Dheeraj
@addheeraj
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Minimum government minimum taxes, demography is destiny
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Calls i got correct related to 2024 kerala LS
19/20 LS winner
Thrissur trivandrum attingal: bjp win/loss margin
Bjp lead in 11 assemblies with names
Bjp+ kerala vote share
Seat with greatest bjp increase: alappuzha
Only seat with bjp vote decrease: pathanamthitta
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For a better Thiruvanathapuram after 15 years of non performance by shashi tharoor, voted rajeev Chandrasekhar
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BJP has done more for UP in 10 years than all the cong govts before combined. Still there is a chance caste and religion may lead to its defeat in 2027.
From "bimaru" to boom State .. UP on it's way to become an industrial and tech powerhouse.
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Arre 🤡, the 30 lakh crore was not wiped out due to exit polls but due to the fear that your pappu will come to power. When it became clear that pappu will remain in opposition investors recovered the 30 lakh crore and more 🔥
@KanganaTeam
False Exit polls showing 400 + seats that wiped off 30 lakh crore of invester’s wealth is in the Nation’s interest.
But Rahul Gandhi questioning the transparency of SEBI after chairman got exposed is an act of destroying the Nation.
Kasol ki nayi fasal aa gayi kya ?
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Ezhavas have been the bedrock of BJP in its 2024 Kerala performance. Alappuzha, thrissur and attingal, BJP swept through the ezhava dominant areas. In future they will dump CPM for BJP across the state also.
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BJP steadily chipping away at CPM votes even its strongholds. If CPM loses power it will be difficult to stop the bleeding to BJP
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My Karnataka prediction BJP at cusp of majority
BJP 107 (101-113)
Cong 87 (81-93)
JDS 30 (27-33)
Oth 0 (0-3)
I have assumed anti-incumbency against BJP. Difference between 87 the combined BJP got in 2013 (last anti incumbency cycle) is coastal (+10) and defectors (+10) seat wise
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Thrissur BJP lead expectations
Guruvayoor trail 15K
Manalur lead 10K
Ollur lead 5K
Thrissur lead 20K
Irinjalakuda lead 18K
Puthukkad lead 18K
Nattika lead 23K
Total lead 79K
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Modiji's final roll of the dice for the battle of bengal in Kanyakumari. Guy doesn't leave anything to chance.
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Kerala CNX India TV survey
UDF 11
LDF 06
BJP 3
Stunning results from CNX Kerala survey
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BJP had 42% vote in 2014 in Bihar. in 2019 it got 8% more which was in line with the national swing towards it. JD(U) contributed zero in 2019. 2024 is a cakewalk in Bihar as Nitish is highly unpopular
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Thrissur turnout analysis and prediction
75K+ people pro BJP people self added their names to electorate and most of them turned out while opposition voters have not turned in large enough numbers to block SG.
Prediction BJP to get at least 4 lakh and win by 50-75K margin
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Post poll Kerala prediction
UDF 16 (12-17)
BJP 2 (1-5 )
LDF 2 (0-4)
Lower turnout helps BJP and there are 4 seats where BJP is in close contest. BJP is gaining big but whether enough to overcome demography is not clear in these places
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Thrissur 2024 Lok sabha prediction
BJP 3.7L UDF 3.6L LDF 3.5L
BJP likely to open its account in LS in Kerala through Suresh Gopi. Not giving comfortable victory as seat is demographically difficult
Demography
Hindus 58% (25% ezhavas, 13% nair) Christians 27% (syrian) Muslim 15%
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BJP this time might finish 2nd or above in atleast 5 seats in Kerala. Dont vote for CPM or Cong thinking no win possible. likely BJP can create huge magic if all pro Modi supporters vote for party
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This is exactly why BJP should not bend to blackmailing of govt employee unions related to OPS. they made a impact of 0.5% on overall vote share. for this you are going to sacrifice 30% of state budget for OPS
Madhya Pradesh
Postal Ballot vote share:
BJP 37%
Congress 60%
EVM vote share:
BJP 49%
Congress 40%
Overall
BJP 48.5%
Congress 40.5%
Est.
Next level free loading by Babus
Imagine the plight of poll rigging that may have happened in Rajasthan which was ruled by Congress
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Pretty awesome stat that BJP has not fallen below 100 for 9 consecutive elections since 1991. And u have a loser party and its pidis celebrating getting below 100 seats.
