Parthan IN Weather
@PIW44
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தமிழக வானிலை ஆர்வலர். Weather Enthusiast. This page is to promote webpage, however tweets can be about non weather topics too.
Tamil Nadu, Bharat
Joined January 2016
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Good morning friends,
This is my new whattsapp channel created today. Will post weather updates and forecasts in bits and pieces. Please follow. I hope you give same support as you gave for my social media accounts. Thank you!🙏🙏
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Storm water drain, Storm water drain, Storm water drain.... Year on Year, we hear🤣🤣🤣
This is guindy!!
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🌑Powerful Solar eclipse straight over South India. 8.00 to 11.30 am.
Do not go outside.
Do not see sun with naked eyes.
Do not cook during eclipse.
Do not eat during eclipse.
Head bath after completion.
Mop entire house after eclipse.
Cook after head bath.
#solareclipse2019
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⛈️Mahabalipuram to Guntur, massive thunderstorms lined up..
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This huge ball will touch the coast in max 10-30 minutes, once it arrives, rain will be into 5th gear!
#ChennaiRain
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🌀Latest gfs update - severe cyclone close to Chennai and then moving towards AP coast. It will give more rain for coastal tn and delta districts before moving to AP.
#cyclonemichaung
#ChennaiRains
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🌀Its a Cyclone!
🌀Flash News - IMD GFS forecasts a Cyclone to form by 25th and cross between Chennai and Pondy. We need to wait for consistency!
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Flash - Chennai, Chengalpet, Kanchipuram and Tiruvallur district to receive extremely heavy rainfall during next 24 hours. As evening progress, rain intensity will pick up. Office goers, please return home as early as possible!
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🌀One more system forming by 28th nov over SE Bay of Bengal. Which is going to target Tamil Nadu by 01st or 02nd Dec. The intensity and direction need to be analysed based the available parameters.
#NivarCycloneUpdates
#CycloneNivarUpdate
#ChembarambakkamLake
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Flash - Consensus among models reached. GFS and ECMWF forecast track of
#CycloneMichaung
in line. KTCC need to be more cautious during next 3 days. Very heavy rainfall likely over KTCC districts till 04th afternoon. Wind velocity could be >75 km/hr from 03rd night!
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🌀During next 12 hours, please be cautious. KTCC districts will be worst affected with very heavy rain and strong and gusty winds. Till evening or early part of night, worst weather to continue. PIW to forecast first about extremely heavy rain yesterday!
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🌀It was a new experience tracking this depression. This was rain filled one, did not see a Depression with this kind in recent years for TamilNadu.
I thank you all for motivating me. Further I could forecast atleast half of the time accurately. Time to relax. Bye for now!
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🌀Depression to bring very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall from 10th afternoon to 11th night over North Coastal TamilNadu. So be prepared and be cautious!
#ChennaiRains
#TamilNaduRains
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🌀Flash - Eye of
#CycloneMichuang
is just 60 kms away from Chennai. Its towards ENE of the city. The SW quadrant of the system is filled with dense clouds, hence very heavy spell will continue till evening!
#MichaungStorm
#ChennaiRain
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🌧️Easterly wave will be back by 2nd week of December. Tamil Nadu shall once again start receiving rain during that period.
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🌧️🌧️Kerala to receive above normal rainfall during next 10 days..importantly starting from 13th May, it looks massive!
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If Kumaraswamy becomes next CM, its a world record and hatrick for Karnataka Assembly, it is getting continuous assembly sleeping neta as its CM for the 3rd time, which did not happen in any other states in India.
#KarnatakaVerdict
#KarnatakaElectionResults2018
#KarnatakaCMRace
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Rain to increase over Telangana, Andhrapradesh and North Karnataka and Rayalaseema from tomorrow. Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in these regions during next 3 days.
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⛈️⛈️Severe windstorm on 25th April in ganjam odisha, highly threatening one!! Source - Disaster News.
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⛈️⛈️Thoothukudi status now. Thanks to Mr Jeyendran. This can bring severe downpour in short time!!
