PurelyCanadaDurum
@PCFDurum
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We know Durum. DM for pricing.
Lajord
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The biggest difference between 2021 and 2023- Italy only needed 300K that year. This year they need over 1MMT from Canada. Will get very interesting.
Canada durum wheat
historical area seeded, average yield, production
First simulation of 3 yields and 2023 production scenario
If 20bu/ac (same as 2021)➡️3.284.318t✅
If 25bu/ac➡️4.105.397t✅
If 30bu/ac➡️4.926.477t⁉️🙄
2022➡️5.443.476t
2021➡️3.032.490t
#durumwheat
#drought23
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This is Spring Wheat below, but HVK in Durum is a funny story. Algeria wants 60%, Tunisia wants 70%, Morocco requires 80%. US Mills want 85%. Italy will take whatever is cheapest with good Protein.
(1/2) This year, we're receiving some wheat samples that are being downgraded for starchy or non-vitreous kernels. This happens when the minimum hard vitreous kernel tolerance isn't being met. Learn more about HVK as a wheat grading factor:
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Single biggest story in Durum
Right now outside of the Canadian Crop size is the Turkey durum sales to Italy. Could have a substantial impact.
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SK Crop report: Durum 1% Excellent, 15% Good, 34% Fair, 28% Poor and 23% very poor.
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Rumblings of an Algeria Durum tender tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
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Canadian Cereal Crops on average are 29% behind normal. Yes the Durum crop could range between 6.5-7.0MMT- But won't be long until the market is talking about quality over quantity.
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Appears final 🇮🇹 figure 4.1MMT with quality issues-they are the best millers in the world-they can make a lot work.We still est. imports at 2MMT. Of which, 1MMT from other origins and 1MMT from 🇨🇦. Will we have enough for everyone ? Global demand rationing will be in full force.
#Italy
🇮🇹
@italmopa_mugnai
estimates total
#durum
🌾 production to be around 4.15 Mio t🚜but confirms severe quality concerns, labeling as "unsatisfying" both test weight and protein content⬇️
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We had a Durum Truck unload at 19.3% protein. Might be a record. Weight good too at 61 Lbs.
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We have arrived in Seville 🇪🇸 for the Andalusian Commodities Exchange. The premier Durum conference of the year.
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Good chance we will see a Tunisia Durum tender next week for 4 cargoes Oct/Nov. Canadian Durum should not be at play with current levels elsewhere. They last purchased 75K August 30th around $428/MT USD.
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Stats can prints a Durum production number of 2.65MMT. Wowzer.
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This just in. Algeria will tender for durum this week. Last tender was early October for Nov Dec at a price of around $500 CIF. This tender will be for shipping last half Dec first half Jan.
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Should see the much anticipated Algerian Durum tender next week. Also, December 4, updated Stats Can production report. 4.1MMT is the average trade estimate from 14 traders and analysts for Durum.
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We appreciate all of our 1100+ followers. We will continue to bring you important Durum information that is generally not easy to find. We always have a bid- on Shortlines, FOB Farm and into Lajord. DM us anytime for pricing and/or to be added to our updated text list.
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Yield estimate for durum is 41.4 bu/acre vs est. 26.5 bu/acre a year ago after Day 1 of the ND Wheat tour.
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Two Durum tenders for Crop Show Week. Tunisia last tendered December 11 for January shipment-Traded at $437 CIF. Algeria last tendered for Jan Feb on Dec 5. Panamaxs traded $455, Handys $465. Ocean freight has come down, Dollar has gotten stronger.
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Tomorrow (Aug 29) we will get the Stats Canada production estimates from Satellite imagery taken at the end of July. Reuters polls from analysts guesses range from 3.7 to 5.3MMT. The August figures printed have been low VS final 8 of the last 10 years.
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Tunisia is tendering to purchase 50k of Durum for shipment April 25-May 20. They last purchased February 7th at a CIF price of $414.
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OAIC (Algeria) is tendering for Durum. They must be hungry as they are looking for May AND June. Mexico new crop will be in play.
