Snarkus Aurelius, PhD ๐จ๐ฆ๐ซ๐ท๐บ๐ฆ+๐ฌ๐ช
@SnarkusAurelius
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Cartoon dog on the Internet. Philosophy prof IRL. #NAFO . Slava Ukraini. I block liberally and without remorse. Substack:
Ontario Oblast
Joined September 2021
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FELLASOPHY LESSONS
I'm moving all of my Twitter/X-based philosophy threads to Substack, in a publication called "Fellasophy Lessons." It will always be 100% free.
This is a meta-thread on which I'll announce new content. Please see the next post in this thread for the link.
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@_zs971
@JulianRoepcke
๐ท๐บ art: boom
๐บ๐ฆ counter-bat radar: oh snap, that came from x,y
๐บ๐ฆ drone: going to x, y!
๐บ๐ฆ art: boom on x, y
๐บ๐ฆ drone: missed! adjust a bit!
๐บ๐ฆ art: adjusted, boom
๐ท๐บ art: ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
๐บ๐ฆ drone: ooh, what techno soundtrack should we use?
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So, this grim assessment is making the rounds, and Iโฆhave thoughts.
This might be a rant. It brings up many things Iโve been trying to put into my SStack but havenโt had the time.
1/ oh who GAF
The West is losing the war: current efforts are insufficient to prevent the fall of key Ukrainian regions to Putin in the next 2 years.
1/16 ๐งตThe facts you need to know
(Follow for a second part on good and bad sanctions)
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I made a new friend this morning.
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Okay, everyone, time for a philosophy lesson! This will help illuminate a lot about Twitterโs malevolent overlord, and why he does what he does.
Long ๐งต. 1/25
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Let me tell you all a Covid story. Some of you Fellas wonโt like it. Itโs about dealing with the States.
1/
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@IAPonomarenko
Ukrainians found a way to make curling interesting? They truly are a remarkable people!
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@ThreshedThought
@OwenLaw76
Maybe if Musk did a better job of staying in his lane, then his cars would, too.
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Ukraine has been starved of ammo and equipment for six months. The russians have enjoyed a 10-1 artillery advantage. And they have capturedโฆa town that when I learned where it was, I damned near choked on my coffee. Avdiivka! Itโs so close to Donetsk! Cโmon, russia!
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But isnโt this a sign of failure and desperationโฆfor russia?
russia has failed SO BADLY with a 10-1 artillery advantage and a robust manpower advantage, that they have to invade elsewhere just to see some success? AND THEN DONโT?
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So, what now?
This is a little more of a downbeat how-to thread, given the near-certain (if not completed) fall of Soledar. Many folks weren't in the Fellaspace during earlier defeats, so I think it's worth going over some things to keep us focused on our mission. A ๐งต. 1/
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@nexta_tv
1. Assuming they know where those centres are anymore.
2. Isn't that what they were trying to do weeks ago?!
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The front in Kharkiv seems to have stabilized, under a week later? Chatter is turning into โrussia may not have the troops for their aims thereโฆmight have to pull from elsewhere.โ A week. A week!
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In short, I agree that the West needs to do more, but I think his assessment is flawed and his predictions beggar belief.
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What I really want Americans on here to realize, as we anxiously watch the counter for the discharge petition, is that it is not unusual for US domestic issues to cause real, tangible harm to people around the world.
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Rheinmettal ๐ฉ๐ช is setting up factories, Roshel ๐จ๐ฆ is setting up factories. Others too! Weโre just going to set up production lines for Nato equipment in territory thatโs in imminent threat of occupation?
No.
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So please, Americans, please consider how your internal debates affect the world at large. Hopefully once putin is hanged and the orange turd is flushed, there can be a reset where Americans take their role on the world stage seriously.
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Look. Hereโs my thinking, and maybe Iโm wrong.
The West wouldnโt be setting up arms factories within Ukraine if they thought Ukraine was going to fold like a cheap suit just when these factories are hitting their stride.
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My rant:
Iโm old enough to remember when people were saying the same thing, except on a smaller timescale, back in the halcyon days of 2022.
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Americans often donโt realize that their domestic crap doesnโt end at their border. And itโs been going on for far longer than the invasion of Ukraine. Longer than Covid. We even have a saying up here: when the US sneezes, Canada catches the cold.
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Can things get bad? Yes. Will they get worse before they get better? Probably?
Kharkiv by the end of โ24.
Pull the other one.
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Odesa by the end of โ25. Getting there by land? Right. By sea? Good luck.
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Maybe what he predicts will happen will, unfortunately, come to pass. God help us all if it does.
Butโฆit aligns too closely to traditional russian narratives for me to take it at face value.
Exercise caution.
End rant.
