छोटे चौधरी
@Tweeter_wapsi
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Serious case of wanderlust, Modern Conservative, Hate Babas/Mullahs. Interests: Sports, Politics & Policy.
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The kind of Muslim consolidation happened for SP+RLD this time,it has never happened in the electoral history of Uttar Pradesh.
Didn't matter who congress fielded. Didn't matter if BSP fielded a strong local Muslim guy.
Over 90% of Muslims blindly voted for Cycle/Handpump symbol!
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Phase 2 was supposed to be toughest for BJP..
Jatav voting trends ne mahaul bana diya hai.. :)
Detailed update 7PM ke baad..
#UttarPradeshElections2022
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Un-availability of internet in Delhi border areas is hurting the protest drama badly..
Most people (specially youth) is leaving those sites and returning home..
Also their live propoganda has slowed down..
No wonder that internet resumption has become their CORE demand..
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Interesting numbers from one polling agency:
AAP 43-45%
BJP 41-43%
CON 5-7%
They were expecting a clear AAP victory 4-6weeks ago.. this is so damn close..
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Just like Jagan is returning to power in Andhra, BJD is returning to power in Orissa state..
BJP is doing very well in Loksabha though..
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My FINAL prediction of UP:
BJP 57±5
Margins on quite a few seats is pretty thin.. that's why giving a wider range than usual..
LOCK KAR LO MITRON :)
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The kind of massive org machinery BJP/RSS has built up in Uttar Pradesh can probably only be matched in Gujarat.
Whether 2014 or 2017 or 2019, the inroads were never as deep. Even at small villages,workers are campaigning.
Would be surprised if BJP gets less than 42-43% votes.
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Muzaffarnagar Punchayat ka whatsapp aaya..
Bheed me Kheti karne wale log kam puncture lagane wale jyada dikh rahe hain..
KISAN ANDOLAN?
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A poor must always remain poor..
How dare he can wear good clothes..
THIS IS THE MINDSET WE'RE FIGHTING AGAINST..
So sick of this condescending elitism..
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"Batoge toh Katoge"... masterclass of Yogi..
Perfect anti-dote to "Divide hindus/India" project..
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After analysing the actual voting trends from Haryana, BJP is hopeful of winning 4seats in Punjab:
Ludhiana
Gurdaspur
Hoshiarpur
Jalandhar
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BJP amritsar candidate is emerging as a dark horse..
People who're underestimating BJP chances in Punjab are forgetting that it needs to only get 25-30% of votes to win seats in most places... Except Gurdaspur, all major seats are 3 / 4 or 5 cornered..
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BJP+Chirag+Shinde+TDP = 268.
THIS IS THE CORE. Nitish Kumar may believe that he matters but he really doesn't!!
Unless CBN decides to do harakiri and flip, nothing could happen. OTOH, There are 'levers' in Hyderabad which won't let CBN repeat his 1996 blunder..
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WTF.. Mamata is losing it completely.. She looks PARANOID..
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Slowly and steadily, BJP is clawing back in west bengal..
Starting to get back the confidence of cadres/public..
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If we watch closely, BJP has clearly changed strategy in Punjab..
Looks like splitting AAP in Punjab (rebellion led by Bhagwant Mann) is a real possibility within next 3years..
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Not much benefit for the BJP after RLD joins it.
But as I said before, Modi is on a mission to create a much larger Hindu unity in the country...And doesn't want to make any social group as an enemy/paraiah.
Maratha CM in MH, Adivasi in CG, Yadav in MP, and now Jat outreach!!
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Bihar politics is in an interesting phase:
Lalus have promised Lalan Singh Dy CM post if he breaks JDU and brings 10MLAs with him to make Tejaswi CM..
BJP on the other hand promised 2 JDU Dy CMs to Nitish Kumar if he agrees to rejoin NDA
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If BJP doesn't contest on at least 30 seats on the lotus symbol in TN loksabha polls then it will be missing once in a lifetime opportunity...
Stage is perfectly set for repeating WB 2014 performance in TN 2024!!
@Pradip_K_Varma
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BJP solidifies its position in Hoshiarpur and Ludhiana.. two sure-shot seats emerging..
Margins are very low in other 2-3seats.. could go either ways..