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⛈️This big bunch of clouds to dump in very heavy rain in next couple of hours from Tiruvallur to Cuddalore stretch!!
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#CycloneMichaung
200 kms ese of Chennai. It is to move in NW direction and intensify further into a Severe Cyclone.
🌧️Rain to increase over Chennai, Chengalpet, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and Ranipet districts. Further increase also likely over South AP coast.
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Chennai to Nagai coast, Delta, Kanchi, Chengalpet, Tiruvallur, Villupuram, Ariyalur, Mayiladuthurai districts to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall during next two days. Rain begins in delta since noon hours. Chennai and suburbs to witness from evening or night!
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⛈️⛈️Chennai, Kanchi, Tiruvallur and Chengalpet should receive heavy rain with severe thunder during next 3 hours. As convergence and confluence is high along the coast!
⚠️Dont stand under tree or in open land.
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☔️Rain intensity to increase over Chennai, Kanchi, Tiruvallur, Chengalpet, Pondy, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Nagai, Villupuram and Delta districts from tonight!
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#CycloneBurevi
landfall begins between Triconamalee and Mullaitheevu.
🛑South Tamil Nadu and Delta districts need to be on high alert, as the system might enter gulf of mannar by early morning to morning hours.⛈️Very heavy rain with strong winds to commence from morning hours.
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⛈️⛈️Heavy to Very heavy rainfall likely from 3-9 pm over Chennai, Kanchi, Tiruvallur, Ranipet and Chengalpet due to depression moving slowly and creating convergence close to city. Please be cautious!
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⛈️Chennai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur and Chengalpet districts likely to receive moderate to severe thunderstorms in next few hours, rain will continue till morning hours!
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🌀Cyclone "NIVAR" to hit North Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Pondy by 25th morning!
⛈️⛈️⛈️Rain to commence from tomorrow midnight or from tuesday early morning hours over Coastal areas.
Detailed districtwise forecast will be given in today's youtube by evening hours!
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First time experience just amazing, chill breeze with sprinkles of drizzles, viewing the great western ghats with clouds over, fantastic, no words to express!!
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🌧️During 3rd and 4th week, there is a chance for KTCC districts to receive widespread rainfall again. This time it may not be a system, could be due to easterly waves. Hope not much damage this time. Further entire state has chance for widespread rainfall.
#ChennaiRains2023
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What IMD did was right. They gave forecast of extremely heavy rain 48 hours before itself. Whatever it may be, even then this govt cannot save people from these kind of weather extremes. Instead of giving excuses be more responsible Mr. CM, dont complain like a child!
#MissingCM
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⛈️You beauty, as expected today morning, rain bands over coastal belts of Tamil Nadu. Watchout for late night to early morning rains for ktcc districts. Delta and north coastal parts too has chance tonight!
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🌀A depression likely to form around 11th November close to North Tamil Nadu coast. ECM and GFS models are in consensus!
A low forming on 09th over SC and adjoining SW Bay to move towards NTN coast by 11th. Rain from this system should begin over TN by 10th evening or night!
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🌀Upper air circulation to form around 12th May over Comorin sea. It is likely to move towards gulf of mannar during subsequent days.
Rainfall likely to increase from 12th over Kerala, Western ghat districts of Tamilnadu, South TN and Delta districts of TN.
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⛈️Next 7-10 days North Tamilnadu has good chance for scoring above normal rainfall as per GFS and ECMWF models. During second week, western ghats and interior districts of Tamilnadu has high chance since Kerala and Coastal Karnataka to receive very heavy rainfall!
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This is first time in my life, I am witnessing a thunderstorm activity on my birthday. Since its an off season, its very rare case!!🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇🎇
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🌀Well marked low to intensify anytime into a Depression. The cloud top temp has reached -80c. Further dense convective clouds started to form towards noethern quadrant.This shows the strength and rapid intensification of this system.
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⛈️On 07th May, sharp change in wind direction from lower to mid levels of atmosphere to bring more moisture along with high instability. Hence North Tamilnadu, South Karnataka, South AP, North AP, Odisha to witness severe thunderstorms!
