Robert Manning
@Rmanning4
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StimsonCenter Distinguished Fellow in Global Foresight & China programs.
Joined May 2014
Other nations are allowed to have national interests, whether we like it or not.
Indian exploitation of this crisis is still part of the narrative, like it or not.
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First a hoax, then try bleach. how many died from Covid due to Trump idiocy?.
four years ago today, Trump was holding one of his covid disaster-conferences and trying to downplay a pandemic that went on to kill more than a million Americans with some flu whataboutism.
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This tracks with a number of studies. Putin is mortgaging Russia’s future for a sick obsession. Putin’s Russia Is Going Broke Fast. Here’s Why. Follow @newrepublic.
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What does it take to invoke the 25th amendment? This is just a taste of the damage Captain Chaos can do in 16 days.
this is a conspiracy involving the president and his administration to commit sedition and treason.
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You broke it, you own it.
GOP lawmakers plead for calm, urge Trump to help restore order amid Capitol violence
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Yep. The emerging DC zeitgeist seems to be: Don’t accept the legitimacy of CCP govt. China can’t change. War is inevitable. The debate is how best to weaken China & prepare for war. — with a mature nuclear state & No.1 trade & capital exporter. Bon chance.
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@ForeignPolicy On what planet? US policy in the Middle East for past 40+ years has a series of bumbling disasters. If this has been success, I’m terrified to know what failure would look like.
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Why is this nincompoop taken seriously. He sounds like an IR undergrad after a couple of beers.
Vivek Ramaswamy: One of my first actions toward Mexico will be to threaten the country with invasion. @atrupar .
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You mean like Putin had to have Ukraine , and like Xi had to have Taiwan?.Colonizing a NATO ally?.How do you define insanity?.
Will Trump buy Greenland and rename it Trumpland? Thanks @Zakka_Jacob @CNNnews18 for seeking out my views. Though sadly he didn't ask that question. Zakka: the answer is "he'll make Denmark an offer they can't refuse."
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Give it a rest, you fool. Hearings along the lines of Nxon & Clinton impeachment, rules set by Republicans. And look in the mirror before you toss out such epithets. We know your M.O. is calling people things you know apply to you. Tiresome.
Corrupt politician Adam Schiff’s lies are growing by the day. Keep fighting tough, Republicans, you are dealing with human scum who have taken Due Process and all of the Republican Party’s rights away from us during the most unfair hearings in American History. .
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Good question.
What are allies to make of the fact that Mr Trump had a warm hourlong chat with Mr Putin and a hostile 25 min call with the Australian PM?.
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2nd wave outbreaks in China, South Korea, singapore. Shld be a Red Flag for US & states re-opening despite lack of criteria. Wuhan reports first new coronavirus cases since end of lockdown | Free to read via @financialtimes.
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Trying to prevent the future has become a major theme in US politics and foreign policy.
So the WSJ editorial board goes there - we should keep on supporting gasoline cars just to prevent China from taking over the EV industry:.
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You sound like an ignorant fool. US spyplanes have flown over China's airspace for years -- despite their protests. Nations spy on each other & have for 5000 years. Stop with the "I'm tougher than you" BS posturing.
China would never let a spy balloon fly through their airspace. No strong leader would. And now, it’s flying above South Carolina. Capture the balloon. See what they are collecting. Hold Xi accountable. We need American strength back.
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Brilliant strategy to compete w/ China: train Chinese & Indian PHd scientists & engineers, then deny them an H1B visa so they can go home and compete against us. Sounds like a Marx Bros movie.
JUST IN: Trump to sign executive order suspending certain work visas through 2020
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What you're asking is: What does the US accept as China's legitimate interests? If the answer is accepting US Primacy in perpetuity, that is a recipe for conflict.
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This is insane. How can America treat it as normal? Metrics of decay….
BREAKING: Another evening, another mall shooting. At least 10 shots fired inside the Wolfchase mall In Memphis, TN. So sad that Americans deal with this crap as if it was normal. No reports on victims or fatalities as of yet.
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This is brilliant. Contemporary Surrealism.
No, the government didn’t massacre billions of birds and replace them with drones. The Birds Aren’t Real conspiracy is pure parody, meant to mirror the absurdity of conspiracy theories that have taken flight across the country, says founder Peter McIndoe
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Can he possibly be that stupid? Absurdly wrong on too many levels to detail.
