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@Vmaxpax
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energy ~ pax ~ فاغنر ~ انصار الله
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@AlanfromBigEasy
@ntsafos
BINGO!!
Germany CHOOSES Russian war oil over their own nuclear power.
It’s incredible.
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An important post and bombshell 💥by
@Kasparov63
that the Biden Admin intentionally stalled and downgraded weapons shipments to Ukraine this entire time. Apparently, they think that's negotiating leverage with Putin
What 🇺🇸 USA Foreign Policy on 🇺🇦 Ukraine Actually Is 👁️👁️👇
I wish Biden and his National Security team listened to
@Kasparov63
. Great prescient article again
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@marie_cast
@SamRamani2
Corporate self-sanctioning is one of the most remarkable features of this war.
Even Trafigura - Swiss based - privately owned - highly influential oil shipper and trader - says no more Russian ties. That’s hard to believe! But is happening
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Not any more
Slavyansk-on-Kuban. Explosions at the facility of Slavyansk-ECO LLC:
45°13.213'N,38°7.935'E
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🧵 “A very Small Window into the Tortured Mind of a Freight Analyst”
TANKER FREIGHT OUTLOOK
Baltic Exchange 2023 Dubai Tanker Forum
Braemar Research
November 2023
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Something weird is happening in oil markets
1) Excess Russian crude (due to Ukr refin attacks) is Not flowing. It's building up in floating storage same time Aframax supply tightens.🤔
2) Sanctions escalation sees Turkey & India turn away.
3) Yet, Urals $ outstrips WTI YTD.
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Rates have risen to such an extent that in some cases it no longer makes sense to move products
“To overcome this barrier, something will have to give either in terms of commodity prices or freight costs" 🍿
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@ChakhoyanAndrew
Need to add:
Syria
Venezuela
Mali
Sudan
Somalia
Mozambique
Madagascar
Libya
Central African Republic
And I'm sure we're still missing some.
2023: Year of Russian Intl Trade Consolidation. Watch Iran & Turkey - key for Trade Routes⚡️
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@PaulConnollyNI
@SamRamani2
As a policy, Putin has directed
#WagnerGroup
to seize and capture key global energy assets.
Only when that was secured, did the Ukraine special operation commence.
The world needs to address this:
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@ratta___
@WifeyAlpha
100% Wifey dropping key research on the Stock-Bond Correlation in inflationary regimes biggest game changer by far.
The Great Stock-Bond Correlation Crisis 💫
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@Dr_Ariel_Cohen
Isn't it weird how all the "Nato is surrounding Russia" people never ever bring up Kaliningrad.
In fact Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, all the Kremlin NEVER have had issue with Kaliningrad being surrounded by Nato.
I wonder why.
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Red Meat for
#tankergang
courtesy of McQuilling
Complete Suez-closure like scenario:
"Suezmax and Aframax will find support from an additional 72 and 66 demand equivalent" plus
"Vessel demand equivalent additions of +45 LR2s, +17 LR1s, and +30 MR2s"
ping
@AndersSjastad
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@sandibachom
Sandi, didn't think I could appreciate you more ... until now. Courageous and large hearted. Thank you for everything you do and all the sacrifices.
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@WifeyAlpha
Mr Dow Jones and Mr Rhea knew their stuff!
Thank you Wifey, for all the incredible research and guidance.
From Harry Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies
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@sandibachom
@January6thCmte
Check the special server where Trump’s Ukraine call was stashed.
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Mapping new VLCC routes formed from sanctions displacement.
"It appears that the inter-Atlantic trade routes have found a new balance and that they are here to stay. The use of VLCC tonnage has increased to 21-23 liftings per month over the last four months."
More good news for ship owners as the
#VLCC
inter-Atlantic trade remains strong with a marked increase in VLCCs competing with smaller segments. Our latest blog explains how an increase in shorter-haul trades has proven beneficial for shipowners.
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🔥🔥 Monster article by Bridgewater. Thx Wifey - always on top of first rate research.
The Tightening Cycle Is Approaching Stage 3: Guideposts We’re Watching - Bridgewater
"Odds favor a third stage of this tightening cycle likely to be marked either by an economic downturn or failure to meet the inflation target prompting more tightening."
