Josh Hendrickson
@RebelEconProf
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Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, Ole Miss | Senior Fellow @btcpolicyorg | Economic Forces Newsletter:
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They’re going to dilute the shares of the little guy and let insiders accumulate more shares at a discount to prevent a guy they just offered a spot on the board from accumulating more shares. Are you paying attention yet?
BREAKING: Twitter, in a statement, said its board of directors has unanimously adopted a “poison pill” defense in response to Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s proposal to buy the company and take it private.
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Cool. Now, who is going to teach Robert Reich economics in just two days?
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You: Actually, this business of inflation is all very complicated. We’re doing our best to figure out how to stop it, but it’s not like there’s some simple solution.
Milton Friedman:
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You’re elected president. What portraits are you hanging in the Oval Office?
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SBF and Jean Ralphio.
1. Same hair.
2. Rich parents.
3. Started a business that spent lavishly, hired professional athletes, and didn’t keep any accounting records.
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Their solution to an excess demand for houses is to create more demand for houses.
President Biden is calling on Congress to give middle-class first-time homebuyers a $10,000 tax credit to help lower their monthly mortgage costs.
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Owning a home isn’t a crime. We need to cancel every penny of mortgage debt.
Owning a car isn’t a crime. We need to cancel every auto loan.
Am I doing this right?
Getting an education isn't a crime. We need to cancel every penny of student debt.
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You: What is academia like?
Me: Well, I’m often forced to talk to people like this.
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Bitcoin is not crypto. New op-ed from me about the vision of bitcoin versus the experience of crypto.
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A quick thread on bitcoin, crypto, and all that…
The creation of Bitcoin was not random. It was the product of deliberative efforts that people had been working on for decades. As more and more things were recorded electronically, these people recognized the need for privacy…
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Hello! We noticed that you recently used your CBDC balance to purchase cookies from your local bakery. We recognize that this might be a treat, but this is an unhealthy choice. To help you make healthy choices, you won’t be able to make a bakery purchase for the next 90 days.
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Economists: economic growth results from finding ways to produce the same amount of stuff with fewer resources.
You, an intellectual: economic growth requires infinite resources.
You don't need to be a Marxist to oppose capitalism.
You need only be numerate.
It simply does not add up.
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For people in crypto,
1. Things are going to get worse. Probably a lot worse. The Binance/FTX deal is not done. It might not happen. There is a lot to unwind here and there is going to be substantial backlash.
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It’s actually still dismissed as a fringe theory because it’s wrong, it’s silly, and demonstrates a lack of understanding of economics. Despite what they write below, it’s not being taken more seriously by economists. But journalists seem to love it. So there’s that.
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In an effort to stimulate the economy, we have lowered the deposit rate on CBDC balances to -2%. Attempts to exchange CBDC for alternative stores of value like gold, silver, and bitcoin are subject to fines. An approved list of consumer products are listed on our website.
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The same people who tell you that plugging a bitcoin miner into an electrical outlet is destroying the planet will also tell you that plugging your electric car into that same outlet is saving the planet.
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Actually, people who ask questions like this are generally just trying to be nice and make conversation. Don’t project your insecurities onto others.
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Academics: we need people from more diverse backgrounds.
Also academics: if you haven’t decided to get a PhD by age 10, it’s too late for you.
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Economists: Here are 1,000 papers on Covid.
Me: Do you guys want to talk about the microeconomic foundations of usury restrictions in the Middle Ages, or no?
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4. I constantly see crypto bros complaining about bitcoiners and how toxic they are. Complain about bitcoiners if you want, but they're the only ones trying to save you from the scams.
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Tick. Tock.
JUST IN:
#Solana
-based protocol Solend has voted to temporarily control the largest whale's account to mitigate liquidation risks.
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1. Railroad derailments are a regular occurrence over a century later.
2. Radio and television are dying.
3. Cheap nuclear energy is not allowed.
What lessons should we draw from this?
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But the people who try to piggyback off of this innovation with their bullshit protocols, tokens, and exchanges to profit off of people who don’t know any better need to be called out. Stay tuned.
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Wrong. Send sats via lightning
Dogecoin could become internet’s currency, Robinhood CEO says
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If you want to fix universities, the solution isn’t to eliminate a massive source of revenue and publicity for the university. The fix is to eliminate all of the unnecessary administrative roles that do nothing but serve as a jobs program for people with unmarketable PhDs.
