Dal Riata Capital
@ReganCoda
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Never ceases to amaze me that some of the biggest FinTwit accounts are 26 yo "macro strategists" who never touched a PnL in their life while there are guys running 10-11 figure AUM on here with 60 followers and a cat avatar.
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Living with a 6 yo is like being on a never-ending McKinsey interview.
"Hey Dad, how many leaves do u think there are in the world?"
"Hey Dad, who has the longest legs?"
"Hey Dad, if our house was full of balloons how many would there be?"
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One of the great ironies in investing is that often the guys deepest in the weeds, who have massive models and can tell you which flavor Skittles the CFO's niece likes, are some of the worst investors.
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Nobody knows more about real estate than this guy:
Who do you think knows their field of interest better than anyone else alive?
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People wondering why $GOOG is down may want to ponder why $GOOG doubled in the span of 2 years instead.
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Dear bulge brackets:
I've registered for your shitty research portal 97 times since I started working from home a year ago. I just want to click on the link in an email and have a report open without 8 factor authentication, notarized documents a and a retina scan.
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These poor Russian kids training with 100 yo equipment and tactics would be smoked on the battlefield by some 17 yo American operating a Predator drone from an airconditioned bunker outside of Las Vegas who has been playing Fortnite since age 5.
While America is focused on indoctrinating our children with rainbows & pronouns, our adversaries are training their children to be warriors.
American world dominance is dwindling and the future is not pretty.
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I love Buffett and Munger as much as the next guy, but don't want to be doing this when I'm 90. Think that's why I unironically love Hugh Hendry. Burns bright, clips 2/20 for a decade and then says eff it, and spends his days paddle boarding in St. Barts.
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@lizzie_wade
No. All beings want happiness and wish to avoid suffering. Wanting to avoid being sacrificed is a basic human response. Pretending that people wanted to be sacrificed is absurd.
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Mark my words. Energy stocks are going to have a meme stonk phase at some point in the next year and it's gonna be wild.
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Real Estate Twitter is 90% guys born on third base who accidentally ran backwards to second base and glowingly talk about how great they are at hitting doubles.
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Every group management meeting:
HF bro: some arcane minutia bullshit no one else knows or cares about
LO equity bro: generic question after spending 10 minutes on investor presentation
FI bro: boring credit question about a 2028 maturity
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Pelosi should fly to Taipei in a single F-22 flanked by 100 F-35s trailing red, white and blue exhaust.
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@YakWeasel
Not a mental health specialist, but I'm pretty sure that watching Dick Proenneke in 'Alone in the Wilderness' is a certified cure for depression, anxiety and overall existential angst.
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am I long enough energy? no. but did I avoid riding the sector into the downturn? no. but do I at least own enough e&p shitcos now to give me a big beta tailwind? also no.
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I don't care for all that fancy, modern shit. Give me an '89 F-150. Such a beauty.
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@XiJinpimp
@Sturgeons_Law
TFW you realize you're Labor when you thought you were Capital all along
Cc:
@VegaVandal
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Colorized image of Rasputin pleading to Grand Duke Pavlovich that his influence over the Tsarina is wholly appropriate and in no way unbecoming.
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What's it like to be an Energy investor these days?
I own an E&P in my PA that is up 300% in 3 months. Still 50% of my cost basis.
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*Anti-vaxxer dies a horrible, intubated death*
God: Hey, didn't expect to see u so soon!
AV: I prayed u would save me, what the hell?
God: LMAO I sent u 3 vaccines bro
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There are some huge FinTwit accounts that are flat out lying about their credentials. Deeply weird and pathetic.
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By your late thirties, there is zero middle ground when running into high school friends. It's one of two outcomes:
1) Holy shit, u look amazing!
2) God damn, what the fuck happened to you?
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@LizSimmie
I'm not a tax guy, but people saying Bloomberg because of the low effective tax rate seem to be overlooking the fact that Uncle Warren is winning the game by not even generating lots of taxable income in the first place.
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I'll take 'Things you see 12 years into a bull market' for $1,000
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When you realize that you are the rich man North of Richmond
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@waitbutwhy
@poweredbyart
Cool. Now do the amount of batteries (and raw materials) it would take to support that.
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Pro tip for all the $USO bagholders. Wanna bet on oil?
Bullish: Buy $CVX, $COP, $CNQ, $SLB
Bearish: short any shitco. Literally any one.
Stop trading shitty ETFs with trading mechanics u don't understand.
It's really that simple.
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5) Those heavy hitter anon accounts really do exist, but they probably wont be much use to a lot of people. Why? Because they aren't just spitting tickers at you to buy. Their value is in how they think, what they focus on and what they don't focus on.
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Every E&P: "We have 500 years of core of the core of the core inventory."
2 years later
"We are excited to announce a major acquisition of acreage which we are funding by tapping our credit facility and issuing debt."
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Talking my book here, but having paid off my student loans and also having not yet college aged children, forgiving student debt but not fixing college affordability is horrible policy.