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TV9 Polstrat opinion poll
kerala
BJP 2 25%
UDF 17 30%
LDF 1 23%
undecided 19%
BJP getting more seats than LDF in kerala is a possibility
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TV9 Polstrat opinion poll
BJP 6 39%
Cong 9 38%
BRS 1 15%
AIMIM 1.3%.
BJP is going to surprise in telangana
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Surveys give BJP 20% in both Kerala and TN, with average for Kerala slightly higher. Yet Kerala RW are supremely underconfident and Tamil RW are overconfident. Has to do with demography I guess.
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100% sure now that Modi is winning 2029. Guy is willing to break the bank to remain in power.
#UPS
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RW should be renamed joker wing. Unlike congis who have clear fundas (eulogize pappu, hate BJP, wreck Hs) RW has all sort of jokers who do from praising indira, defendd congress, appeasing Ms to misdirecting their anger on Modi and RW leaders.
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Bengali society is one with very low aspirations
This is how elections are won.
“Didi gives me a thousand rupees and I don’t have to ask from my husband. I am so happy. “
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People are getting blackpilled due to one subpar performance. If BJP pulls a surprise in one of the upcoming statepolls or delhi assembly, sentiment will revert back quickly
Modi will lose Varanasi LS itself if trends hold. U have no idea how much he's hated
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Telangana election prediction
BRS 65-75
Cong 20-25
BJP 15-20
AIMIM 6-7
Spilt it anti incumbency votes give BRS clear edge. cong and BJP fight it out for 2nd place
Demography
85% Hindu 13% Muslim
madiga mala lambda reddy munnuru kapu mudiraj goud are major caste
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Karnataka LS prediction
BJP+ 28 (25-28)
INC 0 (0-3)
BJP has historically done well in LS in karnataka except in Old mysore. So with JDS alliance this time it can sweep old mysore also . There is fight in 6-7 seats but momentum and turnout likely will carry BJP through
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BJP will only gain 5 RS seats over 5 years till 2028 from its recent victories in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and none in 2024 from these states. The road to a RS majority is long and difficult and needs greater inroads into WB, Odisha and Telangana
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What is happening to the Sangh in Kerala today, would happen to Hindus in Kerala in the future.
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Only good thing about slight reverse for bjp in Parliament election is that everybody realized 100% enbloc voting against BJP by M. Otherwise theories of M women and labarthi wave would have sprung up to take credit 😐
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it took 70 years of effort to reduce Congress from 40% in Odisha in 10%. In just one stroke of a pen BJP/Modi wants to bring it back to 30%.
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BJP campaign in kerala looking up. 2 seats nowhere in anyones radar, Alathur and Kollam has suddenly come in to the contest. Need to keep momentum till voting day.
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Many people still see 2024 as a virtual defeat for bjp. I disagree.24 was a calculated gamble by BJP leadership to secure 2029. And people should take into account that BJP is still in power meaning the gamble worked. the gamble taken was offering no freebies to counter khatakhat
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The mistake PFI/SDPI made is that instead of saying RSS/Sangh as they usually do, they said Hindu/Christian. Hate against sangh is normalized/justified in Kerala but their real target has always been Hindus
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Cvoter abp LS survey
Chattisgarh
BJP 9-11 55%
Cong 0-2 37%
Karnataka
BJP+ 22-24 52%
Cong 4-6 43%
Telangana
BJP+ 1-3 21%
BRS 3-5 33%
Cong 9-11 38%
Survey under estimating BJP in Telangana especially seats
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Reporter TV pre poll survey
Attingal
PM choice
Modi 45% Rahul 36%
42% say modi govt good/excellent
Vote
UDF 38%, LDF 31% BJP 28%
BJP has chance to win in attingal if the qualitative numbers are correct
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If BJP followed principles it would be just ruling 27% of India's states now compared to the 47% its ruling currently. Without power at state level it cannot fully implement centres policies. Opposition is also opportunistic. breaking opposition govts is justified I believe
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Modi will win 2029 with his greatest ever mandate and retire as Indias most successful prime minister🔥
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Last time i think Modiji spent last 2 days in Varanasi. This time he is focusing on final push in Bengal and Odisha. Seems 400 is a very serious target.
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Contesting alone proved to be the right decision for TN BJP. Fighting alone they have increased seats by 40% against combined DMK alliance. In 2024 BJP if its in alliance needs to contest at least 10 seats, otherwise it should again fight alone.