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russia has put their economy on wAr FoOtInGโโ
russia is cannibalizing its long-term viability for questionable short-term goals; i.e. theyโre fucking themselvesโโ
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But just to drive this home: The US political establishment and general population was basically okay with my wife, me, and my kids dying because Trump gonna Trump and sometimes itโs just like that. Please let that sink in.
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But it seems to me that this grim assessment is yet another version of the russia stronk/putin 4d chessmaster trope.
Maybe Iโm wrong and russia will maraud across Ukraine in the next year. Butโฆthat doesnโt seem to fit with anything weโve seen.
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russia is masterfully exploiting manpower and ammo shortage by opening a new frontโโ
russia had to open a new front because they couldnโt succeed with a 10-1 arty advantage in the Donbas. โ
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russia has an endless supply of meat and will wage endless war against the west!โโ
russia is sacrificing its long term survival by fucking its demographics irrevocably such that each new war makes it less possible to unfuck.โโ
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Furtherโand this is keyโit assumes a 1:1 *effectiveness* between NATO & russian artillery.
Why donโt we frame it as *russia* needed to overproduce so much because their stuff sucks so badly?
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Both the US and Ukraine seem to think that this โ24 package from the US will stabilize things in general. All of a sudden, russia reinvades Kharkiv Obl, and the commentariat are like โWell now Ukr is fucked.โ
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russia brought in an economist to streamline industry to properly fuck Ukraineโโ
russia desperately brought in an outsider to unfuck centuries-long problems in russiaโs militaryโโ
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Itโs a dark time, sure. But, and hereโs what Iโve been trying to write in a SStack:
Why do we insist on framing things in a way that always implies Ukraine is fucked and russia is strong?
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A few things. The deal Trump struck with 3M was to get them to import 115mil *respirators* from China before they could send 3mil *masks* to Canada. This whole episode was driven by his need to score points domestically and make himself look good.
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Thenโฆwhy didnโt russia do thisโฆearlier?
โOh no, maybe Sumy too (โฆme).โ
As though the simple act of opening a new front just instantly fucks Ukraine.
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Unless, that is, Ukrainian society breaks and decides to give up and join the occupiers. Everything Iโve seen of Ukrainian society suggests theyโd rather die. I donโt see much desire to take out revenge on the West for russiaโs invasion.
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Go for Sumy, too! (mee) Grab a few small towns there, waste thousands of more lives and hundreds more equipment.
russia may have tons of rounds, but they need platforms and tubes to send them!
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Look, the OP is russian opposition, for what itโs worth.
Looking at his feed, it seems like his heart is maybe in the right place.
Butโฆ
His framing is 100% slanted to russian narratives, and his projections are all bleakest-case scenario posing as realism.
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Like, I love the USโI study American philosophy, Iโve been to conferences all over the States, Iโm married to an American, Iโm a huge fan of baseball (go Giants!)โbut this is one thing that Iโve noticed is a big blind spot for so many Americans.
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Does Ukraine have issues? Yes, of course. I donโt need to retread them here.
Is the West committing mistakes? Yes, of course. Also donโt need to retread them. We all know them, because everyoneโs complaining about them constantly.
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What the author seems to predict is an utter and complete collapse, with the remnants of the Ukrainian army fighting valiantly, but ultimately folding.
Okay so hereโs my issue.
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And where was the outrage in Congress? Absent. Where were the speeches, the appeals to the USโs better natures, about fulfilling obligations and being a trustworthy trading partner? Absent.
Many US friends didnโt know about it until months laterโwhen I told them!!
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It also seems like the author assumes that production will remain constant, which seems like an odd assumption.
Or that russiaโs production rate is only sufficient because of their huge stocks, and once those are consumed, overall russia wonโt become less effective.
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I can tell you this: the Canadian health care community was livid, panicked, and mortified. These masks had been bought and paid for. They were ours. But here we were, caught in domestic US shit.
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Imagine how families of Canadian frontline healthcare workers felt. We could only stand by, helplessly, as US domestic drama threatened to, potentially, kill us. C19 had only been in Canada a few weeks and my wife was already coming home with horror stories.
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1. FOCUS ON UKRAINAINS. People in ๐บ๐ฆ are going to be feeling pretty low. Be present for them, but don't be overbearing. They are the ones being attacked. Remember that we are here for them, not for ourselves. Be generous with patience and empathy. 3/
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Anyway, seeing memories from four years ago and with whatโs going on in Congress now had me connect some dots. Thanks for reading.
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Note that longtermism is not a well-respected theory. I could do another ten threads about its problems. But it boils down to this: itโs basically cover for technolibertarians to pillage society in pursuit of their own egos. 22/
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Predictions: Kharkiv falls by end of โ24, Odesa by end of โ25. Best case, by โ26 Ukraine has a meagre partisan force, worst-case, Ukrainians in the russian army are invading Poland out of revenge.