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And it begins:
"Russia is ready to accept the proposals of Western states and Ukraine for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, but it is possible to achieve a solution to the conflict only by lifting all sanctions and lawsuits in international instances against Russia"
Россия готова к предложениям западных государств и Украины по дипломатическому урегулированию конфликта, но добиться решения конфликта можно, лишь сняв все санкции и иски в международных инстанциях с России
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Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft $ROSN delivered a comprehensive speech on his view of state of global oil at St. Petersburg Economic forum. The title?
"SODOM AND GOMORRAH ON THE ENERGY MARKETS: WRATH OF GOD OR ORGANZIED CHAOS? SAVE YOURSELF IF YOU CAN"
thread
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@mercoglianos
Pretty interesting they waited for the 2 Iranian warships and MV Behshad to leave Red Sea.
Alternatively, operation was broadcast and Iranians fled, deserting the Houthis.
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The irony of this is
#OperationProsperityGuardian
is now almost exclusively protecting Russian cargo through
#RedSea
"Southbound BEM transits which are done by tankers carrying Russian crude has reached almost 100%"
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"If a US citizen had travelled to Berlin in 1942 to help promote the Nazi side of the story, there would be no doubt of where they stand.
‘If Tucker Carlson does interview Vladimir Putin, he has made clear whose side he is on – and it is not that of the United States"
Does anybody by any chance have any views on the topic of Tucker Carlson in Moscow?
@sarahhhooper
was once again reckless enough to ask mine.
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@Inspector_Facts
@air0ee
@SamRamani2
The one who unilaterally changes terms of contract (in this case from euro to Ruble) without any consent - and then halts the contract - is the one who breaks it.
Poland and Bulgaria will have right to sue and they will win.
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@WifeyAlpha
At first, needed those targets. Now baby steps in the jungle. Winning and learning. But targets and wifey are like momma bear and help little scared pupae normies.
Could not do this with out you!! Gratitude!🦔🐷🙏
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@eeldenden
@carlbildt
Because Dubai is Russian de facto central bank and home to mass relocation of Russian oil traders and other business men. Dubai is the heart of Russia's financial economy.
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WOW. Capitulation by the esteemed Robin Brooks.
Finally, recognizing that expanded shadow fleet with “friendly countries” is de facto its own market, minus pesky things like rule-of-law and maritime treaties.
#ShadowFleet
#FriendlyCountries
The G7 price cap on Russia is in trouble. The share of western-owned oil tankers taking oil out of Russia is falling, giving Putin the power to sell at the price he wants. Share of western tankers out of Baltic ports is down to 40% from 80% a year ago (rhs, blue).
@JonathanPingle
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"A Russian victory in Ukraine will empower US adversaries in many ways — the most dangerous of all, perhaps, would be US adversaries learning that the US can be manipulated into abandoning its interests in a winnable fight."
The US still does not fully grasp the nature of the Russian threat, Russia’s sources of power and weakness, and the Russian way of war – including reflexive control. This knowledge gap is reflected in the prevailing US national security assessment that, while Russia poses the
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McQuilling:
"Our base case assumes 44% of normal MR2 laden transits will be rerouted once the daily transit rate drops to 18 in February of next year. ... This net impact is calculated to be +33 MR2 equivalents worth of demand."
$ASC $STNG $TRMD
Update on
#PanamaCanal
operations
Currently, 20 tankers from the south and 7 from the north are awaiting transit.
Recent slot reservation changes are impacting this crucial trade route. Challenges in navigation may persist into next year.
#marinetraffic
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Identifying tops in secondary reactions
early resumption of the decline will occur.’’
Dullness following the peak of a bear market rally is a common danger sign. However, it is often confused by the average investor who fails to realize that
the old adage, ‘‘Never sell a dull market,’’
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@HimHopenot
@bobgibson416
@AVindman
Watch the Arctic. Sweden already had a couple Russian jets come through. Canada grounded a plane in Arctic with 2 Russian nationals “taking a vacation across Nunavut on an ATV”.
Just recently Duma “legally” recognized expansion of Russian territory in Arctic.