Chennai and suburbs has marginal chance!
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☔Next 5 days Pondy to Kanyakumari stretch will receive widespread rainfall. On 15th alone, KTCC has chance for moderate rain.
🌧️🌧️21-24 very heavy rain likely over South Coastal, South Interiors and Western ghats districts. 22-24 Nilagiri and Kovai has very heavy rain chance!
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⛈️Big spells, flooding type rain across Nilagiri, Coimbatore, Erode, Salem, Dharmapuri, Thiruppur and Namakkal districts..
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⛈️Convectivity is high near to coast. Storms keep forming due to gradient pressure. Storms moving from nne to ssw direction. One more rainy night for ktcc and other districts near by!!
#ChennaiRains
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🌀IMD forecast track changed today. My morning interpretation came good!
#cyclonemichaung
#ChennaiRains
Detailed Forecast from PIW!
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🌀Flash - Depression located nearly 100-150 km ESE of Chennai as of 05.30 am. Its likely to move slowly and cross the coast near to north of Chennai by today afternoon or evening hours.
Very heavy rain along with 40-60 km/hr wind expected along North TN and South AP coast!
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🌀Wow, if this happens, then almost Vardha!!
Going to be very interesting as far as steering is concerned 😍😍😍
#NEM2023
#ChennaiRains
#Chennai
#TamilNadu
#bayofbengal
#99W
dc :
@TropicalTidbits
#ecmwf
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⛈️⛈️Massive easterly flow of wind at low levels. If this remains consistent, widespread rainfall likely in Chennai and suburbs on 25 and 26 November. Further, coastal areas from South AP to entire TN coast to benefit from this wave!!
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🌀If everything goes as per gfs script, rain should begin in KTCC districts by tomorrow evening hours. The peak period would of rain would be between 18th morning to afternoon hours.
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🌀Depression over Southwest Bay of Bengal intensified with wind speed of 45 km/hr. The system located nearly 450-500 km ESE of Chennai. It has moved in wsw direction since yesterday afternoon and now moving in WNW direction. DD likely by today!
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☔️🌀Expecting one more system in Bay by 03rd or 04th week of December.
Is it going be a Low or a Depression or a Cyclone?
Lets wait and see, however northeast monsoon exist until the next system forms. It means till third or fourth week!
#CycloneBurevi
#northeastmonsoon
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🌀Tamil Nadu Brace for Very Heavy Rain!
What P. I. W Forecasted few days back is becoming reality now.
GFS, IMD-GFS and ECMWF are in consensus for system to hit North Tamil Nadu.
Few more fine tuning expected in all these models by tonight, as mjo forecast to change again!
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🌀Latest ECMWF run also brings Landfall to South Chennai. The difference is, landfall by 26th early morning, its delayed from 25th evening to 26th early morning.
However IMD stays with tomorrow evening landfall close to Pondy.
I still stand between Chennai - Cuddalore/Pondy
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🌊🌡️Lanina coming back as per major models. east pacific sst cools down to below normal. We witnessed this in 2020-2022! Generally lanina is good for Southwest Monsoon from June to September. However, we witnessed good Northeast Monsoon too during these years!
Hope increases!
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☔️Northeast Monsoon to become active from 03rd December. The easterly wave to bring rainfall activity back. Please do not ask about district wise quantum for now. Im just giving hint.
🌀Secondly, a tropical system likely during second week in Bay. Cant say further for now!
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🌀A Depression or a Deep Depression likely to hit North Tamilnadu or South AP coast by 11/12th November.
🌧️🌧️🌧️🌧️Very heavy rainfall likely over entire North Coastal TamilNadu on 10th and 11th November!
👉Heavy rainfall also likely during next 24 hours over KTCC districts!
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🌧️Heavy rains in Delta and South TN since morning to evening hours.
Karaikkal 175 mm
Nagai 152 mm
Vedaranyam 149 mm
Adiramapattinam 72 mm
Pudukottai 41 mm
Thuvakudi 40 mm
Tamil news channels cover only Chennai rains. Very sad!
