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Tom Williams
@TomW100
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Loves God, cordially works with Mammon. Protecting pensioners by buying bonds. Fund Manager/Gilt nerd. My views etc
London
Joined February 2011
RT @thomasforth: I don't know do I. Lots get said that doesn't actually matter. But if I'm in a Labour MP run jng for reeelection in four y…
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@EdConwaySky This is daft - it’s a function of the capital gains tax treatment far more than the underlying liquidity.
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RT @Sam_Dumitriu: It’s official. A decision on the Lower Thames Crossing is delayed until May 2025. 360,000 pages, almost £300m spent, and…
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RT @SimonMagus: I am with Jack here. There are two types of people, those who turn up at the airport in good time and lunatics.
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@tomashirstecon It is also at odds with the BoE’s desire to replace reserves on their balance sheet with repos as their main liability. How would that work with mass CBDC adoption. They should just kill the project - it’s only useful as a tool to force negative rates on cash.
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@duncanrobinson I get this govt <> household finances debate - but wasn’t that predicated over last decade by super loose monetary policy and low inflation. With higher rates, QT and sticky inflation surely the govt is genuinely more constrained.
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@RichardJMurphy That number likely includes unfunded public DB schemes (which have no assets) and various DC schemes where the investment choice sits with the individual. There is more like £2tr split between private DB and LGPS that has discretion of which at least 500bn is already in gilts.
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@Frances_Coppola @izakaminska @jeuasommenulle I’m not sure why Bailey’s calls for pay restraint should apply to lorry drivers but not nurses, supermarket workers but not teachers etc but sure you could argue it.
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@Frances_Coppola @izakaminska @jeuasommenulle I mean when the govt is 40% of gdp insulating HMT from monpol is basically making the BoE fight inflation with one arm tied behind its back… I’m not sure it’s that benign a choice.
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@Frances_Coppola @izakaminska @jeuasommenulle Spoilers - the market isn’t stupid… the real constraint is that core inflation (Eras Tour notwithstanding) is still super high. If the MPC think that is cooling off then, sure cut rates… but none of this dodgy accounting tricks to try to convince us that it isn’t an easing
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@Frances_Coppola @izakaminska @jeuasommenulle HMT: “Oh please can the BoE change policy to allow me to spend more (even though core inflation is well above target).” Defo a blow to BoE independence if they do that. OBR headroom rules tweak - that’s just down to market capacity and is less controversial.
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@jeuasommenulle Deep down this is all based in the idea that £100bn of QT a year isn’t monetary tightening which has the effect of making the government spend less…
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@JoMicheII @toby_n In the US the solved this issue by opening up the Fed’s balance sheet to money funds via reserve repos. This meant instead of massive bank profits liquidity drained into those funds and rate hikes feed through to wider economy rates.
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