Robber Baron
@RobberCapital
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I am proud to have reached the
#1
position on Bybit's yearly leaderboard after today's market moves.
While the rankings will fluctuate, this milestone underscores the importance of few key trading concepts in my journey that I'd like to reflect on and share with you.
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After years of trading in the shadows, I have decided to create a public persona to network with others in this space.
In the coming months I will be sharing my mental framework and analytical process that help me capitalize on efficiencies in cryptocurrency markets.
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Since the Bitcoin ATH in March:
New supply:
- 5B from mining emissions
- 3B from Germany
- 6B from Mt Gox
- 2B from Genesis
- 2B from US Gov
New demand:
- 5B from ETF inflows
13B of net new supply is the reason we are trading at 58k down from ATH at 73k.
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Success in short-term directional crypto trading hinges on understanding the interplay between flows and the market’s existing positioning. A trader profits by correctly adjusting the market positioning in response to new information that alters the expected path of these flows.
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The most critical skill in discretionary trading is, without a doubt, the alpha generation process. In essence, risk should only be taken when you possess insights into future market flows that others do not—a true edge.
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Some of the things I've talked about may seem exceedingly obvious but I enjoy talking about things abstractly as you tend to uncover more universal truths.
I hope it was helpful for those starting out in their trading journey.
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it's is a fun intellectual game—arguably one of the most engaging and dynamic games to have ever existed.
I am blessed to trade these markets everyday for a living.
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In summary,
trading, at its core, is a measurement problem.
It all boils down to how well you measure flows, market movements, edge, uncertainty, risk, emotional state relative to your competition.
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The journey to becoming a better trader often parallels the journey to becoming a better, more self-aware individual, making trading not just a financial endeavor, but an exercise in self-improvement.
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Whatever deficiencies you have within yourself inevitably find a way to manifest in your trading. In many ways, trading acts as the ultimate form of therapy, relentlessly exposing personal biases, emotional triggers, and areas of weakness.
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The bittersweet reality of the leverage these markets offer is that it can crown you a king with a single well-timed trade, or reduce you to the slums with one overconfident misstep. There is a fine line between boldness and recklessness that one can never be too sure of.
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My method of extracting money through directional bets in this market is to be flat 97% of the time and react accurately and decisively to new info.
I have no strong long term views on the success of this industry which allows me to remain objective in both directions.
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Another common pitfall is the desire to be right rather than the desire to make money. This mindset often leads traders to double down on losing positions and take unnecessary risks, driven by ego.
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I will be sharing some of my edges and frameworks in the coming months.
If any of you would like to reach out and work together on capturing inefficiencies in these markets, I am open to DMs.
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Ed Seykota famously said, "Win or lose, everyone gets what they want from markets. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money."
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Edges inevitably decay over time as market participants who create the inefficiencies turnover capital to those who capture them. Eventually, the dollar-weighted average participant adapts, eroding the inefficiency until it ceases to exist.
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A common tragedy in these markets is that many people are more driven by the desire to feel something than by a genuine commitment to winning. They get caught up in the allure of excitement of quick riches.
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A simple yet crucial skill in trading is the ability to explain why the market moved as it did today. This involves processing new information, translating it into a fair value, and then comparing that with the market's actual response.
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The most consistent and repeatable edge in markets lies in the ability to process information more effectively than the dollar-weighted average participant in a market.
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These feel obviously uncomfortable at the start, but after looking back through a trading career, a majority of wins come from slam dunk obvious spots where the edge was so much exponentially larger than typical that it could have been sized so much bigger with relative safety.
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Sizing is more art than science, refined continuously throughout a trading career.
The intersection of your conviction and your risk tolerance.
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After alpha generation, the second most crucial skill is monetizing the edge, with position sizing playing a pivotal role. There's a natural tendency to size all bets uniformly, but in reality, the edges we encounter can differ vastly, sometimes by several orders of magnitude
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One must constantly refine and find new sources of edge. Fast iteration cycles result in swift alpha decay, allowing us to witness generations of market evolution/natural selection unfold within remarkably short timeframes.
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Or one can excel simply by having superior intuition and being more precise in evaluating how a given piece of information impacts the market's fair value.
