Ppl need to stop reading intraday moves.... market microstructure is notoriously hard to predict
Focus on LT thesis, is your thesis intact...
Yes = Hold or Add
No thesis broken = run
Thats is literally all you need to be an investor.
#FuckYourMBACFA
#Investing
#COM
#Alpha
#CFA
Small reminder regarding $MEG.TO
Once Net debt is below $1.2BUS 50% FCF will go to
#Buybacks
As of end June MEG had about $1.35B in Net debt, so in the next 2 months they move to 50% buybacks!!!
This company is a MONSTER, people have no idea🚀🚀🚀
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
#Alpha
Honestly… I have yet to find anybody on this platform tell me where
#oil
supply growth comes from post 2024… anybody able to solve this problem?
#COM
#EFT
#OOTT
$LTNC
@dannyday
ramping up production
@TakeoverJoe
holding on news until Pink (big stuff coming IMO)
@TakeoverKerby
dropping the good news below
@MTzanetatos
being coy but guaranteed to be signing retailers during June/July selling season.
If you don’t see it, you never will
Interesting news out of WesCan last night...
New proposed director slate contains some familiar
#COM
individuals 👀
I would also like to wish our friends
@WhiteTundraSG
and
@sohaibab9
the best of luck with this new challenge!!
$WCE.V
Fuck off… you feel no different. That’s BS from somebody who has likely been a well paid high earner 4ever
Have somebody make normal $ become a millionaire then we can talk
Not having a mortgage/not having to worry about income is a life changer… so I repeat Fuck off, it’s BS
@LiVVinLife
@Maxx0320
What I’ve said before is that we don’t spend money to increase capacity until the demand requires it. We are increasing our capacity and running out of manufacturing space. We’re looking at breaking ground on a new warehouse immediately behind what we have.
OIL MARKET: Saudi Arabia confirms extension of its unilateral 1m b/d production cut into December.
Crucially, Riyadh says that next month it would review its decision again, opening the door for extending the cut into 2024 |
#OOTT
#SaudiArabia
Just throwing it out there, I think
@GeorgeASharp
and
@CRyanSchadel
should make a $1M bet on $LTNC Pink status. Loser donates to the winner’s charity of choice. I think this would settle the feud and be for a good cause. Anybody else agree?
@RepDianaDeGette
Maybe... you let them pump more oil and tell companies you don’t want to kill them in 4 years?
Think of a farmer who grows cows and you tell him in 4 years Steaks are illegal... how many cows will he have on his land this year? Will be build a new farm? Nope.
#OOTT
#COM
#steak
Even for the strongest of oil bulls, it’s hard to keep believing in $100+ oil. But maybe the whispers are correct and OPEC+ will cut and Russia will slow and we will draw massively in H2
Time will tell
We stand on the cusp of very meaningful inventory draws that we believe will be unignorable to those still f.e.a.r.ful of significant recessionary-induced demand destruction. Refuse to allow price to set narrative!
Honest this perpetual anti oil sentiment in the face of an impending energy crisis just makes me more bullish. Maybe instead of a 3 year bull run we get an 8 year bull run to 2030?
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
#ESG
Munich Re will pull out of oil & gas projects & related infrastructure. It directly & indirectly underwrites 13% of the global economy.
EU climate laws will inflict max pain on citizens. Board rooms behave as if we use less hydrocarbons - but we don’t!
#OOTT
@kittysquiddy
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched artillery fire on Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region, targeting groups it accuses of fanning recent violent protests
$VET.TO looking a bit silly here given this move in TTF. Had to buy a little, let’s see how the next 6 months go.
Europe seems complacent on their
#NatGas
security. Right tail risk seems high here for next winter
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
#ValueInvesting
#Alpha
#VNDY
@StanTradingMan
@TakeoverJoe
Honestly save your breath man... if people dont know yet about $LTNC, too bad for them... lol, by the end of April people will know. You dont need to go crazy. Just drink your PALLET of water and chill :-).
More
#oil
truth bombs … and yet in 6-9 months people will ask… who could have predicted the price of oil…
It’s going on 18-24 months or more that this supply side issue thesis is out there… media doesn’t care, and investors don’t care… yet
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
As this
#oil
bull market continues to chug along, every day we don’t get rug pulled adds to the thesis that we may be setting up for higher for longer commodities…
I see this as an opportunity to add risk (yeah I’m ok adding risk now)
$SOIL.V $PEI.V $PPR.TO $WCE.V $ROK.V
#COM
Let’s recap oil:
1. No new Iranian supply coming
2. SPR (even if extended) ends by YE
3. Russian supplies (sanction or other down by YE)
4. OPEC+ missing quotas + spare capacity limited
5. US Shale growth underwhelming
Where is supply growth coming from again?
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
India's fuel consumption, a proxy for oil demand, rose 10.2% year-on-year in November to 18.84 million tonnes, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
#india
#energy
#com
#oott
812 views... & people think
#Energy
is crowded? Think about the energy market, its size & impact on the world?
If Elon at $TSLA gave a speech for 30 minutes, would it have 812 views after a day?
Think about it...
#COM
$SPX $NDX
#ValueInvesting
#Alpha
See this is the problem with society... people fucking complain about oil and gasoline prices (but don't buy oil equities), but buy shitty tech stocks, and then spend $1500 on a new iPhone, $300 on jeans and $28 at Taco Bell...
