SaberTrade
@Saber_Trade
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Your AI-Enabled Trading Companion! Find us at the link below! Follow us for sharp trading insights & broad economic analysis💡📈 *Not Financial Advice.
Joined April 2023
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Proven traction & integrations w/ major brokerages, SaberTrade is uniquely positioned to change the future of trading for investors.
Now is your chance to invest in the future of intelligent trading through our crowdfunding campaign on StartEngine:
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Welcome to SaberTrade!
We’re revolutionizing trading by making it easier to execute ideas from financial experts.
For content creators we offer a unique way to monetize your content & engage with your audience.
Follow us for sharp trading insights & broad economic analysis💡
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Who wants to bet that the next crypto bull cycle is AI driven
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Happy Labor Day!
In addition to being a celebration of the American labor movement, Labor Day represents the unofficial end of summer.
The passing of the holiday signifies companies’ final sprint to the end of the year.
Who are you betting on having a strong finish?
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US futures fall early Tuesday after stocks finished Friday mostly up following the jobs report.
Student loan payments are back, and things could get ugly.
Payments are set to start up again in October and could create a “perfect storm” of obstacles for borrowers.
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"I will tell you the secret to getting rich on Wall Street. You try to be greedy when others are fearful. And you try to be fearful when others are greedy."
- Warren Buffett
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Successful trading is hard - there is no such thing as an easy strategy that always works.
It takes conviction and discipline to pry money out of the market.
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If an investment seems too good to be true it probably is.
Adverse selection isn't talked about enough in the trading community.
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In investing know where you have and edge and where you don’t.
On the other side of every trade there is someone who thinks you're wrong.
Move accordingly
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US-China tensions are shaking up global trade.
US reducing reliance on geopolitical rivals & source closer to home.
Mexico (strongest currency this year) is best positioned to seize opportunities being created by the conflict and is now the biggest supplier of goods to the US.
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Volatility in the bond market has caught the attention Wall St, while US stocks falter again.
10-Yr yields near their '07 peaks spurring a big break in the $8T equity rally.
The risk-reward for bonds is starting to look better & better with where US stock valuations are.
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Safe investments are not always as safe as you think. Lots of people buying TLT & other ETFs that track longer duration treasuries
They'll get pretty burned if interest rates keep going up - which is still a very real possibility
Make sure you understand the bets you're taking
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Economists growing more optimistic of soft landing as inflation cools & resilient labor market.
Those hoping Fed will begin reversing rate hikes will likely be disappointed.
Markets predicting rates will remain high well into ‘24 w/ indications of more hikes to come.
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The dollar index is headed for 8th straight week of gains - the longest since ‘05.
USD continues on better growth, especially vs the EU, Japan & China.
This week’s initial jobless claims data shows the US economy just isn’t slowing down yet.
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The US consumer may be about to crack.
According to a Bloomberg survey, 50%+ believe personal consumption - the most important driver of growth — will shrink in Q1 '24, the first quarterly decline since the onset of the pandemic.
Stocks have already slipped from July highs.
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Apple $AAPL held its annual iPhone launch event today.
$AAPL announced the iPhone 15 & 15+, starting at $799 & 15 Pro & Pro Max, starting at $999.
Also a new Apple Watch - 95% titanium & 72 hour battery life & latest AirPods.
Following the event, the stock was down ~2%.
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The S&P 500 edging higher today (0.5%) as the market tries to recover from another weekly decline.
Nasdaq Composite up 0.8%
DJIA up 0.1%
Palo Alto Networks $PANW jumped 14% after earnings results late Friday that beat estimates - biggest 1-day gain in 2 years.
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SaberTrade Browser Extension: Your AI enabled trading companion for more efficient trading via
@producthunt
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Wealthiest hedge fund managers in the US:
Ken Griffin (Citadel): 35B
Jim Simons (RenTech): 28.1B
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater): 19.1B
Dave Tepper (Appaloosa): 18.1B
Steve Cohen (Point72): 17.5B
Carl Icahn (Icahn Enterprises): 17.5B
What mentality do they all have in common?
