Here is the #LaNina rainfall composite plot for winter/DJF so this could be used as seasonal forecast guide as well along with dynamical models forecast for JFM!! DC @NWSCPC

#LaNina territory SE Indian ocean continues to remain active.. Now MJO moving into phase 7,8 in the coming weeks & this would make MJO suppression to take position over IO/MTC & cause destructive interference with LaNina state.. would be interesting to see this battle on Which one would dominate the atmosphere? Let's wait & see.. #MJO #Indianocean #Cyclone #Eumetsat Dc @Windycom @eumetsat

@mjdoesrandomshi @NWSCPC @NOAA Haven't seen the recent Pacific oceanic state especially the sub surface so not sure... There maybe temporary fluctuations in the surface/Sub surface in response to MJO signal in Western hemisphere

Condition this morning was not as bad as yesterday .. Visibility was bit okie ... #Chennai #Winter #

Last 90 days (Nov-Dec-Jan) OLR anomaly from @NOAA #LaNina #MJO #Australia #SriLanka #Indonesia #India #Malaysia #Borneo

@UmerAmi63340592 @TropicalTidbits @Windycom LaNina more cold,more dry conditions..

First proper wintery feel in #Chennai in this season!! Moisture from Bay condensed at near surface layer/ lower level to droplets as a result of strong inversion in the lower troposphere Though it's not that cold, Misty/foggy conditions offered wintery conditions.. #Winter #TamilNadu #MJO #LaNina #foggymorning #India

Spike in daytime temperature over East coastal India adj Southern india might be associated with these 2 cyclones that are spinning over the SE Indian ocean. These 2 systems seen causing enhanced sinking motion thereby amplifying the seasonal high pressure area. Generally active SE Indian ocean known to cause suppression over India by altering the background upper level flow. Sat image @Windycom #LaNina #India #AndhraPradesh #Odisha #TamilNadu #Chennai #Puducherry

Partly cloudy morning at ECR!!! #Mahabalipuram #Cumulus

SE Asia is strongly under #LaNina grip!!! Parts of #Malaysia witnessing extreme floods!!! #Floods #Malaysia #Malaysiafloods

Moisture gradually seen moving into SW Bay adj TN during the last 24hrs.. Scattered/Moderate rain possibilities exist for parts of south coastal TN, west interior TN /Delta -PDC & Kerala . Isolated rains may occur over parts of North TN Sat image DC @eumetsat #LaNina #MJO #SriLanka #Maldives #Indianocean #TamilNadu

Cycir lies south-southeast of #SriLanka inside the broad EQ trough . Moisture flow expected to gain latitude to affect #SriLanka & Southern peninsular India in the coming days . Approaching mid lat westerly systems expected to influence the winds as well... Sat image @Windycom @eumetsat #TNRains #MJO #LaNina #Rainupdate #Chennai #ChennaiRains #Weatherupdate #Update #Winter

#LaNina modified equatorial westerlies over Indian ocean on a monthly & seasonal time scale!! dc @NOAA @NWSCPC #Indianocean #MJO #SriLanka #Maldives #India #ENSO

Indian ocean EQ trough continues to be active!! dc @eumetsat #MJO #LaNina #Maldives #SriLanka #Maldivesrains #SriLankarains #WeatherUpdate #TamilNadu #TNRains

Am not sure whether we have any objective criteria for NEM withdrawal over Southern India & no idea on what basis NE Monsoon cessation is declared. Just with rainfall data or any other variables considered ?? If it is just rains, we see these kind of rains i mean Easterly rains or rains due to Westerly-easterly systems interaction , these events happens till the month of April so we can't say it as Monsoon, right?. NEM rains are generally periodic in nature, we see heavy rains for a week &then it gradually subsides leading to break like conditions.. Again rain causing low pressure disturbances/ easterly wave appears after a period of 5 - 7 days to cause heavy rains over the monsoon region. So monsoon rains are periodic, ITCZ oriented.. Once we see prolonged break after Mid-Dec or late Dec over Northern TN, we can assume monsoon getting wrapped up. Southern TN /kerala usually see rains extending for 2-3 weeks further when compared with Northern TN . El Nino conditions in the pacific more often leads to early withdrawal & lanina favors extended monsoon into Jan... Haven't seen any monsoon season extending after early /mid Jan.. Anyhow be prepared !!! abnormal high temperature ,high humidity would favor rains in the coming days..!!

Though these floods are turning common these days still i remember 2010-2011 #LaNina event that caused massive floods over parts of S-SE Asia & S.America . #Brazil #SriLanka #Thailand had a prolonged rainy season & suffered a huge floods!! 2010-2011 Thailand floods still remains as one of the costliest flood event on global record. This season is also seen inline with La-Nina event!! .. Hope people bounce back from this tough times..

Another fresh episode of Winter Rains Conditions seen priming for another rain wave over southern peninsular India as models shows a Bay disturbance in the form of Cyclonic circulation close to #sriLanka seen pushing moist easterlies into TN-PDC-kerala from 29/30th Jan. Also in the northern peninsular India & central India, conditions seen favoring for new episode of Westerlies -easterly systems interaction by early feb .. More detailed updates soon in the next post.. Farming community may have to take enough precautions to tackle these unseasonal winter rains.. #LaNina #SriLanka #TamilNadu #Chennai #Kerala #Pduucherry #Karnataka #Maharashtra DC @TropicalTidbits @ECMWF

Parts of #SriLanka continues to be under rain clouds for the last several days .. In the southern peninsular India, Light isolated rains may occur at one or two places of South Coastal TN stretch & Western Ghats section... Here is a rough estimate of 10 days rainfall accumulated . DC @JMA_kishou @Windycom #SriLanka #LaNina #MJO #HeavyRains #RainUpdate

@NeerajEmanuel @Windycom @eumetsat not sure.. we may have to wait until March,april to see climate models forecast in foreseeing the pacific conditions during summer monsoon & winter monsoon..