Randy Frederick
@RFrederickMedia
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Retired / Founder: / Former Managing Director of Trading & Derivatives at Charles Schwab
Austin, Texas
Joined October 2014
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Talk about technical resistance. The $SPX hit a "brick wall" at the old high.
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I always loved the Munsters.
Herman Munster’s words of wisdom in 1965.
Still no lies told...
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I was just reminded by my wonderful colleague, Diane Jacobs that today is my 28-year anniversary with
@CharlesSchwab
. It has truly been an honor to have worked for this great company for so long.
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With its close below 12,685 today, the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) is officially in correction territory now.
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As you can see, with a +2.6% rally in just the last 2 days, the current $SPX has now surpassed the 4,027 target implied by the 2009-10 Roadmap. The most likely time to expect weakness is when earnings season begins in about 2 weeks. In the interim?
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The last 36 years has been a lot of fun, but I am now officially and fully retired; effective 9/1/24.
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At just 0.32, the volume put/call ratio on the $VIX yesterday was the lowest since 5/3. Since the VIX tends to move opposite the $SPX (about 75% of the time) this implies growing bearish sentiment for equities.
#options
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At 5.245M, Initial Jobless Claims not only came in below the 5.500M estimate, but also below last week’s 6.615M level. It appears that claims may have peaked on 3/28. The 4-week moving average is now 5.509M; the highest ever.
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Fascinating article about Bitcoin; and from this perspective, I would say, "bubble? possibly... problem, hardly".
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As of 5/21/20 the $SPX is +31.8% from the 3/23/20 bottom. On 5/21/09 the $SPX was +31.4% from the 3/9/09 bottom. Few people believed the bear market had ended then either. It doesn’t feel right now, and it didn’t feel right then... because it never does.
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Fed Funds Futures now indicate only 4% chance Fed will hike rates on 3/16. This was 8% last week. 46% chance for 6/15; was 38% last week
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Outside my office window right now. Mirrored glass is great.
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$SPX has only closed with a loss >11% three times in history. 10/19/87, 10/28/29... and today.
#options
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RIP General Colin Powell. I had the great honor of interviewing him at a Schwab event back in 2016. He was a true gentleman.
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"History doesn't always repeat itself, but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain. This year-over-year comparison should make us all a little uncomfortable.
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It arrived about when the $SPX 2009-10 roadmap indicated, but at -3.7% so far, the downturn was less than the -5% I expected. While it appears that the worst is over, I would remain cautious a while longer. Last time it came in 2 waves; -6.7%, then -1.5%.
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It's nice to see the $SPX bounce back from the 200-day SMA (2593) for the 5th time in the past 2 weeks, but with the Chinese trade spat still escalation, next week could be just as volatile as this week was.
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Today's volume put/call ratio on the $VIX is a very low 0.12 and all 10 of the top 10 most active contracts are calls.
Here is an interesting trade. Someone bought 6,700 $VIX 6/17/2020 100 Calls for $0.33 this morning. Yes, 100 calls, which are 66 points out of the money with a Delta of only 0.05.
#options
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In the past 3 sessions, the $VIX and the $SPX have risen in tandem. Historically this has often preceded a reversal in equities...but it could be different this time.
#options
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Per NYSE rules, a Level 1 (-7%) or Level 2 (-13%) halt can only occur once per trading day; that means $SPX must fall 13% before a 2nd halt will be implemented today. If it occurs after 3:25 PM ET, then no halt is issued at all.
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Unless/until the $SPX falls below the 10/12/22 bottom (3,577) this has been the weakest bear market since 1966.
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If you believe the technical "death cross" (which happened yesterday) is a sell signal, don't forget that the last one (3/30/20) was followed by a 24% rally before the next "golden cross" (7/9/20) arrived.
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It's almost as if there were some sort of roadmap to tell us when this pullback was going to occur...
Ꙭ
͝
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1.371M jobs were gained in August; better than the consensus of +1.350M. The Unemployment Rate was just 8.4%, much better than the 9.8% estimate and down from 10.2% in July. The Labor Force Participation Rate was 61.7%, up from 61.4% in July.