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What if Biden went to Lafayette Park and said, "Mr.Trump, tear down that wall!".
“The New White House Fence Is Getting Covered In Protest Art”.
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Here's some of the collateral damage from the war in Ukraine.
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He makes clear that the CHIPS Act could backfire if US tech firms lose the China market. Anyone think of that beforehand?.
Chip war update: Nvidia CEO warns that US tech is at risk of "enormous damage". Why? Because they won't be able to sell their products to China - their largest market - and China "will just build [the chips] themselves". Extremely obvious from the start.
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He doesn't seem to know he just slipped on a peel.
Mike Pompeo says US not ‘banana republic’ after mob attacks Capitol.
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How to discredit any legitimacy as a mediator.
SCOOP: China's envoy urged European diplomats to split from US and urge immediate cease-fire, leaving Russia in possession of the parts of Ukraine it now occupies, @bopanc and @kimmackrael report. via @WSJ.
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Is this how Rome fell? Politicicizing public health ? Idiocracy. Covid backlash hobbles public health and future pandemic response
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Black is white, freedom is slavery, ignorance is knowledge. .
Chip Roy: As we are looking at what’s happening in Ukraine… we’re looking at that and we’re talking about war crimes, I want to talk about the crimes against humanity that has been perpetrated by Anthony Fauci, the CDC, and the federal government against the American people
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His efforts worthy of a Nobel prize.
José Andrés distributing food to Ukraine with ‘army’ of cooks, restaurants: ‘We are food fighters’ @chefjoseandres @WCKitchen @MSNBC
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Part of the Exceptionalist pathology is that it’s a Manichean world. We’re the righteous good guys and xxx is evil, thus no sense of causality or security dilemma. Evident now also re: China.
For decades, U.S. officials have widely recognized that enlarging NATO, especially to Ukraine, ran at least some risk of putting the United States on a collision course with Russia. Below are some quotations that I didn't have room to include in my piece.
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Sad stuff. Trusted partners, US-ROK, FTA, WTO. Not to mention large Hyundai, KIA FDI factories in US. Free & Open? rules-based order -- apply to US?.Embarrassing & Credibility costly. 'Worse Than MAGA’ – South Korea Erupts Over Biden’s Trade Policy
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Some thoughts on crypto currencies, Cybersecurity and the future of money. Bye-bye Bitcoin: It's time to ban crypto currencies
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I think in the real world, it is pitied.
Trump: "We're respected again as a country. You know, we're respected again. You may not feel it. Although I think you do. You may not see it. You don't read it about it from the fake news. But this country is respected again.".
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How does that work if the US bans China from AI and Supercomputer chips and chip-making equipment, seeking to prevent them from the top end of tech?.Seems pretty clearly aimed at choking off growth in that area, one key to future econ growth.
An Asian diplomat recently: Many in China think the US is trying to suppress China's growth, to hold the country down. I think it's vital the US make clear that is *not* our goal. In fact, that the best way for China to continue developing is to work with a balance of power. 1/.
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Embarrassingly dumb any way you slice it.
@WhiteHouse staff does cleanup and walk back. “Officials privately sought to clarify Wednesday with the Chinese that Biden’s description of Xi does not reflect a new talking point or official policy shift by the administration.“
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What Chutzpah and BS. His rejection of JCPOA unleashed all the Iran activities he is complaining about. This is heads I win, tails you lose. Nice try, Mikey.
This guy has about as much self-awareness as a 2 year-old at a funeral. I’m almost envious about it.
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Metrics of decay. More than 190 mass shootings so far in 2023. Normalizing insanity.
Police says the shooting at a mall in Allen, #Texas has left an unspecified number of people dead and sent at least eight others, between the ages of 5 and 61, to hospitals.
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A personal note: I have departed the Atlantic Council and joined the Stimson Center as Distinguished Fellow in the Reimagining Grand Strategy program. Strategic Foresight and other projects to come.
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Note: US gas production is at record highs, and prices are so low that they are running out of storage space fpr LNG.
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Maybe they know something you don’t?.
Taiwan is manifestly underpreparing for the PLA threat. Democracies don't always prepare for threats. Look at the lead up to WWII in France and Great Britain, and indeed in America. Ultimately Taiwan's voters aren't going to determine whether China invades. Beijing will. 1/.
