River Ouse York Predictor Mouse
@OuseYork
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602
Following
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Sensible, reliable predictions for the River Ouse. No media sensationalising. I like to try and be accurate using facts, trends and experience. Also like cheese
York
Joined February 2020
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That's it from me for now, back tweeting when back above 2 metres. Likely a decent gap here.
Been a long stint of high water, am pleased prediction accuracy has improved since Xmas (albeit timing of the last peak got disjointed). Thanks for the new follows and interactions 😀🐁
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Will give a few updates on the way down as the Ouse falls, but it appears we're in for a bit of respite in the floods after that. Thank you for the likes and interactions....I'm sure there will be more floods to get my whiskers into later in the winter 🐭😀
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It's that time of year again, have got my tree up. Chris Mouse is sitting proudly on the top again. He was very naughty last year and ate all of my Edam! Let's hope he's a bit better behaved this time 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 4.30 metres and creeping upwards. This last surge has took both me and the Environment Agency predictor by surprise a little but there's simply less space for the water to escape downstream. We're only rising very slowly now though, almost there 🐁
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We're almost at the peak and there is a lovely settled spell of weather coming up. The only way is down after day....thankfully 😀🐭
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Flooding so far this winter season (Since Oct 1st):
Peaks Over 2 Metres: 11
Highest Peak: 4.33 Metres
Average Peak: 3.35 Metres
🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.04 metres and falling slowly, this flood has now come to a close! I'll be back when the river looks like hitting above 2 metres again 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 0.73 metres and rising slowly. Heavy rain in the dales now. I'm expecting Ouse levels to rise to 3.5 metres+ by Tuesday 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.73 metres, creeping up. Rain in the Ouse catchment now (moderate to heavy in the hills). I'm predicting levels continue rising slowly, reaching 4.10-4.40 metres on Wed and Thu. I've done a (very rough!) edit to the EA graph which may prove more accurate 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 4.04 metres and rising slowly. This morning I'll be working on the peak prediction range, posting that before midday. We'll start with a 30cm range and tighten it
For now, this will NOT be a big flood and levels will NOT get above 4.7 metres 🙂🐭
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We're not going to be basking in glorious spring sunshine....but the weather is turning slightly drier now.
Looking more positive for the Ouse in the 7 days ahead 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 1.21 metres and rising steadily. Levels will be above 3.5 metres during Tuesday and likely to peak over 4 metres. More updates to follow tomorrow morning when the rain has settled in, including a more concise peak prediction 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.73 metres, steadying off for a bit before rising again. I'm predicting a peak, with levels reaching 4.10-4.40 metres later on Wednesday and early Thursday 🐭
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River Ouse in York of 4.07 metres and falling slowly at the moment. More rain in North Yorkshire today, but it hasn't been enough to make things any worse. I'm predicting levels to stay close to 4 metres throughout Monday. Happy new year all! 😀🐭
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We're seeing some very high levels, but not excessive on the tributaries upstream. A peak of 3.5+ metres on Wednesday looks likely. Will try post a more exact peak prediction late this evening or early tomorrow morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 2.43 metres and steady. Rising slowly later this evening.
A peak of 3.5+ metres looks very likely on Thursday eve. Further updates later this eve, working towards a peak prediction 🙂🐭
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River Ouse in York at 1.31 metres and rising steadily. Levels look likely to hit 3.5+ metres later tomorrow. More updates to follow as the rain sinks in upstream 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 4.13 metres and rising very slowly. I'm predicting a peak of 4.15-4.26 metres in the early hours of Tuesday morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.01 metres and rising quickly. Predicting a peak (initially) of 4.10-4.40 metres on Tuesday. More rain tomorrow, will have a look at that in more detail this evening 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 4.14 metres and creeping up extremely slowly now...we are close to the peak. Having dodged the over night rain we will peak later today.
Another 1-4cm to go, almost there! 🙂🐭
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Happy new year to all mouse followers and wish you the best for 2023. New year's resolutions, accurate predictions and plenty of cheese. That'll do nicely 🤣🐁🧀
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River Ouse in York at 1.14 metres and rising steadily. I'm sure you can already tell but heavy rain is now hitting. Levels of 3 metres+ look likely later on Saturday 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.02 metres and falling slowly....the good news is this evening's rainfall was both further south and lighter than forecast. We're looking safe to finally return to normal winter levels over the couple of days 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.88 metres and falling steadily now. Levels expected to be around 3.50 metres by midnight 🐁
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Been a long way up to the summit and a tricky flood to predict. Going to be a very slow, gradual fall for the rest of the day for the River Ouse, eventually falling below 4.5 metres. For now, time to rest my paws and enjoy some Edam 😀🐭🧀
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After this peak, it's going to be a long steady fall lasting well into next week.
