct threat to the Tallahassee metro IMO
I'm confused.
Television stations show the GRAF model making landfall almost 100 miles SE of the official NHC forecast outside the cone.
Is this what we're doing?
Interesting change of plans for this evening. Was expecting to put
#Gamma
to bed tonight, but due to rapidly evolving situation just found out we've been rerouted to fly into T.S.
#Delta
. This fills the 00Z gap for recon into Delta tonight. Never a dull moment in the
@53rdWRS
!
Been stuck on night crew flying Lee this week, so a few of us decided to just push through when we got back to St Croix this morning and hike out to some tide pools
It's always cool to get a
@53rdWRS
-
@NOAA_HurrHunter
fly-by in the storm environment. The timing today was impeccable however as TEAL 73 had multiple passes w/NOAA 42 in the eye of Hurricane
#Delta
. Check it out, I've never been able to see them from this close and for so long!
Getting ready to go investigate
#PTC2
. If and where we find a closed low level circulation today will be key to forecasting the storm's track and intensity throughout its development into future
#Barry
It's staggering to me how much spread there still is in the operational models at just 48 hrs out. I mean we are 2-3 days away & a landfall in either Apalachicola or Fort Myers (and everywhere between) is still on the table. NO ONE in this area should be letting their guard down.
Concerning trends with
#Sally
overnight. About to go see if it's a hurricane. Will recover at Houston-Ellington Field where
@53rdWRS
ops will continue for the duration. Not gonna lie, this one is hard…my mind is also w/my family & home back in Biloxi. But it is part of this job.
Evolution of the eyewall of
#Marco
over 4 fixes/4.5 hours. Had to climb from 2500ft to 5000ft literally as we were making the 1st fix bc we wanted no part of this so close to water. Pressure dropped like a rock then leveled off. Let's hope this one is not a sleeper…
@53rdWRS
This video was taken during the eyewall penetration in the thread. You can hear the "autopilot" warning repeating in the background meaning the plane is unable to hold heading/altitude and the pilots must fly it manual. Boy did they ever!
Good very early Saturday morning from Homestead, FL! TEAL 73 ready to go hunt Hurricane
#Elsa
. We'll see if the intensity is holding. Piling on with the Elsa overload, but one of the pilots was all about it, like planned this for days.
@53rdWRS
From today's invest mission. Per our rules of thumb, this foam patch is what 15-20 kts should look like. Consistent with what we saw on SFMR and at 1000 ft for most of the day. Bottom line…not much to see here (yet) with
#PTC9
. Good news!
@53rdWRS
Early start from St Croix this a.m. for the
@53rdWRS
TEAL 73 crew. High-fiving
@GBlack22wx
& TEAL 71 crew on way out the door after their surprising upgrade of Hurricane
#Isaias
last night. Why we do what we do! We'll find out shortly if the strengthening trend has continued…
Back from 1st
@53rdWRS
mission into T.S.
#Fiona
. Shear displaced all the convection to the east, so able to fly down to 2,500 ft w/some clear views of the ocean surface. Saw 65 kts at FL. On sfc, impressive wave breaking/streaking in the NE quad (compare to the clear "eye") (1/2)
About to go for another run at
#Elsa
tonight. Possible re-upgrade to hurricane. Not excited about the recent convection wrapping around the center or the embedded mesovortices. Plan is for shorter legs than normal due to land proximity so should get plenty of good data tonight.
I grew up in Lenoir (Caldwell Co). I lived and worked in Asheville for years. Western NC is home. I am in shock at how bad the situation is right now. No power/water/sewer/comms. No way in or out. This is not even close to a recovery situation, this is a rescue operation…
#CaldwellCounty
#NC
I am sending this information from our church as a lot of People in Caldwell county have no power, and do not have access to food. Some don’t have access to water.
