Dan Weston
@SAAdvantage
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Cricket Consultant, Strategist & Recruitment Specialist. Business enquiries: sportsanalyticsadvantage @gmail .com
England, United Kingdom
Joined March 2017
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Having moved on from Kent Cricket towards the end of May, I’m now ready to consider the next projects in my career.
My main focus will be the right roles in the following fields, although I’ll certainly consider any other interesting options as well.
*Head of Recruitment
*Head
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With just one win and four defeats in their opening five matches, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) currently stand second-bottom of the IPL table.
As per Twitter's request from yesterday, here is a MEGA THREAD discussing their issues and what can be done to resolve them.
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One of the most common questions I’ve been asked on social media lately is who I would retain if I was in charge of each team.
So here's a [MEGA THREAD] where I answer those questions...
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Not seeing much on my timeline tonight about the IPL being bad for English Test batters…
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Prime example of why personal milestones are overvalued in cricket.
Feel so sorry for Sarfaraz.
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We can talk all day about whether Virat Kohli’s century was good or not but doing so takes focus away from the critical discussion.
RCB are in this mess due to recruitment & selection.
56 Cr on 5 batters/batting ARs, barely anything on spinners, & a group of uninspiring pacers.
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This deal makes no sense for RCB.
1) RCB would likely get Green cheaper at auction
2) More importantly RCB have given MI budget to spend at auction which they wouldn’t have otherwise had.
They should be making life as difficult as possible for their major rivals!
🚨 🚨
Another big money move involving Mumbai Indians is confirmed!!
INR 17.5 crore added to MI's purse as Cameron Green joins RCB in an all cash deal
#IPL2024
#IPLtrade
@vijaymirror
has more 👇 👇
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A few years back I reached out to them several times including writing a full report on their squad (took a couple of days to write, would be even better now) & how to move forward with their retentions/recruitment.
Head coach didn’t even reply to my email containing the report.
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If an IPL team plays 4 overseas batters, it’s entirely reasonable to question their roster construction.
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Richard Gleeson’s T20 numbers come up on the screen.
Commentator ‘very good first class numbers, Swanny’.
He hasn’t played first class cricket for almost 4 years - is it too much to ask for a basic level of research?
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Thinking about this match, it should really be the turning point of KL Rahul’s career. Today, he has been educated that strike rates (and boundaries) certainly aren’t over rated.
While watching Head & Abhishek he should be thinking about how to evolve his game to that level - he
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So - DC buy a 19 year old keeper for 7.8 Cr one year before a mega auction and then when they play him as an impact sub he bats number 8.
This just doesn't make any sense. Just another example of confused recruitment & selection processes.
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Can’t help thinking that RCB would be better with Lomror in for Rawat (DK keeps) and Bhandage taking the impact sub role from Lomror.
Jacks surely has to play too. Would walk into most teams other XIs.
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About to fly home from Bangalore, what an incredible experience
@IPL
auction - but most of all I was overwhelmed with everyone
@PunjabKingsIPL
, so welcoming & I felt like I was among family from day one.
A truly amazing group of people.
(1/n)
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As many people have requested over the last couple of days, it's time for my next MEGA THREAD looking at the issues facing Delhi Capitals.
Here we go...
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Commentators are usually very diplomatic about players performances, but the fact that a player getting out with attacking intent is described as ‘unacceptable’, as opposed to 3(10) type match losing innings, illustrates how far understanding T20 cricket has to go.
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No matter what the result today…
If you have 100 Cr to build a cricket squad with 8 overseas players in it, and you only play 2 of them, questions need to be asked of your recruitment.
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Players who are genuinely world class in all-formats are so rare.
Jasprit Bumrah surely leads the way for pacers in this respect.
A simply phenomenal bowler.
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Still amazed by how many teams in T20 don’t automatically run on the last ball
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In my view, Rajasthan’s recruitment of Padikkal is the perfect example of signing a player without a clear plan of how to use them.
It’s not fair on a player to be recruited & play a totally different role. He’s a talented player (much better than he’s shown) but needs to open.