#Punjab
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Amit Shah
Kailash Vijayvargiya
Himanta Biswa Sarma
Dharmendra Pradhan
Sunil Deodhar
Smriti Irani..
All of them are campaign in Bengal.. BJP won't be investing so much there without expecting a HUGE REWARD..
Anything is possible..
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BJP has succeeded in penetrating deep into the psych of Mazhabi/Balmiki dalits in Punjab..
just like Uttar Pradesh, Balmikis are going to become core voters of BJP in Punjab....
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The best chance for these Punjabi "farmers" came when Government sent proposal to them on 9th Dec..
They should have claimed that they *bulldozed* the government and celebrated VICTORY..
Now, most likely, their end will be similar to CAA protestors..
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I think this image has a potential to MASSIVELY damage Gathbandhan acceptability amongst jats..
Izzat/Respect to their Biradari/Leader is the FOREMOST consideration for any JAT voter..
Hope
@BJP4India
@BJP4UP
whatsapp teams already on the job..
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After losing money stocked at Dheeraj Sahu's premise, congress is afraid of raids on other places where it has hoarded the cash...
Hence the hasty announcement of "crowd sourcing" to convert that cash into "white"!!
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This is how things stand as on today:
CG:
BJP 45-55 INC 30-35
MP:
BJP 120-130 INC 85-95
RAJ:
BJP *80-85* INC 95-105
TS:
TRS+ 70-80 INC+ 30-35 BJP&OTHERS 10-15
MZ:
Congress LOSING
Save kar lo mitron :) :)
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BEST news for BJP isn't coming from Bihar but Telangana..
FINALLY, BJP emerging stronger in Telugu land..
Not only Telangana, the tremors of this massive bypoll performance will be heard in Andhra as well..
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JDU, SAD, TDP and BRS.. All 4 are desperate to join NDA..
Only problem is that they want BJP to accept "junior" role in their respective states..
Let's see if BJP makes any exception" to rule of only acceping "junior" partners
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After 6phases, Modi & BJP are talking about crossing 300seats on its own..
Congress on the other hand started saying "if not seats, their vote share will increase" AND "they are ready to offer PM chair to other alliance partner"
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Hahaha.. Himanta Biswa Sarma is a rockstar..
Held close door meet with Mizoram chief minister Lal Thanhawla. Who agreed to merge whole congress state unit into BJP after result is out (similar to Arunachal) 😂😂
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Joining hands with either BRS or TDP would mean BJP saying goodbye to Telugu states for next 10-15years..
It will lose all the recent gains and revert to below 5% voteshare..
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BJP is winning total 42seats from southern states:
KN: 22
TG: 11
TN+Puducherry: 4
KL: 3
AP: 2
@addheeraj
@Pradip_K_Varma
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Some RWs planning to vote for congress in Telangana to defeat TRS..
As per them, if would help destroy TRS & create space for BJP's growth in future..
Nothing can be worst than this... Don't SELF DESTRUCT.. Follow Orissa model.. Kill congress else u'll continue to remain FRINGE
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BJP is changing gears in Bihar..
- Merged VIP MLAs to pave way to get rid of Sahani
Patch-up with Chiarg Paswan next item on agenda!!
JDU facing internal RCP vs Lalan Singh tussle, will continue to watch from sidelines!
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Pawar-Italians are doing to Uddhav what US-EU did to Ukraine.
Had Pawar stepped back,Uddhav would have accepted the rebels demand & re-joined NDA.
But Kaka won’t let go off Uddhav until Shivsena is completely destroyed.
@iMac_too
bhau, do u think Kaka really wants to save MVA?
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मेरी झोपड़ी के भाग आज खुल जाएंगे..
Spreading like a wildfire amongst masses.. getting lauder and lauder each passing day...
If this trend holds, Unimaginable mandate for Modi 3.0 loading.. perhaps as big as best Congress performance ever!!
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Saurav Ganguly of course..
But I am not sure if BJP would be able to offer him the same deal which he was offered before (to be projected as CM face in 2021)..
Now BJP has established a base & there will be many RSS/Organisation men vying for CM post...
One Giant personality from Bengal is waiting for a particular political party to win their targetted seats, on 23rd May, if this happens, that person will make Political entry with a BANGGGGG....
