I want to try to encapsulate the magnitude of big picture problems Russia is having. So here is a list:
1. In the wake of a terrorist attack Putin is blaming Ukraine instead of ISIS. This means that they might not be taking steps to address the actual problem
‼️ Russia: Mass Power outage in Primorsky Krai
It did shut down the railways.
Here’s a thread about what *appears* to be the cause and what are the repercussions.
‼️“India decided to purchase American infantry fighting vehicles instead of Russian ones”
They plan to replace “more than 2,000 Russian-designed BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles” with “the latest generation of American Stryker armored personnel carriers”
‼️ Moscow Migrant Mystery Thread
I came across a news story that caught my attention. And I’m not positive that I can identify what is going on. It seems…extra unusual.
Before we continue, a warning:
🚨 DO NOT TRAVEL TO RUSSIA
I’m trying to save lives 🥹
I guess I need to address this.
In order for this to be true, it would mean that something else has occurred to accelerate the situation beyond what my data suggests.
2. Putin has now said that the attackers were radical islamists. Russian media has pointed to them being migrants and I’ve seen no efforts to cool tempers or prevent backlash to people who might be considered associated with the terrorists. Quite the opposite.
3. Many inside of Russia know that Putin was missing for 19 hours, previously joked about the warnings from the U.S. and that the argument that Ukraine was behind the attack is nonsense.
5. Russia has a demographic crisis and a MASSIVE labor shortage. This new wave of anti-migrant sentiment is happening at the beginning of spring planting. You can imagine how Russian agriculture will go if there’s no labor.
It feels like Russia really expected there to be a strong reaction in the U.S. over their visit to Cuba.
My overall impression of the reaction has been: meh
Meanwhile…it feels like Russia is either panicking or in limbo. No one is optimistic about anything.
4. Migrants have never been in a good position in Russia but it has gotten significantly worse since the invasion as many are routinely rounded up and sent to fight in Ukraine.
6. It appears another one of Putin’s wonder weapons was defeated by the Patriot system, which is another embarrassment to Putin as Russia’s military export business continues to collapse and Russia struggles to deliver on the contracts it does have.
This new waive of fear and hatred towards migrants, is not being discouraged by the government & propagandists, in fact quite the opposite. This could lead to innocent people being hurt and many migrants leaving either by choice or by force.
8. India continues to reduce the amount of oil it purchases from Russia, the combination of banking issues and issues with sanctions has made Russian an unattractive purchase (for now at least) and India is buying more from Saudi Arabia & the U.S.
9. Due to years of neglect, Russia infrastructure is collapsing. Hundreds of thousands of Russians were without heat this winter due to the degradation of these systems that are connected to MASSIVE apartment blocks.
‼️ “Russian Railways have faced a transport collapse in regions bordering Ukraine and Belarus following the Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion” of Kursk”
It appears there is an indefinite suspension of traffic from Belarus to Russia
13. Russia is unable to stop Ukraine from hitting its oil refineries. Which could lead to a societal collapse. Propagandists yell on TV about why they’re not protecting them themselves and says they’re only paying taxes! Another Lukoil executive mysteriously dies
10. The key rate is 16%
11. Russia installed a new person to head the Russian navy. Days later during exercises the Russian navy accidentally hit a Russian trawler in the Baltic. Then communications and possibly more boats were struck in Crimea by Ukraine.
This is probably just the beginning of this problem as the budget for 2024 to deal with essentially the same or worse when accounting for inflation as it was in 2023 and is planned to be DRASTICALLY cut 2025.
I just saw someone had written something ridiculous that used big words to make it seem like something was really complex when it is incredibly easy to understand.
So here is a simple explanation of the Ukrainian Drone strikes effect on Russian Refineries
Reminder of what Russian State Media said:
“There are many infrastructure objects that could incapacitate this enemy nation, what’s left of it. It could be done fast and easy, it would impact them for a long time and distract them from everything else”
~ Margarita Simonyan
Meanwhile on Russian state TV: top propagandists urge a total blackout of Ukraine, with no electricity or running water. They argue that those whom they consider "their people" can be fed and warmed up later and the rest are "serving the U.S." to bring about Russia's destruction.
14a. Due to the issues with the Houthis Russia is shipping stuff by rail ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY to the Pacific and back again. Which is causing challenges for the railways.
