Shayan Talabany
@ShayanTalabany
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Senior Geopolitical Analyst @InstituteGC focused on the Middle East | @LSEIRDept & @SOAS Alum | Formerly @cmec_uk @UKParliament
Joined October 2011
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Pinned Tweet
Our latest piece on Iraq with
@akeel11111
that goes beyond conventional coverage.
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Despite Sadr’s apparent efforts against Iranian influence in Iraq, his chief inspiration is Iran’s founder and most famous supreme leader. Read my latest article for
@ForeignPolicy
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A privilege to have been a small part of this fantastic Newroz event hosted by
@LindsayHoyle_MP
. Lots of challenges for our community, but may we use the opportunities, skills, & diversity we have here in the UK to bring about positive and progressive change this New Year!
@ShayanTalabany
We extend our sincerest appreciation to you for graciously hosting such a splendid event. Your warmth, hospitality, and attention to detail ensured that the evening was a resounding success.
🌟 Newroz Piroz Be! 🎊🎉
#Newroz2024
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The KDP/PUK may agree on Latif Rashid for Iraq Presidency. PUK have put Salih forth officially & KDP Zebari, but Latif serves both sides interests. Current KDP & PUK relations though seemingly ‘divided’ in Baghdad are in fact alot more complex. Kurdish politics is so personal.
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My article today for
@ConHome
: It's in the UK's interest to get the Kurdish regional government and Iraq's national one working together | Conservative Home
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What we need to keep an eye out for when it comes to Turkey 🇹🇷 and the current situation in the Middle East.
🧵🧵🧵
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An updated home office report that condemns & highlights human rights abuses directed towards journalists, activists and political opponents in the KRG
@KRG_DFR
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Very interesting to think about what the deaths of high-profile politicians would mean for other countries in MENA, indeed around the world vs the fact that the death of the Iranian President & other senior officials incl the FM essentially mean more of the same for
#Iran
.
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@RuwaydaMustafah
@masrour_barzani
To be honest Ruwayda, by sharing this & framing your thoughts as a question & a seemingly rhetorical one, you are contributing to the problem of misconstruing the truth, which is that the divide is SO big I don’t think any of the students protesting would meet with the PM.
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This past month has been tragic for ordinary civilians in the Middle East. From Nagorno-Karabakh to current Turkish shelling of SDF in N East Syria & now with events in & around Gaza escalating to an unprecedented level. There are a number of interests that align here 1/
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What a legend
@KaeKurd
!! Had an epic night of laughs watching him perform
@lsqtheatre
yesterday with the whole family, he had my dad rolling on the floor! If you don’t already, follow & support him & the brilliant and hilarious
@eshaanakbar
who opened the night!
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Iraqi politicians are haggling to form a new government & once again women's priorities/participation are not on their agenda. Read this article where
@JemimaShelley
and I remember the Pink & Purple protests 👇🏼
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My new
@cmec_uk
podcast is out looking at the UK & Iran’s relationship, going beyond the JCPOA with
@SanamVakil
of
@CH_MENAP
&
@IoWBobSeely
building on the
@CommonsForeign
Iran report from late last year, give it a listen:
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Sadr has been preparing for this moment for a long time. He never wanted to be part of a majority government, he knew it be bound to fail. But he could at least pretend he TRIED to form a government. His larger goal was always to sit out government until he could hijack popular…
Muqtada Sadr tweets for the first time after his supportes stormed the parliament : this is a great opportunity to make a drastic change to the system the consistiution and the election
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@ShamSahebkran
@amirani87
@Kurdistan
This is a longstanding issue in Kurdistan. With it’s relative stability and security over the years, it has opened itself up to a wide-range of fanatics in a non-conventional sense for the Middle East, e.g. Christian evangelicals. They capitalise on vulnerability so target
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A bit on what Turkish elections mean for the KRG? Overall continuity…
- Turkish-Iraq relations will improve if the opposition wins. Erdogan has himself actively been been trying to engage more with the Iraqis in the last year in line with geopolitical realities in MENA.
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Just voted! The new process is very slow, so make sure you vote early! Make your voice heard.
