34 years ago today, one of the most powerful windstorms in UK history hit NW Europe - The Burns day storm of 25 Jan 1990 cemented my interest & obsession with the weather that remains in place today. Living in Braunton in N. Devon, we lost power for 2 days & Braunton Shool

There remains some quite interesting disparities between the European Models and the ECMWF and GFS at present. For example here are the rainfall totals up to Weds. The GFS and ECMWF have very little precip whereas the ICON has over 1 Inch or 25mm, with a much more active upper vortex and then reinvigorated fronts over the South delivering sig rain. The GFS/ECM keep the fronts away and thus have very little precip. Very messy and quote chaotic as we go through the next 5 -7 days with no one particular type dominating & these pesky upper air trough's low becoming slow moving over the UK. Paul

something you dont see all that often, significant Tropical Cyclogenesis with the ECMWF model and none (given the same area) from the GFS. Here the ECMWF has consistently forecast a quite intense cyclone to develop off the NW Coast vs a weak tropical low on the GFS. It seems a more robust vorticity signature, low shear and keeping the disturbance further away from the coast allows more sig development to take place on the ECMWF. #96S

Some quite good agreement that there is potential for a fairly strong tropical cyclone to develop off the coast of NW Australia in the next week or so, with a track towards the NW coast of Australia. Some quite intense solutions being offered by some of the Ensembles.

@217_Howard_219 Wet Bulb profile :)

Much colder ECMWF tonight with high regressing to the west and a much colder flow of air from the NE & a deep low to the South over Iberia and the Med. . There wasn't much support for this from the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble, which is interesting as the Ensemble continues to suggest at least a Mod Chance of much more unsettled active Westerly Jet Stream, something very few of the operational /deterministic or control runs have suggested is likely. Interesting !! :)

12Z UKV has done a fair job vs reality. Precip has become more extensive across parts of SW England vs the model with Snow At Dunkeswell and on Dartmoor Slightly heavier in the Channel and parts of SE England than the model expects. Snow on the Higher parts of the M3 this evening, Rain turning to snow on Salisbury Plain too. Rather a messy awkward mix for Forecasters, which is not surprising given the very awkward upper kinematic and thermodynamic profiles. (as seen by the 11Z Herst Ascent)

Differences quite apparent between the 12Z ICON & GFS w.r.t mid next week. Cold air and a deeper cold pool & stronger SW pointing ridge over the North Sea vs the GFS. I am afraid models are really starting to struggle with the shape of the ridge & what happens to the semi cut off 500mb trough / upper air low over Britain over the next few days and this is starting to impart sig differences even in the short - medium term at present.

@peacockreports Models are struggling to resolve the strength and orientation of the block to the NE as is typical of such situations. Model physics and resolution has continued to increase, but the atmosphere still seemingly has the upper hand in such situations lol

RT @FerragamoWx: After 1 month of data compilation and plotting, I have FINALLY mapped out all hurricane landfalls of the western North Atl…

@Chris38bell quite likely i think

High Pressure across Scandinavia is now building and expanding with cold air moving west across the Continent. Partial & 1000-500mb Thickness values are falling and a deepening cold pool of air at 500mbs is beginning to develop across the Near Continent. This will deepen over the next 24 hrs with increased ascent over the 650-850mb level with precip developing across the SE/CS England & Channel. However the forecasts are largely showing rain/sleet with a little snow. The reasons can be seen in the 11Z Herstmonceux ascent where the Mixing level is currently below the freezing level. Therefore the B/L mixing is only mixing up above zero air. The main deepening of the cold pool and the decreased temps is aloft above the mixing level. This means that we don't tap into the much colder air aloft. and precip turns to rain. The mixing level is defined as the top of the Boundary layer, the layer of the atmosphere in direct influence with us on the ground

Still some uncertainty thrown up by the 00Z ECMWF which re-establishes the strong Anticyclone over Central Scandinavia over the weekend and into early next which eventually (in that model run) leads to an extremely cold push of air from Siberia to head west into Central and Eastern Europe & nudging into the SE of England given the High becomes very E/W orientated under a strong upper rex block. The differences seem to stem from the complex splitting and handling of the upper cold pool and cut off upper low which splits over the weekend over the UK with one piece of energy moving to the North & the other splitting and moving SE. The Models are not sure how this split up is going to occur and what the resulting situation will resemble. In the ECMWF there is more that sinks to the SE allowing the high to re establish its E/W Orientation, keeping the Atlantic Jet at bay. However in the GFS the energy to the NW is much greater and thus this weakness in the pressure pattern allows the Atlantic Jet to come much closer to the UK keeping the very cold air to the East and much more NW/SE Pressure pattern over Continental Europe. Study of the T+300 chart from the ECMWF Ensemble 51 versions of the future, doesn't show much support for the Control at this time, preferring a more NW/Se version or indeed something much more unsettled.

Good Agreement now for a large anticyclone to develop over the UK & Ireland before moving NE to Scandinavia and intensifying into the weekend. There is less agreement on the shape & extent of the associated upper cold pool moving west as part of E/W trough disruption underneath the Rex Blocking pattern. Models suggest that the cold pool will deepen perhaps deep enough to generate some ascent in the 500-700mb range where frontogensis occurs & temps and ascent become more suitable for light rain / and snow to form. The deeper the cold pool thre more likely this is. Beyond this, it looks like the cold pool will then disrupt the inflow of colder mid to upper level air, before a much stronger upper trough & extension west of some really cold air moves west from the Urals. Paul

An Interesting 12Z ECMWF Ensemble for T+240, some highly divergent solutions. Part Block with disrupted Trough , Jet diverted to the NW Easterly Block with large Russian / Scandi Anticyclone More active Atlantic Jet but with higher pressure in the East. Much more Active Atlantic Jet and quite stormy. No real dominance in any one particular solution type at this range indicating that small changes or perturbations in the initial conditions lead to big upstream changes. The complexity of the planets Atmosphere :)

only 1 ensemble member (47) had a similar synoptic set up to the Control Run, Several had a more Southerly block and quite a few were quite cyclonic (T+300 frame)

Classic Cold Pool advection and strengthening very strong Russian /Scandinavia block on the 12Z ECMWF, classic cold pool deepens as it moves west with Snow developing aka 1991 style Remains to be seen whether this scenario transpires. Models seem to be correcting towards this atm. The previous attempts on the models were never likely to work due to the very strong Jet which was going to develop off the Eastern Seaboard., This time there is not the intense cold spell over North America, therefore the jet is weaker which means this anticyclonic extension may and i repeat may - have more believable truth to it, We will need to see further trends on the models and more importantly need to see the Ensemble mean head in this direction too. paul

Models are currently trending towards a greater establishment of a large anticyclone over NW Russia from next weds onwards. This has been a trend over the last few runs implying the models are correcting towards this type of solution. They also seem to be correcting towards a greater cold pool potentially being in place over Eastern Europe and moving west towards NW Europe by next weekend. Long way to go, but climatologically the 2nd week of Feb is one of those times where Easterly incursions can / or have the greater chance of being able to be successful. We shall see., The 12Z Run of the GFS for example does show a significant cold pool developing and advecting westwards over the Continent later next week.

@beachstroller99 @Petagna @Met4Cast interesting, I am in Redhill, bmth and we have really only had light rain this afternoon. There must a tight intensity gradient