Good to see a change away from this unsettled weather 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 1.95 metres and rising slowly. I'm predicting a peak on Wednesday morning with levels likely to hit 3.5 metres+.
Next update is tomorrow (Tuesday) morning when I'll post a more concise peak prediction 🙂🐁
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River Ouse in York at 2.34 metres and rising quickly. I'm predicting a peak of 3.50-3.80 metres on Wednesday afternoon 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 4.01 metres and rising very slowly now. I'm predicting levels to settle near 4.20 metres later today 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.22 metres and steady. More rain has fallen overnight....and that's going to mean another rise. I'm predicting a peak of 3.50-3.80 metres on Monday evening 🐭
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I see newspapers/news websites are keen to get the "record flood ever" story out again....it's funny how I can't see any record heights on the Ure, Swale or Nidd upstream. It's almost like they're making up extra water to sell papers or get website clicks
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River Ouse in York at 2.61 metres, now falling steadily. Expecting levels to fall below 2 metres during Wednesday 🙂🐭
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A reasonable sized Autumn flood, crept up 1cm to 3.64 metres to be precise! At least we avoided going over 4 metres. The weather next week doesn't exactly look settled but there isn't much heavy rain about. A bit of a lull in floods again once the river level has fallen
#york
🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.63 metres and peaked! 🎉🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.62 metres and falling steadily. Levels back below 2 metres again during Monday 😀🐁
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River Ouse in York at 4.22 metres and falling very slowly. Another band of rain hitting the catchment area this evening is keeping levels high. Expecting levels to stay steady near 4.20 metres overnight 🐭😀
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River Ouse in York at 3.65 metres and creeping up very slowly. Now almost at the peak, last few centimetres. Just a little mouse sized push and it will peak this afternoon 😀
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River Ouse in York at 4.11 metres and fairly steady. Not expecting much movement today again, although it looks safe that we're over the worst of this flood. I'm expecting levels at the end of the day (and year!) to be near 4.00 metres 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.94 metres and rising very slowly. I'm expecting levels to stay near 4.00 metres throughout today and Wednesday with a mini-peak around 4.10 metres on Wednesday morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 4.28 metres and falling slowly today, levels back towards 4 metres by midnight 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.91 metres and rising steadily. I'm expecting levels to reach 4.10-4.40 metres later this evening and throughout Thursday 😀🐭
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This flood has plenty of legs! Took me by surprise a bit that extra momentum and we've snuck above 4 metres, but we've reached a peak at least 😀
A very slow fall tomorrow morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 2.17 metres and rising slow to steady. Rain persisting now, I'm expecting levels to hit 2.5 metres once more tomorrow morning, ending with a peak of 2.75 metres+ on Monday morning. More exact prediction height for the peak will be posted in the morning 🐭😀
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River Ouse in York at 3.30 metres and rising...we're getting there, albeit a little slower than I first thought. I'm predicting a peak of 4.10-4.40 metres on Wednesday 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.59 metres and rising fairly fast. I'm predicting an initial peak of 4.10-4.40 metres on Tuesday. There is more rain to keep an eye on during Tuesday though, which is concerning for later in the week. Plenty more updates coming throughout today 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 1.48 metres and falling slowly. Levels are rising upstream from last night's rain, but it wasn't too heavy.
I'm not expecting the Ouse back above 2 metres for a while now so a break from tweeting and floods. Now time to start that Red Leicester 😃🐭🧀
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This is now the highest flood of the present flooding season, overtaking the peak on the 15th of November which peaked at 4.14 metres 🐭🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.35 metres and falling steadily, back below two metres on Monday. More rain is coming though, the Ouse has potential to hit 3.5 metres+ again on Wednseday. Updates to follow tomorrow 🐭
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A long unsettled spell ahead, so likely to be plenty of peaks to predict over the next fortnight....🐭
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This rain is heavy but fast moving at least! It's likely it'll be enough to push levels to 3 metres+ tomorrow.
