Subhash Chandra Garg
@Subhashgarg1960
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Author ‘The $10 Trillion Dream’, ‘Commentary on Budget 2023-24’ & ‘We Also Make Policy’. Ex-IAS; Former Finance & Economic Affairs Secretary, India.
New Delhi, India
Joined August 2017
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India’s GDP in Q1 2019-20 was Rs. 33.05 trillion. Q1 2022-23 GDP has come at Rs. 34.42 trillion. Q1 GDP has grown by Rs. 1.09 trillion in 3 years. Three year growth is 3.3%. Time to celebrate 13.5% year on year growth or to do a serious introspection on why are standing still?
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In the face of the spate of fresh allegations, SEBI chief Madhabi Buch and the Government have chosen to be totally silent. Clarifications filed by ICICI Bank and Wockhardt raise more questions. This brazenness Will hurt Buch, SEBI and the Government.
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GDP growth for second quarter 2018-19 at 7.1% seems disappointing. Manufacturing growth at 7.4% and agriculture growth at 3.8% is steady. Construction at 6.8% and mining at -2.4% reflect monsoon months deceleration. Half year growth at 7.4% is still quite robust and healthy.
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Handed over charge of Economic Affairs today. Learnt so much in the Finance Ministry and Economic Affairs Dept. Will take charge in Power Ministry tomorrow. Have also applied for Voluntary Retirement from the IAS with effect from 31st October. Last tweet from this handle.
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Lot of misinformed speculation is going around in media. Government’s fiscal math is completely on track. There is no proposal to ask RBI to transfer 3.6 or 1 lakh crore, as speculated. (continued...).
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Excellent numbers of IIP growth for June. IIP rises by 7%. Capital goods growth 9.6%. First quarter IIP growth stands at 5.2% with manufacturing also recording same growth. 19 out of 23 industry groups recorded positive growth with computer and electronics growth at 44%.
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Q2-23 GDP growth slides to 6.3%. Next 2 qtr. growth expected below 4.5%. H1-23 GDP of Rs. 75.02 trillion only Rs. 4.07 trillion higher than H1-20 GDP. 3 year growth only 1.82% per annum. India is sinking in a new low growth trap. Awake, recognise & reform before it is too late.
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GDP growth of 6.5% for 2017-18 implies growth of 7% for the second half. Confirms strong turnaround of economy. Investment growth of almost twice of last years indicate investment reviving.
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Rupee trading at less than 73 to a dollar, Brent crude below $73 a barrel, markets up by over 4% during the week and bond yields below 7.8%. Wrath of the markets?
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Hindenburg vs SEBI: The Best Course of Action for Madhabi Buch is to Resign. My op-ed in the Quint.
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The numbers in my last tweet are GVA (gross value added). GDP numbers for Q1 2019-20 and Q1 2022-23 are Rs. 35.67 trillion and Rs. 36.85 trillion respectively. 3 year GDP growth of Rs. 1.18 trillion still remains 3.3%. My conclusions remain as earlier.
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Printing of notes is planned as per the projected requirement. We have more than adequate notes of Rs 2000 in the system with over 35% of notes by value in circulation being of Rs 2000. There has been no decision regarding 2000 rupee note production recently.
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Happy to join as Advisor Resources to CM, AP. State has initiated a number of efficient & effective DBT schemes under Navaratnalu umbrella. State has considerable legacy financial stress, which ongoing economic slowdown has deepened further. Hope to find sustainable solutions.
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No crypto bill. But, taxation at 30% of transfer gains. Additionally, 1% TCS at the time of transfer. Party seems to be over for crypto assets and exchanges.
Digital rupee announcement is more formal. RBI not prepared its model or tested it. No indication of enabling law.
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GST collections exceeding one lakh crore, rupee appreciating by 40-50 paise, crude below $75 a barrel and bond yields reverting towards 7.8%. Very good developments essential for sound macroeconomic performance of India.
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G 20 Leaders’ Meet in Buenous Aires just concluded. It was also announced with unanimous approval that India will host G20 Presidency in 2022 and Italy will do so in 2021.
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Moving out of the IAS today. Over 36 years of incredibly satisfying, gratifying and fulfilling experience. Look forward now to a new innings outside Government in Finance and Economic policy making related work. A Note summarises my service experience and plans (1/2).