Watch this space
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@vtchakarova
@simongerman600
If you overlay Russian occupied countries by Wagner Military, that accounts for about ~ 75%
New Age Colonialism > Neocolonialism
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It was a
#darkfleet
tanker that hit Hafnia!!
This is insurance nightmare. And ecodisaster. This is what everyone was worried about. It's arrived. How are policy makers going to react?
#tankers
it's not even 9am in London and already two major breaking stories. Vessel tracking shows Ceres I appeared to have its AIS switched on at the time of the accident, but the signals showed an irregular pattern not consistent with a tanker at anchorage.
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Is 🇮🇳India and🇦🇪 Dubai's new oil shipping trade owned & operated by the 🇷🇺Kremlin?
Bonus: insured by 🇺🇸America and 🇬🇧 Britain
🪆Thread
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@UrbanKaoboy
Like a huge industrial led recession in the middle of a hot energy war? What could be worse? Oh, EM countries in riots and protests because of the inflationary cost of US denominated oil?
Never thought I’d say this, but maybe it’s better for the world to deglobalize oil market?
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@Alex66231305
@GoldTelegraph_
Where does the uranium come for all the nuclear plants?
Where does the copper come from for all wind turbines?
Where does the plastic come from for all the solar?
Sure, Canada can buy it from Russia and China ... or ... they could invest in themselves and be self-sufficient.
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@jennycohn1
Patrick Byrne said live on a CNN prime time interview that
#MariaButina
was being groomed to be next President of Russia.
And that he’s in love with her.
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@WorldAffairsPro
It’s like everyone has forgotten grade 10 history class:
Appeasement never works.
Putin will not stop.
And Europe doesn’t even have the balls to turn his oil off.
Take a lesson from Ukraine and stand up to aggression!
#StandWithUkraine
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@WifeyAlpha
Considering Ukraine spend was only 5.6% of US Defence Budget, seems like Grandpa isn't only an oil trader.
Best 'return on investment' for American military in its history. Not one American soldier dead & yet Russian military obliterated.
#JustSaying
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#Chevron
CEO Mike Wirth:
“Building a refinery is a multi-billion dollar investment. It may take a decade. We haven’t had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is that there will never be another refinery built in the United States.”
U.S. energy executives told Jennifer Granholm that shuttered crude oil refineries won’t restart, Valero’s Chief Executive Joe Gorder said on Tuesday.
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"114 vessels — including oil tankers, bulk carriers and container ships — still passed into or out of the Red Sea"
Gas carriers biggest drop 96%
Bulkers least 25%
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And there it is 🎯
From mouthes of Russian oil cos themselves
⚠️ No storage capacity
⚠️ Production cuts will be necessary
And if PM Novak doesn't allow export of crude oil, things will get much worse, potential of shut-ins?😬
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Wars are inflationary. Stochastic, not linear.
Commodities performance in “surprise periods” of inflation.
Wifey Macro Research Thread.
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@carlbildt
The corridor of Russian Imperialist Dreams hangs in the balance.
Amazing that by upholding EU law, lil Lithuania strikes blow to Putin that no energy sanction ever could.
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Calvin, any day you want, I offer you a duel. Except you block every single person who rebuts you --- and now you gloat about your superiority and when in fact you are pure coward.
We bring it and you shrink it.
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Watching the NYC Intl Shipping Conference.
Holy smokes 🔥 this product tanker segment panel was ready for cocktail hour 🔥
Order Book? ha ha ha.
$STNG $ASC $DIS $HAFNI
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Why is Marhelm pumping Frontline as "the" Aframax tanker co?
Everyone knows Teekay is place to be for Afras and it shows in out performance.
Pretty shoddy of Marhelm.
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A huge shoutout to all the ⛴️ seafarers ⚓️ on this Christmas Eve. Thank you for your dedication and grit, everyone in the world is dependent on your services 🎁🎄🥧
And as investors, we don't need to support Iran to see healthy returns! 🥂
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@PauloMacro
Unless you mean China is about to start buying crude, please show us where "China is exporting inflation".