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Hackers: Give us money or we'll lock u out of your account forever.
Me: Promise?
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@SuperMugatu
I have a love/hate relationship with this S&P 500 histogram, but the simple read is exactly as u state...
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Every Energy sell-side note: Energy is very strong and we still like the sector, but u might want to trim, but we still like it, but definitely keep an eye on the exit and maybe take some profits, though short and medium term momentum is solid.
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Crypto bagholding President of El Salvador dunking on Peter Schiff. What a time to be alive.
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3) You really do need quality reps in this game. Not paper trading, not sideline quarterbacking. You need to make mistakes that hurt. It sucks, but sometimes you need to be told you're a fucking idiot. By your boss. In front of your colleagues.
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Lord grant my children the confidence of a shitco CEO raising his dividend despite quickly running out of drillable tier 1 acreage.
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@FracSlap
Good reminder...as investors, we dunk relentlessly on these companies and frankly I have little sympathy for the C suite. But for every asshole Aggie taking his plane to his ranch, there are thousands of hard working regular folks being gutted by this downturn.
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Do not understand AAPL fanboys. Wife's $1500 Macbook just died after 2 years. Meanwhile I'm on year 4 of a $300 beater laptop. This pattern has repeated multiple times with laptops, phones, etc.
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A lot of the renewables space is literally the same half-cycle economics game that got shale in so much trouble.
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Not buying this gee shucks r/wsb story. If u don't think there are hedge funds behind the scenes priming the pump, probably even planting info on reddit directly, then I have some $GME $200 calls to sell u.
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Gotta respect Tim Cook. Everyone thought he was the placeholder who wouldn't amount to anything. Now he's built a multi-trillion dollar biz and just straight up kneecapped the meta wunderkind.
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@BenBerdankweed
@QTRResearch
@ReformedBroker
No. The only impact to an asset manager in this environment is withdrawals or market AUM hit. They claim biz is steady, so nix the former. As for the latter, an asset manager should be prepared to weather a 30% drawdown as part of normal biz. The S&P 500 is off 5% YTD. Clown show
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Cohodes: people don't like me because I'm so successful and they want to be me.
The people: We don't like u because u pump frauds and are an asshole.
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Seeing a lot of "You don't have to have an opinion on everything" type tweets. If u don't have an opinion on little kids getting murdered, what the fuck is wrong with u? Seriously, go fuck yourself.
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Funniest thing about this One World Petroleum thing is that the guy probably figured energy would be an easy mark to pivot to. Just a bunch of non Internet savvy boomers. Instead he runs into an absolute buzzsaw and has been dragged mercilessly before he knows what hit him.
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Twitter was a broken business, but a great product. Making it a worse product to improve the business is quite the strategy.
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Claiming humanity is doomed and we'll never reach Mars because u got caught trading horses for handjobs is quite the deflection.
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4) Yes, there are markets (like now) where being totally naive and throwing caution to the wind is a winning bet, but if you do that over a cycle or a lifetime, you will eventually blow up your account.
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@quantian1
C'mon, it can't be that bad, surely you are exagerr....
*clicks on link*
*reads entire paragraph of Bill Gross imagining his estranged son making out*
Annnnd...I've had enough internet for the day.
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@Technologic916
I trust Hopkins far more than WHO but would be interesting to get context on why so different on the fatality rate vs the new 3.4% fatality rate coming from WHO.
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Imagine struggling to feed your kids in El Salvador and seeing shit like this from your President.
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Not surprised to see this tweet do numbers. We all know this guy. Sad thing is he is almost always a super nice guy. Just has horrible instincts and shit timing.
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Me, to myself every time I think of buying yolo Energy calls:
TRUMP TOLD PENCE ON JAN 6 : "YOU CAN EITHER GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS A PATRIOT OR YOU CAN GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS A PUSSY" - NYT
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@TheBenSchmark
Buffett is like Bob Marley. When you first hear Bob Marley as a kid you're like "Damn, this is amazing!"Then you go through that period where you want to be cool by pretending to not like him. Then sometime later in life you're like "For real tho, Bob Marley slaps"
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My two month old asked me, "Dad, I want oil beta exposure, but the Integrateds will be hampered by downstream and MLPs are a scam. If I invest in E&Ps how can I know management won't dilute me at the wrong point of the cycle to boost reserves?"
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I was holding my two year old daughter on a walk moments ago and for the first time out of nowhere she said,
“What if PXD is the XTO of this cycle?"
I started to quietly tear up. She couldn’t see my face and didn’t make a sound, but I said,
"Just buy oil sands and offshore”
I was holding my two year old daughter on a walk moments ago and for the first time out of nowhere she said,
“God is good. God is real.”
I started to quietly tear up. She couldn’t see my face and I didn’t make a sound, but she said,
“Don’t cry. It’s okay.”
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13Fs are backwards looking and never tell you the current thinking of a manager unless they hold one of my names in which it is a sign of our common genius.