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SBI today stepped up substantially a facility for purchasing portfolio of assets from NBFCs to provide liquidity to NBFCs. SBI would buy such portfolios up to a total amount of Rs. 45000 cr. This measure should alleviate liquidity concerns to a great extent.
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Government has reassessed additional borrowing requirements taking note of revenue receipts and expenditure pattern. Requirement of additional borrowing being reduced from Rs 50000 crore as notified earlier to Rs 20000 crore.
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Excellent growth performance in I qrtr. 8.2% overall growth, 13.5% growth in manufacturing and over 10% in capital formation. V shaped recovery of growth in Indian economy is complete now. We should grow at robust and steady state in 18-19 remaining fastest economy in World.
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LIC listed at a discount as suspected. 2 crore shares, about 10% of the issue, sold and bought in first 15 minutes. Possibly, there is sponsored buying. True value is less than half the issue price. Looks like LIC shares are rushing towards its right valuation.
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Turn around in demand and financing conditions beginning very well. PMI manufacturing is at 52.7. Crude is moving towards 60 dollars. Govt bond yield has gone below 7%. Spread for NBFCs/HFCs over Govt bond is narrowing. Rupee is firmly below 70. Sure signs of coming high growth.
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Sound first quarter fiscal performance. Expenditure at 29% of BE with capital expenditure also rising by 18660 crore over last year. Tax Revenues at 17.39% of BE higher than last year. Also non-tax. Fiscal Deficit at 4.3 lakh crore lower than 4.4 lakh crore last year.
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World Bank releases its GDP growth estimates. India projected to grow at 6.7% in 2017. Higher growth of 7.3% projected for 2018. Impressive advance corporate tax payments in 3rd quarter indicates India’s growth turnaround to be much better.
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Committee is very receptive and supportive of distributed ledger technologies and recommends its widespread use in delivering financial services. It also opens up door for a possible official digital rupee. Private crypto currencies are of no real value. Rightly banned.
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Cryptocurrencies like bitcoins are neither currency nor coin. Not legal tender in India at all. Trade in these currencies has assumed character of classical Ponzi schemes. Limited supply and uninformed demand makes every new investor assume higher risk. No underlying real value.
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Demonetisation and GST reflect long term vision of the Government and its ability to undertake massive structural reforms. Tax filers under both Direct and Indirect taxes are close to getting doubled. Digital payments have risen sharply & become common place. Fake notes are out.
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Only proposal under discussion is to fix appropriate economic capital framework of RBI.
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I would have superannuated from Government today in normal course. In this Note I explain the reasons of my taking voluntary retirement, what I did during last one year and my plans from now on. Read on:
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Spoke for mandatorily shifting 1.3 million active Indian companies to digital only accounting, auditing and financial reporting and development of new standards for digital accounting and financial reporting and digital assets including crypto assets:
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Very healthy advance GDP growth numbers for 2018-19. GDP grows by 7.2% compared to 6.7% in 2017-18. India remains fastest growing major economy globally. At current prices GDP grows by 12.3% rising to 188.41 lakh crore. Per capita GDP at current prices rises to Rs. 141447.
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With almost all of Revenues and Expenditure accounted for (some minor accounting adjustments remaining), I can confirm that both Fiscal Deficit and Revenue Deficit are lower than the Revised Estimates for 2017-18.
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Happy to see Fintech Report released by the Ministry of Finance. I had chaired this Group. The Report makes several very practical and useful recommendations to mainstream Fintech across entire spectrum of financial services and also several other services.
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Massive increase in capital expenditure, rising to over 10 lakh crore in 2023-34 budget, is the top most USP of the Government since 2021-22. The reality, however, is much different than the hype. My op-ed in Deccan Herald.
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After core sector growth at 6.8%, exports growth exceeding 30% and PMI at multi year high of 54.7, IIP growth at 8.4% in November confirms sound manufacturing revival. We can expect industrial growth to be higher in second half for GDP growth to exceed CSO estimates of 6.5%.
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Bilateral Swap arrangement with Japan for USD 75 billion is one of the largest Swap arrangement in the World. Accepting Japanese request, India agreed to do away with requirement of mandatory hedging for infrastructure ECBs of 5 years or more minimum average maturity.
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Government’s FD in FY 2013-14 was 5.1%. From 2014-15 onwards, Government has succeeded in bringing it down substantially. We will end the FY 2018-19 with FD of 3.3%. Government has actually foregone 70000 crore of budgeted market borrowing this year. ( continued .....)