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😬 Now this would be escalation. Remember, Malaysia also just shut its ports to Israel-affiliated vessels
A Commercial Shipping Vessel in the Arabian Sea, roughly 200nm off the Coast of India has reportedly been Struck by a “One-Way” Attack Drone causing a Large Explosion and a Fire which has now been Extinguished; there were No Casualties from the Attack but Naval Ships in the
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it's going global mainstream. holy smokes.
#freedomofnavigation
#paxamericana
#paxbrittanica
#shipping
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Gee, I wonder where Russia is getting so many fresh weapons from? Good thing they have
#Tartus
, a massive military base in the Mediterranean leased from Syria, and free passage through Bosphorus
@NATO
waters.
Looks like
@UN
BSGI really paid off ... for the Kremlin's war.
As Russia threatens commercial vessels in the Black Sea, a revealing satellite image shows a sanctioned vessel moored in a Russian Black Sea port, its hold visibly laden with an assortment of weapons.
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@Neutral1Obs
@ETT78778027
@vasilina_orlova
Japan is actually an amazing example of post-war reconstruction based on new principles and rule of law. Japan still kept is "unique civilizational way". Economic leader. Awesome people. Now it's taking back the Kiril Islands and just launched 1st fighter plane since WWII.
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Fixed it:
"🇮🇳India is playing an increasingly important role in global
#shadowfleet
markets, and now that 🇷🇺 Russia has a 🇦🇪UAE banking license makes payments to the Kremlin in Dirhams that much easier" 🍾🎉🥳
India is playing an increasingly important role in global oil markets, buying more and more cheap Russian oil and refining it into fuel for Europe and the US.
#geoeconomics
#OOTT
#oilandgas
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@PauloMacro
The world is awash in oil. SPR releases. Russian output higher this year than last. Russia controls Libya and the numbers. Russia already dismantled two-thirds of CPC pipeline at port in spring. You’re relying on Russian *news* it’s just so incredible.
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To all the ZIM holders, well held!
Hope she opens at $14 :) 🙏
So apparently Robinhood allows $ZIM to be traded 24 hours a day… $ZIM currently up 6% in overnight trading from Friday close to $10.47.
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@jperling3
@RoyalFamily
Right? Can’t even wait for the coronation. A bad look minutes after death of his mum.
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@air0ee
@francis_scarr
Same as the way Russia "liberates" Ukraine:
Liberates them from family, home, assets, resources and life.
Russian logic is a class of its own.
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@KobeissiLetter
If it's the "most anticipated crash in history" that implies many short sellers = more bounces and the most protracted bear market we've ever seen.
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@KeirGiles
@TheCrayzoneNews
@TitKlarenberg
Great to know GrayZone and ZeroHedge are the same "company". Thanks for sharing this.
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1/ Interesting to see Malaysia - THE transhipment hub for illicit oil - actually crackdown. Are the port insurance companies getting antsy?
Per Braemar, 20+ yr olds will be 11% of all tanker demand by mid-2025 👀
Splash 247 documenting a perilous setup ...
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@SamRamani2
Turkey really pushing for negotiated settlement. No wonder, they’re caught in crossfire with zero NATO support and inflation at 80%!!
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@SullyCNBC
@Samir_Madani
I asked a Saudi Opec reporter if the Kingdom’s statements were a threat
Received this reply.
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Why I like product tankers Q3:
Black Sea insurance premiums + Urals over price cap = "increasing numbers of Greek-controlled ballasters are heading to the Middle East Gulf after discharging Russian crude, and are likely to increase competition in the mainstream trade."
Vortexa:
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@hofunghung
You forget: if Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Canada, S. Korea and all the rest had not "Obstructed" Putin, he'd be all the way to Poland by now.
Remember 30s and 40s:
#AppeasementNeverWorks
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⚠️
#Osint
vs
@Reuters
⚠️
Who do you choose in
#War
?
An agency redistributing releases from TASNIM a group associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ⚠️
Or anonymous twitter people tracking vessels via Satellite & AIS on daily basis, publishing maps like
@Schizointel
?
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@PauloMacro
And y’all never commented when Biden rolled back sanctions on Russia for energy payments. That’s pretty significant to the oil market but completely ignored.
I cashed in my chips that week based on news while fintwit was busy counting barrels based on Putin’s numbers. 🤦🏻♀️
4. Also THIS WEEK - Biden admin REVERSES sanctions on
#RussianBanks
to allow energy payments.
