Forecast Operations Specialist/
@noaagsl
,
@Mizzou
/
@gocreighton
grad. Working in the space between research and operations. Opinions in posts are mine.
The satellite imagery from the Hunga Tonga eruption is unreal. Direct your attention to the lower right. The eruption then shock wave is simply incredible.
Sometimes I save imagery because it's a highly anomalous phenomenon and sometimes I save imagery because it's meteorologically spectacular.
This is both.
It's truly hard to believe we're witnessing a hurricane near Category 5 intensity in this part of the basin on July 1st.
This is insane. Travel is impossible across New York City and surrounding areas due to flooded roadways. If you are at home, do not leave. Period. As life-threatening as it gets.
To be clear, in this loop we have a westward moving, dissipating cyclonic tornado AND and newly developed anticyclonic tornado also moving west-southwest with a debris signature. This is so incredibly rare it’s hard to describe.
Meteorologists: take care of yourselves too. This will be a long & grueling stretch. Your own mental & physical health matters. Get rest when you can. Take small breaks physically and mentally. You and your audiences benefit from you being as healthy as possible through the event
This needs to be elevated. There are so many un-shareable things that get shared on twitter for no reason.
This is a perfectly shaped bear cloud. Share this instead.
For a smile:
Irma was exhausting and devastated south Florida but I gained two new family members because of it. A year ago I took them home very sick but they’ve recovered and are the sweetest. Then vs now.
In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!
As meteorologists, our passion is often fueled by the awe of nature which informs our desire to keep people safe because we know it’s power. Tonight, it’s simply human. This type of event transcends awe. It’s simply sadness. This tornado has undoubtedly left a wake of tragedy.
I can’t believe I’m tweeting this but there’s now a Moderate Risk (4/5) for severe thunderstorms including a risk for tornadoes and significant damaging winds for portions of Iowa and Minnesota.
On December 15th.
I don’t think there’s a precedent for this.
The longer I go in my career, the more I realize that the ability to show empathy is one of the most important traits one can possess. It diffuses, facilitates active listening and allows people to effectively work together. Never let anyone tell you you’re weak for showing it.
To this day I still don’t understand why some people make meteorology feel so inaccessible to incoming and passionate students. You can learn math; you can learn to code.
Why not just leverage that passion? That’s the one unifying quality across all of us. Don’t turn it away.
Letting the press ask uninterrupted, difficult questions, lending them respect, then acknowledging and coherently addressing them is something I didn’t know that I missed so deeply.
I’m at a loss for words. It seems that even the most aggressive models weren’t aggressive enough in Lee’s intensification.
One of the most astounding feats of the atmosphere that I’ve bore witness to.
This is really difficult for me but I want to share it because so many of you here have been so supportive along the way. She was the toughest kitty but she needed to rest and it was time. Rox passed late this morning peacefully in my arms.
In case anyone needs it tonight — a happy memory. I brought my copilot of 14 years home last year on this date after having to find her safe harbor while I worked Irma. The happiest reunion after an uncertain time.
A violent tornado with a path length >30 miles and ZERO fatalities.
A true testament to how far science and communications have come.
It will never be perfect but it’s important to acknowledge the successes along with the failures of the system.
Our KS storm damage survey team is back and here are the preliminary results:
An EF-4
#tornado
, with estimated peak winds up 170 mph, occurred in Douglas County, KS, and stayed on the ground for 31.82 miles, eventually lifting in southern Leavenworth County, KS.
Over the course of my career, there has always come a point in every high-end weather event where I almost instantaneously humanize the implications of the forecast and it's emotional. You can't change the outcome. You do as much as you can. I am there.
Thank you to all of the NWS meteorologists who can’t be with their families today because they’re serving the public so you can serve your turkey knowing that someone is keeping a watchful eye on the weather.
Just your typical Mojave Desert sounding.
I think what's going to surprise people most is the rainfall *rate*. This area of the country just doesn't see tropical rainfall like this. Not only will it rain a lot but it's going to come down more quickly than most have ever seen.
One of the most difficult components of an event with little historical precedence like Hilary is that, many times, impacts are unknown and that is a nightmare for forecasters and emergency managers alike.
This will likely become the storm of record for many in southern CA.
I know it can be stressful/inconvenient/expensive but please try to include your pets in your evacuation plans. It was a choice to bring them into your home therefore they deserve to be accounted for if home potentially becomes unsafe.
Lee's rate of intensification is nearing the max that is physically possible & all hi-res guidance is suggesting that it could eventually rival some of the strongest TCs that have been observed in the Atlantic basin - time will tell. Regardless, Lee is and will be formidable.
There have only been a handful of storm chases in my lifetime where I’ve watched the full life cycle of convective initiation to tornadogenesis from blue sky. Storm chasing has and always will be a way to connect theory to physical manifestation. It is special.
Guy in the elevator who sees my NWS logo:
“You guys still getting it wrong? *cackle cackle laugh cackle*
Uninterrupted, gloriously awkward silence for 19 floors.
What I love about what’s ongoing right now with the aurora that’s visible across what appears to be the entire US is that we are unified and captivated by its beauty. Let us try and remember that tomorrow when we can’t see it.
If anyone is needing a little strength tonight, this little she-warrior has gone through liver failure, taking a bullet and developing a condition which gives here debilitating seizures and still somehow manages to support her human.
This is one of the more incredible combinations of winds + cold temperatures that I've witnessed, especially along the front range. Look at the gradient associated with the initial frontal push and how quickly the bottom falls out. That's an example for the archives.
After spending this past week at the National Hurricane Center, I just want to reiterate how dedicated every single person is to serving the public. It is incredibly tough to do what they do and I wish more people had the opportunity to be a fly on the wall.
On Christmas especially, I can’t help but think of all the NWS forecasters not at home with their families because they’re serving the general publics. It was always a tough one for me and think it deserves a small thank you on Christmas Day. So, to all who are working — thanks.
As a meteorologist, if this doesn’t turn your stomach inside out, nothing will. When I was younger, my fascination w/ extreme weather superseded my limited understanding of impacts to people. After working many & understanding the human suffering they cause, it only makes me ill.
Thank you to all of the NWS forecasters who are spending this Christmas working to help the rest of us enjoy the holiday season safely. Weather never stops and they don’t either. Taking a moment to raise a glass to all of you.
This is actual insanity. If asked what the current date of this outlook was with no context, I would guess late September/early October. Please let us rest.
Signed,
Everyone
It's hard to overstate how extreme the upcoming wind event forecast is. At 700 mb (~10k ft), winds are forecast to be 90-100 kts (~110-115mph). When downsloping occurs, much of these winds will be realized as the air descends. Gusts along the front range above 100mph are possible
As a final thought, the best way I can encapsulate how amazing Rox was is to describe how she made others feel. She converted so many non-cat lovers to either cat lovers or, at very least, Rox lovers. She brought joy to so many people. Ending w/ my favorite pic of her:
Broadcast and operational meteorologists are partners. Each has the same motive — keep the public safe — and we rely on each other equally; one is not above another. If you demean the other, you’re doing it wrong.
Whatever happens with Florence and the rest of the tropical season, know that there’s an incredible network of people that have dedicated their careers to serving the best interests of their publics. Remaining calm while taking the threat seriously is the best thing you can do.