#Twitterkurds
http://t.co/kOkLLqvNqG
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In light of
#Turkey2023
elections, it is important to remember that Turkish foreign policy is not solely directed by the whims of the face of govt, but strategy and context. This report provides an excellent overview, here are some of the main takeaways:
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My best friend/amateur photojournalist
@SShamii
on the front lines today with our brave
#Peshmerga
http://t.co/qD9qzyr2ms
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An honour to have HE Iraqi Deputy PM & Finance Minister
@AliH_Allawi
speak on a joint
@cmec_uk
@IBBC_London
webinar chaired by
@Offord4Hendon
this afternoon - discussing Iraq’s wider economic outlook and the government’s roadmap for economic reform
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🧵 On Iran/Israel
The attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria will have added to Tehran’s paranoia of a yet quite loosely coordinated multi-front campaign against it and an inevitable Iranian-Israeli confrontation. For Iran there will have been earlier indications…
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The UK has a unique opportunity to become a world leader in using health data to drive research and innovation. Read more below from my brilliant colleague
@lhenryli
#FutureofBritain
@InstituteGC
-w/ Sir Patrick Vallance's leadership & collab w/ Lord Hague's team- publishes "A New National Purpose: Harnessing Data for Health", proposing a National Data Trust to streamline access to data for research and innovation.
#FutureofBritain
🧵
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@lailannmar
@narinistan
A man once spat on me and
@ShamSahebkran
and refused to serve us at a cafe in Turkey when we mentioned we were Kurdish - we were there with a group of over 10 other international students & were singled out for that reason alone.
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You know what sets a dangerous precedent? Not calling out violations of international law...
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So proud of
@PeykBooks
and what they do! Show some love to the brilliant young people behind Peyk & support the hard-work they are putting in to create access to genuine hard copies & fight book piracy that is so very common in MENA.
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Join
@guneyyildiz
@selinnasi
@DanielSleat
and I for this timely Twitter Space on Wednesday where we will discuss the outcome of
#TurkeyElections
. We would love to hear from you whether you are a fellow expert or a close observer of
#Turkeyelections2023
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@ShamSahebkran
@amirani87
@Kurdistan
female victims such as Yazidis & children (of which I was personally a victim of..) via schools such as Classical School of the Medes. However, when the issue came to light the problem was highly politiscised& misjudged. It has really dark, tragic consqeuences for all involved.
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On the anniversary of the Halabja chemical attack, looking back at some pictures I took in 2019/20 of moving artworks by Kurdish artist Osman K. Ahmed as part of his ‘Documenting Darkness’ exhibition in Sulaimani. Works inspired by the tragic Anfal campaign inc. Halabja..
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Just has my first Covid jab! A big thank you to the amazing staff & volunteers today at
@KingstonUni
. Did not feel a thing. As a Type 1 diabetic I was lucky to get mine & encouraging everyone else to do so when invited! 🙏
@DiabetesUK
#type1diabetes
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@ShamSahebkran
@amirani87
@Kurdistan
They do their ‘work’ via a wide range of institutions: primarily NGO’s, butalso schools & universities across the entire KRG (not just in major cities but even in smaller towns such as Koya). Some operate collectively, others individually so theyre integrated into a wide-range..
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It seems some have taken his calls seriously. PUK affiliated forced in Sulaymaniyah have reportedly detained a number of members of the New Generation movement, in some cases arresting them in their homes, as protests are set to take place tomorrow.
The leader of the biggest opposition party in Iraqi Kurdistan is calling for massive anti-KRG demonstrations next week.
I doubt many take his call seriously!
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But Erdogan has v carefully balanced domestic and regional perceptions of the war, while maintaining the long-standing Israel/Turkey relationship. More recently we saw a strategic partnership between Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;
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Turkey has taken advantage of the current situation to accelerate its attacks in the region on Kurdish-led forces in the Syria, increasing its administrative presence in N.E Syria by default & in on PKK targets in N Iraq. Turkey now has over 41 military bases in N.Iraq.
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Observers might see Turkey’s aggressive stance on Israel since Hamas’ attack on October 7 and the breakout of the deadly war in Gaza, and think no regional country has been as harsh in its criticism of Israel as Turkey!
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@RuwaydaMustafah
@masrour_barzani
See how students treated Shaswar… why would they (even if students from a different city) meet with the PM. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and just say it’s curiousity or inquisitiveness. But someone with your platform needs to be careful and cautious.