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Chasing 213, if a player scores 18(20) then their team-mates (plus extras) needs to strike at 195 as a collective.
Strike rates do matter!
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In my view, when England choose not to pick a spinner in the squad who in Division One in 2023 took 49 wickets at 20 with the ball & scored 840 runs at 40 with the bat, instead picking unproven spinners based on a hunch, they lose the right to complain about the domestic system.
There have been moments in this game when it has felt unfair to ask these young spinners to take on such huge responsibility. It has looked unfair to ask them to carry the can for a domestic system that doesn't work | ✍
@GeorgeDobell1
#INDvENG
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When he retires, I really hope Ashwin will run strategy for T20 teams.
I think he could take thinking about the format to a new level - thinking which is so rare to see among players.
“Wicket taking is overrated in T20”
Very often when I have said this, people tend to slide into mock it.
“In T 20 wickets happen and how!! is totally dependant on the entry point of the bowler and of course the ability to execute apt skills in that over or ball like Bumrah did
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The criticism by commentators when a batter skies a shot & gets caught is the greatest example of aftertiming that there can be.
RR need 97 off 54 yet the commentator is saying that they can afford a few dot balls - if that happens the required RR is 12.
Batters can get out by
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Across 2021-2023, SRH won 13/42 matches. Worse than that, I didn't feel that they had any identity or clear style of play whatsoever.
This 2024 SRH team is different. Their high intent style & non negotiable identity means this year they've turned into a team that I would pay
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Genuinely confused about GT trading Hardik to MI.
Unless there’s something not yet announced, there is no upside.
If he wants to go to MI, fine, just release him & make them severely overpay in the mini auction which would certainly happen in that scenario.
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MEGA THREAD
With the IPL Auction taking place a week today (19th December), I thought now would be a good time to discuss the key players likely to be in demand & which teams potentially will show interest in them.
For clarity with pricing, 100 lakh = 1 Crore = around £100,000.
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In my view, if an IPL team saved 2-3 Crore from their auction budget and invested that in a really good analytics department their expected points per game increase would be far greater than what the 24th and 25th member of their squad will yield.
Thoughts?
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If you’re a journalist at the IPL match today and you get to ask Shikhar Dhawan a question, and you don’t ask about his usage of Harpreet Brar this season then you aren’t doing your job properly.
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HUGE fan of this - very impressive from David Wiese
Came across this clip from yesterday's game.
You don't need data experts when you have King Weise cracking their game plan in less than 30 seconds. Top contributor on and off the field 🙇🙇🙇
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Looks like PBKS bought the right Shashank Singh after all!
Crucial boundaries on display 👀
Shashank Singh keeping the hopes alive 🙌
Watch the match LIVE on
@StarSportsIndia
and
@JioCinema
💻📱
#TATAIPL
|
#GTvPBKS
|
@PunjabKingsIPL
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A reminder that it’s now 15 days & counting that DC have failed to bring in another overseas pace bowler after Lungi Ngidi’s injury withdrawal.
🚨 Matt Henry has replaced David Willey for Lucknow Supergiants in IPL 2024. 🚨
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CSK take Mitchell for a genuinely speechless 14 Crore.
Recency bias from the 50 over World Cup in a DIFFERENT FORMAT in full effect.
This is what happens when a player is identified as a 'must have'.
Probably the most overpriced bidding I can remember in an IPL Auction.
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Arshdeep Singh shows his quality yet again - best death bowler in the IPL?
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No matter what happens in this match, I absolutely love watching Yashashvi Jaiswal bat. One of the few batters worldwide who I’d buy a ticket to watch in any format.
Has the potential to be a 3 format superstar, which happens pretty much never for batters.
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SKY is one truly incredible T20 batter - no matter what the match situation, he comes in and plays positively.
Teaching an expected value lesson to those who nurdle it around after the loss of a couple of quick wickets.
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I always say to trust the process but I’m not sure my heart will be able to cope with many more matches like that!
