Oeystein Kalleklev
@OKalleklev
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CEO of Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG) and CEO and BoD member of Avance Gas (OSE:AGAS).
Oslo, Norway
Joined April 2013
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The LNG product markets woke up yesterday and some interesting observations in thread 1/n
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Why the gas crunch in Europe have dissipated recently, a thread 1/n. All the six biggest economies have experienced warmer weather than in more than a decade reducing gas demand as heating season starts in October.
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It’s not complicated, just pay it back as dividends💚
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Happy to announce sale of Venus Glory for $66m at a $27m profit thus finalizing our fleet renewal program. We expect to book about $121m of profits from sale of four ships in Q1 and Q2 this year then. Happy new year!
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Reporting season is finally over with all the 5 public shipping companies in the JF Group reporting healthy numbers 📈 This burger index meme illustrate the burger meal investors can buy depending on which stock they are invested in based on Q2 dividend 🍔
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Red hot Avance Gas numbers today with $165m quarterly dividend ($2.15 per share) being so hot that we needed to add an extra disclaimer to our investors.
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All-time high! US crude production now hits 13.2m barrels a day. This is more than any other country and accounting for about one in eight barrels of global output. US now accounts for 80(!) per cent of global output growth this year 1/n
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Panama congestion was a big theme last year driving up sailing distances, and the transit limitations will continue in 2024, at least until the next rain season start in June. 1/n
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@JavierBlas
2/3 of LNG is priced $12-13/mmbtu or $70-75boe. However Germany buys none of these volumes as their politicians have been making mistakes for ~20yrs. Rather than blaming LNG exporters they should apoligize to their voters because their were warned, but increased their dependency:
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About one and a half month left of the heating season, although in Norway, the heating season can last well into April. In any case, I was doing a inventory count on the firewood stocks and just like the natural gas inventory levels in Europe, I have ample stocks with 1,060
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Another good day to be Avance Gas shareholder when we crystalize profit of $315m on selling our VLGCs to BW LPG with upside on trading the ships for the rest of the year. Make sure it’s room for more dividends on your account.
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Timing is key when investing in shipping. In Sep 20, DNB closes down its long time running shipping fund DNB Navigator. This was just when the shipping rally started. Since then the Oslo Børs Shipping Index (OBSHX) has returned 440% or 140% p.a 🤠
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Given the strong VLGC market, the MCap has surpassed $1bn and we thereby join the >$1bn club together with the other Seatankers listed shipping companies. Frontline is the beast after its 24 VLCC acquisition with a MCap now at $5bn!
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As
@FT
reports today, EU nations imported 101mn tonnes of LNG in 2022, 58 per cent more than the previous year. The bloc accounted for 24 per cent of global LNG imports during the period. Full story:
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2022 was the year of natural gas shortage in Europe. Will 2023 be the year of diesel shortage? As Financial Times explains today, Europe is a big import region for diesel. Europe consumes about 6.4m barrels of diesel a day, but only produce about 5 million barrels.
#OOTT
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Further cuts in Panama Canal transit announced this week with capacity being cut 50% resulting in VLGCs being squeezed out as reported by
@tradewindsnews
. This has this week resulted in new record of $2.85m paid to skip the line on soutbound leg on top of regular fees.
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Not only is FLEX LNG a value stock but also one of the fastest growing companies in the US stock market with a no 3 position among the 100 fastest growing companies in 2022 according to Fortune. Especially cool to beat AMD which came in at no 7.
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If you got a lump of coal in your Christmas stockings, that might not be a bad thing. As illustrated by Alpine Macro, if you take the long view, the average upcycle in commodities last for nine years so we might very well be in the early days of the current commodity bull cycle.
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I have become a huge fan of using Chat GPT. So, naturally, I asked the AI to generate how I can expect my Valentine's Day to be. I might have given Chat GPT some small hints that Avance Gas will be reporting Q4 on Feb 14. If you like what you see, please join at 14:00 CET.
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Fantastic short 9 minutes documentary by
@WSJ
explaining the cause and impact of the congestion in Panama Canal caused by the worst draught in the Canal’s history stretching back to 1914:
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With today's new deal Cheniere.
@flexlngltd
has a minimum of 63 years of backlog. This gives our investors a high degree of protection for continued market volatility. So if you like protection from the mood of Mr. Market, Flex LNG might be the right stock for you.
#lng
#OOTT
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The situation in the Red Sea has gone from bad to worse with more ships deciding to take other routes.