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My assessment of true state of India’s fiscal deficit, debt and liabilities at my blog: Subhash Chandra Garg- Economic and Finance Policy Strategist: State of India's Fiscal Deficit and Debt
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GDP Q2 growth slipped below 5% at 4.5%. H1 growth only at 4.6%. Nominal Q2 growth has fallen to 6.1%. Fixed capital formation growth at .9%! GDP 2019-20 may not exceed 5% in real and 8% in real terms. Goal of $5 trillion economy seems to be slipping by at least one year.
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Quite a volatile and eventful year, closed on a very steady and benevolent note. Equity markets and bond yields are very close to last year’s levels. Crude is down and rupee has recovered substantially. Hope for steadier and stable markets in 2019.
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FRDI Bill proposes to protect existing rights of the depositors. There is no dilution thereof. Instead it enhances present protections in certain ways. Principal guarantee for PSU Banks’ depositors come from Government ownership which also remains completely unaffected.
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Fastest expansion in Composite PMI Output Index in November since October 2016. Rising to 54.5. PMI notes quickest pace of growth in exports in November in last four years. Overall strong increase in business activity and in demand. Should augur well for 3rd quarter GDP growth.
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8% Savings Bonds Scheme, also known as RBI Bonds Scheme, is not being closed. 8% Scheme is being replaced by 7.75% Savings Bonds Scheme.
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A very balanced and pragmatic policy statement. Assessment of growth and inflation is quite realistic and underlines low inflation and high growth path for India for 2019-20. Welcome change of stance to neutral and rate cut by 25 bps. Also welcome removal of FPI restriction.
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Changed my twitter handle to
@Subhashgarg1960
after transfer from Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. Wish everyone all well.
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Let us all work to take India closer to a $10 trillion economy with per capita average income of over $5000 in this decade beginning today. Best wishes for a happy, healthy, prosperous and highly productive 2020 and 2020s. Subhash
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Fiscal accounts numbers released yesterday indicated end February position. We now have flash numbers until 28th March. We are very close to RE estimates for both Fiscal Deficit and Revenue Deficit. Quite confidant that FD will be within 3.5% of GDP.
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Telecom is most critical infrastructure for fast expanding digital economy. It is however broke in India presently, which if not solved will endanger India’s 5 trillion dollar economy goal. What is required for Rebuilding Telecom Business in India. Read on
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Public Provident Fund (PPF) Deposits enjoy protection from being attached. All existing protections have been saved while consolidating PPF Act under proposed Government Savings Promotion Act. Existing and new PPF deposits would continue to have this protection.
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In this Webinar, made case for evolution of demat paper currency as digital currency of future, outlawing of pretender cryptocurrencies to protect people and to allow regulated development and trading of crypto assets as commodities. Watch: via
@YouTube
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Government in public interest moved NCLT to supersede the management of ILFS on grounds of mismanagement. NCLT has allowed appointment of a new Board comprising of people with proven record of turn around and managing financial and infrastructure institutions. Not a takeover.
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Heady GDP growth of 8.4% for Q3 and over 8% for 3 quarters flashed. Why is then Q4 growth only 5.9%? Why nominal GDP revised down by 2.68 trillion? Dollar GDP goes down making $5 trillion goal drift apart. My op-ed on curious case of GDP numbers in Quint.
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There are 8 cr. MSMEs in India which have suffered most in the current lockdown-Rs. 5 trillion of GDP loss and 10 cr. jobless workers. Two credit based packages speculated in media will not work. What is right fiscal package and how to deliver it? Read:
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India has improved its ease of doing business rank by as much as 42 in three years- from 142 to 100. Big reforms and simplification done.
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RBI earns surplus of Rs. 1497 billion for 2019-20. Retains Rs. 736 billion. Transfers to Govt. Rs. 571 billion (44% only). Lowest transfer and largest retention in last seven years. Real gift of Bimal Jalan Panel to the Govt!
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NIIF made its first investment today. NIIF and DP World created an investment platform for ports, terminals, transportation and logistics business in India. This platform is expected to mobilise equity investment of Rs. 20000 crore in these infrastructure facilities.
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Given further moderation in inflation expectations as estimated by RBI, rate cut of 25 bps is entirely appropriate. This should help in sustaining India’s growth to around 7.2-7.3% in FY 20.
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Another month of strong IIP performance in December. Grows by 7.1% with manufacturing rising by 8.4% and capital goods 16.4%. Builds on momentum of last month.
