The Macro Guy
@SagarSinghSetia
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Deposits fleeing from European banks at the fastest pace ever.
Overnight deposits are down by €350 billion in the last 3 months.
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Oh No!
Somebody realized that 4% is better than 0.01%!
Have the bankers yet realized that increasing deposit rates is the only solution, and sacrificing their bonuses in the process.
A tragic comedy!
What a time to be alive!
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Disastrous Manufacturing PMIs in Europe.
I am saying it for the first time, ECB is doing a mistake by raising rates at this juncture.
EUR unwinding will happen in no time, DXY is heading higher.
Those HF shorts will be burnt to the ground.
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BREAKING: Crypto Market Cap less than $1 Trillion! Investors lost more than $2.3 trillion in last 6 months!
@DoombergT
@concodanomics
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This is super important.
Tight credit will disrupt the flow of money to economy and repercussions will be massive.
Rising defaults, growth plunge, and finally rising unemployment (always the last to occur)
No bueno!
"The University of Michigan asks consumers about credit conditions, and the chart below shows that even before the SVB situation, credit conditions had tightened to levels last seen in 2008:" Apollo's Torsten Slok
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Incredible Chart by Macrobond!
MOVE Index indicates that the bond market volatility is equivalent to VIX> 40.
The bond market is in shambles while equities remain calm.
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Well, warning signs for equities! 😳
Sovereign credit is looking very attractive relative to corporate bonds or equities.
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Higher yields will mean more money out of bank deposits to MMFs.
Also, higher yields mean more unrealized losses on banks HTM books.
The ghost of banking crisis can potentially return.
$KRE
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Sorry Fintwit, no landing and soft landing guys.
Even Powell believes a recession is coming.
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The Liquidity Drain has not started yet; its going to be a carnage when that happens. 💣
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Euro industrial production is plummeting....
First Germany and now Sweden..
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The Debt Ceiling fear is causing chaos in the bond markets.
Significant decoupling between 1M and 3M USTs🧐.
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@zerohedge
When stocks fall you lose in billions, when bonds fall you lose in trillions. God help the pension funds who have 80% of their portfolio in safest assets aka bonds
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People think falling inflation is a good thing LMAO
Inflation is plunging because the growth has likely collapsed.
As always, inflation is a lagging indicator
Choose wisely what you ask for 😏
PS: H2 will be tricky if commodities have bottomed, inflation is a different animal
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@SofiaHCBBG
The Covid Zero policy is really hurting the Chinese growth. Something big is behind this draconian policy. Most probably looks like Xi is using the policy to increase his clout over the CCP.
The property mess and the tech crackdown makes it really tough for the Chinese people
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The only country in Blue is pumping shit loads of liquidity and continues to do enormous policy easing.
This liquidity is going to $GLD and even $BTC. Also pumping tech stocks which are now aafe havens.
You can’t ignore the liquidity.
Chart: JPM
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The BoJ is TRAPPED!
Consumer confidence is inching up, inflation expectations are pretty strong.
93.2% of the people expect inflation to go up in the next one year.
The more they delay normalization of policy, the more JYP depreciates and the more inflation goes up.
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LMAO
Euro Area unemployment rate at lowest ever.
Nominal Wages growing at the highest in the last 15 years.
Core inflation sticky and at more than 5.5%
ECB TRAPPED!
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Banks downfall has not even begun, the real underperformace starts when the yield curve steepens! Chart via Macrobond
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German yields keep on ripping apart as the terminal rate for ECB now stands at a mighty 4%.
Net savings position in Europe will lead to higher income for HH as deposit rates increase, labour market remains tight, and wages keep on increasing.
No bueno!
Higher For Longer!!
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@AlessioUrban
Only boomers know what stagflation is. Millennials have no idea about the co-existence of low growth and high inflation as they have never witnessed high inflation in their lives
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For those who missed it yesterday, Swisszuela is in trouble.
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@SofiaHCBBG
It’s all about the crisis in the property sector. China’s households 50% of the wealth is in the real estate sector. With the sector in a crisis, the negative wealth effect will way hard on the chinese economy, and thus on commodities. Time to be cautious?
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Small businesses are feeling the heat.
The last time the index was this low, it was in 2008 or in 1980.
Higher wage pressures, slowing demand and higher cost of capital is acting as tripple whammy for the lifeline of the world's largest economy
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If you think yields dropping big and Gold rising is bullish equities, Think Again
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History rhymes….
Whenever M2 has fallen off a cliff, inflation once surely cools off.
Will it be this different time?
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Morreee Squeeze coming up
@AlessioUrban
Hedge Funds are still massively short!
Stonks will not fall unless L/S ratio rises
Fintwit as always on the wrong side of the trade.
Lmao 🤡🤡🤡
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Epic property meltdown continues.
The Chinese fiscal Tsunami will be enormous
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3 Things to watch today:
1) $USDJPY
2) $BTC
3) $TLT
Markets have started to pricing in again “higher for longer” and “tighter liquidity” .