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In the past 72 years, December has been an up month 75% of the time & January has been an up month 60% of the time. At -5.7% so far, this month is on pace to be the 3rd worst December since 1950; only 2018 (-9.2%) and 2002 (-6.0%) were worse.
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Since the $SPX hit another all-time high on Friday (6/11), here is an update of how this bull market compares to other bull markets in history. In <15 months, it has already surpassed the gains of 5 previous bull markets, all of which lasted longer.
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The bear market that ended yesterday was the most calm and orderly bear market in 30 years. Since the
#VIX
was first launched in January 1993, this was the only bear market in which the VIX did not close above (or even touch) 40. This chart shows all the
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The $VIX index spike has been so dramatic that $VIX Futures are now lower than the spot for the first time in months.
#options
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To all of my Twitter followers, I wish you a Happy New Year!
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I don’t understand why my neighbors complain that I have too many Christmas lights.
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I discuss global markets with
@jeffreykleintop
, Schwab’s Chief Global Investment Strategist
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Incredibly, with 63.6M contracts traded, yesterday (1/24) was the highest volume options day ever; slightly edging out the previous record of 63.5 set just last Friday (1/21). Lots of expired positions being replaced.
#options
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Volatile markets can be challenging to trade. Here are 7 ways to help keep your plan on track.
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I didn't mean immediately.
Ꙭ
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Remember that high volatility means big moves in both directions. Some of the biggest single-day spikes tend to occur during sharp downtrends. Equities are overdue for a sharp bounce higher at any time, but such moves tend to be very short-lived.
#options
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Enjoying a little beach R&R this week. I’ll be back on Monday.
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The overall ISM manufacturing index only fell from 59.3 to 54.1, but the bigger story is that new orders fell to 51.1 from 62.1! No wonder recession talk is rising. The futures markets are also showing a 41% chance of an interest rate CUT sometime in 2019.
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It is released on Friday afternoon. I don't work weekends.
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Please think twice, three times, four times or more before you buy stocks that have filed, or are about to file bankruptcy. Investing is not gambling.
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What a difference a year makes. Not only is market performance much better overall, but the sectors have all swapped positions. The worst became best; best became worst. Utilities are the only notable exception.
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I had a few minutes to stop by the beautiful Dana Point lookout, on my way to our client loyalty event tonight.
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With the current $SPX pullback (now -4.2%) the realignment with the 2009-10 Roadmap is now essentially complete. Will this continue into the next wave up? Time will tell.
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Huge jump in housing starts today; now at the fastest pace since June 2007. Biggest move was in apartments & condos. Building permits also highest since 2007.
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Be a skeptic if you want, but the $SPX is now back in perfect realignment with the 2009-10 Roadmap.
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Published Friday (1/21) in my Weekly Trader’s Outlook: “the SPX tested the 200-day SMA (4,429) on Friday…it’s too early to know if a breach will occur or not. If it does, a 10% correction (below 4,316) may not be far behind..”
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As we saw last Friday, average hourly earnings are +4.7% y/o/y, but with headline inflation +7.0% y/o/y, it's not surprising that consumer sentiment gauges have plummeted over the past 6 months.
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Keep your eye on the Nov Core PCE on Friday (12/23).
It is often called the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Unlike the CPI & PPI, Core PCE has remained stubbornly high rather than peaking in June; probably the reason the Fed has remained so hawkish.
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A better kind of Ponzi. No scheme here; just great wine and beautiful scenery.
@Ponzivinyards
#Ponzivinyards
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Yesterday (6/13) the $SPX officially closed in bear market territory; thus the bear market began at the last high (1/3/22). Here is how it ranks against all of the bear markets since WWII. At this point it is 161 days long with a decline of -21.8%
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Schwab gave this to me in 1993 and I still use it multiple times every day. We used to calculate option margin requirements on it; thus the programmed keys. "If it ain't broke don't fix it".
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And there you have it. For the 4th day in a row the bears tried to close below the -10% line and the $SPX said "denied"! A break is almost certainly coming soon, but will it be above the 200-day SMA or into correction land?
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With all the volatility, you may have forgotten that it is still earnings season. With 275 companies (55%) of the S&P 500 having reported so far, 80% have beaten EPS targets and 78% have beaten revenue targets.