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☔️Does Tamil Nadu likely to witness extreme rainfall activity between 25-30th November?
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🌀A Low Pressure Area has formed over SE Bay of Bengal today. It will intensify into a Depression in next 48 hours while moving towards Tamil Nadu.
An youtube video will be released by today evening!
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🌀Tropical Depression probability forecast from ECMWF between 20-25 December. It still a week to ten days away. Lets wait for its consistency.
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🌀Flash -
#NivarCyclone
could cross between Chennai and Pondy, close to Marakkanam/Kalpakkam by midnight of today. Will post a video explaining how its possible in next few hours!
#CycloneNivar
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Flash - Next 5 days, Cuddalore to Nagai, South Coastal and Western ghat districts need to be vigil!!
Cuddalore, Nagai, Mayiladuthurai, Thanjai, Tiruvarur, Pudukkottai, Tiruppur, Kovai, Nilagiri and entire South TN districts need to be vigil!!
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Magnificent inverted trough on 28th launching the strong easterly wave.. Absolutely a strong start!
28th to 01st witness superb spell of rain..
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☔️Rain should commence over Chennai and suburbs by tomorrow (20-11-2022) anytime after sunset!
🌀Depression to form tomorrow and move towards Chennai. While nearing the coast, it will weaken into a WML again.
I will update rainfall intensity districtwise by tomorrow!
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🌧️🌧️🌧️As the westerly wind surge along with high moisture, during the next 3 days, heavy rain likely over Nilagiri, Kovai ghats, Dindukkal, Theni, Thenkasi, Virudhunagar ghats, Nellai ghats and Kanyakumari districts.
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⚠️High Alert for Nagai, Ramnad, Tuticorin, Nellai, Kanyakumari districts for very heavy rain in next 48 hours.
🌧️🌧️🌧️Chennai, Kanchi, Tiruvallur, Cuddalore, Chidambaram, Sirkazhi, Thanjai, Tiruvarur, Pudukottai, Dindukkal Sivagangai, Virudhunagar districts to get heavy rain.
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⛈️May 2nd week North TN, South Karnataka, Telangana, South and North Andhrapradesh and entire East India to receive rainfall.
The westerly and easterly convergence to bring this rainfall activity between 7-10 May.
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🌧️Dense rain band approaching Chennai and suburbs. It might reach us in next couple for hours!
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👍GEFS forecasts a Cyclone on 09th Dec. However ECMWF yet to pick it. So the waiting game continues for consensus among models.
But, MJO and Rossby are favourable during the same time. The days for deficit recovery likely in terms of rainfall over ktcc and for entire state.
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🌧️Severe downpour going on in ktcc districts since early morning hours. The non stop rains to continue till tomorrow evening. Stay at home!
LLC visible in latest windy satellite image. Just pushing all convective clouds towards Coastal TN and SAP. It is to move WNW direction!
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🌀Low pressure formed in Andaman Sea has emerged into Bay of Bengal today evening. Crucial time begins. It is expected to intensify into a Well Marked Low and move westward and reach North Tamilnadu coast by 18th.
🌧️🌧️Hence 17-18 heavy rain likely over North Coastal TamilNadu!
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UAC over SW Bay getting embedded with SE Bay UAC. This SE Bay UAC should intensify into a Low by tomorrow night and move towards TN and reach SW Bay by 10th as Well Marked Low.
🌧️🌧️🌧️Heavy rain once again from midnight to tomorrow morning over Coastal TN.
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🌊Flash - Flooding rain likely over Delta districts. Heavy rain likely from Chennai to Nagai coastline from 28 Nov to Dec 02. The cause is Rossby wave effect, which brings strong trough in easterlies.
North & South Interior and South Coastal shall get moderate to heavy rain.
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☔South and West Tamilnadu shall receive rain from 08th December. A low pressure forming over SE Arabian Sea shall bring this rainfall activity over southern and western ghat districts of Tamilnadu. The intensity and districtwise forecast will be given later!