Will update more on this in the morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 1.89 metres and rising. A bit of surface rain and high tide at Naburn is helping to push it up. It'll slow down soon and peak in the early hours of Monday. Looks slightly higher than I first thought but nothing major I'm expecting a peak around 2 metres 🐭
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Heavy rain is clearing now. Sadly, there's a chance of this flood breaking above 5 metres 😲 A little early to tell and do remember the Environment Agency prediction comes from a computer! Lots to take in with this flood but will post a prediction range between 11pm and midnight
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River Ouse in York at 3.42 metres and falling again now. Levels will be back near 3 metres by midnight 🙂🐁
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River Ouse in York at 2.73 metres and rising. I'm predicting a peak of 3.50-3.80 metres tomorrow morning 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 4.13 metres and falling slowly, back below 4 metres later today 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 0.90 metres and rising slowly. Plenty of rain in the hills today and levels look likely to hit 2.5 metres+ later on Thursday. Next update in the morning, including a concise flood prediction 🐭
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We look flood free this festive period....for the moment.
Wednesday's rain looks likely to cause flooding later next week, but we can have a look at that after Christmas.
Wish you all a Merry Christmas 🙂🐭🐾
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River Ouse in York at 4.20 metres and steady. Levels falling back very slowly later today 🐭
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At the moment, Tuesday's rain is concerning me and puts us at risk of a larger flood than what we've seen recently. I'll update about both this and the peak I've already predicted tomorrow 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.12 metres and falling steadily. Will be back below 2.5 metres tomorrow 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.34 metres and rising steadily. This current heavy batch of rain in the hills is helping keep the momentum going....which is why I'm currently slightly higher than the EA prediction and predicting a peak of 3.90-4.20 metres tomorrow morning 🐁
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Today's rain shouldn't cause any new peaks for the Ouse but it will slow the fall.
Here's a generalisation of expected heights for next few days.
Now: 3.79 metres
Midnight: 3.4-3.6 metres
Thursday: range of 3.0-3.5 metres, falling
Friday: range of 2.5-3.0 metres, falling
🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.17 metres, falling steadily back below 3 metres overnight 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.26 metres and creeping up very slowly now. Not much more distance left to the peak now but it'll take a while to reach it. I'm expecting levels to reach around 3.40 metres during Friday 🐭
A slow fall for the Ouse at the weekend with the nicer forecast.
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River Ouse in York at 0.17 metres and steady.
I've not tweeted for a while, that's because we haven't had any floods.....this looks set to continue despite bits and pieces of rain.
Enjoying the summer 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.98 metres and rising very slowly 🦥 Next batch of rain is hitting the Dales at the moment. I'm predicting a peak of 4.03-4.25 metres on Tuesday 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.17 metres and rising steadily. I'm predicting a peak of 3.90-4.20 metres on Friday morning 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 4.30 metres and falling very slowly... expecting levels around 4.25 metres throughout the day 🐭
More rain in the forecast for today but levels are looking nicely lower upstream at least 😀
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Slightly above my estimated range but we are failing nicely now. River Ouse in York at 2.99 metres and falling slowly today 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 1.34 metres and rising steadily. Moderate rain today means a smaller flood and I'm expecting levels to reach slightly over 2.50 metres during Thursday 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 4.09 metres and creeping upwards, I'm predicting a mini-peak of 4.18 metres on Wednesday with levels staying just above 4 metres all day 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 1.85 metres, rising steadily. I'm predicting an initial peak on Wed with potential to hit 3+ metres (will post a concise peak prediction for this tomorrow).
There looks like also being a secondary peak on Sat....but will focus on that later in the week 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.23 metres and rising slowly. It's a slow journey to a peak later in the week with more rain forecast overnight. I'm expecting levels of 3 metres+ later on Thursday 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.85 metres and falling slowly. A bit more rainwater is now coming down from the hills, but it'll only cause a very small blip for the Ouse on its way down. Expecting levels to stay pretty steady overnight 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 0.52 metres and rising slowly (at the moment, will speed up a lot). Levels of 2.5+ metres are very likely on Tues, with a peak early Wed morning or late Tues evening.