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Good chance we see an Algeria durum tender before the new year.
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Hardly a change in the Durum production number from the Sep
stats can. 4.045 MMT.
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8 companies offered on the Tunisia Durum Tender. Offers ranged from $528 to $595 CIF. 100K sold $528- $534range. Up from the last tender of $503. Currency, higher freight and tight logistics played into the increase. Works back to low $14s if Canadian on avg but many variables
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Jan and Full Feb shipment. They last purchased at the end of August. Cheapest non Canadian origin was estimated to be around $460 CIF. Canadian was around $490 CIF. Ocean freight has firmed last week. Canadian dollar also. Going to be very interesting to hear CWAD offers.
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Hearing around $385-$387 CIF basis Panamax vessel- Mainly Mexican. Volumes unknown right now. Details always difficult to get. This is down over $25/mt from their last Mexican purchases in April. If it had to be Canadian, it would be low $10s/bushel. Tunisia tomorrow.
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US intends to plant 2.028M acres of durum, up from 1.68 last year. An increase of 21%.
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Durum market has lost $45/MT USD since last week. You won't see that on a futures chart anywhere. This crop however is not out of the woods yet. It will become as much or more about quality as quantity.
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Keep an eye out for Tunisia and Algeria to return to the durum market next week via government tender. Not a given, but a good chance. Should be 350K Mexican left to export, give or take.
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We would guess Canadian $580 CIF and Mexico $50-$60 cheaper. Likely see them back in a couple weeks. Importer affordability is real. Might take some more juggling financially to pay these levels. 2021 we saw them take 400k less than normal.
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Italy buying 500K from Canada Vs 1MMT could be the difference between single and double digit durum pricing in the coming campaign.
Italian durum wheat crop forecast seen at 4,13 millions tonnes according to CREA at Durum Days today in Foggia, Italy
#durum
#durumwheat
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Top 5 homes of Canadian Durum exports as of end of February for this crop year:
1- Italy 987K
2- Algeria 538K
3- Morocco 480K
4- USA 370K
5- Tunisia 272K
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Final numbers are in and an Italian crop size of 3.3MMT, smaller than average. Italian durum currently priced higher than Canadian in Italy.
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Always more difficult to get information from Algerian tenders (not public like Tunisia) but sounding like 250k traded around $500 USD CIF average price. Likely to be mainly Canadian with a splash of US. Slightly less than Tunisia. Around $13 to a Canadian Farmer.
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Italy narrowly edged out Algeria for top spot for Canadas durum last crop year:
1. Italy 1.209 MMT
2. Algeria 1.208MMT
3. Morocco 857K
4. USA 504K
5. Tunisia 325K
Total exports were 5.072MMT.
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We are estimating 100K Mexican at $413
We are estimating 200K Canadian (Could be more) at a range of $422-$430- Panamax VS Handy sizes. Hence the reason country bids have dipped to $12 or below.
Tender to continue tomorrow but believe OAIC today purchased Mexican around $413-$415 CIF. Perhaps some Canadian moves tomorrow. If CWAD was to move at this level- Prices in country would dip to the $11.50 level.
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Tunisia 75K. Algeria potentially 300k+? Morocco needs 120K prior to May arrival. This should wipe out the Canadian visible stock length. Where is replacement? $17 $18 $20+?
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And Voila. Almost like we called it. Jan Feb shipment. 100K. Last tender average price was $530 CIF. This is a public tender so we will see offers and purchase figures.
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We expect to see a Tunisia Durum Tender next week for 100K. Algeria may not be far behind.
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As we have stated before-Always difficult to get the full picture on OAIC tenders. Hearing they bought over 400K. $455-$470 range depending on vessel size. Works back to $12.40-$12.60 CAD Farmer- Depending on where location is. USA, MX, Aussie and CWAD were said to be purchased.