#PBKSvRCB
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Not necessarily related to Ravindra but any IPL team who spends fortunes on stars of a 50 over World Cup is setting themselves up for potential disappointment.
The required skill sets are just so different, but the irony is that I fully expect this overpaying to happen.
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Gujarat Titans lose a close game after being on the right side of plenty of narrow matches in the last couple of years.
They’ve constantly outperformed numerous underlying metrics in this time - could it now be the start of some mean reversion?
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So much chat about how the balance between bat & ball is unfair in the IPL & it’s hard to argue - impact sub, flat pitches, higher intent from many domestic players are all factors.
But I think the biggest issue is the number of mediocre bowlers now regularly playing - many
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Sai Kishore on the bench is a continued waste of a big talent.
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Gutted for all of the amazing Punjab Kings fans who have got in touch with me over the last couple of years.
You guys deserve success & a team regularly pushing for qualifying and titles.
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Genuinely amazed that IPL teams haven’t worked out yet that BBL bowlers generally perform considerably worse in overseas leagues than in the BBL.
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In my view, there is no better T20 batter than Suryakumar Yadav right now - this year he is far in excess of the ideal (but rare) stability/aggression combo of 20+ balls per dismissal & 20%+ boundary percentage.
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Lying in a hospital bed for over two months in the winter, not knowing if or how I would recover from both endocarditis and major heart surgery, it’s easy to spend a lot of spare time daydreaming, staring at the ceiling. One of the things I wondered about a lot was whether I’d
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A team of players who should play more in the IPL:-
Will Jacks
Vishnu Vinod (wk)
Atharva Taide
Nehal Wadhera
Rovman Powell
Shahrukh Khan
Lalit Yadav
Shardul Thakur
Sai Kishore
Nathan Ellis
Fazalhaq Farooqi
Impact
Manoj Bhandage
Umran Malik
Suyash Sharma
V Kaverappa
A Manohar
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It's time to talk about the analytics industry in cricket.
This is the one thing that aspiring cricket analysts (and team owners) need to read!
[MEGA THREAD]
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Not sure about that decision on Samson at all.
Felt like the TV umpire was very quick to make his decision, there was a step by Hope’s right foot that might not have made the boundary move but could easily have touched it, needed a different angle.
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India’s opponents will be delighted if they pick this squad.
Ignore the names. Look at the structure.
* Batting group lacks balance
* No batters offer a bowling option
* No pace bowling all rounder
* No bowlers offer competent hitting
* Pace bowling except for Bumrah (& maybe
Sanjay Manjrekar picks India's squad for the 2024 T20 World Cup. (Star Sports).
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8 games into this IPL, I can’t help thinking that the expansion to 10 teams has really exposed the lack of depth in the domestic spinner market, and both the domestic & overseas pacer market in particular.
These are key recruitment roles teams need to address moving forward.
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After the highest scoring IPL innings of all time from SRH yesterday, it's only right to have a deep dive into how these increased boundary-hitting and strike rates have evolved.
So, here's a [MEGA THREAD] on the impact sub & other factors...
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40 boundaries in the KKR innings.
That's one in every three balls. Superb hitting.
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It’s utterly absurd that Azam Khan doesn’t play for Pakistan.
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I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again.
A player should only be allowed to put their name in an auction or draft lists if they can play the entire tournament.
Once a commitment made please honour it. Not fair to pull out during play offs. Few teams might miss out on a well deserved opportunity to win a tournament that goes more than 2 months with the absence of one key player.
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CSK have won over 70% of their matches at the Chepauk.
They continue to recruit well for the conditions at their home venue & have made it a fortress.
Anything a team can do which gives them a 70% chance of winning a T20 match in a level budget league is huge.
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107 Powerplay for SRH - now that's a team I would happily pay to watch.
Playing the format in an ultra positive way, with high intent & regardless of what happens in this tournament, creating a blueprint about what is achievable for other teams.
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Just wanted to wish the best to all the supporters of
@PunjabKingsIPL
ahead of their opening match today.
