Supreme Bagholder (@supremebagholder on Threads)
@SupBagholder
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Holder of the bag I own lots of $META and I post on Threads @supremebagholder
Joined April 2016
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$NVDA's top 4 customers account for 40% of revenues, and every one of them is actively working on their own custom AI silicon
AI capex will keep flowing to NVDA in the short run, but what will happen when initial training is done and inference is done locally
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Every day I ask myself, "Am I wrong about $META." And I get to the same conclusion, a resounding "No."
I am either really fucking smart, or really fucking stupid.
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Zuckerberg's full remark on an All Hands meeting earlier today.
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People talking all day about $META spending $10B/year on the Metaverse, but noone talks about $AMZN spending $10B/year on Alexa.
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@Mach9Poker
@frantzfries
Have you been outside in the last decade? We already live in a virtual world
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Bill Gates bought 38,320,050 $MSFT in Q3.
26% of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust
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$TSLA Net Cash Flow of 847 mil is MISLEADING. 936 mil comes from BTC Sale. Seems like
@elonmusk
asked their acocuntants to make sure they have positive cash flow this Q.
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Zuck just announced $META is on track to reach 350,000 H100s by the end of 2024
Compare to this graph from H1 2023
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Do you know how many google searches and time it takes to make this kind of travel itinerary?
Might be foolish, but my view on $GOOGL's moat has changed drastically.
This is a personalized search, which took 30 seconds to make.
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Tiger Global has invested in Bytedance at a valuation of 460B. $FB is currently valued at ~520B. Big blue, Instagram, WhatsApp/Messenger, Reality labs.. for the same price as Bytedance.
Just food for thought
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To everyone that told me to sell at $90. Here's my response.
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Bought more $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL today
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If I listened to what fintwit told me, I would have bought $meta at $300, and sold at $90
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Who the fuck sells Meta on those numbers?
They guided miss by 1%. They beat everywhere else.
Opex and Capex increased. But with a 20%+ top line growth rate, I'll allow Zuck to spend.
Very good earnings. I'm happy. I'll buy more if it drops
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$MSFT a giant in the gaming space acquires $ATVI, yet $FB can't acquire fucking Giphy?
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The $META pain is self-inflicted. It's artificial FCF destruction.
The top line and core engagement metrics are doing well. I love seeing fintwit gurus making it sound like the business is in terminal decline
Facts are $META has no discipline. They burn everything they make.
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Bookmarked a ton of juicy comments when Meta was trading at 90.
I'm going to enjoy reading them over the next few weeks.. and years
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$FB shareholders remembering the last time $NFLX had a miss
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A big tech company, one of the most studied in the world just went from 88$ to 350$ in just over a year
I’m still mind blown
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$META India Revenue:
2019: Rs 2,254 Crore
2020: Rs 6,613 Crore
2021: Rs 9,326 Crore
2022: Rs 16,189 Crore
8x in 4 years.
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Zuck looked like he hasn't slept in a week. He looks more human than any other big tech ceo or billionaire.
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$META's headset literally does 99% of what Apple Vision Pro does, with best GAMING on VR, for 1/7th of the price.
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No longer bag holding $META. Officially broke even as an aggregate across all my account.
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But.. but.. but.. $META is crashing because TikTok is stealing all the attention and advertisers!
#ripfb
Meanwhile, TT slashes revenue estimates by >20%.
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Wondered why $META's FCF plummeted recently? The answer is not the metaverse
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I never hear $META bears bring up the India opportunity this decade.
Internet Penetration only 47% (exp. 70% in 2025)
$META and $GOOGL owns Jio, biggest internet provider
Mobile-first country (similar to China)
~8% GDP growth
No Tiktok
WA/IG firmly entrenched in society
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$META $1000 confirmed
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Meta Advertising: 26.7% yoy 👑
LinkedIn: 10% yoy
MSFT Search: 12% yoy
GOOGL Search: 14.5% yoy
GOOGL Youtube: 20.8% yoy
GOOGL Network: -1.1% yoy
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Clean beat $META
EPS: $5.33 v. $4.83e
Revenue: $40.1B v. $39.0Be
Expenses in line too. We're good. Congrats Everyone!
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$meta is acquiring a MILLION Nvidia GPUs.
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$META at 280, officially 220% since it bottomed LESS THAN A 12 MONTHS AGO.