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15th Finance Commission constituted with Shri N K Singh as Chairman. The Commission will recommend devolution of shareable central taxes to the States and their inter-se distribution. Commission will also review several important aspects of federal fiscal finance.
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Another very good IIP growth number came out today. For Feb. 2018, IIP rose by 7.1%. Manufacturing grew by 8.7% marking fourth month of growth over 8.5%. Capital goods grew by 20% with last three months growth being over 15%.
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Fiscal Deficit at 3.3% for 2018-19, backed with statutory commitment to bring it down to 3% by 20-21 (might actually be achieved in 19-20) and further supported with a commitment to bring down debt to GDP ratio to 40% by 2024-25 is truly strong fiscal consolidation plan.
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GDP growth at 6.3% for II quarter marks India resuming path of higher growth. Soon, we should be achieving 7% plus and then 8% plus growth with the transition to post GST getting completed. Fundamentals have strengthened enormously.
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After bottoming out at 5.6% in Q1 2017-18, growth has steadily built up rising by .7% in every quarter to 6.3% in Q2, 7% in Q3 and 7.7% in Q4. Hope to see our economy maintain such higher growth at 7.2% to 8% every quarter for India to see growth of 7.5% in 2018-19.
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A very happy Diwali to all. Let us take current slowdown in our stride and work to turn the tide for higher growth. Let us celebrate Diwali with joy and happiness. No crackers please to keep the air quality healthy in the interest of us all.
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Serious change taking pace in fiscal relationship between centre and states in India. From cooperative federation, it has become competitive federalism. It might move towards fiscal unionism. My responses to Business Standard in BS today.
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Manufacturing PMI at 54.3 in Feb is 14 month high and indicates strong inflow of new orders. Q4 2018-19 should mark further strengthening of manufacturing GVA and upward movement of GDP growth.
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September witnessed good IIP growth at 3.8%. Manufacturing growth at 3.4% was highest in 6 months. Rebound in IIP incl capital goods clear.
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UPI payments in August crossed 31 crore mark rising by 32% over July. Digitalisation of payments in India is marching ahead with gusto. With base of 100 million Indians connected with digital payment ecosystem rising at a fast clip, India will soon be a digital payment society.
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Exports of goods effected impressive turnaround in November rising by 30.55%. Most impressive is growth in engineering goods (44%), gems and jewellery (33%) and Chemicals (54%). 12% growth in dollar terms in first 7 months.
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India, the oldest continuing civilisation, is celebrating Independence. India is also one of the youngest nation with 28 year of median age. Let us commit ourselves to make India one of the richest nation with a 10 trillion dollar economy by early 2030s.
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Core sector growth rises impressively to 6.8% in November. Steel and Cement growth at very high growth rates 16.6% and 17.3% indicates restoration of the production in these sectors over pre demonetisation levels. Augurs well for real sector investment.
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GDP estimates for 2018-19 released today needs to be viewed in correct perspective. Downward revision to 7% from 7.2% in 1st Adv Est is against revision of GDP of 2017-18 from 6.7% to 7.2%. Average GDP of two years taken together is 7.1% as against earlier estimate of 6.95%.
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Foreign Portfolio Investors have returned to invest in equity and debt quite strongly in November. FPIs investment at 4786 crore in equity and 6139 crore in debt, together at 10925 crore, is the highest during the financial year. Hope to see still stronger flow in coming months.
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PM released new series of coins today in presence of divyangs with Rs 20 introduced first time. Differential matrix of weight, size and serration makes coins of Rs 1,2,5,10 and 20 easily identifiable by visually impaired. New coins are easily distinguishable from old as well.
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No fundamental rationale for rupee to depreciate to levels we saw till yesterday. It reflected overreaction of market operators. Government and RBI will do everything to ensure that rupee does not slide to unreasonable levels. Today’s correction seems to reflect that realisation.
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COVID19 lockdown has shuttered 70% economy. 10 crore workers are jobless. States tax revenues have collapsed. Credit is not reaching businesses. Phaseout needs careful planning to limit economic costs. Unconventional fiscal and monetary approach needed..
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Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies will raise $10 billion for 3-5 year for financing their permanent working capital. RBI has also granted necessary exemptions under the ECB policy.
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Govt has today specified denomination of bank note of Rs 200 value. Soon this note will get added to the bucket of currency notes in India.