Jan and Full Feb shipment. They last purchased at the end of August. Cheapest non Canadian origin was estimated to be around $460 CIF. Canadian was around $490 CIF. Ocean freight has firmed last week. Canadian dollar also. Going to be very interesting to hear CWAD offers.
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SK Crop Report has taken the average Durum yield from 23 BPA to 33 BPA in this weeks report. Curios to its accuracy as it appears they used a simple average VS a weighted average.
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With many of the US Durum mills finding coverage until Christmas, US grower bids have sunk $1.00/BU this week. Perhaps they become a player in the Algeria tender- which we expect to see next week.
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Tender cancelled on too low of offers
TMO Tender for 150Kt of
#Durumwheat
.
Actual best offers:
- Iskenderun: CASILLO 327 USD FOB for 50 KT
- Mersin: CASILLO 270 USD FOB for 50 KT
- Mersin/Tasucu (25 KT shipments only) : VITERRA: 270.25 USD
👉Will they keep the tender open, given the low price levels?
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Tender to continue tomorrow but believe OAIC today purchased Mexican around $413-$415 CIF. Perhaps some Canadian moves tomorrow. If CWAD was to move at this level- Prices in country would dip to the $11.50 level.
Last tender on March 8th for April shipment was a CIF Price of $442 for Panamax and $449 for Handy size. Expect this to be lower with Mex involved.
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USDA Durum Production # comes in at 64 Million Bushels. 1.74MMT. Down from the August of 74 M Bushels.
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This would work back to sub $12 Canadian Farmer. It was never going to be Canadian. Kazak/Russian/Turkish much cheaper. Algeria should buy Mexican, US or Canadian or some combination. Following closely today.
Casillo gets the Tunisia Business at average price of $428. Must be Turkish.
Should have Algeria later today. It is not public like below.
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Hearing Mexican sold to Algeria around $395 CIF for Panamax and Handy size $10 higher. Not hearing any Canadian traded- but it’s possible a small tonnage did.
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1.47MMT in the US for Durum VS 1.74 last year.
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At the end of Nov. (Latest CGC Data available) CDN Durum export top 5 is.....
1- Algeria (216K) 171K Last Year
2- Morocco (209K) 198K Last Year
3- Italy (197K) 541K Last Year
4- USA (124K) 179K Last Year
5- Japan (80K) (51K Last Year)
Italy is the real issue for CWAD exports
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A good Turkish Durum update….
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At the end of January, the top 5 buyers of Canadian Durum:
1- Morocco 359K
2- Algeria 342K
3- Italy 269K
4-USA 195K
5-Japan 117K
Of this list only Morocco and Japan are up from same time last year.
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Tender results are in. $20/MT USD cheaper than mid December. Would be in the low $13/BU to a farmer.
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SK Harvest report has durum at 90% combined. Also notes 80% is in the top two grades. This would be consistent with what we are seeing at our SE elevator.
Overall SK harvest is at 64%, up from 42% last week and ahead of the 5 year average of 57%.
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Figure comes in at 3.695MMT, below analyst estimates.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) Stats Can will release stocks of Canadian Grain as of Dec 31, 2022. Average trade estimates for Durum are 3.9MMT, lowest being 3.7 and highest being 4.0. Last year (Drought year) we saw 2.5MMT.
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World Durum importers will need protein this year. Canada will be the savior. At what cost? That is the billion dollar question
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We are excited to be attending the Andalusian Commodity Exchange next week in Seville, Spain. This is the largest gathering of the global durum trade there is.
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CWAD is currently around $6.00/BU more than CWRS. A spread to keep an eye on for sure.
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Fantastic improvement but June and July moisture will be key. That is what we missed the last few years in Durum areas.
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Who is attending the Durum Summit next week in Swift Current? We always look forward to these Durum events!
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Durum quality is reported at 32 per cent 1 CW, 46 per cent 2 CW and 22 per cent 3 CW. Almost 80% for the top two grades.
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Here is a breakdown of where durum is grown in the US on their estimated acres:
Arizona 60,000
California 30,000
Idaho 5,000
Montana 840,000
North Dakota 980,000
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Interesting it’s June shipment. Let’s hope they need Durum before that.