14e. Russia decided to violate the Weapons embargo on North Korea. The LARGEST port structure on Russia’s east coast (Pacific Ocean) participated. So the United States sanctioned it.
14b. Due to several bad decisions years before, Russian railways are having trouble maintaining their fleet. Shortages of parts, issues with sanctions, and labor shortages are causing compounding problems and downtime for repairs continues to get worse.
14d. There’s over 2,500 oil & gas filled tankers just sitting on the Northern Caucasian railroad because they can’t travel across the Crimean bridge, and some of them have been sitting there for 6 months
22. Soldiers that were pardoned as part of the prison program continue to anger the population as dangerous criminals are released and they are continuing to commit crimes.
@JuliaDavisNews
“Russia is a nation that is very much alive. Perhaps the last truly alive people of the white race. I’m totally not a racist, I just talk this way.”
No, I’m pretty sure you’re a racist.
Now Russia’s biggest port with some of the most modern and efficient infrastructure will not be used by most legitimate major shipping companies. This will likely cause complications as they will have to switch to OTHER Pacific port that are less well equipped.
14c. Because the refineries are being hit, Russia is relying on the Railways to transport even more products from operational products even further distances on an already congested system.
14f. Everyone in a while some people blow up the railway in the middle of Russia where there is a bottle neck
14g. There are a lot of places in Russia that are accessible for shipping BY TRAIN because the roads suck. There are NO ALTERNATIVES
I look at a LOT of Russian news from Russian news sources. And I’ve got to tell you that I don’t see ANYTHING optimistic.
The Russian government is looking for ways to get more income to fund the war, so they’re taxing increasingly more things.
‼️“A giant Chinese surveillance camera manufacturer secretly fled Russia. The site is not working, the phones are not answering”
👀 They occupied half the market!
16. Russias telecommunications infrastructure is falling apart. Russian telecom operators were searching for USED parts to try to keep in running as sanctions are kicking their butt.
There have been measles outbreaks that the government has then blamed on migrants instead of the lack of vaccines. And the Russian Government cut 10% from the Russian Healthcare Budget for 2024 so they could fund the war
19. Russia was reported to have a seed shortage. But what was more telling is that several countries refused to answer their calls when trying to procure seeds from them. International relations are not going well.
15. Russia tried to make a commercial plane domestically, they keep pushing the deadline back and their current work in progress is WAY too heavy. And it’s really bad when a plane is too heavy.
21. Russia’s space program isn’t going well. Not only did Luna-25 crash and burn, which was followed by India successfully landing on the moon, but much of the contracts they had also disappeared. Now Roscosmos is selling off real estate assets.
17. Russia isn’t buying medicine. There’s a shortage of vaccines, even basic childhood vaccines. The Russian Ministry of Health turn around and tells everyone they’re mistaken and Russia had (insert number) packages of (insert missing medication) so that will last months!
@JuliaDavisNews
General: “Flood of refugees towards Western borders. Correct? Because it’s impossible to survive”
Former 🇷🇺 Commissioner for Human Rights: “I totally support the General”
Anyone still think they can negotiate with 🇷🇺?
18. Russia’s demographics get worse as the Russian government hasn’t yet provided meaningful funding to promote the birth rate. Peskov decided to tell everyone that they should make it “fashionable” to have large families as if they will solve the problem.
Other countries are happily scooping these people up and suddenly countries like Uzbekistan have an instant IT industry simply by seizing the opportunity.
@JuliaDavisNews
“Here is approximately how this all looks: Russia initiated a special military operation, miscalculated its strength, and for 8 straight months can’t win”
Yes, that is EXACTLY how this all looks
Vladimir Solovyov was furious about Ukraine's latest drone attack. Blinded by rage, he revealed that Russian experts are urging the Kremlin to end this war and came close to admitting that Russia can't win with conventional weapons.
🇷🇺: Don’t even think about joining NATO or we will bomb you
🇸🇪 + 🇫🇮 : We’re thinking about it
🇷🇺: If you join NATO we will bomb you
🇫🇮 + 🇸🇪: We’re going to join NATO
🇷🇺: OK FINE! But we better not see any NATO bases over there, or we will bomb you
27. Chinese experts wrote up document panning the Kinzhal missile, pointing out all the things we pointed out and that Putin was lying when he described its capabilities. I enjoyed the heck out of reading about it!