Who is that person... Keep on guessing...
#LokSabhaElections2019
#ExitPoll2019
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BJP mounting strong campaign in Azamgarh..
Today Ram Vilas Paswan campaigning for Nirhua.. Anupriya Patel also active in constituency... All top BJP leaders spending nights..
Akal-less didn't expect this..
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BJP on its own is on the course of crossing 30% voteshare in Telangana LS 2024..
Don't understand why most RW people are desperate to give lifeline to BRS
Do you think BJP should ally with BRS for Lok Sabha election?
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People who are celebrating BJP "defeat" in Karnataka, have no clue how politics work..
BJP not only will emerge stronger in Karnataka but also in some other states like Telangana..
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So LAST allegation on Rafale about "Reliance-Modi" connection also falls flat.. 😂😂
Reliance signed MOU with Dassault when UPA was negotiating the deal itself..
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Opposition can draw two lessons:
1) CAA digged BJP's grave. People are against NRC
Or
2) Muslims are in the pocket. Be silent on them.Divide on caste or play "soft hindutva".
Hope intellectuals convince them that it was the former.
(2nd one is actually very dangerous for BJP)
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People who are mocking Fadnavis today will have to eat their words.
A sharp political backroom negotiator, party organisation builder, great articulator and excellent administrator.. RARE to find all qualities in one person.
He is destined to play a big role in future!!
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Hold your horses "experts"..
In 2019, it took 48hrs to consolidate the actual turnout figures after each phase..
Commenting on yesterday's 6PM figures is injurious to health..
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Scindia was not comfortable with Pralad Patel, as he saw this move as full stop to his own path of becoming CM in next 5years...
Hence, Mohan Yadav..
That's my reading..
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On BJP side, anyone trying to position the debate as:
Modi vs India
Or
Bharat vs India
is playing on their turf.
Modi gets it..
He tried to reframe NDA as
New India
Developed India
Aspirational India
Hope IT army gets it before it's too late!!
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BJP is not offering the CM post to Chaccha.. and he has just burnt his bridges with RJD..
What will he do now?
One way he can hope to continue as CM aftr 2024 LS is by proposing merger to congress..
INC (after JDU merger) can dictate Lalus, and ensure NiKu completes his term..
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BJP-SAD alliance looks like a certainty.
BJP has agreed to take 6+1 seats in Punjab+Chandigarh. Sukkha is making last ditch effort to gain 1 more seat in Punjab.
Main reason: To keep AAP in 2-4seats range nationwide!!
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Lalu making a move to split JDU and make Tejaswi CM.. rumors true?
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BJP did very well by avoiding the Kurmi-Sahu faultline which became congress's undoing..
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Message to BJP supporters in Andhra Pradesh:
The once in a lifetime, historical moment has arrived. One more loss & TDP will cease to exist as a separate entity. Your vote has the power to ensure the political end of the shady chameleon/backstabber!
Vote wisely!!
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Looks like Patel anger was even bigger than reported..
What Shah-Modi achieved in Gujarat is truly remarkable..
The most powerful (in true sense - Patidars have complete stranglehold on economic, political & social life) caste was hell-bent to destroy them & yet they survived..
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Unpopular opinion:
After analysing macro/micro polling trends, I have come to realize that 2024LS outcome is kinda perfect for BJP. It's the best platform it could have got for 2029LS..
@Me_Predictor
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The biggest story from Bihar:
Massive decline in popularity of Chota Lalu.
6 months ago,his appeal was transcanding castes,ppl genuinely started rooting4him. It looked like as if RJD was heading for 2/3 majority in next poll
Then he joined hands W/ Chaccha. REST IS HISTORY 😂😆
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If congress wins Telangana, then it would be another sure sign of Muslims vote dumping regional parties and returning to grand old party en mass.
Akalless in particular will be on notice in Uttar Pradesh..
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Looks like Baghel has lost the election in Chattisgarh..
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PMK rejects 10LS+1RS seat offer from a "30% voteshare" party and chooses to join forces with alleged "3% voteshare" party instead..
Confused?
I am sure
@AgentSaffron
will enlighten us soon..