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@ezraklein It’s straight out of Goebbels. Big lies repeated often enough are believed. Make tons of false fraud accusations, then charlatans like Cruz say, oh, there’s all these allegations. Must investigate. Like a Marx Bros movie. Except millions take it seriously.
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Yes the most telling thin in this chaos is Putin’s utter silence. Strongmen can’t Los control. Stay tuned.
Jill Dougherty on CNN: Putin has essentially disappeared, though Kremlin saying he is informed. indicating he does not want to be associated with this.
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@ForeignPolicy Flaws of Biden’s policy notwithstanding, can’t get past the point that none of this would have had any pretext— nor likely would this enrichment have happened if Trump had not broken the word of the US & exitedvthe agreenent.
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Fact check: Unemployment under Trump: 6.2&.his tax cuts added $8 trillion to US national debt, and ran down economy futing horribly mismanaged pandemic.
Kamala is ignoring the economy because the numbers don’t lie—Trump’s record is 7x better than Biden-Harris.
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Earth is hottest in 125,000 years, but Saudis say ‘what, me worry. Are we headed toward an air-conditioned self-extinction?. G20 deal on fossil fuels blocked after Saudi opposition via @FT.
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Funny how there’s never any causality in anything the US does. Really no change re: Taiwan over past decade? You can be for it or against it, but don’t pretend everything was just fine until BJ went nuts.
What's getting lose in the debate about Pelosi's Taiwan trip is that it's China's leaders who are shooting missile's around & destabilizing the region. No one is making them do this. It's their choice & its not their only option.
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Any jackass can kick down a barn. No idea how to govern for the public good.
I love how decisive Musk was in shutting down the continuing resolution. Did you see how Trump complied immediately? Going to be awesome having Musk running things for the next four years and making America great again. Unfortunately, as a South African he couldn’t be President,.
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WHO is flawed & inexcusably sucked up to China, But allies are right, we need global coordination and a stronger, reformed WHO. Like defunding the Fire Dept when your house is on fire. US allies l condemn Trump’s WHO funding suspension via @financialtimes.
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Hmmm. China has become Congress' political punching bag. This will not end well.
Incredibly illustrative: only 22 bills were signed into law this year by Biden (the lowest ever) BUT Congress introduced a crazy 616 anti-China bill that went nowhere. Effectively all about grandstanding to look "tough on China" but getting nothing done.
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Yep. Indonesia seriously under-estimated.
I was struck by Indonesia’s bewildering diversity: It has 1,300 ethnic groups speaking 700 languages spread across 1,000 inhabited islands. Yet somehow it has stayed together since winning its freedom from Dutch rule. It has even become a democracy.
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What if US assumptions about China are wrong?.Just Askin. Washington is wrong to assume Beijing is incapable of accommodation.
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Pathetic. Should just not review them.
Amazon agreed to allow only five-star reviews for Xi’s book in China.
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Better late then never. But this is not good. New Chinese hacking tool found, spurring U.S. warning to allies
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Incredible irony: Trade-bashing is at high tide, US 3rd qtr growth spurt driven by -- you guessed it, EXPORTS.
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Facts are stubborn things.
NYT: "America can’t build a green economy without China. The US cannot build a competitive renewable or electric vehicle industry from scratch. US engineers will progress in these industries only when they can work with their Chinese counterparts.".
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We both know what is ridiculous -- injecting bleach, rejecting medical science and making fun of masks, calling it a hoax, magical thinking "like a miracle it will go away. "no national testing or vaccination plan. #bloodonyourhands, Caligula.
The number of cases and deaths of the China Virus is far exaggerated in the United States because of @CDCgov’s ridiculous method of determination compared to other countries, many of whom report, purposely, very inaccurately and low. “When in doubt, call it Covid.” Fake News!.
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Looks more like the Sopranos every day.
Then Stone implicitly threatened to spill the beans unless Trump granted him clemency and then Trump commuted his entire sentence including court fines.
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@SpeakerRyan @HouseGOP BS, you twit. You will take away in healthcare and other safety net far more than you give them back in tax cut that wasn't needed. (should have done just corporate tax cut, that was needed.).
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America has been trying to change China since the days of missionaries in the 19th century. Apparently the mission civilisatrice has no learning curve.
Pierre Rosanvallon, probably the greatest living expert on democracy, says a democracy has 3 essential elements:.1) that those who govern truly represent the people.2) that there's trust by the people in those who govern them.3) that the decisions taken by those who govern are.