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Tea in hand, watching the sunset defined by the mountains of my
beautiful Kurdistan
http://t.co/UIgyiysJEt
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Great report on Iraq post-Tishreen: The traditional parties know people are unhappy. Al-Sudani’s currently nicknamed “services government," is fixing roads, hospitals, & creating jobs. They want to stop protests by fixing basic issues but are also cracking down on civil society.
A little later than I would have liked, but between teaching & the war in Gaza, you can understand the delay. Find my second report for
@Clingendaelorg
:
A scramble for legitimacy: Iraq’s political elites since the October 2019 protests
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@ShamSahebkran
@amirani87
@Kurdistan
of institutions and it makes it hard to single them out for vetting. A good place to start however would be to call out those collective groups..
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Though critical of Israel, Erdogan has left plenty of space to maneuver in a pre but also more crucially post-Netanyahu Israel. It is posturing itself as a key potential player to the US too.
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Tragic news out of Erbil as civilians, including children, have been killed in IRGC ballistic missile attacks on January 15. Aside from reflecting on the horrible impact this has on families, the most important question Iraqi Kurdish leaders should be asking themselves -
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We argue that things in Iraq are in a state of flux. There is an inter-Iraqi debate over the future of the nation, political identities, and formal arrangements of power. The ideal vision for Iraq post-2003 did not materialise, but that is not the end of the Iraq story.
The Iraq War 20th Anniversary Isn’t the End of the Story
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#Suliforum
: All the culprits, sitting in a room, looking for the culprit.
http://t.co/B37uvNffzQ
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The UKRI
@GCRF
supports research hubs around the world such as the excellent
@CGDStudies
in conjunction with
@LSEGovernment
. A brilliant example of how UK support around the world can empower those on the ground - who are the real experts on issues in their respective regions.
An article about our interdiciplinary gender studies minor and our work at
@CGDStudies
. Thanks to Kira Walker and Al-Fanar Media for telling this story.
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Important in both symbolic & practical terms. Part of a wider trend. Definitely one to watch!
Exclusive photos from a private source:
The Saudi ambassador to Iraq, Abdulaziz Al-Shammari, visits the Islamic scholar Ishaq Al-Fayad and the Islamic scholar Bashir Al-Najafi, in a special visit to the religious authority in Najaf.
@KSAEmbassyIRAQ
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The other important thing to remember is that the Israeli lobby in the US has been the longest-standing supporter of Turkey. Forget all the niceties & surface-level support for the Kurds, the relationship with Turkey is a historic & strategic one.
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One could argue that Turkey’s efforts to come out in such full support of Hamas and against Israel might therefore have more to do with Ankara’s relationship with Hamas rather than its relationship with Israel.
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Join
@DanielSleat
@guneyyildiz
@selinnasi
and I for an
@InstituteGC
discussion in an hour to discuss the future of 🇹🇷!
- What will the next 5 years look like for
#Turkey
domestically?
- What does
#Erdogan
’s win mean for the rest of the world?
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Happy Newroz to all those celebrating. The last year has been a difficult & dark one for many. But Newroz marks the start of spring and celebrates peace, light, resistance & the renewal of life. I wish everyone a happy and hopeful new year.
نەورۆزتان پیرۆزبێت
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“Turkey is Israel’s oldest friend in the ME & for a good part of their 74-year relationship, has been its closest one in the neighbourhood. Despite occasional spats over the years, Turkey & Israel, both non-Arab states, have been fascinated with one another & found ample…
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Meanwhile, the Turkish government is seeking a greater role in
mediation efforts, hostage negotiations, and humanitarian access re Gaza. Turkey seems eager to assume an international mandate for the future governance of Palestinians when many states are not.
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Amos Hochstein’s comments during
#IISSMD23
shed alot of light on the US’ vision and objectives in and for the ME region. Global priorities have shifted, the focus for the US now is to push and ensure global connectivity, between the East and West. (1/10)
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The release of a jailed US consular staffer is an interesting gesture at this time. But it also follows a pattern of rapprochement with the West since Erdogan’s reelection in May. This is part of a wider and continuous strategy to balance Turkey’s international relations.
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Their bilateral trade was worth $8.9 billion in 2022, up from $1.4 billion in 2002; President Erdogan was also counting on further accelerating Turkish-Israeli cooperation on energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean:
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strategic rationale to keep their relationship alive.” From this recent article by
@asliaydintasbas
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This is in stark comparison to Qatar. Despite Qatar’s role in the ongoing hostage situation, there has been a continuous effort within the Israeli lobby to delegitimise Qatar, and its role, in mediation and in the long-term.