Congrats, B̴a̴g̴h̴o̴l̴d̴e̴r̴s̴ Shareholders
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Want $NVDA AI exposure?
Want $AMZN AWS exposure?
Want $AAPL iphone/ipad exposure?
All this at insanely attractive valuations. I present you $MU
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Best single-day move in history
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I can't justify eating out or do ANY discretionary spending when $META is at this price
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An 80% gross margin business trading at 2x sales.
What a time to be alive
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Sold half my $META. I've been way overexposed when it reached low 90$. Remains my biggest position
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When $META flatlines user growth at 3B DAUs everyone losing their damn minds
But no-one says anything about Tiktok's engagement flatline. This is not normal to see such a young platform flatline engagement so fast.
Ill tell you why, Reels and Shorts are doing well.
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Every single $META executive has INCREASED their share ownership from 2022 to 2023 (as of April 14th).
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Only buying more $GOOGL once it reaches Turd status. Which means negative on a 5 year basis.
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Aswath $META's DOOMSDAY scenario values $META at 258B.
I edited the assumptions on screen.
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Around 10% of $META's market cap is Cash and Marketable securities
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@RiaRevealed
@divya_gandotra
@elonmusk
There is exacly 0 correlation with what people accomplished in their lifes and blue check mark.
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$ANF is doing a fantastic job. I recommend listening to their call today. All their traffic comes from ads.
They explicitly call out success of their top-of-funnel ads. This is $META folks.
Congrats on the amazing quarter.
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$META is no longer a story of cost control, it's a story of revenue growth, growing faster than all other big tech that reported so far.
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The average ad price decreases only 17% with ad load increase 26%. Meta monetizing Reels like crazy. Will only continue to increase.
Beat on engagement numbers, both DAU and MAUs
Congrats bagholders. $META
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$SNAP is reporting before $META and $GOOGL. rip
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$META always wins social media.
Outperforming Tiktok by a wide margin.
Who would have believed this a few months ago?
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"Nobody asked for a Metaverse, we want to live in real life!" $META
Real Life:
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-Aswath "Value Goat" Damodaran
"The drop in operating margin that you saw in the last 12 months should not be read to mean that the online advertising business is somehow melting down, it's still a cash cow, a tremendous money machine"
Said with the smoothest voice known to man
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I can't believe I spotted the Chinese surveillance ballon. Right here!
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$META announces cutting costs by AT LEAST 10%, the thing that shareholders have been asking for months, and we still underperform the $QQQ. Nice
$META has ~80% gross margin and brings at 23%
There are a lot of costs we can cut there. Looking forward to it.
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Pat Dorsey came up with the Morningstar Economic Moat Rating. He is sometimes referred to as "Mr. Moat".
Interesting to see that $FB is the biggest bet in his concentrated portfolio.
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- 11k layoffs from both FOA and RL
- 13% of workforce
- Cutting discretionary spending (No more snacks sorry)
- extending hiring freeze through Q1
- Shrink RE footprint
- AI and RL capex still a priority
Zuckerberg takes full responsibility
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Remember when the whole internet was complaining to Zuck about Instagram pushing reels? Once again, Zuck was right. All metrics show massive adoption of reels, and already 50% of Tiktok's engagement ex-China.
Almost as if those with the data know what they are doing.
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Nothing will beat this tweet
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$AAPL 5% away from ATH
$META 5% away for 5 year low
👍
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$META officially hit a new ATH at $384.40
I will release ALL my receipts
Sneak Peak:
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I need to know if this person is still working at Meta. Reach out if you have any information
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Take a look at the comments under this wonderful tweet. Truly deserves to be framed on my wall
$META Flaming dumpster fire 🔥 miss, guide even worse. Rev DOWN 4% yet costs up 19% 😵! Users flat, but average ad price -18% y/y. 🤮 Not Inflation! Capex 2x+. Added 19k employees +28% y/y 😱. Zero cost control. Expects costs to grow from ~$85bn ‘22 up to $101bn in ‘23. 🤯
#RIP
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$META is evolving into what it was always meant to be.
The developing world is using WA in ways Americans can't understand
Their lives literally run on WA. Many books multiple services a day on WA, but meta never monetized it, until now
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Just watched
@joecarlsonshow
video on $META and I have a few comments. First I just want to say tremendous respect for the guy, who built a great YT channel where many learn about long-term investing.
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There is no bigger $Meta bull than yours truly. And I can't be more than excited to see the market finally realizing Meta's moat.