Will post a peak height prediction later this evening 🐭
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Rainy days recently, but we're starting from a low river level in York and it's September. Just a matter of watching and taking it as it comes at the moment...will start tweeting more if we get to a time when it's clear 2 metres will be broken 😀🐁
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Looking at river heights based on the current high water level and the previous tweet about rainfall, that works out as:
A peak on Thursday evening, Ouse levels in York very likely to hit 3.5 metres+, some potential to sneak over 4 metres just. Will update again tomorrow 🐭
2/2
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River Ouse in York at 4.56 metres and rising very slowly, not much left now, near to the peak. I'm expecting that just before midday 😀🐁
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Great news! Divers have found a giant plug at the bottom of the River Ouse. They'll be able to pull this after heavy rain in future to prevent any more flooding
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River Ouse in York at 2.73 metres and falling steadily, back below 2.50 metres today 🐁
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There's some heavy rain in the hills at the moment....I'm predicting a flood, updates to follow later this evening when the rain sinks in s bit 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 1.96 metres and rising quickly. I'm predicting a peak of 3.90-4.20 metres on Friday morning (29th). More updates tomorrow 😀🐁
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It's now clear (4.6m) will be reached. Today I'm focusing on making sure the top end (4.9m) is accurate. The Ure, Nidd and Swale are all at their peak and level where they join the Ouse. I'm confident that the Ouse in York will not rise over 4.9 metres but will keep monitoring 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 0.93 metres and rising slowly. Gradual snow melt and rain combining here. It's going to be a long slow rise towards another peak. I'm expecting levels to reach 3 metres+ later in the week. More updates tomorrow 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.56 metres and relatively steady for the rest of today and overnight. A settled weekend ahead and I'm expecting Ouse levels to start falling again later on Saturday 🐭
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The Ouse seems to be slowing in York now, and is starting to fall behind the Environment Agency prediction dotted line so looks on target. I have drawn a (rough!!) green line with what I expect to happen to meet my prediction. The slight drop being when Clifton Ings lets water in
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A bit of rain forecast overnight. Environment Agency are predicting a peak of 2.65 metres on Monday. This rain looks fairly heavy but fast moving and I can't see the River Ouse in York getting above 2 metres here 🐭🐁😃
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River Ouse in York at 4.18 metres and now rising very slowly. Looks like sneaking up a few more centimetres but we're close to the peak. More rain forecast tomorrow and I'm expecting levels to stay near 4.20 metres throughout Saturday 🐭
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Please just ignore this incredibly inaccurate Environment Agency prediction. The River Ouse will not get this high. As usual, I will start tweeting if it looks like getting above 2 metres, but for now there is no need for concern.
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River Ouse in York at 1.61 metres and rising steadily. I'm predicting a peak on Sunday with levels likely to hit 2.6+ metres. Updates to follow as the snow melts 🐁
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River Ouse in York at 3.46 metres. We're very close to the peak now and should see levels falling back slightly again this evening, eventually passing below 3 metres on Saturday 🐭
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I'm predicting a peak on Mon. River heights rising above 4 metres tomorrow and a 50/50 chance of getting slightly above 4.50 metres.
Exact peak prediction coming tomorrow, once the rain sinks in but this is an overview of what I expect 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 1.24 metres and falling slowly. Wet forecast for tomorrow, but the heaviest of the rain looks like missing the Ouse catchment to the south west. Plenty of light rain for us but it's not enough to cause problems for the River Ouse 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.03 metres and rising slow to steady. I'm predicting a peak of 3.75-4.00 metres tomorrow evening 🐭
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That last batch of rain was heavy heavy, we'd been coping OK until then! updates to follow this evening...🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.64 metres and rising slowly. Another batch of rain is arriving this morning to keep the momentum going, I'm predicting levels of 4.10-4.40 metres on Wednesday and Thursday 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 0.63 metres and rising slowly. I'm still not seeing 2 metres out of this one yet...but keeping an eye on this evening's rain in the catchment. It's heavy but moves over quickly 😀🐭
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River Ouse in York at 2.36 metres and rising slowly. I'm expecting levels slightly above 2.50 metres later today 🐭
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River Ouse in York at 3.65 metres and rising very slowly. I'm predicting a peak of 3.70-3.90 metres this evening 🙂🐭
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Sad to say, it was still more accurate than the official Environment Agency supercomputer. It looks like a case of starting as we mean to go on and keep following for updates on another winter of floods 🐭😃 2/2
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