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Yeshwant deshmukh says BJP vote share will increase by 3% in 2024 to above 40%. including allies NDA may touch 43-45% as per him. All indicators BJP will cross its 2019 seat share in 2024.
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BJP won more LS seats in south in 2019 compared to 2014. And bjp will win more LS seats in 2024 from south when compared to 2019
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Reporter TV Kerala survey
Thrissur Lok sabha
PM choice Rahul 37% Modi 40%
Modi govt 36% good/excellent 25% bad/very bad
vote choice
UDF 35% LDF 32% BJP 34% (rounded off)
BJP has decent chance to win this seat
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Pretty sure now that BJP freebies in 2027-29 will be in shock and awe category and will leave opposition clueless🔥
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The only reason why nitish may want to rejoin NDA is that he senses landslide victory for BJP in Bihar 2024 which would expose jdus non existent base leading to loss of CM chair. BJP should not fall for this trap even if offered CM chair. Time to show who is the boss in Bihar
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BJP is going to get plurality of H votes in at least 8LS seats in Kerala this time out of 16 contested. Let that sink in for people who blame Kerala Hs for its current situation
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Axis exit poll generally surprises with the scale of audacity but with most other surveyors putting BJP at 350+, the only way Axis can surprise in 2024 is to put NDA at 400.
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Prashanth Kishore said that BJP will improve on their 303 number. Barkha dutt went blank for a few seconds in shock before responding 😂
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I am expecting to Modiji to hit the south rejects BJP narrative out of the park on June 4. That will be the highlight of his victory speech🔥.
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Next casualty of long election. After Rajasthan karnataka and haryana, RW has started doomsdaying on UP🤣
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Modi has always reinvented his brand to remain relevant, from hindutva icon, to development man to change agent to decisive leader. He will win 2029 handsomely and regain his aura.
Modi is a Declining Brand
A brand is either in ascent or in decline.
Modi’s brand was in ascent post 2013. He had a lot of fresh ideas - Startup India, Skill India, Swachch Bharat. Everytime he spoke, people wanted to listen. Venues were packed, both in India and abroad. There
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Have to commend
@PradeepGuptaAMI
for his professionalism in giving nothing away about his exit poll despite immense pressure from anchors and media. Gives us more reason to look forward to your Axis exit poll on june 3.
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BJPs plan to win kerala in LS started soon after 19 defeat. First part after defeat of AK made VM minister to reach out to ezhavas and candidate for attingal.
Next make SG contest in thrissur assembly with goal towards thrissur LS. Next made RC minister for tvm cand and nair face
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Republic P Marq Karnataka LS survey
BJP+ 25 55% INC 3 39%
ST BJP 52% INC 43%
SC BJP 45% INC 47%
M BJP 14% INC 81%
Ling BJP 67% INC 28%
Vokk BJP 52% INC 41%
OBC BJP 61% INC 34%
Gen BJP 59% INC 35%
Kuruba BJP 44% INC 50%
Oth BJP 60% INC 35%
BJP can win all 28 with this vote share
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Suresh gopi performance in few M dominated booths in Guruvayoor compared to 2019
38 6 (0 in 2024)
39 13 (15)
40 4 (5)
41 4 (5)
In 3/4 such booths BJP scored lower in 2024 despite humanitarian gestures by the actor. Very clear consolidation of Hs saved the day
@TheSureshGopi
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Nobody can beat BJP in media management. The CMs of chattisgarh, MP and rajasthan will be announced on sunday monday and tuesday respectively helping the party dominate news waves on 3 consecutive days
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In retrospect 2024 was pretty close to 2004. In both BJP was overconfident based on consensus BJP coming back based on assembly results 6 months before. economy was strong and BJP campaigned on infrastructure with no tangible freebies and opposition focused on alliances.
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Why BJP is almost unbeatable in 2024?
BJP is assured of minimum 200 seats in the hindi belt plus Gujarat due to Modi and its organization.
Even if it underperforms in rest of country BJP alone will minimum get 274 seats as per estimation.
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Rajdeep ghanta has Axis data. Guy was predicting MP too close to call. Axis showed landslide bjp win
Rajdeep Sardesai leaked some trends from Axis exit polls
1. BJP losing double digit seats in karnataka
2.Minor loses in Haryana Rajasthan Maharashtra
3. 2019 status quo in MP UP CH GJ
WB
4. Gains in TG OD
Note : he said UP status quo but didn't commit to it much..
