Peloton is down 80% in the last 6 months. 20% since my podcast with
@jspujji
— oops.
W/ better retention (92% m12) than Netflix, PTON is trading at 6x it’s $1.5B ARR. Why? I’ve evaluated 30+ consumer fitness companies and thousands of consumer sub cos. Here’s my take 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
So excited to finally announce our $1.4B fund 2! $2B in the first few 2 funds is a huge honor and great notch but we are just getting started + doing our dream jobs every day. Huge thanks to the founders and LPs that backed us early!!
The Left Lane team is proud to announce the close of our $1.4B Fund II, putting us over $2B of committed capital since inception.
And our DMs are open! We looks forward to supporting new high-growth internet & consumer tech businesses across the world.
Nothing is new - but there is always room for innovation.
@calm
founders
@acton
and
@tewy
turned "take a deep breath" into a $2+ BILLION sleep GIANT -- I talk here about one of my favorite companies with one of my favorite people, my brother
@jspujji
Everyone dreams about building a successful consumer mobile app
Today, we break down
@calm
so you can see what it takes
@jspujji
and
@VPujji
walk through the concept of “content as a utility” and the keys to Calm’s rise as a product and as a business
11/ so I’m buying these days. I Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Disney, Nike, Samsung or Amazon will scoop them up if they keep trading like this.
But certainly not advising on it! Listen to my thoughts here:
Given the round trip the stock has taken, I was especially interested in this breakdown of Peloton
@jspujji
and
@VPujji
give a great balanced view.
PTON is one of the proxy stocks for big ideas like WFH, content, supply chain etc.
Such fun
1 in 3 Americans (I hope this is exaggerated) believe/fear replacement theory in a country built by waves of immigrants. A country that would be obsolete economically, culturally and technologically without immigrants. It’s pathetic, cowardly and lethal…even behind closed doors
We need to repudiate in the strongest terms the politicians and media figures who — whether for political gain or to boost ratings — have used their platforms to promote and normalize “replacement theory” and other starkly racist, anti-Semitic, and nativist conspiracy theories.
I wrote a
#Sikh
children’s book. Inspired by my own children, a labor of love for the next generation.
#RepresentationMatters
Please consider buying for your kids, friends or local school/library! 💛
Our latest podcast with
@VPujji
!
One of the rising stars of VC worldwide.
He was a founder of
@leftlanecap
, one of the top growth equity firms that has over $2 billion USD AUM.
Watch the ep through the links in the comments 👇👇
Meta trades at like 6x run rate cash flow (is that a real KPI?)
How many mega funds started the talking about a Meta LBO!?
“Jk. But maybe? Jk. But we could”
4 months ago, I founded my first SaaS company.
Ecomm stores using it during the alpha saw a 48% lift in conversion rate.
I think it will transform commerce.
Here's the story (and how you can get involved):
5/ 1) retail (100+ stores), 2) talent (50+ instructors), 3) media (Hollywood level production; over $100M spent annually on 2.6M songs), 4) hardware (which used to have great 40% margins) and 5) subscription (the crown jewel of the company)
Now, let’s look at unit economics 👇🏽
For any fund manager, VC/growth investor, etc. — this should be required listening. Pretty amazing distillation of 20+ years of tech investing at
@insightpartners
— great one
@HarryStebbings
+
@djparekh
6/ LTV pre-pandemic: 2k bike at 40% margin = $800 in upfront revenue. 10 years*$500/year*70% cash gross margin = $3500 in subscription LTV, assuming annual retention of 92% holds.
You really have to admire the retention. But what’s gone wrong?
10/ But Peloton is a $1.5B ARR, high margin, high retention subscription biz w/ about half of content streamed non-bike related (despite failing so far on additional hardware). That's reflective of their R&D, content, etc. being 10x others.
(21/n) Scale matters for a few reasons. PTONs sub base is so much larger than the
#2
competitor that they can afford to spend orders of magnitude more on their content. In 2021, PTON spent more on payment processing fees than iFIT spent on their entire sub product.
in 2018
@CopadoSolutions
was bootstrapped to 17 people in Madrid. 200% YoY growth, 40% CF margins no less. Today, they're Europe's (and Spain's!) newest tech unicorn at $1.2B -- congrats!!
7/ LTV post-pandemic: discounting and over-investment in supply chain leave a meager 10-15% hardware margin = $300 in gross profit. Assume same $3500 subscription LTV.
Not a huge difference between $4300 and $3800 EXCEPT timing -> burn.
What about CAC?
Big difference between sounding smart and being correct. My industry (like most) is full of folks trying to sound smart, citing nonsense with confidence, tweeting...oh wait. dammit :)
I am deeply grateful entrepreneurship runs in my blood!
This is an old newspaper clipping announcing my grandfather as founding member of Emirates airlines.
1/ First the history -- Peloton created a category (through fusion) just 10 years ago. Apple, Uber, Tesla, etc. are other category creators.
Category creation typically requires some vertical integration and a lot of adversity. This was no exception for CEO
@keylargofoley
3/ $1.6M pre-money valuation. All angels, including Foley’s brother-in-law.
But they’ve got some cash — so they get working on the first bike. They take delivery and….it’s 40% larger than expected. Oof.
Now fast forward 8 years…last fiscal year PTON did $4B in revenue. How?
Vinny is not only one of the very best people I know but also consistently one of the top investors in the game & always there for founders. Congrats and well deserved!
8/ At $1k CAC pre-pandemic, it only took peloton a few months to break-even on a customer. At $1200 now, it takes the company 2 years. That means a LOT of burn.
9/ That and falling demand (from the prior demand pull-forward + increasingly saturated/competitive US market) are why you see PTON in the headlines for raising last-minute capital w/ only quarters of cash runway left and halting production after overinvesting in inventory.