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At 214k, the 4-week moving average on initial jobless claims is now equal to the 48-year low set on 5/12/18. No signs of weakness in the labor market at all.
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The $SPX has risen 238 points (+5.7%) since this tweet went out.
If you believe the technical "death cross" (which happened yesterday) is a sell signal, don't forget that the last one (3/30/20) was followed by a 24% rally before the next "golden cross" (7/9/20) arrived.
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Nothing like a beautiful trail ride to burn a few calories before dinner. Just me and Black-eyed Susan.
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Investors’ margin debt is highly correlated to market performance. However, in February, margin debt actually increased by $5.6B (+0.7%) to $835B; somewhat surprising given that the $SPX was -3.1%.
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Putting last weeks Initial Jobless Claims into perspective with previous spikes. It's going to go a lot higher in the coming weeks.
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The high CPI shouldn't be too surprising; it's mostly due to what it's being compared to. The low point of the Pandemic (April '20) causes the line to be very steep y/o/y. Last month I warned that this was going to happen. It will also happen in May.
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This softness in equities we're seeing this week seems to be right on schedule, and it may not be over yet. Notice that the last 5 times the 2-year Treasury yield and the
#SPX
hit a high correlation point, equities pulled back. The average decline was
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From a purely technical standpoint (which should never be the sole basis for a trading decision) one could argue that the correction simply "corrected" the market back to the long-term trendline, and the market could be back to new highs by October.
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There is virtually no logical explanation for today’s intraday reversal, which means it is likely to be very short-lived. Stay in the market, but keep your guard up, and don’t take unnecessary risks.
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Beautiful hike on Saturday; Enchanted Rock near Fredericksburg, TX
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Note to my followers: My tweets are all facts or interpretations of market activity based on 30+ years of observations & data. They're not opinions & don't reflect a political bias. Interpret as you like, but don't look for hidden meaning; there is none.
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As you can see, the current $SPX continues to sharply outperform the 2009-10 Roadmap. Perhaps an extended divergence will occur, just not in the way we expected. The roadmap implies a pullback (perhaps 6% to 7%) within the next 1½ to 2 weeks… or not.
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The $SPX is now past the point where the 2010 correction began. If this Roadmap has any validity, the risk of a downturn has risen. Again, I don’t expect a full correction (>10%); something like -5% to -8% is more likely, before the dip buyers step in.
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After studying the $VIX for 30 years, it tends to fall into 4 zones:
4. Above 40 – Panic Zone
3. 30 to 40 – High Anxiety Zone
2. 20 to 30 – Elevated Uncertainty Zone
1. Below 20 – Normal Zone
We're now in VIX Zone 1 for the first time since mid-August.
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25 years and counting. I'm proud to have worked for this fine company for so long.
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With the very strong core CPI (now running at +2.2% y/o/y) the outlook for interest rates has changed dramatically today. Yesterday the odds of a 50 bps cut on 9/18 were 31%; today that has dropped to just 15%.
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Someone sprayed graffiti on the Stevie Ray Vaughan statue; the greatest guitar player ever (IMO). C’mon Austin, you’re better than this.
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Major ice storm in Austin last night. Internet is intermittent but thankfully we have power/heat. Unfortunately, it looks like I’ll be doing a lot of chain sawing this weekend.
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Take the SPX x the VIX and then divide the sum by the square root of 365 days. So right now its: (2830 x .3719) / 19.1 = about 55 points per day in either direction.
@RandyAFrederick
is there a formula that I can find that tells me given the value of $VIX what the approx. movement range of $SPX could be?
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Clearly a man of good taste.
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Almost as quickly as I sent this the $VIX and the $SPX turned on a dime and reversed. This is not a market for those who don't have nerves of steel. Small traders without substantial risk capital should consider sitting on the sidelines right now.
$VIX is rising sharply at the moment, even while the $SPX is still up. This could be a signal that this rally will not hold up this afternoon.
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The $VIX got it right again↓
The rising $VIX suggests a weaker $SPX this afternoon; probably not negative, just lower than the current level.
#options
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I know it feels like a meltdown is happening, but it's only -8.5% at this point; not even correction territory. As I said last week, dips like this represent buying opportunties that will likely pay off nicely by year-end.