23. Many people still aren’t getting paid.
24. Alcoholism is on the rise!
25. Inflation is out of control, even as the government manipulates the data to make it appear like it isn’t!
34. Kazakhstan has seized the opportunity to further separate itself from Russia. The president told Putin on stage to his face a SPIEF that he would recognize the Donbas regions as independent.
The country has continued to remove Soviet and Russian symbolism.
In ADDITION it appears that if wounded soldiers manage to get their physical wounds treated, which is often a challenge itself, PTSD appears to be widespread and untreated. And even the soldiers that WEREN’T taken from the prisons are committing violent crimes in Russia.
40. Even if a Putin shows up, nobody is confident it’s THE Putin, leading Peskov to tell everyone that there aren’t any Putin doubles. And once Peskov denies something they’re even more confident it’s is true.
All of this makes Putin look weak, just like his giant tables.
30. Remember all the dangerous people returning from the war? They’re also putting them in positions authority and installing them in schools. Putin is telling people that they should be the new elites.
I’m sure that will go well!
‼️ Update on Businesses Leaving Russia.
I’m going to give a bit of a primer on this for people who aren’t familiar. For a few reasons
1. Because the way new information is presented may draw your attention away from the big picture.
31. Kadyrov endorsed collective punishment a few months ago saying: “if one of the relatives has done wrong and the criminal cannot be found, their brother, their father would be killed”
Which seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
33. Russia continues to scold and shame those who chose to leave Russia, when they desperately need them to return. The longer these people are gone, the less likely they are to ever return. And MANY of these people are highly skilled & educated.
45. Before Russia invaded Ukraine RAND put out a document in like 2019 outlining how they could deal with Russia if they needed to using nonviolent means. It mostly involved getting Russia to overextend itself. Russia knew about this. THEY OVEREXTENDED THEMSELVES ANYWAY!
“This war could end today if Vladimir Putin chose to call his troops back to Russia…but we don’t see any sign of that right now unfortunately…and so…We are with Ukraine for as long as it takes & we are going to keep that commitment.”
~ Sabrina Singh
‼️ Broad overview of impacts to Russian Railways as a result of Ukraine’s Special Kursk Operation
This is just a very basic guideline of things to look for, expect, and think about, when considering new information you may receive.
46. Russia had to move a lot of its planes REALLY far away to avoid getting hit by the Ukrainians. They thought the St. Petersburg area would be far enough. Ukraine snuck cardboard drones into Russia and launched them from inside Russia destroying the planes.
26. Russia’s efforts to create a “Sovereign Internet” led to a crash and during the massive internet outage people had issues with payments on the railways among other things.
28. Businesses continue to pull out of Kaliningrad, many declaring they’re moving to mainland Russia. One wonders what the region will do if there’s no employment.
35. Relations with Armenia have completely deteriorated as the Russia’s CTSO has proven to be a complete failure. When Armenia called Russia for help, they left Armenia high and dry.
It has pushed back against Russian propaganda, flat out banning several propagandists from the country.
This widening gap between Russia and Kazakhstan is especially problematic because of things like the Baikonur Cosmodrome
29. Russia is actively sabotaging its education system as it tries to instill its ideological narratives. Declaring many “foreign agents” and that people shouldn’t have books about them in libraries or reference them in their papers.
32. The entire country currently seems to be focused on whether Russia will legalized the death penalty. Of course Russia is already executing people, but that’s not “official” and many are very concerned about it.
44. Putin made a recent big announcement about how he was going to make a land railway route to Crimea. He completely failed to point out that ALL of that would be in range of Ukraine’s missiles, and Ukraine had already taken out a bridge crossing into Crimea.
So….yeah
““Our embassies are inundated with requests.” Zakharova said that residents of Western countries are en masse asking to come to Russia”
LMAO
🇷🇺 : 😃 WHO WANTS TO MOVE TO RUSSIA?!
🌎 : 🦗
47. Russia keeps losing A-50s. Which is then leading the Russian military to make the bizarre declaration it was Russian Air Defense that shot them down not Ukraine. Even though Ukraine said they did it.
What insane sort of logic is that? And to do it multiple times!?
36. Russia never could get Belarus to fight on Ukraine. And as Russia for years looked down on Belarusian military, Russia had to turn to BELARUS to train some of mobilized soldiers.
42. Russia’s plan to “freeze Europe” failed and Russia has lost most of that revenue. Pipelines to send the natural gas to other locations don’t really exist and efforts to turn it to LNG have been…challenging 😂