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Missing out on trading ops because you're busy or drowning in info overload?
Say hello to SaberTrade - Your AI-Enabled Trading Companion!
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Major retailers are slated to report this week, including:
- Macy’s $M
- Nordstrom $JWN
- Kohl’s $KSS
Key AI stock Nvidia $NVDA & technology firm Snowflake $SNOW will report Wednesday after the bell.
Think any will beat expectations and go on a run?
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Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway hit a record high off strong 2Q report that showed a rebound in insurance ops & MASSIVE cash of ~$150B - earning a hefty return due to interest rates.
If you don't have ~$555k laying around for $BRK.A consider $BRK.B:
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$HAL reported mixed results while oil services giant $BKR slightly beat.
Regional bank $USB barely exceeded forecasts, while $GS missed on earnings.
Watch for $TSLA & $NFLX earnings after the close.
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TIPS 5 year inflation break-even have finally fallen below the 2% inflation target.
Market signals expectation that long term inflation is likely under control.
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Hiring ex- $TWTR employees sure is cheaper than making a $10Bn Metaverse
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$JPM reported strong 2Q results, even excl. the impact of its First Republic acquisition, which boosted EPS by $0.38.
Revenue up 34% as they took advantage of higher rates & loan growth.
Analysts believe $JPM is a Strong Buy, trade here if you agree.
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Just Launched: SaberTrade Browser Plugin - Your AI-Enabled Trading Companion!
SaberTrade was built with traders and investors in mind. Our goal is to enable anyone to trade like a savvy investor, saving you time and boosting your trading efficiency.
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We are excited to announce that our SaberTrade Browser Plugin was a Top 5 product in the world on ProductHunt yesterday!
Join us as we revolutionize the way people consume financial content and execute trades.
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Interesting survey from Schwab $SCHW from 3/23: Americans responded that $2.2mm qualifies as wealthy, down from '20 peak of $2.6mm, but up from $1.9mm in '21.
Yet 48% of those surveyed "felt" wealthy... w/ an avg net worth of $560k – all figures out of reach for most Americans.
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“Cash combined with courage in a time of crisis is priceless.”
- Warren Buffett
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FOMC goes ahead with rate-pause as expected with this meeting, but indicates 2 more rate rises this year with updated dot-plots.
A stronger than expected economy has led the FED to stick to a path of higher rates.
$SPY down 50bps from before the meeting.
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“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
- Warren Buffet
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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Risk management is the key to successful trading.
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Maybe the IPO market is back?
SoftBank raised $4.9B for Arm in the year’s biggest IPO
Shares of the chip designer start trading today
Arm’s value is ~$55B & the IPO was oversubscribed more than 10x which could help push the stock higher
Investor demand far exceeding supply
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The Dow posted its best day since August, jumping nearly 1% or ~331 pts.
S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.8%.
$ARM stock jumped 25% in it's IPO, potentially giving new life to a softer than usual IPO market.
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August wholesale inflation rose 0.7% - ~2x the 0.4% expectation.
It's the biggest monthly gain since June '22.
Excluding food & energy, core PPI rose 0.2% - in line with expectations.
Retail sales rose 0.6%, well above the 0.1% estimate.
Dow $DJI up ~200 points on the data.
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The wage floor for US workers is rising & recently hit a new record high, according to a Fed Reserve Bank of NY survey.
The lowest pay that workers would accept to take a new job increased to ~$79k in July, up from about ~$73k a year earlier & ~$69k in July '21.
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"Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets... any sound investment will eventually pay off."
- Carlos Slim Helu (~$102B Net Worth)
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“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” 🪁⚡️
- Benjamin Franklin
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“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.'”
- Sir John Templeton, The Devil’s Financial Dictionary
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“Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time."