The only puzzle now left is stonks 😅
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It's over, folks!
We may be entering into an era where bonds will be one of the best bets over equities for a medium-term horizon.
You don't get negative equity risk premium every day or year.
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@SofiaHCBBG
The events in China are highly inflationary for the global economy. The “chip” issue and the lockdowns have the potential to increase the inflationary pressures all across the spectrum.
More pain ahead! 😬
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For those who missed the context of BoJ's statements, today's inflation data was ugly as the headline reaccelerated and core remains sticky at 4.19%.
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Today’s market action will surely bust some perma bears and hedge funds
The labor market participation rate is going up lmao 😂😂😂
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Only 8 Megacaps are driving the index.
Breadth is poor.
Be cautious, not a good time to jump in.
Zombie companies underperforming S&P 500 by considerable margin ... 1-year return spread has exceeded -20% (in favor of S&P 500)
@DataArbor
@Bloomberg
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The largest drawdown ever in Used Vehicle Index (21% now).
More disinflation in pipeline for used cars.....
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You know what’s the market mood when JPY, Gold and LT Bonds rise together?
You know, right? 👀
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High Yield (HY) defaults jumped to 2.2% in January, highest since September 2021.
As refinance happens at much higher rates, defaults will zoom as per Moody’s. 👀
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4 trillion YEN printed since the YCC band was lifted to 100 bps.
West: Sucking Liquidity
East: Pumping Liquidity
"Game Of Liquidity"
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Totally agree here.
As I said few days back, the only thing to watch is curve steepening from the current -100 bps (2s10s)
I began post SVB fallout, but again the inversion is the highest since 80s.
Short HY and Short QQQ when decisive steepening will be the best trade.
I don't know if this time is different, given the Fed has show they will intervene immediately to try and prevent things from breaking, but when FFR peaks, 10/2s begin to un-invert and steepen and that is where the risk lies and markets decline, 10/2s continue to invert deeper &
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German retail sales have been -ve since the war
Since it's plagued by negative real wages, it's highly unlikely that the retail sales will enter positive territory anytime soon.
Inflation is a double edged sword, they say.
Good for inflating debt, but a tax on consumers.
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If
@prometheusmacro
is able to get this right tmrw, they will be the legends of Fintwit (everyone expecting lower than consensus)
A must follow account for those who love systematic macro framework!
Kudos to you guys!
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@SofiaHCBBG
The drought and heatwave situation in can cause chaos across the world. If China starts to import food from the global markets, it will result in an enormous increase in prices. It will be tragic for vulnerable EMs, which are already reeling under the currency and energy crisis.
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This is the Chart of the Day!
Services was the most resilient part of the economy.
If price pressures are indeed easing (and if it's a trend), then it's good news for bond bulls
But still sceptical about the extent of cuts markets are anticipating
No margin of error.
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When my bro
@AlessioUrban
says we rip, then we rip.
He is the guy with the highest strike rate on Fintwit backed by solid data.
If you are a trader and not following his analysis, then you are losing out big time 🔥🔥🔥
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@AlessioUrban
LMAO
The unemployment rate is at all time low in the Euro Area. Don’t know what markets are smoking, they have no idea how bad recession is needed to bring inflation under control and break wage price spiral.
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The most vulnerable economy to higher rates.
With an over leveraged and overheated property sector, Canada is headed for a hard landing.
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It’s official.
7% inflation, -ve GDP Growth and extremely low Unemployment rate
Lol, this is neither a recession nor stagflation yet.
We need a new name for this type of economic environment 😂
Good Morning from
#Germany
which suffered a winter
#recession
as data revised down. Q1 output shrank 0.3% QoQ following a 0.5% drop between October and December. Its initial estimate, last month, was for stagnation.
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Chinese consumer confidence still "way" below the pre covid levels.
Will be interesting to see the services activity when it moves back to normalized levels.
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Still, a long way to go to pre-pandemic levels, but we are surely heading there.
But I am still puzzled about those rate cuts markets are predicting starting from "JUNE".
Maybe bond markets know something that we don't know, or bond markets are wrong.
Only, time will tell.
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Lmao!
Sentiment remains bearish while the market continues to rip higher.
More hedge funds will go bust! 😂
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Believe me; there is enormous slowdown coming in smartphones and even autos.
Don't know for how long can $AAPL can trade at these prices with the looming demand collapse.
For those interested in absolute numbers, Silicon shipment is now down to levels last seen in Q32018
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73.50%!! 👀
OOPS!
#Turkey
’s official inflation rate hit a 23y high as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s unorthodox strategy for managing the country’s $790bn econ continued to backfire.
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@SofiaHCBBG
The chaotic reopening has been catastrophic for China. However, one can expect herd immunity in next 2 months or by max Q1 max. So, most probably starting from Q2 we would see Chinese demand coming roaring back. We may also see significant easing of supply chain pressures by H1
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It’s absolute carnage in the bond markets.
We are very near to capitulation if not there yet.
BLOODBATH!