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6. Certain VCs will accuse me of being anti-technology and other nonsense. I'm not anti-technology. I'm anti-scam. I'm anti- giving Adam Neumann money for scams (but this one has a token!). I'm anti- SBF is the new Buffett or J.P. Morgan. Time and again, their narrative is wrong.
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Actually, it’s quite obvious that it was the record-high money growth. I wrote about it at the link below. It’s not economists who are confused. It’s ideologues and their journalist promoters who are confused. Learn some price theory. It will set you free.
After two years of surging prices, economists still can’t agree on what has caused the world’s worst inflation crisis in decades.
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5. Stop taking cues from VCs. They're dumping their worthless pre-mined tokens on you. Look at all the hype coming from Silicon Valley and the people they promote: Elizabeth Holmes, Adam Neumann, SBF, etc. These aren't quirky geniuses. They're just quirky.
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Remember when some big-J journalists wrote story after story about how Ole Miss violated the sanctity of amateur athletics because a football player slept on a coach’s couch, but ignored the story of an LSU booster who laundered money through a children’s hospital to pay players?
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Indeed, why is it 2% when the overwhelming majority of the literature on optimal monetary policy suggests the optimal inflation rate is less than or equal to 0%.
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“It’s called the Quantity Theory of Money. You can look it up. It basically says that an excess supply of money causes prices to rise. Why have you been taught that central banks are fire fighters when, in fact, they are the arsonists?”
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We need to shut down the Yale Economics department until we can figure out what’s going on.
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So this came via campus mail today. Thanks to everyone who helped along to the way. I would also like to thank all the haters and the losers, of which there have been many, for providing a source of inspiration. Time for a new challenge.
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Bitcoin and the entire process that led up to it was motivated by the desire to make the world a better place and internet commerce more private. It was a true technological innovation. The market will decide what that innovation is worth.
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There seems to be a widespread confusion in the economics professor world as well. In the absence of a solution to the oracle problem, a deterministic supply is the only way to solve the problem outlined by Klein (1974). (1/x)
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But I’ve also watched this cryptocurrency industry emerge around bitcoin that is full of the worst people. Everyone from scammers to Ponzi schemers to VCs who just want to make a quick buck off of people who don’t understand this stuff.
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MMT had a good run.
Venezuela not having enough money to pay to print its currency is really amazing
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For years, I’ve been careful about what I say about this stuff. But now, enough is enough. I’m going to write about this stuff more and I’m going to call out the scammers.
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Still the best Christmas commercial you’ve ever seen. Reflect on why that is.
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People are dunking on this, but it’s honestly just sad. Find real meaning in your life.
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If a fraction of the rumors I’m hearing about FTX are true, then SBF belongs in prison and there needs to be an investigation of all the people who enabled him.
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Shoutout to all my fellow Catholics who will be starting Mark Wahlberg’s 40-day challenge today, or as we call it, Lent.
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Nope. This is not a thing. On any level. Spending on “fun things” doesn’t cause inflation. Economists aren’t worried about this. And even if you wanted to prevent this behavior (for whatever reason) you would tax it. You wouldn’t raise interest rates.
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The effect of the Castro regime on the Cuban economy (warning: actual empirical work).
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If you’re attending the Harvard Extension School, this is what your instructors think of you.
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The great thing about the Rogan podcast with Peter Zeihan is that it’s on video. The visual medium allows you to see that Zeihan exhibits the cadence, mannerisms, and arrogance of a well-trained BS vendor.
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RIP Captain Holt
Andre Braugher has sadly passed away at the age of 61.
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Inflation is apparently a negative function of the number of trees in New York.
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Me: Hayek’s “The Use of Knowledge in Society” is profound.
Sowell: You have no idea.
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“But Josh, how can you say it’s a patronage network for people with particular ideological commitments?”
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Sometimes I look at my profession and I think “what a joke.” If you think a bricklayer lacks human capital, I suspect you’ve never been around a construction job. My friend’s dad was a bricklayer. He was a brilliant, hard-working guy. Embarrassing tweet.
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3. Binance is doing due diligence and can walk away at any time. But consider this, Binance itself is incredibly opaque. No one even seems to know where Binance is domiciled. This is not your savior.