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I know it feels dicey out there, but let’s put this pullback into perspective. The $SPX is currently below the 50, 100 & 200-day SMA, but it is still 81 points (-1.8%) above correction territory and a huge 561 points (-12.8%) above bear market territory.
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After testing the -10% correction line 3 times this week and holding it all 3 times, keep your eye on the 200-day SMA. A close above this level today could be a technically bullish signal for the $SPX.
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Technology stocks are now dead last in YTD performance. Quite a turnaround from first place last year. Likewise, Energy has gone from last to first.
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The change in sector leadership versus last year is pretty amazing, especially among Energy, Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Technology:
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I have tweeted numerous times in the past 2 weeks that we were due for a -5% to -10% correction. As you can see in this comparison chart I've sent several times, it may have arrived right on schedule. The $SPX will likely be about -3.5% at today's open.
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I will continue to follow the $SPX 2009 - 2010 roadmap into 2021 as long as it is relevant. No one knows how long that may last. At the moment, late-January is a bit of a concern.
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It was amazing to see this 959 at my mechanic’s shop (GT International) here in Austin. They are incredibly rare (only 337 were built) and very valuable. The G on the stick shift is for off-roading; really.
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Patience Grasshopper. As expected, the $SPX found support just above the 50-day SMA today. Let me say this again, “Bargain hunting during pullbacks can be a tricky game. It's generally best to wait for 2 consecutive solid up days before adding exposure”.
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The
#SPX
hit a new bull market high on Monday (7/3) and is now +24.6% since it started on 10/12/22. Here is an updated table showing how it compares to other post WWII bull markets. After 9 months, it is still the weakest since 1942.
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The 2009 $SPX roadmap continues to guide 2020 market direction remarkably well. And as you can see, yesterday's pullback arrived pretty much right on schedule.
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At 0.74, the Composite Equity Open Interest Put/Call Ratio is at its lowest level since 1/16/09. These are very different times. Then, the $SPX was 6 weeks away from the bottom of a 17-month (-56.8%) bear market. Now it is at an all-time high.
#options
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Realignment indeed. 2-3 more days of sideways movement and the roadmap will be back in sync.
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Again, I can't predict the $SPX reaction, but if history is any indication, there is reason for caution tomorrow.
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At just 1.77, the open interest put/call ratio (which (measures all outstanding contracts) on the $SPX cash index, has just reached a new 20-month low. This implies very low institutional bearishness.
#options
#OptionsTrading
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2020 looked remarkably like 2009. No one knows if the roadmap will continue into 2021, but if it does, the latter half of January looks a bit worrisome.
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If the bear market ended on Monday, at only 33 days it would be the shortest by far. However, we can’t officially declare the bear market over until the $SPX climbs 20% from the bottom; that’s about 2,684, or about 5% above its current level.
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Unusually high options volume today on $BBIG. All 10 of the top 10 most actives are calls and aggregate contract volume is >343k contracts, making it the 8th most active name in the marketplace today. $BBIG stock is +145% in the past 3 days.
#options
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I’m not expecting a deep correction, or even anything > -10%, but I do think we are due for a pullback of about 5% - 8% after which the dip buyers are likely to step in. That could set the stage for another volatile and choppy Q3 this year.
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As uncomfortable as this market volatility has become, the usual panic seen at market bottoms ($VIX >40) has not yet arrived... which means there is probably more to come.🙁
#options
#OptionsTrading
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Surprisingly the $SPX 2009-10 roadmap is still pointing the way for 2021. The real test comes next week where the -8.2% pullback occurred in 2010. No one knows if it will happen, but the timing is about right; inauguration day is Wednesday (1/20).
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I hate to keep bringing this up, but...
This happened yesterday too; strong open but weak close. Don't forget the old adage, "Dumb money buys at the open, smart money buys at the close".
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I never expected to send this comparison out as often as I have, but the $SPX similarities between 2009 and 2020 continue to be remarkable, despite very few similarities in economic data.
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Today the $SPX officially closed below the 6/16 low (3,666) which means the bear market that began on 1/3/22 continues. When compared to all of the bear markets since WWII, at 266 days long and a cumulative decline of -23.8%, it ranks 10th out of 12.
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