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@KyivIndependent
My greatgrandfather used to have stories set in the Red Scare that started like this. They all ended with โand then they were sent to the gulags and we never saw them again.โ
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My wifeโs service was already basically out of PPE. They had less than 24hโs worth remaining. Letters were going home saying that theyโd still have to go to work even w/o PPE, suggesting sequestering from families, and updating their wills. It was a bleak time.
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But there was nothing, *nothing* anyone could do. Our hapless Premier sputtered something about buckabeer, Trudeau tsktsked at them, but what else could they do? It wasnโt about us. It was about a weak president wanting to look stronger.
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Regardless, two weeks or so in, Trump catches wind that 3M was planning to export three million N95s to Canada for our frontline healthcare workersโmy wifeโs service included. Well, he wonโt stand for this. On 03 April 2020, Trump bans them from exporting the masks.
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2. GET READY FOR BOTS. In the coming days, ๐ท๐บ trolls, bots, and bootlickers are going to be extra gloaty and extra visible. A common ๐ท๐บ tactic is to amplify all victories as a way to demoralize supporters. Don't let them do this. Don't give them an inch. 4/
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FFS, ye sex bots!!! Leave me alone!
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Iโve mentioned before that my wife is a paramedic in a major Ontario city. She was on the front lines. We all were: Whilst everyone else was making sourdough and watching Tiger King, we were making plans abt what weโd do if C19 was brought home, and what order weโd die in.
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Luckily, the system was able to find reusable respirators and my wifeโs service got them first; services with more PPE could wait a little longer. When Trump reversed the ban on 07 Apr, those services were replenished. Some services were on their literal last few masks.
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Assessment: russia has more people, is on war footing and outproducing the West. Just numbers, QED. I mean, the threadโs not long, go check it out if you want.
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Either way, be there for each other, and especially for the Ukrainians you know.
Slava Ukraini. /end
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@terrelljstarr
3y ago, I told one of my students, who was on exchange from Russia, that I was part Ukrainian. He said โah, thatโs Russian.โ I said, โWell, no.โ And he looked me, his prof, straight in the eye and answered, cold as ice, โNot yet.โ [my grandparents fled Rus oppression in the โ20s]
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5. FOCUS ON UKRANIANS (AGAIN). We don't just bonk in the sunshine; we must also bonk in the rain. This is a low point, but this is precisely the time when we're needed the most. Push your representatives for more weaponry. Donate to causes, if you can. 13/
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@DylanBurns1776
@exileoftza
To be fair, since he has no friends, he canโt know what itโs like to lose them.
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7.2 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DEBATE WHILE BEING ACTIVE IN NAFO. Why? Debate requires both sides to be willing to change their views based on the argument. Are you willing to change your views about ๐บ๐ฆ or ๐ท๐บ? No? Then debate is impossible. Just is. End of.
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Anyway, I hope this provides some insight into the workings of Musk. I donโt think he reads this stuff himself or anything. I think heโs heard about it and it speaks to his pre-existing ego. The next time he says something stupid, this might be where itโs coming from. /end
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Things are going to be hard for a while. Remember that your feelings are legitimate. It's okay to be sad. It's okay to be angry. You shouldn't pile shame on top of your already negative emotions. Emotions are good. That said... 2/
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Continue to call out ๐ท๐บ misinformation. Shut or shout down the useful unsmart people. Don't lose heart. There's no use spinning this into something happy--we must be realistic. But there's no use sinking into despair, either. 14/
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The thing is, multiple conflicting narratives can be true. Maybe unit x did have corrupt leadership. Maybe the higher-ups did deny a supply of drones. Maybe reinforcements weren't forthcoming. Assess the speaker for truthfulness, and take their criticisms seriously. 6/
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Allow me to introduce you to an up-and-coming moral theory known as โlongtermismโ. Underneath this benign-sounding name is something quite problematic. Please note these are my assessments/interpretations of longtermism, but based on my 15+ years in the field. 2/
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3. YOU'LL HEAR THINGS. Common in earlier defeats were narratives from the ๐บ๐ฆ frontline that will sound extra gloomy. There will be finger-pointing, there will be complaints, and there will be rather unflattering revelations about ๐บ๐ฆ forces. Some may seem beyond belief at 1st. 5/
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TT is problematic because it assumes unidirectional progress and the universal value of technology. Think Jurassic Park: โyou were so busy trying to show you could you didnโt ask if you should.โ WTF do we need self-driving cars?! (Donโt answer) 5/
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@KyivIndependent
How hilarious would it be if they accidentally shot down their own planes during this training exercise?