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A neglected aspect of the rational expectations revolution is that it made a lot of Keynesians angry because the models showed they couldn’t manipulate the public into actions that would bring about the Keynesians’ desired outcomes and upset their belief that the public is stupid
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It also solved what I’ll call the Klein problem in economics, the idea that for a private money to circulate one must trust the issuer won’t wake up one day, print a bunch of money, & use it to accumulate a bunch of wealth before everyone else realizes the money is now worthless
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Actually it’s because he’s a member of the club and his work fits the correct ideological priors. But nobody is supposed to say that.
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Milton Friedman was once asked if rising oil prices were the cause of inflation. After all, these prices were rising the fastest in the price index at the time. Friedman replied, “there’s a difference between accounting and economics.” Anyway, here’s a colorful graph.
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One aspect of this was thinking about how to create an electronic form of money. These cypherpunks had a wide variety of backgrounds, but they studied money and monetary history. They learned from people like George Selgin and Larry White about commodity money and free banking…
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Previous attempts to create a private (both in the sense of privacy and provision by the private sector) electronic money failed. The main problem was always that there were single points of failure. Bitcoin solved this. It made it possible to have a decentralized money…
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Hi! Your recent social media post has been deemed problematic. As a result, we’ve deducted $2,500 from your CBDC account. We hope you’ll consider caution in the future and help us fight misinformation. Thanks!
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2. We don't really know Alameda's counterparties. Rumors suggest a massive hole fueled by massive borrowing. That means that there are potentially more failures to come.
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At long last, the draft is here. "The Treasury Standard: Causes and Consequences"
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I heard about bitcoin in April 2011. I’ve had an academic interest in it ever since. To me, it was exciting because it provided a natural experiment to test various conclusions from monetary theory that were understood in a world in which something like bitcoin had never existed
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Oh hey, that’s me.
WBD606 - What Do Economists Get Wrong About Bitcoin with Josh Hendrickson (
@RebelEconProf
). We discuss:
- Unprecedented sovereign debt
- Inflation vs deflation & the Fed vs free banks
- Why people dismiss
#Bitcoin
-
#Bitcoin
’s power to help humanity
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It did this by having a deterministic supply that cannot be changed without the consensus of the users of the network. And those users have no incentive to deviate from that initial rule. Thus, one doesn’t have to trust an “issuer”
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I got kicked out of Econ Twitter long ago, so the costs of this tweet are quite low. But only in academia could you be condemned for saying something like this. We know this is true. Sowell has written about this — and is criticized for it. Now it’s
@kearney_melissa
. She’s right.
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@thetrocro
1. There’s not going to be inflation
2. Okay, there’s inflation, but it’s temporary.
3. Okay, it’s not temporary, but policy will fix this.
4. Higher inflation is actually good.
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Sometimes I argue that deposit insurance eliminates the incentive for depositors to monitor their bank and the incentive for shareholders to care about depositor funds. Those arguments are often dismissed. Anyway, here’s a tweet from a guy with a PhD in economics from Harvard.
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We’ve arrived at “higher unemployment is actually good” in record time.
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Over the last decade, I have met many people interested in bitcoin. Economists, computer scientists, and software developers. This has been a rewarding experience. All of these people have gone down the rabbit hole of everything you need to know to understand bitcoin.
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Hi everyone! Just a reminder that you will not be able to spend from your CBDC account until you stop protesting the government.
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We, a tiny group of elites who live in the exact same bubble, come from the same backgrounds, and made all the same mistakes, are meeting at a place that few of you could afford to visit to compare notes and make sure we’re taking everything into account.
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If you read the cypherpunks, they warned us about all of this. Bitcoin (and its failed predecessors) are attempts to bring the privacy of cash to digital transactions. Privacy is not secrecy. Our existing anti-money laundering laws don’t even work. They are the epitome of failure
When it comes to banking policy, I don’t usually agree with the CEOs of multi-billion dollar banks. But enforcing anti-money laundering rules against crypto to protect national security is common sense & critical. It's time for Congress to act.
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Person I just met: Why in the world would you put a chicken place right next to another chicken place?
Me: Let me tell you about the Hotelling model.
(This is why economists sit alone at parties.)
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This is remarkably bad. Like an embarrassment to National Review bad.
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The media provides a never-ending supply of exam questions with their ridiculous headlines.
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The Bitcoin podcast industry is like “here’s 5 interviews with the same person all within a 10 day period” ad infinitum.
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