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Participated today in the launch of CriSidEx- an index to measure sentiment of MSMEs. Confirms very good confidence in MSMEs about their business prospects and order books. Sentiments improve further for next quarter. Kudos to SIDBI and CRISIL to launch this valuable Index.
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GDP growth at 7% does not indicate slowing down when compared to 7.2% of 1st Adv Est. This is on top of revised growth of 7.2% of 2017-18 asagainst growth of 6.7% per earlier estimate.
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A news agency has published an item attributed to unnamed Finance Ministry official about dividend getting reduced from oil marketing companies, subsidies cut, lesser disinvestment revenue etc. This is completely fabricated. Nothing of this is true at all.
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Very encouraging and solid 3rd quarter growth numbers from CSO. 7.2% growth marks return of India as the highest growing major economy in the world. Manufacturing growth at 8.1% and construction growth at 6.8% confirms robust turnaround in industrial economy.
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Reports about any Chinese currency printing corporation getting any orders for printing Indian currency notes are totally baseless. Indian currency notes are being and will be printed only in Indian Government and RBI currency presses.
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Government welcomes MPC statement and decision to keep the rates unchanged. Government ‘s assessment of inflation is in line with the MPC’s assessment. We believe growth should turn out to be higher than that projected by MPC.
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Let us celebrate Diwali by pledging to make India prosperous- a $10 trillion economy-, with rich human capital- right skills to create enormous value in fast digitalising world- and enjoying healthy environment- blue sky, green earth and no air and water pollution. Best wishes.
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Fugitive Economic Offenders Bill will usher in an efficient system to force them to return and face law or else be deprived of their properties acquired as a result of the proceeds of crime or otherwise. Fugitives will lose property on the basis of arrest warrant not conviction.
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Petrol prices cut by another 15 paise in Delhi today. Almost two rupees down from its price 14 days ago. Likewise substantial reduction in diesel price as well. Also reflect Brent crude, petrol and diesel prices declining from their peak and steadying.
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Massive jump in India’s ease of doing business rankings by the World Bank- 30 ranks jump in one year, the highest in the World. Cheers.
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Moving out of the IAS today. Over 36 years of incredibly satisfying, gratifying and fulfilling experience. Look forward now to a new innings outside Government in Finance and Economic policy making related work. A Note summarises my service experience and plans (2/2).
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August consumer price index at 3.69% (down from 4.17% in July) indicates further moderation in retail inflation. Food inflation in August at .29% only guards majority of poor people from any rise in prices. Sound Indian macroeconomic story continues.
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With core sector growth of 4.9% and sectors like auto growing in double digits, expect second quarter growth to bounce back handsomely.
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Especially gratifying, impressive and promising is the growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). 12.2% real growth in 2018-19 compared to 7.6% in in 2017-18 heralds excellent pick up in investment activity. GFCF as a ratio to GDP has risen to 32.9% from 31.4% in 2017-18.
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NIIF is making an investment of 660 crore today in 4290 crore HDFC Capital Affordable Real Estate Fund to provide mezzanine finance. With this NIIF’s Fund of Fund stream also becomes functional. NIIF playing its due role in infrastructure development of the country.
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Robust and confidence building GDP numbers as released by CSO today. GDP growth in 4th quarter at 7.7% is highest in last 7 quarters. Construction growth at 11.5% and manufacturing at 9.1% in Q4 soundly confirms growth momentum building in the Indian economy.
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Several industry segments record resounding and impressive GVA growth in 2018-19 compared to 2017-18. Manufacturing at 8.3% against 5.7%, Construction at 8.9% against 5.7% and Electricity, Gas, Water Supply and Utilities at 9.4% against 7.2% are star performers.
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GDP contraction at 24% in quarter I 2020-21 confirms my assessment of it contracting by 25%. We are not out of woods still. Indicators of economic performance of July and August 2020 suggest we might have contraction of about 12-15% in Q2.
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There is no proposal to reintroduce 1000 rupee note.
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Attempts to create scare regarding bail in were totally unfounded. 70% deposits are in PSBs. Most remaining deposits are in well capitalised and sound private banks. No likelihood of bail in for over 98% of depositors. Remaining also subject to bail in if the depositors consent.
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Visited 4 leading bookstores, met owners, signed book The $10 Trillion Dream for purchasers and for the stores. It was a great feeling to see the book doing so well and all stores quite excited and motivated.
@PenguinIndia
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