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4. KEEP PERSPECTIVE. Look at all that's happened since the fall of Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk (this feels the most similar to right now, IMO). It fell in late June; every major ๐บ๐ฆ counteroffensive happened after that. Or look at Pisky. Or Popasna. 9/
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Further, ๐ท๐บ bootlickers will amplify *anything* that is useful for one of their narratives. How many times will multiple Zbots link the same ๐บ๐ฆ source w/o context as a way to derail conversations? This was common for all the "failed offensives" in the summer. 8/
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That said, keep in mind that no one knows all the moving parts. Soldiers don't have direct access to big-picture data; higher-ups don't have direct access to on-the-ground situations. Problems are always ignored when the going is good. 7/
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Longtermism is based on a few key tenets:
1. Technological triumphalism.
2. Radical utilitarianism.
3. Temporal chauvinism (though a weird kind).
Letโs look at these in turn. 3/
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7.1 This point canโt be stressed enough. I know: I deal with models of rationality, argumentation, cognitive biases, etc. professionally. YOU CANโT REACH THESE PEOPLE. DONโT TRY. Big number 7.2 coming:
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@agripedia
@michaeldweiss
Me: โ๐ท๐บ is going to invade ๐บ๐ฆ.โ
Them: โNah, itโll be fine.โ
M: โDefinitely looking like ๐ท๐บ is going to invade.โ
T: โNah, itโll be fine.โ
-invasion-
T: โ๐ท๐บ is going to take Kyiv!โ
M: โNah, itโll be fine.โ
T: โ๐ท๐บ is going to use nukes!โ
M: โNah, itโll be fine.โ
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@wartranslated
Youโve seen russian trenches: garbage everywhere, food left out, corpses to gnaw onโฆperfect for the raccoon!
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1. Technological triumphalism (TT) is the idea that technology can and must solve all human problems, and that its success is inevitable, given enough time. An extreme example is transhumanism; a less extreme example is the mass push to digitization. 4/
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@OCHA_Ukraine
@UN
If only we had some idea who was doing the shelling! Or was this an incident of naturally-occurring shelling, as the UN seems to think happens in Ukraine?
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That ๐บ๐ฆ was going to pull back was pretty clear about a week ago. They use pretty specific messaging to set the information conditions for withdrawals. The more official channels talk about a settlement being 'completely destroyed', the more likely they're leaving soon. 10/
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@Maks_NAFO_FELLA
Bild? Roepcke? Cโmon, Maks. I have more journalistic credibility than he does. ๐คช
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@RaoulGMI
Also, you know, the holidays, which are a major crunch to many peoplesโ finances.
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@MarkHertling
And it shows a big difference between russia and Ukraine: you just know russia would target these civilians as they flee.
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@wartranslated
A more straightforward explanation is that Musk is a malignant narcissist who, like other malignant narcissists, thinks that he is an expert in all areas because he has had financial success. I see v. little difference between his behaviour and that of other high-profile celebs.
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@eugene_finkel
As a professor who has had a student use my letter of recommendation to apply for a job with a hate group, I can relate to all these feelings. You did your job, and you did it well. Letters are already unpaid labour. You canโt be expected to vet all your students for GRU ties!
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Longtermism is very much in line with this. They assume that, given enough time, technology will solve every problem. Thus, they think that most resources should be distributed towards those who produce it, at the expense of other industries. 6/
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The point being, they knew this was going to happen. Let's hope they were able to accomplish whatever goals they set out to accomplish by holding the line. It looks like they did, but ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ. 12/
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@MarkHertling
@FareedZakaria
I still say CNN should run a half-hour show called โGenerally Speaking,โ where you just lay out your view of whatโs going on militarily, without the prompts of an anchor. Peter Zwack can co-host.
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So, kill 999 to save 1000? All day, every day. But also, distribution of resources. For a radical utilitarian, if thereโs an industry or individual who will generate a lot of happiness, then itโs justified to pillage everyone else, the environment, and so on. 9/
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Further, itโs up to techbros to fix it, because, per longtermism, itโs the technologists who really matter, because itโs technology that will save us from all our problems, eventually. To him, he *must* do thisโitโs his responsibility. Despite being a little dim. 21/
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And *everything* can be brought back to โitโs the survival of the human race!โ I mean, who would argue with that?! But note itโs based on very flimsy arguments and starting assumptions. Itโs three main tenets? All crap. /24
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4.1 Twitter will shadowban you if your follower circle is too constricted and your replies are too provocative. You can *help* Nafo by expanding your interests and engagement on Twitter.
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Finishing editing the in-class version of my ethics of trolling lecture. I want to include a selection of Fellas as examples. Would anyone like to have their pfp included in the lecture? If so, leave a reply!
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