Peter Martin
@PetertheRec
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Living in Venice Beach, enjoying life. Into poker, AI and travel. 🌞
Joined August 2008
I asked Operator (Open AI's tool that can do stuff on the web) to make me a meme based on this week's tech news. AI is becoming pretty self aware. 👀
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RT @TDPat22: With all the ❄️❄️❄️❄️ we forgot to update you on who won the @MGMNH_Poker $500 NLH - $20K GTD this past Sunday. It was @chatha…
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Here's my latest AI video reel... It's incredible how good some of these new models are getting. 🤯 Let me know your favorite shot! 🎬
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In sports and political betting, bookmakers aim to balance both sides of a wager to ensure profit, but biases, hype, and external influences often skew lines. Public sentiment, media narratives, and regional loyalties can drive exaggerated odds, making betting lines misleading. ### Why Exaggerated Lines Happen: 1. **Public Bias**: Fans bet emotionally, favoring home teams or stars, regardless of actual odds. 2. **Hype and Momentum**: Big events—like boxing matches or elections—create irrational betting swings. 3. **Media Influence**: Injuries, rumors, or hype can sway the public, altering betting patterns. ### Famous Betting Line Examples: - **Tyson vs. Douglas (1990)**: Tyson was a 42-to-1 favorite, but Douglas shocked the world. The odds were based on Tyson's fame, not reality. - **Super Bowl XLII**: The Patriots, undefeated and 12-point favorites, lost to the Giants in a huge upset. - **Leicester City (2015-16)**: Leicester’s 5000-to-1 Premier League title win defied all betting logic. - **Mayweather vs. McGregor (2017)**: McGregor’s hype skewed lines, even though Mayweather was the overwhelming favorite. ### Political Betting vs. Polling: Betting odds reflect what people think will happen, but not necessarily the real likelihood. Emotional investments, regional biases, and media narratives all distort odds. - **Proposition Betting**: Some bettors align strongly with a candidate, betting heavily on them, which distorts the odds compared to broader voter sentiment. - **Circle-Specific Hype**: Certain bets may only be popular in specific communities, creating lines that don't align with national polling. ### Wild Card Influences: - **Bot or Foreign Agent Manipulation**: In political betting, bots or foreign actors may flood betting markets with wagers designed to artificially push odds in a certain direction, sending a manipulated message about candidate support. - **Influencers and Social Media**: A single viral post or influencer endorsement could drive large numbers of bets toward a candidate, shifting the odds even though it’s a short-term hype rather than a true indication of popular sentiment. - **Massive “Sharp” Bets**: Occasionally, large, strategic bets from well-connected insiders can skew a line. For example, a sudden spike in bets on a long-shot candidate could shift the odds dramatically, even if there’s no solid data backing up that momentum. ### Conclusion: Betting lines aren’t always an accurate reflection of real-world outcomes. Public biases, selective hype, emotional wagers, and even outside manipulation can all push lines in ways that distort reality, making it clear that betting is more about *perceived* than *actual* probabilities.
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@ThirdWalking Great episode right here. If you haven't caught Charlie's thoughtful, wry and no-nonsense look at the world of live poker, you're missing out.
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