- Jeff Bezos ($153B Net Worth)
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Federal student loan payments are to resume Sept. 1 & they’re going to have a significant impact on borrower spending.
56% say they will be forced to choose between making loan payment or covering necessities like rent & groceries, according to a survey from Credit Karma.
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Bear economy meets bull market, courtesy of AI.
The rally, driven largely by tech giants like $AAPL and chip players like $NVDA, hinges not on inevitable long-term AI success, but on potentially choppy short-to-mid-term effects
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US Steel $X rejected a takeover bid from rival Cleveland-Cliffs.
Cliffs submitted the proposal privately on July 28 & publicly with its cash & share bid on Sunday, valuing US Steel at about $7.25B - a 43% premium to Friday’s closing price.
$X is trading up over 25% pre-market.
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Home prices in the US are on the rise again, perhaps slowing the Fed's fight against inflation.
Demand for homes around the country continues to outpace supply, despite a rapid rise in borrowing costs spurred by rate hikes.
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US consumers are spending again.
Retail sales rose 0.7% MoM beating expectations & pointing to continued resilience, despite higher inflation & interest rates.
Inflation is showing signs of cooling but isn’t at the Fed target yet.
The Fed next meets to set rates in September.
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For most w/ federal student loans, the US Supreme Court thwarted dreams of debt relief.
Now, some are starting to have debts wiped away.
The Biden admin began forgiving $39B in student debt for 800k+ borrowers in income tied payment plans & had made monthly payments 20+ years.
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The market will be watching as $APPL & $AMZN report after the close.
The two are big enough to cause big shifts in the market.
81% of companies have beat 3Q expectations so far.
How do you think Apple & Amazon will fair?
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Economists in 2022 were claiming that to get inflation down we needed 6% unemployment.
Now inflation has come down 50% from the highs of 8% and unemployment is still 3.5% . 🤡
Seems like this inflation cycle is mostly driven by 1) war created supply issues and 2) profits
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Big Short investor Michael Burry is betting against the S&P 500 & Nasdaq-100 again.
He swapped Chinese e-comm giant $BABA & struggling banking stocks for positions in shipping, mining & energy companies.
You can trade some of his new positions here:
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported new holdings in homebuilders D.R. Horton, NVR & Lennar - all up 30%+ YTD.
US developers benefitting from resilient demand for new homes driven buy severe shortage of supply in existing homes.
Trade Here:
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Don't expect mortgage rates to decline anytime soon.
With rates near 7%, homeowners are not likely to leave rates secured at record low borrowing costs (92% of US rates below 6%).
The demand is there, but with tight inventory for buyers the home-price bubble will continue.
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“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”
- Warren Buffett
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The yield on 10 year TIPS rose to its highest level since 2009 today.
Investors are expecting that the Fed will need to hold rates higher for longer to keep inflation in check.
Don’t expect borrowing costs to come down anytime soon.
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Alphabet reports better-than-expected quarterly results driven by growth in cloud.
Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat leaving role to become president and chief investment officer.
$GOOGL shares trading up over 6% after-hours.
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Week in review:
Bond market volatility, Apple's weak week, strong global economic data.
China gov to boost recovery, EU sees core inflation peak.
US job growth slows, wages hold, Fed could be close to halting hikes.
Fitch downgrades US debt over deficits, political turmoil.
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Key inflation numbers coming out this week: CPI Tuesday and PPI Wednesday.
Time to put on those interest rate bets!
Very excited to see some volatility 📈
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More hikes may be needed by the Fed to to get inflation down to its 2% target even as data shows slowing inflation, according to governor Michelle Bowman.
Two other Fed officials said jobs data indicated better labor market balance & time to think about how long to hold rates.
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FOMC is expected to hike interest rates to the highest level in 22 years today, to the 5.25% to 5.5% range.
This marks the 11th increase since early 2022.