It’s been a pleasure chatting with you all over the last couple of years & you really deserve a successful season ❤️
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A lot of people on here have asked about my health recently after my heart surgery & endocarditis so I thought I’d post a quick update.
Last week I saw my Cardiac Professor who was delighted with my recovery. My sternum has healed well & there were no residual problems shown on
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No Nathan Ellis plus only one of Arshdeep & Kaverappa as impact subs.
Even in an end of season match, I can’t see how this makes any sense.
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62 nights in hospital with infective endocarditis & eventual open heart surgery…
But I’m finally home & feeling stronger every day!
Thanks so much for all your support on here, it really does mean a lot ❤️
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Will Smeed
Who has been the most impressive youngster in the PSL so far?
Abdullah Shafique
Qasim Akram
Muhammad Haris
Mohammed Umar
Zeeshan Zameer
Zaman Khan
#PSL7
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This really is highly uninspiring bowling from RCB.
56 Cr spent on 5 batters or batting all-rounders.
Next to nothing spent on spinners.
As with most issues for teams, their problems can be translated back to their recruitment.
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Can any of my Indian followers tell me if there is media critique of IPL teams recruitment, selection & strategy that is anything like the level that it occurs in the English Premier League in football?
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Someone might want to educate him on the fact that around 85% of teams with the highest boundary % win a T20 match…
Former Pakistan cricketer Shoaib Mohammad has questioned the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB)’s selection policy ahead of the upcoming T20 World Cup.
Read more:
#T20WorldCup
@saleemkhaliq
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If anything even close to this happens, it’s a fantastic illustration of how inefficient the T20 recruitment market is…
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It's been ages since I did a mega-thread, so here goes - a deep dive into some T20 World Cup Group Stage data.
This could be a long one!
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In 2 years my wife has gone from no interest in cricket to being an IPL/Hundred/T20 obsessive!
I asked for her favourite players:
Spinner: Rashid Khan
Pacer: Arshdeep Singh
Batter: Will Smeed (‘he just goes for it!’)
All-Rounder: Moeen Ali
Honourable mention: Rakheem Cornwall
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It's time for a look at the bowling attacks fielded by DC and RCB in their opening matches of the IPL, and putting their squad construction under the microscope.
[MEGA THREAD]
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Form is temporary, class is permanent
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If this doesn’t tell young aspiring T20 players to work non stop on their hitting & high intent mentality, nothing will.
The way the world of franchise cricket works. Harry Brook gets 13.25 while Root has no buyers
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With 31 balls left of their innings, why on earth are KKR preparing Manish Pandey to bat as an impact sub when they have Andre Russell in the dugout?
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One of the greatest things about the IPL is when a new player bursts onto the scene in a big way.
Whether they’re a batter smashing boundaries, a spinner bamboozling the opposition or in this case, ultra express pace.
Mayank Yadav, take a bow.
Can’t wait to see more of him.
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I don’t agree with this at all.
1) It is so difficult to be good at all 3 formats, given the obviously different skillsets required to be successful in each.
2) Workload for players will be ridiculously high playing 3 international formats & the IPL.
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I’d have liked a squad to show that India have learned the lessons from their elimination.
Not sure they have.
JUST IN: Rohit Sharma named captain for the
#INDvNZ
series, with KL Rahul his deputy 🇮🇳
Kohli, Bumrah, Shami and Jadeja have been rested.
India's 16-member squad 👉
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Anyone who predicted that RR would spend over 50% of their budget on Rovman Powell as the first lot of the auction needs to buy a lottery ticket.
The IPL Auction never ceases to shock.
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So happy to see Sarfaraz Khan's 50 at quicker than a run a ball.
He kept on banging the door down with his performances in domestic cricket (which continues to be an under-valued predictor of success at a higher level).
A true inspiration.
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Some personal news - it's time to start a new project in county cricket & I'm moving on from
@leicsccc
.
However I'm delighted to be joining
@KentCricket
as Senior Data Analyst - I can't wait to start working with Paul Downton,
@mattwalker275
,
@sambillings
& everyone at the club!