Calm is a $300M+ revenue, category-defining company built with focus and grace -- not to mention CASHFLOW POSITIVE for most of their life thanks to 1) a large % of new users from organic channels, 2) annual plans paid upfront, 3) high renewal rates
2/ NYC’s studio fitness scene was exploding in 2012. Just ask my sister-in-law
@PayalKadakia
! Foley was inspired and convinced some colleagues to band together. But 400 pitches later, he got nothing but “no” from the VCs
Can you guess the first round’s valuation??
4/ 4B in revenue -- 3B hardware, 1B content subscription. But it’s not just a simple hardware + software play.
PTON really operates 5 businesses. And none of them are easy.
Can’t allow ourselves to be desensitized to murder in our backyards…to our country being held hostage by cowardly, corrupt and severely permeable govt reps. DM me how I can help pass more sensible regulation
there are now 59 non-gaming apps with $100m+ in yearly revenue across AppStores, up ca 3.3x since 2018
growing from a smaller base but with almost the same net new of 14 (+68%) vs 16 (+10%) for games in 2021
Ok ok. I need everyone’s help.
My family is on vacation celebrating my parents 40th anniversary.
BUT
@VPujji
is working all day.
RT is he should cancel his day RIGHT now and come join us.
Like if he should dutifully take his calls til 5pm.
😂😂😂
#brothertricks
Best wishes for 2022 everyone! 🎉
As we enter the new year, I wanted to share a bit of LP perspective.
We all know the venture market was on 🔥 in 2021, but how is that actually manifesting and what does that mean for how the proverbial table is being set for 2022?
Fanatics = sports apparel but now so much more…. When your brother
@jspujji
interviews your former boss
@djparekh
it’s bound to be a killer episode — and what an incredibly unique business,
@Fanatics
!
Have you recently purchased sports apparel online?
You likely bought it from Fanatics. The company with exclusive deals with all the major leagues.
Want to learn how it works?
Listen to this podcast with their longtime board member
@djparekh
@jspujji
and
@gkamstra
break down Petco and the $120bn pet industry on
@bizbreakdowns
today.
Learn about:
- The growing scale of the pet industry
- Pet profitability
- The competitive landscape
Pawsome!
“The teachers are really the heart of the platform.”
@FelixOhswald
CEO of Europe’s first
#EdTech
unicorn
@GoStudent1
talks rapid growth, raising money, expansion in Asia...and profitability!
Startups are hard!
One of the hardest parts is managing your team.
How much guidance do you give? Do you do it yourself? When to track others to-dos?
Starting out, I wish I had a cheat sheet for management.
So I wrote one.
23 Hard Won Lessons In Startup Management 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
Hiring sales people? Testing out Tik tok or TV advertising? Emailing churned customers? Learn how the best companies do it. Fast Growth Summit by
@leftlanecap
is back today at 1:30PM EST. Access the live stream at .
Check out the latest Business Breakdown on MODERNA where I host
@jrkelly
(who is the CEO of ginkgo bio works and an amazing explainer of all things genetics) and Matthew Harrison (who is Morgan Stanley’s top biotech research analyst)
This one is 🤯
@thursdaythreads
01 🧶⚡️
"Beyond the Fed”
We know about Fed rates and CPI. But there’s more to it!
Tech shocked the market, twice: with a flash in the pan, then a leaky bucket.
Both shocks magnified the tech cycle. Stock forecasts & earnings tell the story:
With much joy, Ade and I are thrilled to share that
@RexhiDollaku
is being promoted to Partner at
@Base10Partners
, a role he has been playing for some time now.
How does the NFL actually operate as a business??
You know me for digging in on the podcast and truly figuring out the inner workings.
This is one of my best and favorite recordings.
@JayKapoorNYC
is awesome!
INTRODUCING POPCHEW
At the intersection of food and culture, we're working with creators to build brands we love around a social ordering experience. We're making food fun.
Excited to announce our $3.6M seed led by
@longjourneyvc
(
@LeeJacobs
@cyantist
)
Content as a great biz (
@Disney
) isn't new -- but CONTENT AS UTILITY instead of entertainment was a key unlock. Higher margin, purpose-built, habit-forming (in a good way!)
El debate sigue muy vivo en
#enlightED
Ahora le toca el turno al emprendimiento y el futuro de la educación en esta era digital
@VPujji
de
@Leftlanecap
y
@FelixOhswald
de
@GoStudent1
, el primer unicornio 'EdTech' de Europa, cuentan cómo comenzaron a trabajar juntos
Today I am announcing Bitcoin Pizza - a new national pizza brand that is launching in 10 cities.
The first pizzas will be delivered this Saturday, which is the 11 year anniversary of the infamous bitcoin pizza transaction.
Buy pizza: 🔥🔥
@Leftlanecap
couldn't be more proud to be partnered w/ M1 this past year...their growth has just been staggering. next stop -- $10B AUM :) My bet's on $100B+ in 5 years
We raised a $150 million Series E, led by SoftBank's Vision 2 Fund!
Thanks to our clients, investors, team, and partners for helping us become a unicorn.
So nerdy, but talking to ambitious founders is one of my favorite activities in life.
Their energy is infectious.
Their big ideas make me optimistic about the future.
And their willingness to learn and improve is everything.
Their sleep stories and meditations expanded market-size from the ~$1B meditation market in 2017 (closer to $2B today) to the nearly infinite sleep and wellness market they serve today
Important for Series A/B founders to be extremely careful with structured equity rounds -- play forward to precedent you're setting and liq pref you could be buried under one day!
@PitchBookNews
thanks for asking my thoughts :)