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For my Kurdish friends - here is an example of me simply messaging my (female) friend on instagram saying I miss/want to go to the traditional bazar. This is the reality we live in. It is almost an expectation.
#SarahEverard
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This by default increases a potential Turkish role, as the only other state with close links to Hamas’ political wing, and who may have the soft power credentials as a Muslim state who can speak to both sides.
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Quiet in Slemany bazar lately; I'm sure it bas a lot to do with unpaid wages
#TwitterKurds
#Kurdistan
#KRG
http://t.co/EwkaiK7R6u
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MPs/Peers!! The
@IBBC_London
’s membership makes up almost 30% of Iraq’s GDP. Really demonstrates the significance of UK business & investment in Iraq.
@cmec_uk
/
@IBBC_London
were lucky to have business figures brief members on this. Reach out if you’re not already on our lists!
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Our latest
@InstituteGC
report counters Western perceptions of the Middle East and policymakers understandings of who Middle Easterners are, and what values and aspirations they have, which too often misses the mark. Read it here:
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Either way, a Turkish role in any cross-party management of Gaza post-conflict will counter/balance Israeli and Turkish concerns in a scenario where Arab states, led and/or convened by Saudi Arabia, manage Gaza post-conflict. This is particularly important given the recent…
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KRG governance (KDP & now PUK too) on the same trajectory towards increased authoritarianism coupled with militarism & neo-liberal economics a.k.a the Erdogan/Sisi model as the rest of the region. This comes from a vacuum of viable ideas & thus change.
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The Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) have confirmed that the attacks on water and electrical power stations, have completely cutoff of electricity and water supply in some governorates.
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This is not a ‘Kurdish Spring’ it is a very long winter. But eventually the season has to change. The region is ‘thirsting for ideas’ as my Professor
@FawazGerges
would say, so unless someone has an attractive one (& never underestimate opportunists) that’s the likely trajectory.
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And we’re live! Discussing what centre-right parties can bring to democracy, a discussion hosted by
@InstituteGC
@RyanHensonUK
@AntonSpisak
chaired by
@RichardGrahamUK
with thoughts from
@nickfran2
@AndrewmitchMP
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My colleague
@DanielSleat
has penned this insightful piece on the future of Putin in light of Finnish accession to NATO, and how Western states can work around those realities.
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Sadr sat out for years until he felt he could seize the moment and be the most powerful man in Iraq. Also: he knows his popularity is dwindling/he was only successful in elections because he can mobilise and organise. But history tells us that sometimes that is all you need.
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The background to the events in Gaza & Israel is accelerated Turkish strikes in N.E Syria on Kurdish-held areas since October 5 2023, which have damaged critical infrastructure & resulted in water & electricity disruptions for millions.
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A very timely discussion given Assad’s keeping up of appearances & just days after the anniversary of the uprisings in Syria 👇🏼 don’t miss the opportunity to hear from a superb lineup of speakers on what the future holds for Syria & insights on the future of the entire region..
What hope is there for stability in Syria in the coming years? We're discussing this and more, this Mon 28 March, with Dr. Hamza Al-Kateab, doctor & activist,
@Rim_Turkmani
of
@lseideas
&
@carstenwieland
, former UN consultant. Join us live at 5pm:
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Some Israeli commentators have caught onto some of these dynamics, and highlight the perceived hypocrisy in Turkey’s approach, casting doubt over its role in a fair solution.
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We're left wth Turkey. TURKEY. Did everyone just forget the Kurdish question, & that Serok Apo has been in jail for 14 yrs???
#TwitterKurds
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There has been a lot of talk of the division within the Kurdish parties in Baghdad, but ultimately the leadership, and certain factions within both parties/leadership, converge on many things.
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Will we see regional escalation in light of the bombardment of Gaza following October 7?
Regional powers including rather crucially Iran, do not want a regional escalation that implicates them nor groups like Hezbollah heavily. 1/
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rapproachment between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Turkey’s own rapprochement with Iran, Assad in Syria, Egypt and Gulf states as of recent, such as the UAE.