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Given the absentees for India, this is a huge statement victory.
‘Bazball’ has its extreme mean-reversion moment.
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When your opposition need 17 from 8, I really think the bouncer is a bad option unless there is very specific set of circumstances (the bowler is amazing at them or the batter is very weak at them).
It’s just too volatile an option in many cases.
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Whatever the outcome of the game was - not taking the single & retaining the strike with 2 balls left afterwards can only be a positive expected strategy in rare/specific circumstances (eg Russell & tail ender batting).
Curran (13.7% boundaries in this years IPL & 2.7% sixes)
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Usually I have a lot of time for Simon Doull’s commentary but this a very bad take from him, in my view.
You shouldn’t run a team solely via data, and you shouldn’t run it via ‘playing experience’ either.
Both things in conjunction can be very powerful, and create the checks &
Very condescending tone from Simon Doull lol, former cricketers trying to gate keep their sport with the this guys hasn’t played any cricket dig. The ending is even more annoying goes onto to say, we have the best data people but they run a show not the team lol. Very much know
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It's going to take something for there to be a bigger bargain today than Wanindu Hasaranga getting sold for his 1.5 Cr base price.
SRH needed him and they got him. For far cheaper than they'd have probably anticipated!
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If this England football team were a T20 team they’d definitely pick 3 anchors.
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After 2 seasons of them in IPL it’s still pretty difficult to nail down GT’s strategy.
Last season they won so many fine margin moments. This season they’ve been more dominant.
What they have done both years is consistently have numerous players step up when it matters.
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One of the biggest mistakes a sports team can make with squad construction is thinking that ageing player(s) are as good as they once were.
There is a human tendency to remember the best times & previous highlights, and not assess the current expected performance level instead.
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I think it’s important to reiterate how much of an on-pitch achievement it is for Afghanistan to reach the World Cup semi finals.
Not only have they started from the bottom 10-15 years ago but they’ve done it in a sport which has a structure stacked against any country doing
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Every bowler in the match with 10+ economy.
Of the 7 pacers bowling 4 overs, only Cummins & Natarajan went for under 50 runs.
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At the age of 27, is an absolute waste of a talent that Sai Kishore sits on the bench in the IPL.
In a world where left arm spinners get traded, I’m amazed he’s not a more valuable commodity in the market.
My buddy
@saik_99
has picked 16 wickets for TN so far in the comp and hasn't gone wicket less in any game. Vera level consistency. So happy for
@aparajithbaba
who is reaping rewards for his bowling. Have always rated Apar's off spin highly. Lets chase this down boys!
#TNvMUM
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Every bowler should work on their batting/hitting to give themselves the potential to play this type of innings from Umesh Yadav - it’s so useful for teams (and could get KKR over the line here) & would dramatically increase a bowler’s value in the marketplace also.
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Thinking about the T20i retirement of Rohit, Kohli & Jadeja - means they’ll only play 14-17 matches a year (all in a 3 month period) in a format where players continually need to evolve.
Solely from on pitch performance perspectives, shouldn’t this affect their IPL market value?
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Harshal Patel reaches 11.75 Cr and goes to PBKS.
PBKS needed a domestic bowler who can bat so it makes sense that they were interested, despite the high price.
Yes, he's overpriced but PBKS have a decent purse. They must have considered him a 'must have'.
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This isn't just a defeat for Australia, it's an annihilation, a humiliating realisation that their T20 philosophy is outdated, and England's is the way forward.
When will they realise?
Boundaries > Dot ball avoidance
Intent > Nurdling
And most importantly:-
Bravery > Fear
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Finally I just want to say thanks to both
@shankrajgopal
and
@anilkumble1074
for the opportunity and their support - I have loved every minute of working together.
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Shouldn’t they have worked this out BEFORE they spent 7.5Cr retaining him?
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Hard to fathom that 20+ Cr price for Cummins.
Did SRH rationalize that they could spend more than planned for him after getting Hasaranga surprisingly cheap?
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