“CBC: We want to serve breakfast to ANYONE in our community/county that needs a meal. Please
Honestly, this was the first thing I thought of in regards to
#95L
. Florence was an outlier - I remember once it reached 25N, that no storm had ever made a U.S. landfall from that far east. Until it did. Bottom line…it is WAY too early to make assumptions about the track.
Hurricane Florence : a lesson in never assuming anything.
Full archive of the NHC 5 day cone. This was a “guaranteed fish storm” aka out to sea track.
Until it actually goes OTS, we watch them all.
#95L
With full knowledge of the forecast, are we sure this is even a tropical storm right now? Dry air is just hollowing Beryl out. It is going to take one epic 180 for it to regain hurricane status let alone for the RI some of the hurricane models are starting about 12 hrs from now.
I just so happened to fly the landfall missions of Harvey, Irma, & Michael, as well as the late afternoon pre-landfall of Laura. Which means I am literally flying through the middle of each of these loops. What an absolutely surreal couple of years it has been.
Hard to understate this. The rate of rapid intensification explicitly forecast over the next few days by NHC ties their record maximum. This is exceptionally aggressive given it's still only a PTC, and shows how seriously they are taking the threat.
From
@burgwx
: If the current forecast holds on
#Helene
, it will tie the fastest rate of intensification explicitly predicted by the NHC since 2000.
#FLwx
Garrett was the weather officer on today's historic
@53rdWRS
mission upgrading
#Dorian
to Category 5. Not pictured are the hours of adrenaline and subsequent complete exhaustion he and the rest of the crew experienced to bring this vital data to the world today.
And this is why I love invests. Did not expect to find >60 kt flight level winds at 2500 feet today…with a closed eye. 👀 Invest
#99L
--> Tropical Storm
#Nana
Aggressive recon plan on tap starting Sunday a.m. for the intensifying Invest
#93L
in the NW Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico, while continuing to fly Hurricane
#Franklin
in the Atlantic. We're about to be burning up the skies in the tropics!
Not sure where to start from today's
#Laura
recon msn & too exhausted to think about it. Haven't moved from this spot for an hr. Think I'll join the rest of you just taking in this sobering moment. Praying for SW LA & for my
@53rdWRS
@NOAA_HurrHunter
teammates still flying tonite
I know I said it would be more organized, but honestly wasn't expecting a tight 6-mile wide closed eye from a 55 kt tropical storm. 👀
#Lisa
seems poised to intensify rather quickly from this point forward
Beautiful tribute from
@NOAA_HurrHunter
who earlier this evening honored longtime radar scientist and researcher Peter Dodge who passed away in March 2023.
His ashes were dropped in the eye of Category 5 Milton tonight –
PETER DODGE HX SCI (1950-2023) 387TH PENNY
What it's like flying across an
#AtmosphericRiver
. You can clearly see the boundaries on both sides…a literal river in the sky! We're continuing to fly ARs off the U.S. West Coast in support of winter season recon operations in the Pacific.
@53rdWRS
Down to 30% now. Worried there could be some complacency with this one due to recent headlines about the lack of tropical activity plus this wave's inability to develop thus far. But…never write-off a surface low in the Bay of Campeche. Don't like this look at all.
I knew I had a lot of flying hours this season, but not this many! This award, named after the squadron's all-time high flier, is presented to the member from each crew position with the most flying hours for the season. Duty, honor, country…and wx data 🫡
Latest VDM just reported an eyewall for the 1st time since
#Beryl
crossed the Yucatan. But…it is still open and is *40 MILES* wide. As has been apparent for the last 24 hrs, this is not a storm ripe for RI. Modest intensification - possibly to a Cat 1 hurricane- is the best bet.
Leave it to
#Beryl
to come in way ahead of expectations. Extrapolated pressure is down to 962mb, a full 12mb (!) lower than earlier this afternoon. Could see it possibly rapidly intensify before running into land tomorrow morning
Down to 996mb already.