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NDA gaining 3 RS seats in bypolls due to foolishness of congress and RJD of making rajya sabha members from BJP held states fight LS.
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The only core BJP state that can even be a slight worry for BJP in 2024 is karanataka as here cong has freebies, modis hindi communication has limits and cong invested money.but even here i dont see more than 3-4 loss for BJP at max. So BJP comfortably poised for above 340
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No sign of fatigue. Tentatively voter turnout reasonably high. Bodes well for bjp.
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Strong opposition is a disaster in our setup. We will be fed with competitive freebies, reservation and caste wars. Only reason why bjp didnt break the bank this time was weak opposition
My personal wish is
#Varun_Gandhi
to contest
& win
#Amethi
on ✋. He should lead cong in future, then only the real fight will begin again
✖️ Rahul and Priyanka are failed models
⚔️ Strong opp party is necesary in democracy
🩸 Opposition needs fresh blood atleast in 29
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Kanyakumari LS is decked in saffron. No sign of any other party
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Good news for BJP from Kerala.
Party bags 6 wards in local body bypolls gaining 2 from LDF. (LDF got 22 and UDF 12)
Both gains came from thrippunithara municipality. BJP wins are given below
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People who are advocating for BRS BJP alliance dont know the history of the TDP-BJP alliance in 1999. BJP which was a rising force with 20% vote share and 4 seats of its own was reduced to a fringe 3% party due to TDP alliance. some people want to repeat the same mistake
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BJP got its lowest ever share of MPs from Hindi speaking state in 2024 (52.9%). (excluding non meaningful 1984)
The non Hindi speaking states saved BJPs govt. Further expansion is the only way for BJP to neutralize anti incumbency. TN, WB and Kerala very crucial for 2029
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many people i see advising Modi to retire before 2029 saying that he has to go on a high. if he retires it will not be going on a high but quitting after a reduced mandate. He has to shut the critics/naysayers and win a single party majority again in 2029. He deserves it
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This is BJPs best ever chance to win a seat in Kerala. All the pieces of the jigsaw are nicely falling into place in a synchronised manner, by force, design or chance.
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Times now ETG
Delhi
BJP 7 50%
INDI 0 47%
Punjab
NDA 3-5 25%
SAD 1-2 17%
AAp 5-7 27%
Cong 2-4 27%
Haryana
BJP 9-10 53%
INDI 0-1 42%
the vote share number seem a bit off in delhi
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Odisha LS prediction
BJP 15
BJD 6
Cong 0
Odisha is a natural BJP state with favourable demographics. only thing holding back is limitation of split voting in simultaneous election. This time improved organization strength and naveen getting older will help BJP to best ever tally
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33% want Modi as PM in Kerala. BJP should be at least converting 17-18% to this as vote share in 2024.
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LDF and UDF are together going to sit in opposition in Delhi. For Keralas development we need few representatives of ruling party in Delhi. Therefore Plz vote BJP for a new beginning.
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the enthusiasm at Modis ongoing road show in Ernakulam is another level. The most dedicated BJP party workers are those from Kerala, because they work in a hostile environment without any immediate path to power or rewards
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Thiruvananthapuram LS prediction
currently BJP 3.55L UDF 3.8L LDF 2.4L
BJP has chance to win depending on minority turnout and shift of neutral voters for development.
Demography
Hindu 63% (nair 28%) Christian 28% Muslim 9%
In turnout H is lower due to outmigration in city
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I can tolerate somewhat sadly Modi losing in 2029. But absolutely criminal would be leaving a full coffer for cong to exploit like karnataka and Haryana BJP did/doing. Anyway dont expect Modi to make such a mistake, and expect he will spend max to save govt in 2029.
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Prasanth Kishore has some serious problem with Jagan. Has never seen him get so personal with any other politician
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This man is a genius. Don't think we will see another of this kind in my lifetime
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I am beginning to have some confidence that BJP will likely be SLP in Karnataka.
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Axis TN data is stunning.