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2) Investing is a craft and like all crafts, being good at it generally takes some combo of: good mentors, practice and experience.
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To clarify a bit, some of my absolute favorite accounts are pure anons, nobodies, people entirely lacking in credentials. There are some brilliant first principles thinkers here.
This is for the people who gather a following by holding themselves out as something they are not.
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Canadian Energy FCF Yields
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When your wife informs you that there are still a dozen plus presents from Santa that need wrapping.
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Me earlier this week: Biden has been quietly supportive of O&G. No major drilling bans, etc.
Biden last night: LEEEEEEEROYYYY JEEENNNNKINS
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$CNQ: Net debt target achieved. Now aiming to return 100% of FCF to shareholders.
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Everyone dunking on Goldman's England prediction, but real ones know they just did that to move the line and scoop Italy on the cheap.
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My advice on options trading:
1) Don't
2) Understand the concept of implied vol
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Imagine explaining
#Budagate
to someone not on TWTR or familiar with Energy. U have to explain:
-TWTR and subgroups like EFT
-Energy sector and the downturn
-Shale and its history of scams
-
@Nimblephatty
and his friend Greg
-Meme culture and TWTR humor
Super niche.
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Just great. What am I gonna do with all these bags of gasoline now??
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"Conoco, which is basically an integrated name...."
Uh, yeah, except the part where they don't own any downstream.
Double top for energy?
@CarterBWorth
charts the $XLE.
@Michael_Khouw
presents the good and bad news for the sector and lays out a trade $XOM
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Dearest Martha, I write to you with a heavy heart from the plains of Burning Man. I have subsisted merely on the minor portions of a Perfect Bar (Peanut Butter) and a few sips of kombucha. Rumors swirled through camp that the unicycle camp may have provisions. Alas, they did not.
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@SuperMugatu
The sad truth about emerging manager life is that u can do everything right, tick all the boxes and not get any AUM. I've seen many people with awesome performance, impeccable credentials, differentiated process, etc. go nowhere.
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My 3 month old asked me, "Dad, if ESG is just levered factor bets on growth and tech, will I still be able to charge 120 bps for my closet index fund when the cycle turns?"
Me: "I am so sorry, son."
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@buccocapital
Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage
Lesson: no matter how f*cked your situation seems, just keep pushing forward.
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A quick thread since this took off....
1) A lot of the 26 yo strategists are decent guys/gals who went to great schools. They are smart and well meaning. Age is not the issue, per se. Ed Hyman isn't a legend just because he is 90.
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Lot of people dunking on Morse call for U.S. to add an additional 10M bbl/d by 2026 at a sustained $90 oil price. The footnote however is *chef's kiss* "Without constraints on labor or capital."
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Sometimes I worry about AI, but then as I reach down to free my Roomba for the 52nd time for some dumbass thing like getting stuck in a corner, I think you know what? We have some time before the robots take over.
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Weird and slightly terrifying.
Palantir Buys $51 Million in Gold Bars
$50.7 million in 100-ounce gold bars. Appears they took delivery from the Comex
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Nowhere near my favorite beer, but there is something so satisfying about the solidity of the 22 oz steel Sapporo can.
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Saw a guy at the airport recently going to his gate with nothing. Literally nothing. Clothes on his back and (maybe) a cellphone and wallet. No carry on, not even a coat. I've never felt so inspired.
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Me: a professional investor, CFA, etc.
Also me: It's fun owning low priced stocks in my PA in ridiculously large share amounts because it feels like a lot, even if the dollar amount is not impressive.
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@LSValue
Several lurking in Energy, but the problem is that most future10 baggers are names that are knocking on death's door and the line between 10 bagger and Ch. 11 is very thin.
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I'm willing to forgive Bezos for the girlfriend, the TRT, the crazy yacht, etc., but inviting Jared Kushner, Russell Wilson and Kim Kardashian to your 60th birthday party? Jesus man. Have some self respect.
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Me: So, I had a tweet go viral, guess how many likes I got?
Wife: Uh, 10,000?
Me: JFC. No. C'mon
Wife: You need some hobbies
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Maybe goes nowhere, but some big names in ESG are coming out of the woodwork and starting to say 'the emperor has no clothes'.
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"No, it's fine honey. I'd totally love to go to a party where I know literally nobody instead of watching the college football playoffs."
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Daughter at a sleepover where the mom hired a company that sets up special tents, air mattresses and goodies for the kids.
Fed needs to hike to infinity.
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Sometimes u need to look backward to see how far you've come.
2010 me: prints out giant stack of research that I never read
2021 me: opens 100 browser tabs I never get to
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@modestproposal1
In the entire history of investing, I'm not sure there's a more epic version of style drift than going from a 300 year vision to trading yolo FAANG options.
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"You see, if we start drilling wells closer to each other we can fit more on a section, it's called down spacing. Then we choke the well back, put up some monster IP24s and bam, investors are gonna eat this shit up!"
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