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Gandhis ko agar aaj ke Rajasthan episode ke baad bhi apni aukaat samajh nahi aayi toh inke jaisa jhandu koi nahi..
Aaj Gehlot ne dauda-dauda ke kuuta hai.. 🤣🤣🤣
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Vishwasghat... Betrayal.. cheating..
That's how most
@narendramodi
ji hardcore supporters in my home, relation and village feel with his government's recent minority appeasement moves..
Be very careful
@AmitShah
ji.. (just trying to convey a genuine feedback from ground.. )
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BJP: 45+ seats in Phase 1, 2022.
Feedback is given by the same person who gave me 2019 LS feedback.
Check my TL, he gave me the feedback that BJP+ is winning 60-65seats in 2019 LS.
#UttarPradeshElections2022
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If BJP indeed chooses Jairam Thakur, my trust in it will get further strengthened..
If it were congress, it would have been IMPOSSIBLE to ignore a Delhi-darbaari (Nadda) or a dynast (Anurag)..
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New NDA in MH will win more seats in 2024 loksabha than what the old NDA won in 2019!!
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For those who are struggling to understand Behen ji's move:
After seeing polling trends in first 3 phases, she knows exactly where BSP is going to stand on 4 June.
Doesn't want Akash Anand to take the fall. It would have destroyed his career even before it started.. Hence!
बहन जी का फैसला समझ नहीं आया।
"आकाश आनंद" में BSP का भविष्य दिखता हैं ,अगर 3 साल आकाश आनंद जमीन पर अपने कैडर के साथ काम करते तो "सपा" को बहुत बड़ा नुकसान होता साथ ही उत्तरप्रदेश में पार्टी को बड़ा लाभ होता और सता के करीब भी होते।
राजनीति में कब और कौन समय के साथ कैसे विलुप्त हो
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Let me be the first to stick my neck out and say that in the coming elections, BJP is going to achieve what it has never achieved in Karnataka before:
A simple majority of it's own!!
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NDA 46-48% (28-32seats)
MGB 40-42% (8-12seats)
This is achievable and most likely to happen in Bihar Loksabha 2024 polls.
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265 सीटों से कम नहीं जीतेगी बीजेपी उत्तर प्रदेश में!
मोदी जी चाहते हैं की योगी जी उनके उत्तराधिकारी का स्थान ग्रहण करें!
#UttarPradeshElections2022
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After Maratha CM in MH, and Tribal CM in central region, won't rule out Baba Balaknath becoming CM in Rajasthan and Haryana getting first Jat BJP CM..
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Am I the only one who is worried after seeing this "patting"?
This is exactly how Modiji patted Bandi Sanjay's back when BJP was at the peak of its popularity in Telangana in 2022..
The result: All local leaders joined ranks and pulled Bandi down!! BJP collapsed!
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My take on assembly results -
Though over the top populist promises did have a bearing on outcome, there's something else too which must worry the BJP:
The BROKEN communication especially with aspirational youth,middle class & independent working women!
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AAP govt honeymoon in Punjab is over..
Things are moving at rapid pace..
Sukhbir Badal meeting Simranjit Mann is a MASSIVE development...
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Seat sharing negototiation outcome:
UP 👍
HR 👍
KN 👍
AP 👍
KL 🥺
BH 😭
Let's see what happens in TN/MH/PB
@addheeraj
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Just like Pakistan, China also missing Congress in the power..
The golden days where they were free to do whatever they wanted to do...
PM Narendra Modi and the BJP face huge pressure amid border tensions with China, as the Indian National Congress is waiting for a chance to shake the BJP's rule by heavily criticizing failed domestic governance and risky foreign policy: expert
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Shivraj Chouhan ji got one of the most politically significant ministry... could be very challenging but would be most rewarding too if he succeeds..
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Rajasthan has been one of the best administered state in India in last 5years.
Raje won multiple awards for various policies; managed caste dynamics *well*; Mixed the right amount of capitalism with social welfare.
A performance like this DESERVE a reward of re-election..
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Massive pro-incumbancy voting in Phase 01..
People are rooting for return of Yogi rule..
#UttarPradeshElections
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NiKu chaccha becoming JDU Prez means either RJD surrenders & agrees to his demand for equal seats (range 15-17) in LS, or he will dissolve the assembly..