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Why do you think it’s called Idiocracy?.
Let me get this straight: A Fox anchor, OnlyFans creator, climate denier, tech company owner, and bad businessmen will run our government & be in charge of our lives & rights. This is what America gets by voting for Trump. We are so screwed.
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Never agreed much with Dick Cheney. But kudos for this unarguable statement.
“In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.".-Dick Cheney .#NeverTrump #TBT
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In case you wondered why China has invested so much in Congo and across Africa. China set to tighten grip over global cobalt supply as price hits 32-month low
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Not too many anti-Vaxxer wingnuts in South Korea. A first US step out of vaccine nationalism. Johnson & Johnson Vaccination Fully Booked in 1 Day
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Oh Please stuff it. Beijing punished Drs who warned of COVID started, covered up its human spread for 3 weeks, enabling it to more easily spread. You owe the world transparency of the origins of COVID. IT is a global public health good. Not blame game, just truth.
This is what happens when the WHO doesn’t negate the PRC’s conspiracy theories of frozen food and agrees they’re “possible”, while admitting as much a lack of evidence as the widely discredited lab origins theory.
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The great unasked question is foundational for any strategy: what does the US consider China’s legitimate interests?.
We don't take seriously a range of alternative Chinese futures and then design policy to manage downside scenarios while ensuring we have policies robust across all futures. No. We pick one dystopian extrapolation from the darkest interpretation of today.
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Sorry, this is unacceptable, lett people eat in peace. They have liberty too. Not smart way to influence people.
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This is significant, going after Beijing’s fantasy irredentism in violation of its obligations to the Law of the Sea Treaty, which it ratified.
“South Korea and India have joined the US, Japan and European countries in supporting the Philippines in its maritime disputes with Beijing in the SCS, as China’s recent use of water cannon against a Philippine resupply ship creates a global backlash.”
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Empty words, just like on Ukraine. Xi as peacemaker is a hollow fraud.
As Beijing speaks out for Palestine, China is closing and demolishing hundreds of mosques, "as part of the government’s efforts to restrict the practice of Islam." important new report from Human Rights Watch.
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Yep. Captured nicely in movie "Don't Look Up.".Highly recommend.
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“No limits.”. Chinese frigate chased Russian warship away from Diaoyu Islands to stake territorial claim, Japan says | South China Morning Post
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Sorry, this is nuts. Olympics at any cost? IOC is dangerously greedy. Tokyo virus cases at 6-month high as Games near
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I suspect Bill will have a long night in the situation room.
Would pay to hear Bill Burns take on Russia tonight.
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Hard to comment. Facts are facts. Mike Pompeo Is the Worst Secretary of State Ever
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Hmmmm.
BREAKING: North Korea has not exported "weapons or ammunitions to Russia" in the past and is not planning to do so either in the future, North Korea's defense ministry official says in a statement. More soon @nknewsorg.
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Exactly. After 36 yrs in Senate, what was he thinking?.
Biden has the smallest House majority since the Civil War and a zero majority in the Senate. Perhaps expectations were just a little high?.
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Kim has discovered that even Porcupines get viruses. His flawed policies coming home to roost.
North Korea ‘in great turmoil’ over Covid death toll, says Kim Jong-un
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Really, Newt? you're supposed to be a historian. It was Nixon who was all over price controls.
Dangerous Democrats never let crisis go to waste, try to slip socialism into #coronavirus emergency bill. Price controls=fewer vaccines. What good is fixed price if not enough supply? Found ways to make flu vaccines available cheap w/o price controls. Can do same with coronavirus.
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Metrics of dysfunction.
Thanks to a near-broken confirmation process, the US does not have a U.S. Ambassador in:.- Israel.- Egypt.- Lebanon.- Oman.- Kuwait.- No confirmed top USAID official for the Middle East for nearly 3 years.-No State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism for nearly 2 years.
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The gravest danger would be a North Korean move on the ROK to achieve lingering reunification fantasies, if the US launched a major military response to a Taiwan contingency.
We should expect increasing collaboration among China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and others like Pakistan and Cuba. If China moves against Taiwan, we should assume these others will do things to help it, including by seeking to distract America.