@WSJ
has made a very informative 6 minutes video about the situation and how ships are taking measures to protect themselves against attacks
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Boom💥 Avance Gas Q2 numbers just as strong as Q1 numbers, profits of $36m i.e. Best ever H1 with $72m of Net Profits. Profits belong to shareholders so we are paying out about $76m in dividends for H1 with another $0.50 quarterly dividend per share. Webcast 14:00 CEST/08:00 EDT
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Sold out! There are more or less no more LNG ships available this winter. This is very much reflected by the Fearnleys rate assesment today. In FLEX LNG we have 12 out of 13 ships on long term charters but one ship on index linked to spot rates. I have s…
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Looking forward to a weekend reading the new book of shipping legend Michael Tusiani, Chairman Emeritus of
@PotenPartners
, and Gordon Shearer. Michael was so kind to send the book to me and the book will now enter the extensive essential reading list for new FLEX LNG employees!
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We joined the
@ParetoSec
31st Energy conference in Oslo today and gave a boring update on
@flexlngltd
as well as a timeline on further dividends (already paid $3.50 per share or $268m in H1) in Avance Gas following the $1.05bn sale of our VLGC fleet to BW LPG in August.
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The first LNG cargo from Venture Global LNG's new LNG export plant Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana, US, made its landing at Dunkirk in France yesterday helping to alleviate the energy crisis in Europe as reported by
@SergioChapa
in
@business
:
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It's reporting season in the Seatankers shipping companies with Golden Ocean and Frontline reporting Q2 today. Times are good in shipping with nice dividend pay-outs to shareholders. Last public shipping company to report is Avance Gas which is due next week on August 31!
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Floating storage levels in LNG shipping is at all time high levels with slightly more than 2.5million tonnes tied up in floating storage. This equates to around 35 ships. The drivers for floating storage is two fold: 1) congestion in Europe where there is…
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Lot's of focus on the Balticconnector in recent days. The Balticconnector connects Finland to Estonia and damage to the pipeline was first identified on October 8 with the President of Finland on October 10 stating the damage was likely the result of "external activity" 1/n
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The Flag is up at
@NYSE
11 Wall Street in preperation of
@flexlngltd
5 year anniversary closing bell ceremony, but first SFL will do the opening bell to celebrate their 20 year streak of 81 consecutive quarterly dividends since listing in 2004.
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Then there was none. Right now, there are no LNG carriers left in the Red Sea with the LNG carrier "Al Rekayyat" being the last one transiting this route according to
@Kpler
. LNG carriers are now being re-routed through Cape of Good Hope or deviated to other destinations.
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Go long coal and short lungs!
IT’S OFFICIAL: The Biden administration halts approvals of new US LNG export plants while it scrutinizes climate impact 🚨 🇺🇸 🚢
⚠️ This could delay proposed plants slated for 2027 and after
👉 Projects currently under construction won’t be affected
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Yes, that's right TradeWinds! We don't brag that we are going to pay a minimum dividend of x cents or 50% of net profits so that management can enjoy themselves with the other half of the profits pursuing empire building, earnings belong to shareholders!
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Price slump of LNG steepen the gas contango actually making it more attractive to float LNG cargoes and this will probably last until mid-January as I explain in this
@business
story:
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Really bad proposal from Financial Times that Norway should cut the price of natural gas to Europe voluntarily since the price is so high. Just a history lesson: Natural gas from Norway to Europe was sold under long term contracts…
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Well done Golden Ocean Management AS! In FLEX LNG we raised our quarterly dividend per share from $0.4 in Q2 to $0.75 in Q3. Golden Ocean see our raise and call us by raising from $0.5 in Q2 to $0.85 in Q3. This is good poker play, race is on guys!
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Don’t miss this story in
@TheEconomist
why renewables have hidden costs and why natural gas is the best stable source of power to combine with the intermittency of renewables:
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Merry FleX-Mas to all the investors who want to sleep well with
@flexlngltd
. You can also win our exclusive Flexington bed linen set by providing the best question for our Q&A session for our Q4 webcast in February!
#oott
#lng
#shipping
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Europe now so desperate for LNG that industry players considering reloading Asian cargoes for re-export to Europe which would be an unprecedentet move. However, a cold snap in Asia can change dynamics as the market is balancing on…
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As The Economist explains, trading commodities has been exceptionally profitable recently given the increased volatility with price spikes caused by geopolitical events. 1/n
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We are today delivering knock out results in
@flexlngltd
and we have summarized this in a 3 minute short video, see thread. I hope you will join our Webcast at 15:00 CET / 09:00 EST today!