They can take ANY idea, and push it to 3B users. No other company can do that. Ultimate distribution.
Went from >70 allocation, to now ~30%
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$META ain't losing market share to a fucking headset with waist mounted battery
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I hear talks from fellow $FB bagholders that Zuck may be looking into buying $SNAP.
Don't, Zuck. Nothing compelling in a business operating for a decade which still makes no money. Snap's story was on the youth but it seems Tiktok stole it from them.
Just buy back more shares.
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When this clown makes a negative video about a company, it is time to start buying.
$META $DIS
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$GOOGL misses everything except their ads revenue LOL
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Every. Single. Time.
$SNAP
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Meta's advantage+ seems to be doing good work.
"He added that for every $1 spent on a website advertising campaign through Advantage+, clients were generating $7 in returns — nearly as high as before Apple’s privacy changes."
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He knows what his doing
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Never imagined $META would hit 260 this quickly. What a monster.
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Hating $FB is like hating a mirror when it shows a reflection of yourself
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This is just mindblowing imo. This single usecase can sell 10s of millions of headsets
My
#mixedreality
4 screen setup using
@ImmersedVR
. 🔥 The
#Meta
#QuestPro
has incredible text clarity. Mind you, this is through a phone camera lens (it doesn’t do it justice).
#MetaQuestPro
#vr
#ar
#mr
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Going through my $META trades, I bottom ticked 89$
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$META is bringing back 28-day attribution, which was first removed with ios 14
I can't understate how important this is
We already know $META is underclaiming revenues by 48%, bringing back 28day attribution will claw back some of that lost attribution
Underclaim of Revenue by 48%. $META ads work, but it doesn't attribute them efficiently yet. Even considering declining users/time spent, the fact are meta is underreporting revenues, and there's a lot of value to be unlocked there
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@damalen96
@unusual_whales
Zuckerberg's compensation is 0. Litteraly doesn't get paid anything for years.
He does have a defense budget as being one of the most hated person on earth tho
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I am coming to the realization that $META will not curbe down their costs. Or they will in 2024.
This is devastating. But in the long term, it doesn't matter.
It's clear that FOA is Strong
-Increased engagement
-Increased DAU/MAU worldwide
-Increased Time Spent
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A new ATH for $META is approaching. Soon, the term "Bagholder" will no longer apply to any of us.
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God damn, I hope I never go back to the state of mind I was back then.
I was quite literally questioning my sanity on a daily basis.
I believe I have gotten one of the best investing lessons I could have ever gotten: "Nobody knows shit, just stick to your DD"
Every day I ask myself, "Am I wrong about $META." And I get to the same conclusion, a resounding "No."
I am either really fucking smart, or really fucking stupid.
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I'm as bullish as ever on $META.
All headwinds from 2022 are tailwinds in 2023 and 2024.
- Reels still net negative until late 2023
- Overlapping ATT
- Reality Labs operating loss will revert in 2024 with Quest 3.
- FX headwinds turning into tailwind h2 2023 and 2024.
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This made my day
I wonder if Apple's ATT pushed Meta into heavy investment in AI from 2020 onwards, ultimately contributing to its position as an AI leader in 2024.
Meta always invested in AI. My point is that ATT probably created a sense of urgency to build the infrastructure much earlier.
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Why is everyone on FinTwit obsessed with a $META like move?
It's not fucking $META.
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Who is still talking crap about $META now?
-Ad rev comming in at 23% growth and raising guidance.
-50B buy back
Engagement numbers STILL pumping at 7% yoy.
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Americans are more worried about a balloon than Tiktok which scrapes everything about 200 mil Americans.
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You will never have bigger balls than Zuckerberg
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All-time high global CPMs on FB and IG
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The ramifications of this COULD be tremendous for $META.
Having an app that people open every day, multiple times a day. A place where you search, order, and connect with businesses in the same 1 place.
Need to closely track this new feature usage across these countries.
For people in 🇧🇷🇨🇴🇮🇩🇲🇽🇬🇧: you can now search for businesses using our WhatsApp Business Platform right on
@WhatsApp
, either by browsing a list of categories – like travel or banking – or by typing the name.
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We like to see it. $MSFT $META
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5 million in 4 hours.
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$MSFT biggest competitive advantage is the ability to buy any company without regulatory scrutiny.
Maybe $FB will have this opportunity in 15-20 years.
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