#Francine
is getting organized, and quickly. Looks really healthy on satellite. Has a very favorable environment for the next 24-36 hours. Have to think that the higher end intensity solutions (Cat 2-3) are on the table.
You know what they say about plans.
Our
@53rdWRS
low-level invest of
#91L
today has turned into a system survey mission. So instead of chasing a LL center that hasn't had time to develop yet, plan is to still get valuable data by releasing 21 dropsondes to feed into the models.
Still in awe of what the planes in the air saw at Ian's peak. Pic on right was SW eyewall after Garrett's crew got slammed down 1200 ft. Look at those eerie "fingers" sticking out into the eye. Just a wall of mesos. And impossible to see heading inbound bc of attenuation. Insane.
A couple of radar shots from the eye of
#Ian
on this mornings early flight (approx. 6-8am Eastern).Not the most photogenic eye, but it was quite the ride.Unfortunately another rapidly intensifying land falling hurricane.I hope everyone in Florida was prepared and is staying safe.
Rough ride today into now-Hurricane
#Sally
. "Pulsing" eyewall trying to wrap from E-W. Tough to fix w/the unexpected NE jog, crazy wind shifts & a LOT of clear air turb. All indicative of RI. ~50 kt increase in 4 hrs def qualifies. Keeps upper end intensity in play. Not good.😕
Concerning trends with
#Sally
overnight. About to go see if it's a hurricane. Will recover at Houston-Ellington Field where
@53rdWRS
ops will continue for the duration. Not gonna lie, this one is hard…my mind is also w/my family & home back in Biloxi. But it is part of this job.
We just have to continue to grind and *fly this day-after-day 😅 Lee may not have the eye-popping Cat 5 structure anymore, but it is kicking our rear ends. The opposing forces of shear with all the other ingredients for intensification do not equal a pleasant flying experience.
Hurricane Lee has weakened significantly due to moderate wind shear. Latest forecast models still show the slow curve north next week. We just have to continue to grind and watch this day-after-day, especially for folks in Nova Scotia.
Surprisingly strong
#Sam
! Showing off impressive structure despite concentric eyewalls from yet another ERC. Got hail in the outer SW eyewall. Sea sfc pics taken 10 mins apart ~40 mi out…coverage in streaks/whitecaps the difference between TS & hurricane force winds.
@53rdWRS
Heavy recon plan for
#Francine
for the next 48 hrs. With NOAA 49 already in the air and both NOAA 43 & TEAL 73 expected to takeoff in the next hr, should have 3 planes in the storm this evening. Then 3-hourly fix requirements starting Tue evening thru landfall.
Can't stop watching this. Imagine chasing a storm and this happens right on top of you. Listen to
@ReedTimmerAccu
frantically shout about deviant motion and rapidly changing wind direction. This is what he was contending with in real time.
Shout-out from NHC on the value of aerial recon. I have arrived to a storm & been surprised by the intensity, but nothing like this. Expected a marginal hurricane, found a Cat 3! Reminiscent of the stories I've heard about flying into Patricia ('05), in the same part of the world
From today's
@53rdWRS
mission, you can clearly make out the northern and southern boundaries of the
#atmosphericriver
approaching CA as we transited across its core heading toward the SE. This is tonight's prelude to the larger AR expected to impact the West Coast Sun/Mon.
The Europeans know how to do hotel room coffee. Up and at 'em early this morning to fly the Puerto Rico landfall mission. Expectation is to find
#Fiona
as a hurricane at some point today
Special Outlook issued: A low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today. For more information visit
I've been on invest missions that are more impressive than this. Despite satellite presentation, convective bursts, center reformations, etc.,
#Elsa
is not looking very healthy at all
We were at 5000 ft and NOAA 42 was at 10000 ft, transiting through the center of
#Henri
at the exact same time on Friday evening. 2nd time I've seen this in the last two seasons! Appreciate
@TheAstroNick
for refraining from dropping a sonde on us. 👊
Officially tagged to go investigate
#97L
tommorow. We always get amped up to fly the stronger storms, but my inner meteorologist actually favors invests. The surprise wind shifts, the constant streamline analysis…makes us ARWOs live up to our "mission director" role. I love it!