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Many thanks to
@ChrisOConnorUK
and James Watt for their unique take on the Arab Spring a decade on & UK's policy direction @ the time.. Listen to CMEC's latest podcast chaired by
@CharlotteLeslie
here:
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Sweida shows us what most of those who follow events in the MENA have always known, that the grievances behind the Arab Uprisings in 2011 remain & in many places have intensified. In the long term the region remains open to change. Stability is not a given
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The Hidden Face of Eve was recommended to me as a young woman living in MENA (by none other than my mother) when I began to question unjust narratives, norms, & customs.. her words sang to me. What a game-changer. Rest in power
@NawalElSaadawi1
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Still a very high likelihood that Latif could emerge as ‘compromise’ candidate. Lots of back-hand deals going on behind the scenes, negotiations. KDP have overtly said they would greenlight this if PUK formally announce they are not backing current Pres Barham Salih.
The KDP/PUK may agree on Latif Rashid for Iraq Presidency. PUK have put Salih forth officially & KDP Zebari, but Latif serves both sides interests. Current KDP & PUK relations though seemingly ‘divided’ in Baghdad are in fact alot more complex. Kurdish politics is so personal.
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5) Turkey’s main concern in Syria is the neutralisation of the Syrian Kurds. This is intrinsically tied to Turkey’s domestic politics. A land operation against the Syrian Kurds remains a major risk factor.
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It’s really important to read Iran for what it is & not what one wants it to be. Without dismissing the real challenges the regime is confronting internally & externally, the fact of the matter is various crises & scenarios have long been thought about & brought about in Iran.
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Delighted to have led this important conversation representing
@InstituteGC
at Conservative Conference 2023, discussing the strengthening of the UK’s engagement in the Arabian Peninsula alongside
@LiamFox
@CharlotteLeslie
HE
@fawaz_alkhalifa
&
@AzeemIbrahim
Another
@InstituteGC
event underway here at
#cpc2023
as
@ShayanTalabany
hosts a panel on UK-Gulf relations. Regional transformation is more than just about Saudi, says
@CharlotteLeslie
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On the one hand, increasingly bolder attacks for months now indicating Israel may be preparing for a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon
In Iraq, there is a big Turkish operation expected in coming months, under the pretext of countering the PKK and…
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Sadly Turkey’s deadly strikes in Zakho will not alter Turkish policy in Iraq, but this tragedy matters for current & future Iraq historians. Turkey & other external forces will continue to push their agendas in Iraq, helping further people’s resentment and nationalist sentiment.
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Hamas has been significantly weakened. Iran/Iraqi axis groups and Turkey are currently on track to collide in Iraq and Syria, possibly this summer. Iran’s position in the South Caucuses is similarly v compromised. The Houthis are under attack. Hezbollah is preparing for war.
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@Ruth_Smart
tries to do this, but needs more momentum). improving and collaborating on things like judicial selection and training; Independent observers during election campaigning and elections; encouraging and fostering trading relationships, which should include clauses on transparency
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Different factions exist within the Iranian regime, but ultimately most agree on the importance of preserving the Islamic Republic. It’s existential. There is an Iranian deep state and decision-making is not as simple as many make it out to be.
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I wrote this in an article recently.. the article was completely unrelated to violence against women. But there it is, in EVERYTHING we do. The feeling that @ any singular moment we may be subjected to violence, assault, rape, murder play on our minds constantly.
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04/05 marks the anniversary for the
#DersimMassacre
: 40,000 killed under the vile actions of the Turkish military
http://t.co/l2ZWd57daJ
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Velayet-e-faqeh was very much inspired by the ideas of Grand Ayatollah Baqr al-Sadr (1935-1980), Muqtada’s uncle. Baqr al-Sadr developed a model of clerical activism which was very distinct from the more quietest approach dominant in the Najaf clerical establishment at the time.
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2)
#Turkey
will continue playing an active role in the Russia-Ukraine war. Policymakers should look for ways to leverage this Turkish role, specifically its ability to speak to both parties.
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Positive elections wins for independents in Iraq (in Oct 2021) & Lebanon (this month) come amid a multitude of immediate concerns in both countries. Can progressive voices keep up the momentum that voted them in? Read my latest piece here:
@institutegc
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Everyone has to slow down now. Events in Gaza pressure the Arab states in particular on an unprecedented level, the crucial question everyone is asking is who will take responsibility for leading on a resolution? Who will pay for the large sums needed to reconstruct Gaza? (5/10)
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