He will blackmail and threaten congress with this..
No return to NDA now aftr BJP showed him cold shoulders
@Libertypical
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NDA seat sharing is done in Maharastra it seems:
BJP 32
SS 11
NCP 5
@thakkar_sameet
bhai, sahi info hai ya nahi?
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Sometime, underperformance/"loss" like this acts like a "safety valve"... as it happened in 2018 Dec..
So no need to lose heart..
But it's important to get rid of "fiscal hawkishness" which we saw in this election cycle..
Offering freebies is SUPER IMPORTANT in India..
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Don't know who is formulating Congress strategy..coming across like a disturbingly petty loser..
India probably has never seen such a disgusting opposition party who is hell-bent on demeaning & cursing our motherland just because it hates one Man!!
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The tactical use of Pawan Kalyan in Telangana by BJP - JUST BRILLIANT!!
@KDRtweets
@Pradip_K_Varma
@rajkarsewak
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Anti-Modi people have no incentive to go to the polling booth this time.. they have lost hope in opposition..
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NDA late surge has upset the AAP applecart in Punjab. It was heading for a landslide but suddenly finds itself stuck at 27% (approx.) voteshare.
More than the SSM, it's the BJP surge which has become a headache for AAP.
#PunjabElections2022
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Hope BJP doesn't self sabotage by forming an alliance with KCR for short term benefit...
Both BRS & TDP must be kept at arm's length if BJP wants to play any role in Telugu states polity in future..
నా ప్రియమైన తెలంగాణా సోదరసోదరీమణులారా,
మీరు
@BJP4India
కి ఇచ్చిన మద్దతుకు ధన్యవాదాలు. గత కొన్ని సంవత్సరాలుగా, మా మద్దతు పెరుగుతూనే ఉంది, ఈ సరళి రాబోయే కాలంలో కూడా కొనసాగుతుంది.
తెలంగాణతో మా బంధం విడదీయరానిది, ప్రజల కోసం మేము పని చేస్తూనే ఉంటాం.
ప్రతి బీజేపీ కార్యకర్త చేసిన
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2020 & 2021 gonna be very good for BJP.
- Will win Delhi assembly
- Would "GAIN" in Bihar irrespective of whether or not NDA wins
- Form government in Bengal and Assam
- Perform better than last assembly elections in Kerala and TN
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BJP voteshare prediction for states where BJP has been traditionally weak:
WB 46%
OR 43%
TG 34%
PB 24%
KL 19%
Andhra 10.5%
Giving a range in TN for NDA as the situation there is most volatile:
TN 18-27%
@Pradip_K_Varma
@addheeraj
#2024Election
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Opposition is playing dirty.. conspiring, misguiding, spreading fake news, blackmailing..
But everyone expects BJP to play FAIR..
Aise kaise chalega...
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BJP used to have solid support base of 32-33% in Delhi.
Now 38-39% has become the new benchmark (base).
All it needs now is a clean/aggressive face to add a top up of 5-6% of floating votes.
Chameleon's path to CM chair in 2025 has become a bit tighter after today’s
#MCDResults
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After Gajendra Sekhawat ji's meeting with CBN-PK:
Seat sharing finalized as below:
Assembly
TDP - 14
JSP - 21
BJP - 10
LS
TDP - 17
BJP - 6
JSP - 2
The BJP has asked for 1 additional Loksabha seat.. no decision could be taken today on that.. CBN has asked for some time..
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BJP ticket distribution has flummoxed Congress in Karnataka. They are busy in figuring out the intent behind such large-scale changes.
BJP on the other hand has cleared the path for younger leadership in the state and trying to shed anti-incumbancy.
Repeat of Gujarat of sorts!
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NiKu Chaccha can't remain CM after 2024 LS polls, as things stand..
He has only one option left (if he fancies his chances to continue in CM chair post LS polls): that is to dissolve assembly and go for simultaneous as-ls polls.
Reshuffle the cards!!
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Biggest impact of HR result will be in Punjab..
Had Congress won in HR, it was certain to return to power in PB..
Now Congress could even struggle to remain the main opposition.. AAP may consolidate more pro-congress votes like it did in Delhi while BJP will continue to surge!
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