There will be one more fix mission tonight to determine if these satellite trends are translating to a strengthening (or no longer weakening) hurricane. Then a 12-hr down time while
#Beryl
is over the Yucatan (NHC has already canxd Fri am) with missions picking back up Fri night.
The satellite presentation of
#Beryl
has definitely continued to improve this afternoon, and MW imagery suggests the core has gotten better organized again. It will be interesting to see in recon data if that results in the weakening trend seen earlier today stopping/reversing.
Heading out for the third of 3
@53rdWRS
winter storm taskings. This one will go the furthest north of the 3. Dropsonde data will be fed into tonight's 00Z model runs, fine tuning output from the GFS, Euro, etc. One last round of sampling to help nail down that rain/snow line! ❄️
Wild stuff tonite from Hurricane
#Delta
. 1st fix: elliptical eyewall, confirmed hurricane force. 2nd fix: eyewall collapsing, psbl new tight eye forming, winds stronger but erratic. SLP dropped ~10mb! 1st time using Remarks section in VDM.
@EricBlake12
pics of what we discussed⬇️
Hurricane hunters look at their schedule & try to stay a little ahead of the game. Been looking for that glitch in the matrix since the ERC last night…when will that westerly shear start taking its toll? But cloud tops just keep on cooling and
#Beryl
just keeps on strengthening
Back from a long night of flying into Tropical Storm
#Gamma
. Sloppy and unrelentingly/irritatingly rough all night. Started to get "the look" on the last fix. Definitely feeling the weariness set in on this one. This season just needs to be over!
@53rdWRS
Short vid from the eye of Hurricane
#Lane
today, SE of Hawaii. Only time for a quick peek before getting back to work to find that center fix, but incredible!
NE eyewall of
#Lee
: 148 kts at flight level, 144 kts at the surface via the SFMR. Basically a 1.0 reduction rate from the 10K ft flight level to the surface, a trend we have seen with basically every Category 5 hurricane in recent memory (e.g. Irma, Maria, Michael, Dorian).
#Ian
still looking rather healthy as it emerged offshore today, & is now explicitly forecast to regain hurricane strength before a 2nd U.S landfall in SC on Fri. 3 extra recon flights are sked next 24 hrs to catch it w/1st takeoff @ 5pm ET tonight (deleted prev post for clarity)
The
@53rdWRS
landfall mission of Hurricane
#Ian
is inbound to the eye. Should get a full sampling of the intense NW eyewall and hopefully a good center drop/min SLP right at landfall. Data will be historic, and important for final classification
Stepped off the plane today from flying Grace expecting to get plan for a Fri mission once it clears the Yucatan. Turns out we go into crew rest *tonight* for the 1st mission into
#Henri
on Thu. Truth is my inner WX nerd loves the craziness of it.🤓 It's August in the
@53rdWRS
!
#Grace
looked & felt like a hurricane today. Got a rare visual of the 65 kts (hurricane force) we saw on the SFMR. Chart is for 1500 ft so have to extrapolate for 5000 ft, but sea surface is consistent w/what we'd expect. So…here's what a hurricane looks like from the air! (1/2)
Found Hurricane
#Lidia
to be a tightly wound, surprisingly potent Category 3 (now Cat 4) hurricane. The NW eyewall was lit up like a Christmas tree with severe turbulence and mesovortex features. This is going to pack a major punch in western Mexico tonight.
Flew the landfall mission of Hurricane
#Harvey
exactly one year ago today. 938mb dropsonde found storm strengthened right up thru landfall. WC-130 also served as comm relay for mayday calls to Corpus harbormaster. Most humbling, memorable flight to date.
@TropicalTidbits