Fuck off you all deserve to go broke...
#COM
Everyone talking about Iran and 2023 oil prices, maybe Iran causes forecast down from $120 to $105-$110 or from $110 to $100
Really it doesn’t matter, if we are not at $70 or lower in 2023 oil equities are going to be WILDLY higher than they are today
#COM
#OOTT
#alpha
#Value
@CathieDWood
@RaoulGMI
Just curious... if we can get 35%-50% FCF on energy, why would you buy anything else? Oh yeah and already up 50%+ YTD so like 100% alpha vs $ARKK.
#COM
$QQQ $SPY
$SNAP had a market cap at peak above $130B, barely makes any money & basically has no value to society
O&G trades at 20-40% FCF & people think we are crazy for buying these names?
I posit that it is the market who is crazy and we will make out like bandits
#COM
#OOTT
#EFT
💰🛢️
Sadly, Ed Morse cancelled on our oil bull vs. oil bear debate this morning, but my weekend of debate prep was not for naught. Join me at 11:05am ET on
@BNNBloomberg
where I will dissect Ed's ultra bearish thesis and explain why we see continued oil inventory draws ahead.
@CRyanSchadel
Market is shocked...was used to constant updates, and sees you as leader. Bunch of stuff spreading about $LTNC not going to go pink current and will get suspended. I suppose once you get the stop sign down and we get a proper business plan from
@TakeoverJoe
then this will improve
#Aramco
CEO "the world should be worried" "this is where we are heading. If China opens up a little bit, you will find out that spare capacity will be eroded completed" reports
@MathisWilliam
.
#OOTT
@ericnuttall
You are stealing my thunder 😂. They don’t realize additional taxes lower supply and increase prices…
Basic economics should be mandatory training for politicians lol
MEG reached its US$1.7 billion net debt target in the second quarter of 2022. In the current commodity price environment MEG expects to reach its US$1.2 billion net debt target in October 2022 and to reach its US$600 million net debt floor in the second half of 2023. $MEG.TO
#COM
For people still shitting on
#buybacks
:
You will see massive buybacks over the next 18 months in many names where valuations are illogical (25% FCF+)
Read through $VET earnings + calculate what they could buyback in the next 18 -24 months. It could be 25-30%+ of the OS
#COM
🛢️Buffett & Munger on
#Oil
!
Buffett: It's hard to say which of us knows less about oil
Munger: we should hold much larger oil reserves in the SPR and elsewhere because it will be worth a lot more in the future
Buffett: rapid energy transition odds are extremely low.
#oott
@CathieDWood
@CornerstoneOil
can you please send this woman some research, clearly her research team needs some help... is there like a 7 day free trial or something you can offer her? Lol 😂
🇲🇽 oil production has fallen 50% from a peak of 3.2 MMBpd in 2004 to 1.6 MMBpd this year and expected to further drop by 500k bbl/d by 2028.
Decline rates never sleep and any new oil production worldwide must first mitigate legacy declines before adding incremental supply. 🛢💰
@ValueNotDeadYet
I heard Nuttall mention the $100k tab they run (maybe with Energy Aspects?) for mkt intel. So, about 0.1% of AUM.
If I was willing to pay 1%--10%, even--of _my_ AUM (and I knew where to spnd it), I'm doubtful I could buy higher calibre insights than
@WhiteTundraSG
drops gratis.
#Natgas
powerburn demand is crushing it. Despite mild temperatures, powerburn reached 35.2 BCF/d yesterday, up +7.9 BCF/d vs 2022, the largest year-over-year gain this season. With robust production & soft LNG exports, powerburn is almost singlehandedly balancing supply & demand.
My “bold” call is we end up in this equilibrium where demand growth slows a little, supply grows a little, SPR ends & by magic
#oil
doesn’t crater to $60 & doesn’t rip to $140. Cracks come back to a reasonable (yet elevated) $30-35 and oil stays at $100
#COM
#EFT
#OOTT
$SPY $DIA
Can we just get it over with and realize these additional Saudi
#oil
cuts are going to last as long as oil price remains low… maybe Dec maybe through 2024…
but hey if market doesn’t see that, better for longs, extra boost every month
#COM
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia announces it will extend into August its 1m b/d unilateral oil production cut (and says it may be extended further)
#OOTT
#SaudiArabia
“The President is announcing that the Administration intends to repurchase crude oil for the SPR when prices are at or below about $67-$72”
World oil producers:
#COM
#EFT
#OOTT
#Buybacks
Shots fired: “When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive)” Buffett
$MEG.TO projected 23 YE net cash position... Nobody... and I mean Nobody was betting in this 12-18 months ago...
Net cash and like 8000 years of reserves... (yes it’s a joke but you see where I’m going)
#COM
#CanadianOilMafia
#OIL
#OOTT
$VET.TO hedge book as of Sept 30. Nice to see hedges in 2024, hopefully they layer on some Q2-Q3 2024 hedges over the winter if things get silly!
#COM
#EFT
#OOTT
OIL MARKET: I'm a contrarian here, but I continue to see no evidence of weak demand growth in the oil market. It may not be as spectacular as some had hoped, but for now at least, global petroleum demand is doing fine. Consumption will hit an all-time in 2023 |
#OOTT