As for Tunisia- should see Durum tender this week.
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Casillo gets the Tunisia Business at average price of $428. Must be Turkish.
Should have Algeria later today. It is not public like below.
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A good example of importer affordability. Going to need a much larger loan when they buy Durum. Tunisia is a key Durum customer.
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Great visit to Spain. Crop is poor. 4-500k max. 1/2 normal.Ugly drought and more heat coming.Not a big mover on the world durum stage anyway. They will be a net importer this year. Crop in Italy is getting bigger.That’s more
Important and more reason for drop in CWAD prices.
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Fantastic presentation by Jaume Mas. Over 250 in attendance. Great turn out. Durum is alive and well in Canada.
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Algeria tender will be next up on the demand list for Canadian Durum. They need to buy for March. Our guess is that is next week as we flip the Calendar to Feb. But that is just a guess.
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Tunisia tendering for Durum for March April. Can Canadian finally work?
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Possible we see a Tunisia Durum tender this week. Following closely. Could be 2-4 cargoes. Not large quantities.
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It is strange to see Tunisia come in for one cargo but it is believed to be for replacement of a rejected (For quality) cargo.
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Beautiful morning at Lajord. Busy week of durum shipping. Forecast looks pleasant.
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After Tunisia many asking where we go from here. A 75k tender was not to be a market mover. All eyes await the big demand- Algeria. They should tender in February for March and or April. Big tonnage will be important. USA, Italy, Morocco and Tunisia will also need to buy.
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SK Crop Report shows 88% of durum grading in the top two grades.
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We estimate, although early, we may see an Italian durum crop under 4MMT, maybe closer to 3.6-3.8. They will need to import 2 MMT next campaign. 1-1.5 could be Canadian. Will be good to have them back as a top customer.
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Just like last year during the European Commodities Exchange, Tunisia is tendering while we are all here in Poland. 75K for Nov Shipment. Last tender in late August went around $429 USD CIF. Don’t see a chance this will be Canadian origin.
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Algeria purchases around $450 Panamax, $463-$465 Handy size. Some Mexican and Aussie but mainly Canadian. $12-$12.50 range depending on location and logistics. Total tonnage hard to find out.
Two Durum tenders for Crop Show Week. Tunisia last tendered December 11 for January shipment-Traded at $437 CIF. Algeria last tendered for Jan Feb on Dec 5. Panamaxs traded $455, Handys $465. Ocean freight has come down, Dollar has gotten stronger.
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Thru the first 7 weeks Canada has exported 223k of Durum vs the 5 year average of 428k.
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Through GW 20 (Dec 17), Farmers have delivered 1.573MMT of Durum (2.350 Last Year). Exports are 1.161MMT (1.844 last year). Visible stocks are 548K (772K last year).
Through GW 19 (Dec 10), Farmers have delivered 1.513MMT of Durum (2.223 Last Year). Exports are 1.118MMT (1.725 last year). Visible stocks are 509K (712K last year). Canada is on pace to export an underwhelming 3MMT.
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Stats Can updates durum acres to 6.006 Million, down 218K from April report but up 8.6% from last year.
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A bullish durum number if believed by trade.
🇨🇦 Production of Principal Field Crops, Final Report released today by
@StatCan_eng
#durumwheat
#bl
édur
#granoduro
#wheat
#rapeseed
#canola
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48% of Durum was exported from West Coast. 11% from Thunder Bay. 32% from St Lawrence. Balance Rail direct.
Italy narrowly edged out Algeria for top spot for Canadas durum last crop year:
1. Italy 1.209 MMT
2. Algeria 1.208MMT
3. Morocco 857K
4. USA 504K
5. Tunisia 325K
Total exports were 5.072MMT.
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Last year we saw Algeria tender August 3rd. (They did cancel due to high prices.) I suspect we see them very soon for Aug Sep or Sep Oct shipment.
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