So there is more
#Liquidity
suddenly injected in ploy to help ease tightness/volatility expressed as unusually high prices.
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@auonsson
@PajalaJussi
Is there a way to 'unjam' it other than blowing it up or pulling its plug?
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Wifey's insight, research and conviction about change to inflationary market regime and its implications (like positive stock-bond correlation) was 🔑 and still is.
Gratitude and respect for Wifey 🙏
Not Wifey. People need to give credit where it’s due. It doesn’t work if I do it, if a handful of people do it. The man puts 🙋🏻♂️ when wrong, y’all need to put 🙋🏻♂️ when he’s right. Enough said fam
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@WifeyAlpha
Australia caved. That's the 3rd CB in 2 weeks. All "advanced economies".
Man, oil is going to moon and then inflation slam them all back down to reality. They have the '70s as a guide. Being tough then weak is set up for failure. Parenting 101.
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@4WinnersUSA
@RonStoeferle
Zoltan Pozsar is amazing. All of his papers are on point and very accessible for non-specialists.
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Why are Afra rates ripping?
It's too early for TMX, but timing for an excess Russian crude situation sure would match up.
Tanker FFAs, Aframax very strong:
VLCC Flat
Suezmax +1%
Aframax +5-10% 🔥
LR1 -2-6%
MR TC2 -1-3%
MR TC6 +1%
MR TC14 Flat
Tankers quiet pre market. $TRMD -.2% on 12K, $FRO -.3% on 9K.
$FRO $NAT $EURN $TNP $TRMD $STNG $TNK $DHT $INSW $ASC $ECO $HAFNI
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@juliaioffe
It’s too late for het bohne
Putin’s at war and not stopping. This has nothing to do about threats from nato - just ask
#Kaliningrad
.
The only way it will stop, is if nations intervene and force him to stop.
I’m sorry, but the red line has been crossed and we are at war.
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@RobinBrooksIIF
Unbelievable that the maritime insurance was back pedalled. All these half-measures are worse than no measures than all. I just don't get it! Didn't they learning anything from Covid restrictions? It's all or nothing.
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💥HOLY MOLY! This is News!💥
#Italy
threatens to leave the European Gas Market
#TTF
$TTF
This would be first *official* fragmentation of global energy markets. How is Lagarde going to deal with this?
@RobinBrooksIIF
@BurggrabenH
'Italy will ditch the EU benchmark (TTF) for pricing consumer energy bills and switch to Italian gas contracts in the latest blow to EU solidarity dealt by the gas war...
Italy, along with Spain and Portugal, has been able to stockpile gas more rapidly than NW Europe. ' TMC
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What were chances first tanker to receive direct hit is a 'western' major involved in the illicit / grayzone Russian trade.
Meanwhile $STNG $FRO shorts also receive direct hit.
Someone caught red handed?
Marlin Luanda (9829899) Trafigura operated vessel hit by a missile carrying Naphtha... that loaded via STS in Kalamata from a Russian linked tanker (Dale).
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@bythedshore
@propornot
@PhillipsPOBrien
Can’t help wonder about timing.
March - Putin’s “Storm” dismantled 2/3rds of CPC oil pipeline (Kazakh).
May - Chevron fixed it.
June - Putin tours Kazakh and C Asia to bolster support
July - Putin launches lawsuit against CPC / Kazakh on “environmental grounds”
Now this
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Fantastic deep dive into steadiness of Russian oil production and market.
WTI reminds us: This isn’t first time USSR blew up but kept oil on track.
For free on the substack — a different perspective on the possible Russian production trajectories. There is a decent case to be made that their volumes on the global market remain high. Something different to consider. Link below.
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@WifeyAlpha
more likely big boys sending secret prayers of thanks to wifey for educating them.
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@SamRamani2
Drown your shame
Bury your guilt
Obliterate your memory
And have good times while they last
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⚡️”The Biden administration has approved plans to build the nation’s largest oil export terminal off the Gulf Coast of Texas, which would add 2 million barrels per day to the U.S. oil export capacity.” ⚡️
h/t a good ally
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