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The crypto world was recently rocked by bankruptcies. However, if one had noted the actions of the DeFi lenders, it was clear that these "Ponzis" were bound to crash! Let's dig deep! 🧵 👇
#Crypto
#Celsius
#3AC
#VoyagerDigital
#Vauld
@concodanomics
1/n
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Probably Nothing
Central bank gold purchases hit the highest since 1967.
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Dear O Dear!
What's happening in Sweden?
Retail sales plunge to the lowest since 1990s or since the data started to publish.
No bueno
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The largest drawdown in the used vehicle markets in the US!
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This is getting serious.
Copper getting blasted 4% means that growth worries remain high.
No bueno
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When YCC was raised in Dec from 25 bps to 50 bps, BoJ JGB holdings increased by roughly 8% in two months
It peaked in March and has been stable since then.
Any change may again lead to more JPY printing BUT things might change if UST selling brings back the dollars home.
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SPR is nearly down 50% from its peak of 730 million.
The crude prices are still at $86 /b.
The leverage that the US had is now dead as they failed to refill SPR at $70 /b.
Next year are the US elections.
No bueno
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It's the same story all over Europe.
People are losing their purchasing power as real wages remain massively negative while rich become more richer.
"Inflation is a form of hidden taxation which is almost impossible to measure": John. J beckley
So true...
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The Weekend is Dedicated To Energy Shakeout:
1) Japan defies the G20 and buys oil above the price cap.
2) Saudis decide to cut 500k barrels from May.
As I said earlier, commodities have bottomed out in the short-term
No bueno for inflation and company margins! 😬
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I posted about CRE on Linkedin 11 hours ago, and Alf copied and posted it here 6 hours ago.
How to stop the plagiarism
@PriapusIQ
@AlessioUrban
🤔
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Since the June bottom, crude oil, uranium, sugar and orange juice are up 20-30%.
You can't live in denial anymore.
We are indeed in the second wave and it will get nasty.
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Inflation is dead bros!
Isn’t it?
FRANCE TO RAISE REGULATED ELECTRICITY PRICES 10% IN AUG: ECHOS
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There is a compelling case of a Fed action that would spook the global financial system.
Let us understand the macro dynamics which may lead the Fed to do the inevitable. 🧵<1>
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Europe is in some serious trouble.
The extreme labour shortages will potentially lead to resurgence of inflation as wage pressures remain high.
The inflation mess can be sorted only by decimation of labour market.
Chart: JPM
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Lmao
Fintwit says China doesn't matter.
Chinese reopening will surprise many; it hasn't begun yet.
Let the tourists swarm Europe, and then we will talk in H2.
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Whenever the data comes out of China, we have a ping-pong in markets
Weak data->Commodities fall
More stimulus measures expected->Commodities rally
The truth is that the economic stagnation is real, stimulus won't solve the problem
Japanification of China is here!
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Oh No!
Inflation in H2! 🔥🔥🔥
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“The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent”
True for credit markets today!
Especially the HY!
U.S. high-yield bond spreads are the tightest since May 2022.
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Labour market still remains hot as shortages loom.
The stagflation is upon us in Europe.
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If China continues to surprise upside on the growth front, it will lead to flare-up in inflation again.
Remember the 70s?
Looks like the same story will play out, at least for this year.
H22023 will surprise many on the inflation front.
Get ready for "Higher for longer" 🔥
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Italy also reporting sharp rise in trade surplus. (earlier Germany reported the same)
Weaker imports sign of slowing domestic consumption.
Watchout $EURUSD
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The liquidity bazooka feeding the risk assets and the result is:
BTC Outperforming NASDAQ Massively!
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A rare contraction in BoJ Balance Sheet as the 10Y JGB moved below the YCC ceiling thanks to the banking crisis.
Also, new Governor is at helm. Lot of speculation that the YCC is going to end this month.
Japan is the most underrate risk.
Can't ignore Japan in this ponzi
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4.9% is insane.
Dollar wrecking ball will destroy half of the emerging market economies.
It’s an armageddon scenario for risk assets and EM economies.
DB’s US economists, led by Matt Luzzetti, now see the terminal rate at 4.9% in Q1 2023. Market pricing now has fed funds rates at nearly 4.5% in March next year. Traders are trying to game out the fallout globally, with the dollar ascendant.
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Hedge Funds are still massively short, markets will unlikely fall in this scenario.
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Everybody is asking: Who's Buying?
Well, it's none other than the Central Banks themselves!
(Data upto Q423)
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@AlessioUrban
Lithium prices keep on increasing while Tesla’s margin doesn’t fall. One day those long term contracts will end and then it will be 🔥
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Japan Core CPI at 3.8% and BoJ rates are still -ve; and they are still reluctant to normalize the policy.
Note that 2014 inflation was transitory due to the "VAT Increase"
A comic tragedy is unfolding in Japan.
It will not end well.
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This is very interesting because the growth post pandemic was not as large as in other parts of the developed world.
Reaching to largest annual contraction soon.
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