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☔️Rain to come back by 17th over KTCC districts. Then active NEM likely by 04th week of November and by first week of December.
Madden Julian Oscillation expected in Indian Ocean during 04th week of November!
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⛈️IMD GFS and ECMWF showing easterlies bringing widespread rainfall for coastal Tamilnadu by 14/15 December. Chennai to Thoothukudi stretch is filled with rainfall. Since its likely to be a wave, will be for one day either on 14 or 15 alone. No systems!
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First Impact!
#CycloneNivar
First weak rain bands enter Nagai, Karaikal, Tiruvarur, Airyalur districts!
Chennai, Kanchi, Tiruvallur, Chengalpet districts will start receiving rains anytime from now. Significant rainfall acitivity will pick from late night or early morning.
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#cyclonemandous
to hit close to Chennai on 09th night or 10th early morning. Red alert issued by IMD!
WML moved nearly 300 km wnw direction from 11.30 am to 17.30 pm ist. Located 930 km ese of Chennai today evening. Soon to intensify into a Depression. Tomorrow DD and CS!
1/2
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☔️Flash - Latest ECMWF forecasts above normal rainfall for Tamil Nadu, Andhrapradesh and Telangana during Oct, Nov and Dec 2022 season!
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🌀GFS and ECMWF aligned in forecasting upcoming low pressure in bay. However, gfs pushing it to Chennai while ecmwf pushing it to gom. Then gfs intensifying it to D or DD, ecmwf little weaker than that. Hence, torrential downpour likely from 10th nov over Tamil Nadu!
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🌀Good News - couple of operational models bringing a weak system, that is first system of the season towards North Tamil Nadu.
ECMWF and GFS bringing as strong low by 25th Nov.
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Is it just another Dec 1 2015?
Once again all clouds heading to Tambaram..
Massive convergence and divergence. Take extra care North TN. Heavy rain will continue throughout night!!
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⛈️Severe downpour for the past one hour in and around Tambaram. Best spell of the season. Next 5 days we have very good chance for very heavy rainfall along coastal areas. Please be cautious!!
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This CDO has increased intensity sharply across the Chennai City and Suburbs for the past half an hour!
@shanpati
@weathrcast
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⛈️Conditions looking positive for first swm thundershowers for Chennai and Suburb districts anyday between Jun 4-6. June 5 looks very apt, as convergence and wind flow looks favourable. As we get closer to those days, we will get more clarity on which day we may receive rain.
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🌧️🌧️🌧️Watchout South Andhrapradesh, especially coastal areas likely to receive heavy rainfall from 24-26 July!!
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#CycloneNivar
landfall near Pondicherry by tomorrow evening or night as Very Severe Cyclone. Chennai landfall ruled out. There were lots of speculations across social media, is to be put to rest!
District level forecast:
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⛈️As per ECMWF forecast the 3rd week of June looks interesting for North Coastal Tamilnadu, Andhrapradesh and Telangana. Hope for regular thunderstorms during 17-24 June!
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🌀Flash - Two more systems likely to target Tamil Nadu.
Next one forming by 28th Nov.
One more forming by 03rd Dec.
Intensity and direction under watch.
🌀One more system forming by 28th nov over SE Bay of Bengal. Which is going to target Tamil Nadu by 01st or 02nd Dec. The intensity and direction need to be analysed based the available parameters.
#NivarCycloneUpdates
#CycloneNivarUpdate
#ChembarambakkamLake
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☔Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala and over Kanyakumari district in Tamilnadu today as per IMD.
My question is, the westerly wind from 800-700 hpa not turned completely into westerly. The dynamics of swm onset is surface to 600 hpa should turn wnw, its interesting!
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☔️Southwest Monsoon onset date over Kerala is nearing. The cross equatorial flow and off shore trough to develop around 26-27.
The upper level easterly jet likely to hit Kerala latitude from 27th.
🌧️🌧️By 29/30 rainfall to become heavy, as Madagascar High is emerging!
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