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Evidence China is sending lethal aid to Putin? US & Der Spiegel report says considering, discussing. If so, huge mistake. It would blow up their narrative, last shreds of credibility & they own the war. Does PRC think it has agency to save Putin from the hole he's in? Very dumb.
🧵 Noah has a good piece here: China directly arming Russia changes not just the complexion of this war but the broader geopolitical landscape in ways we probably can’t fully grasp yet. In the short-term it almost certainly moves the EU into the “anti-China” camp.
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Exactly. Now, war support commitments. Permanent security arrangements, should be in the context of war outcome.
NATO could announce that Ukraine will not be admitted now but in the future, once its war with Russia is over. But that would create a perverse incentive for Russia to keep fighting so as to prevent Ukraine’s entry into the transatlantic alliance.
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Yep. Welcome to the multipolar Middle East.
Trump did America's Mideast allies no favors by pulling out of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2018. According to a senior Defense Department official, Iran could produce enough fissile material to build a nuclear bomb in just 12 days.
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Definitely a significant step toward reality.
Plot thickens. Brazil's leftist president Lula says he won't recognize Maduro in Venezuela unless he shows impartial evidence that he won recent election. That's an important step. Will Mexico's AMLO follow? Colombia's Petro?.
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This has not recieved much attention in the US, but may escalate conflict in the East and South China Seas.
‘China's Behaviour Based On Its Big Lie Of Sovereignty(Claims Ruled Bogus By The Permanent Court Of Arbitration @PCA_CPA) Can Get Pretty Ugly Pretty Fast’ @Rmanning4 @ACScowcroft @AtlanticCouncil . @StratNewsGlobal.
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Wishful thinking.
@nytopinion @GovChrisSununu Sununu: “Trump’s too dumb to be a danger to democracy. Let’s not give him that much credit. … I want everyone to relax. It’s all going to work out.”. Says we survived Civil War, McCarthyism, 1968, 9/11 and even Jan. 6. “Asshole leaders come and go, but our system stands strong.”.
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@FPRI_Orbis Demonstrates that when everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Defense industrial base already in trouble.
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Why am I not surprised? Trump has no idea what trade is how it works, only crackpot views misunderstanding what trade deficits are.
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His answer is a complete non sequitur.
GOWDY: If you're president, how would you address the war in Ukraine?. DESANTIS: First, I think what we need to do as a veteran is recognize that our military has become politicized. You talk about gender ideology .
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Pretty much.
Around the world, very wealthy people are tricking ordinary voters by capering as ostensibly anti-establishment, pro-worker candidates. Donald Trump and J. D. Vance are part of this camp of elites—and Elon Musk is the latest addition, @RadioFreeTom writes:
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Indeed. This helps explain why Biden is fighting the last war on trade.
Another economic headwind 💨 for China 🇨🇳. Made in China is no longer the cheapest option. It’s not even particularly cheap. Cc: @Noahpinion @ElbridgeColby @PekingMike @jacobhelberg
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Pretty much. But why does the media keep calling the GOP conservative. Better fit: radical nihilists.
“The immediate problem America faces is that it no longer has a center-right party that represents traditional conservatism, or even respects basic constitutional principles such as the rule of law,” @RadioFreeTom writes in The Atlantic Daily:
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Stunning absence of coverage in US press of what was a quite substantive Summit w/ meaty stuff tech cooperation, $40bil in ROK investment in US -- chip and battery production, Vaccine/global health coop, Climate, and accord on dealing w/ NKorea.
Moon and Biden wrap up ‘best summit ever’ with agreements aplenty
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The latter in the case of China; the former in the case of US, don’t get how China sees it’s interests & history,.
I’ll say it again it regarding the sorry state of US-China relations: Is it that we don’t understand one another or is it that we understand one another only too well.
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Much of the world watching & increasingly doubting that the US is still a serious country.
House GOP clown show and dysfunction.
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A gentlemanly, protracted conventional war between 2 nuclear states with clashing ideologies and visions of world order. Right.
The most likely result of Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific is not nuclear escalation, as many strategists fear—it is a protracted conventional war between Beijing and a U.S.-led coalition, argues Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr.
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This man who prevented WW3 is why AI has its limits. Humans need to have last say not autonomous weapons.
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Interesting.
BREAKING: Russian military research facility, apparently involved in development of at least some of the S-series surface-to-air missiles and Iskander ballistic missiles, is on fire with dead & many injured.
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