It will release the decision at 2 pm ET today.
Chair Jerome Powell will hold a news conference 30 minutes later.
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The SaberTrade Browser Extension was awarded the
#1
FinTech Product of the Month by
@ProductHunt
.
Hundreds of savvy investors are already using it every day to upgrade their research & trading game.
Download for FREE now:
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With the resumption of student loan repayments in October, the pressure on households is likely to dampen inflation.
With the prospect of lower inflation, the probability of another rate pause is increased and provides support for the hypothesis of rate drops in 2024.
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$AAPL market cap below historic $3T as outlook for Q4 sparked worries over shrinking demand for phone, computers & tablets industrywide.
This marks the 3rd straight Q of declining sales - expected to continue this period & would be longest streak of declines in two decades.
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After equity pullback last wk, markets will be looking for softer inflation (due Wed) to keep the Fed hawks at bay.
Banks kick off earnings Fri - some are hoping 2Q marks the bottom. $SPX estim. 2Q earnings decline is 7.2%, which would be the biggest drop since a 31.6% drop in
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“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
- George Soros
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Strategists at Citi $C said that an “orderly” pullback for US stocks reduced the risk of a major selloff & instead points toward more gains for the S&P 500.
Following Fitch, Moody's cut credit ratings on 10 mid & small lenders & left the door open to downgrade larger ones too.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress that there's a "long way to go to get inflation down to 2%."
Despite holding rates steady last week, interest rates need to move higher, albeit at a more moderate pace, to curb growth & price pressures.
US Stocks fell on the news.
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Just in: WSJ is reporting that that the SEC is rejecting Spot Bitcoin ETF's because the filings are inadequate.
Regulator tells Nasdaq, Cboe that recent filings from BlackRock, Fidelity & others aren’t clear and comprehensive.
$BTC price is falling rapidly on the news.
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Housing starts are up 22% MoM from April to May from 1.34M to 1.63M, crushing the expected 1.4M.
Builders are taking advantage of the high demand for residential housing due to homeowners holding onto existing supply with low mortgage rates.
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Traders that try to time broad macro cycles in the equity markets are misguided.
Focus on your personal area of expertise. Find a niche that you understand better than everyone else and trade around that edge.
That’s how you really start printing money for yourself 📈
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All three major indexes are headed for declines again on Thursday after $SPX fell for the 3rd consecutive day for the first time since May 4.
Strategists at $BofA believe that as long as the index doesn't fall too far below $4,200, dips would set up bullish breakout patterns.
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The Fed will release June Minutes today giving investors some insight into interest rate pauses or hikes in 2H '23.
Any further tightening is likely to decouple global monetary policy as the world takes different paths - China is loosening, India & South Africa holding for now.
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Stocks rose Monday to kick off the last trading week of August, boosted by gains in tech.
DJIA up 0.8%
S&P 500 up 0.7%
Nasdaq Composite up 1%
$TSLA $META $MSFT $GOOGL $AAPL all higher
How do you think the last trading week of the month will play out?
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Nasdaq is having an eventful week - the index rallied to a new 52-wk high, the highest level since April '22.
The Nasdaq 100's special rebalance, happened only twice in history, is being reshuffled to become less tech-heavy.
6 tech stocks account for nearly 50% total weight.
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A few notes to round out the week:
1. Oil had its worst week since the beginning of May due to fear of higher rates.
2. All the talk of a new bull market to start the week resulted in US stocks having their worst week since March.
3. Bitcoin hit its highest price in a year.
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Households with six figure incomes are 15% MoM more likely to shop at dollar stores like $DG.
This trend is consistent with data from $COST showing their members are going for cheaper purchases and substitutes.
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💡SaberTrade Ideas: Profiting on Agricultural Volatility
Content from our recent inclusion in the
@BullishRippers
newsletter.
[Thread]
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Stock futures continue to fall after the selloff spurred by jobs data & Fitch downgrade.