BJP has overtaken ADMk and become
#2
in TN. Split which i advocated for is working
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Kerala Axis myindia
Nda 27% 2-3 bjp
Udf 41% 17-18
Ldf 29% 0-1
Bjp has arrived in kerala. 23% C vote for nda
40% nairs
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Modiji rally in Barmer completed. Barmer is done and dusted.BJP winning. hindutva wannabe bhati likely 3rd
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PK has single-handedly destroyed congi propaganda of the last 6 weeks. So much so that they have no alternative but to dub this Nehruvian gandhian secularist/socialist as sanghi
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A typical Kerala sanghis life is built on eternal hope.
ML will join LDF
Tharoor wont get ticket
Adoor prakash will join BJP
SG will win Thrissur
Its tuf to be a Kerala sanghi. Small wins like anil joining party help in this atmosphere. Appreciate all kerala sanghis💪
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ABP cvoter
haryana
BJP 52% 8
Cong+ 38% 2
INLD 2%
This is wrong i guess. there is only a serious fight in rohtak LS
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Tamil nadu CNX India TV survey
DMK 20
AIADMK 4
BJP 5
Cong 6
Oth 5
huge numbers for BJP in TN, though am not sure if votes will convert into seats
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Are they joking. The entire campaign of your INDI alliance was based on dividing Hs by caste. Now playing victim🤣
#WATCH
| Delhi: On BJP MP Anurag Thakur's statement in the Parliament yesterday, DMK MP Kanimozhi says, "It is unfortunate that a senior leader, who has also been a minister, thinks that caste is important of any human being, leave alone the LoP. This is the example they are
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story of todays election BJP Katipally Reddy wins from Kamareddy beating incumbent Cm KCR and incoming CM revanth reddy. The BJP is here to stay in Telangana
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He is the only way BJP can grow in TN. Hope BJP persists with him. Such 🔥 in him.
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all India LS prediction
NDA 409 (395-415) BJP 346
INDI 112 (106-126) Cong 37
NDA likely to hit 400 but BJP will fall short of 370 primarily due to giving away seats to allies in BH MH.
Depressed opposition turnout and virtual give up by cong will be key to historic tally for BJP.
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Lot of chatter on Karnataka being tough for BJP. I still believe NDA will be above 25+. Freebies are helping Cong but this being offset by modi factor and stronger bjp candidates IMO.
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ABP cvoter
West Bengal
BJP 19 41%
TMC 23 42%
INDI 7%
All India
NDA 46% 366
Indi 39% 156
Oth 15% 21
most conservative yeshwant also giving BJP close to 370. mazaak ban chukka hei poora opinion polls in this cycle
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Thiruvananthapuram BJP lead/trail expectations
Nemom lead 15-20K
Vatiyoorkaavu lead 10-15K
Kazhakootam lead 15-20K
Thiruvanthapuram trail 5-10K
Neyattinkara trail 15-20K
Kovalam trail 10-15K
Parassala trail 10-15K
Overall tossup range: trail 20K to lead 15K
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In 3/4 LS constituencies shown so far by Reporter TV in Kerala Modi leads Rahul as the favourite PM choice. Rahul only leads in 80% Muslim Malappuram .
Seems there is undercurrent for BJP/Modi in Kerala
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27 years ago my Dad taught me multiplication tables. Today was fortunate to help him learn excel
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Thread on BJP Kerala 2024 prospects
1 Trivandrum
Kummanam Krishnakumar rajeev possible candidates. BJP steadily improving base due to new voter pool. Likely can get 3.2-3.5L votes with one of these candidates (2019: 3.15). VS can improve to 34% as minority turnout peaked in 2019
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George Kurian is seeing a big boost in his image and standing based on his elevation as union minister. He should nurture one of kottayam or pathanamthitta and prepare to fight elections in 2029.
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India TV CNX survey
NDA 78 SP 2 (Azamgarh, mainpuri)
i think BJP may also lose rampur sambhal and moradabad unless there is relatively low M turnout.
75 is definitely possible for NDA
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Pmarq mathrabhumi survey
Pathanamthitta
LDF 31% UDF 33% BJP 31%.
BJP has good chance to win pathanamthitta as per this survey
@anilkantony
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Seats cong won due to alliance
Kerala 10
TNP 10
Maharastra 13
UP 6
Bihar 3
Jharkand 2
Rajasthan 4
Goa 1
Gujarat 1
Chandigarh 1
Haryana 1
Total 52/99
People are talking this result as some big achievment of raga🤣
AAP got no benefit from cong alliance while congress were able to win 2 seats: Chandigarh and south goa due to aap alliance. In fact more than half of cong seats were solely won due to alliance😐.
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