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Trading cryptocurrency markets is the easiest path to wealth that exists in this generation for people with excellent critical thinking and analytical abilities.
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Identifying these edges can vary significantly with market conditions—what may be relatively straightforward in one regime can become exceptionally challenging in another.
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The final skill is managing your emotional state—an intensely personal journey unique to each trader.
Much like edge generation, this aspect of trading demands ongoing iteration and is a lifelong pursuit.
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It's unclear how much of the new supply has actually been sold. I estimate 7-8B of it has been sold.
Sustained ETF inflows is the key ingredient to any continued bullishness for Bitcoin.
Pretty much every `catalyst` should be measured in how much ETF inflows it would bring in
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In every market cycle, there are generational opportunities that demand maximum conviction—moments where you’re meant to go all-in with your full stack.
There have been a few of these already that I have been blessed enough to capitalize on this year.
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It forces traders to confront their fears, impatience, overconfidence, and need for control, providing a mirror that reflects not just market performance but personal growth.
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In a similar vein, macro developments really only matters for Bitcoin price to the extent that it prompts new tradfi participants to allocate into the ETFs.
Native participants are pretty much max long on spot by now and new derivatives positioning gets unwound quickly.
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There is an old adage from WWI:
"war is long periods of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror."
In the same vein, crypto trading consists of long stretches of chop, interrupted by sudden, violent repricing as the market reacts to news that shift the path of flows.
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Conversely, so many trades can be attributed to bets with such a thin edge or so much uncertainty that in retrospect shouldn't have even been taken at all, regardless of the PnL outcome.
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By measuring these discrepancies and discounting sources of uncertainty, you're left with a clearer understanding—and sometimes, an edge.
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In the past months, I have begun to brush against some of the upper limitations of the alpha I can capture as a lone trader.
For these reasons, I have created a public persona in order to expand my network and sharpen my tools.
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Immense amounts of leverage is accessible at cheap cost.
Rich data sources and visualization tools are open to the public.
Traders are more transparent and collaborative on public forums compared to traditional counterparts where information is siloed.
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There are many ways one can beat the market and find edge.
Some traders leverage extensive information networks, enabling them to interpret a broader range of market movements than others.
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Others invest in robust news infrastructure, positioning themselves among the first to receive and react to new data.
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The sophistication of even the top participants in this space is relatively low. Huge amounts of discretionary edge are captured by lone traders or lean teams comprising of a risk taker and a few analysts.
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The participant base of crypto markets are less diverse relative to traditional counterparts.
This allows you to remove many sources of uncertainty, and isolate, experiment, and iterate on different alphas at a fast pace.
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Bullish Catalysts:
1. Consistent uptick in ETF inflows
2. Continued stablecoin inflows
3. Binance entity closing shorts
4. Tradfi rerisking on CME due to improving macro conditions
5. New buy orders from entities like Marathon
6. A reversal in Kamala's polling odds
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A profitable trader quickly processes new data, precisely gauges its impact on future flows, and accurately assesses current market expectations.
Let’s apply this framework to the current market conditions by analyzing the current state of flows in the market:
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- Saylor is in the midst of executing a $2 billion buy order.
- This morning, the U.S. Government transferred $600 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime.
- Marathon has announced the conclusion of a $300 million buy order at today’s close.
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Bearish Catalysts:
1. Conclusion of Saylor’s buy order
2. Additional Bitcoin transfers from the US Gov to Coinbase
3. Continued improvement in Kamala Harris’s odds
4. Outflows from ETFs
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- ETF flows have remained stagnant over the past three weeks.
- There have been $3.5 billion in stablecoin inflows this past week, likely aimed at buying the dip.
- A large entity on Binance Futures has flipped from a significant long position to short around the $61,000 level.
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Each day brings new data—whether from macro developments, ETF flows, political developments, stablecoin movements, or market positioning—that influences price action and provides opportunity for a trader to profit.
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- CME derivatives positioning remains low, reflecting uncertainty over a potential soft landing and has dampened speculative interest from tradfi.
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- Crypto natives are also lightly positioned, having depleted much of their speculative interest during the July rally spurred by Trump’s strategic reserve announcement.
- The Dems have experienced a significant boost in election odds over the past month.
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