FWIW - Warren Buffet is not concerned about the downgrade.
A busy earnings week carries on as PayPal & Qualcomm dropped 9% on disappointing guidance.
Most companies have beat expectations
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Airbnb revenue per listing has dropped 50% YoY in several major cities like Phoenix, AZ and Austin, TX. Other cities like Nashville see 40% YoY drop in revenues.
With the massive flood of people who rushed to buy properties to AirBnB over the past few years, things look dicey.
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The Nasdaq and S&P battled back a bit today, ending 3-day losing streaks thanks, in part, to investors picking up tech stocks that had been down this week.
The gain was still not enough to recoup losses for the week and the S&P appears on pace to break a 5-week win streak.
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“There is no single market secret to discover, no single correct way to trade the markets.
Those seeking the one true answer to the markets haven’t even gotten as far as asking the right question, let alone getting the right answer.”
Jack Schwager – Author of Market Wizards
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Traders should expect extra volatility today as a $2.4T options expiry event coincides with the Nasdaq 100 special rebalancing.
Positions will either roll over & new ones opened, while Nasdaq may see passive investors bring their portfolios in line with the index before Monday
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Commercial real estate is taking a massive hit as ~13% of US employees WFH / 28% hybrid.
Office vacancies in NYC have reached peak levels at 22.7% - with some of the largest and most sophisticated landlords, $BX & RXR, defaulting on loans backing office.
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The best traders never stop looking for edge. In daily life they think in terms of bids and offers, adverse selection, arbitrage, supply/demand dynamics, and above all rigorous statistics.
It’s a mindset that permeates your whole life and shapes your worldview.
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Fitch downgraded the US's top tier credit grade 1 level citing ballooning fiscal deficits & an “erosion of governance” leading to debt limit clashes over the last 20 years.
S&P Global did this ~10 yrs ago & signs of resilience in the largest economy make the timing peculiar.
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A few notes from this mornings economic data:
- US Consumer confidence at its highest level since Jan '22.
- Overall business investment rising but at a slower clip.
- Durable goods orders stronger than forecast.
- New-home sales up 12.2% to the highest level since Feb '22.
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Investors are still betting on the great tech rally of '23.
77% of 514 in a Bloomberg survey said they plan to incr. exposure to tech stocks or flat next 6 mos.
It's not about AI. ~50% won't pay for AI tools & majority of firms not planning to use them for trading or investing.
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SaberTrade Ideas: FTC Vs. Microsoft (Thread)
The FTC had a bad week – losing what may turn out to be a precedent setting case concerning $MSFT's acquisition of $ATVI.
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The S&P 500 has far exceeded estimates by Wall Street.
Piper Sandler’s Kantrowitz, the most bearish in a Bloomberg poll in Jan lifted his initial target of 3,225 to between 3,600 & 3,800.
The strong start to the year has made it difficult to justify not increasing the target.
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A new survey by the CFA Institute found that GenZ thinks finance is the best industry for career prospects.
It's about the money and stability. The top career fear - low pay.
The same survey in 2021, finance ranked 5th. Rising cost of living is a "top societal concern."
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Just 7 companies now make up 26% of $SPX total value, up from 20% at the start of the year.
The companies - $AAPL $MSFT $AMZN $NVDA $TSLA $GOOGL $META - are valued at more than $11 trillion. Without their gains, broader market growth would have been far more muted.
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A recent study from ResumeBuilder found that 91% of companies with open positions are looking for talent with ChatGPT experience.
AI won't replace human labor as much a human using AI will.
Marketing, Engineers, Copywriters, Teachers, Prod. Managers & Recruiters most at risk
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More positive news in the labor market.
Employment openings & layoffs both edged down. Quits fell & manufacturing in contraction for the 9th straight month.
All of this points to a stable & resilient labor market despite Fed hikes aimed at slowing the economy & inflation.
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