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I think I found a new favorite restaurant in boat quay district of Singapore. Advertising for the use of LPG as a clean and inexpensive cooking fuel is surely something more restaurants should do, right?
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Cash balance of Avance Gas is soaring 🚀 Today we announced the completion of the sale of our VLGC newbuilding
#5
with intended name Avance Castor ✅ With that sale we have carried out three of the four vessel sales with cash release of ~$125m 📈 The last remaining vessel sale is
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This is my all-time favourite financial crisis cartoon. As relevant today as back in 1987. New crisis but same recipe being central bankers need to save the day by injecting liquidity to the system when panic arise.
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Suez is the new Panama. Clogging of Panama is sending ships to Suez when ballasting from Asia to Suez and this can add 50% distance tightening LNG and LPG shipping where US is the world’s largest exporter.
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Cool graph from
@Holberggrafen
showing the total return of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks (Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla and Amazon) vs the shipping index at Oslo Børs. As Holberg fondene rightly points out, a portfolio of ships & chips have been the right dish.
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Sad to read that Jim Simons passed away today aged 86, although pretty impressive longevity given his chainsmoking habit. Anyways, Jim Simons is the real OQ, Original Quant. He was a highly regarded math professor who also worked as a code breaker during the cold war. However, he
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Next year >50% of Egypt’s LNG export could be fuelled by Israel. Israel has no LNG export plants, but have recently developed several offshore gas fields with gas exported to Egypt where it’s two LNG export plants Idku and Damietta are cooling the natural gas for LNG exports.
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Asian spot LNG price broke $16 on Aug 2 implying a oil equivalent price of $94 as the global gas market keep on tightening. Buyers who can utilize their upward quantity tolerance clause under offtake agreements typically at 15-30% discount to oil price are probably keeping busy
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Daniel Kahneman died today age 90. He won the Nobel prize in Economics in 2002. He was not the first «non-economist» to win the prize in economics, that was John Nash jr for his research on game theory in 1994 - also know for the movie «A Beautiful Mind». Kahneman was however the
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Q4 was a blockbusting quarter for Avance Gas with quarterly net profit $61.5m as we delivered TCE earnings on a discharge-to-discharge basis of $76,200/day slightly ahead of guidance of $70-75,000/day. This quarterly net profit was the second highest in the Company's history and
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Slides from our FLEX LNG Q4 presentation on Feb 14 where we explained the key driver for the extremely tight spot LNG shipping market last winter. 1/n
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We like flexibility and so do the South Koreans apparantly as they are firing up the world’s first dual fuel LNG & LPG power plant with a capacity of 1.2GW similar to a nuclear plant and sufficient to provide electricity to about 2.8m households per year. SK Gas is now doing the
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Yesterday I watched the most scary movie this year when the documentary “Finding the Money” premiered. The documentary is about some economics academics advocating the free lunch approach of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) where budget deficits doesn’t matter as the Fed can freely
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Great day for coal investors, you will be pumping superprofits for much longer!
FULL STATEMENT: And it's official. The White House announces a "temporary pause" on pending approvals of American LNG export terminals.
The statement is below, and links here to the comuniqué itself: and a White House factsheet:
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@CasinoCapital
We been ramping up dividends and sure as we alluded to at our Q4 call, we don’t rule out buybacks, but we implemented a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) where investors can decide themselves to do dividend buybacks. I know mgt loves buybacks to keep their stock price up, but the
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Good graph from Alpine Macro explaining why the energy crisis will persist for a long time since insufficient investments have been going on for a very long time.
#oott
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Okay, Avance Gas didn’t beat the stock price performance of Sovkomflot on the Moscow Stock Exchange, but except for that we outperformed all shipping stocks worldwide🥈🎖️
The top performing shipping stock this year was Russian tanker company Sovkomflot.
The LPG sector delivered the best returns, followed by tankers. Surprisingly, even some container stocks did really well.
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@joeriwestland
@epolarsen
@BurggrabenH
Div yield 11.5%, P/E 8x and if you were to buy 13 modern LNG ships it would cost you $3.25bn with no cashflow until delivery 2027 while our Enterprise Value is $200m less and our ships are on the water generating cashflow. Expensive is in the eye of the beholder👀👀
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The US LNG export revolution started in 2009 with a phone call from one Natgas executive in financial distress, Audrey McClendon in Chesapeake, to a fellow Natgas executive in distress, Charif Souki in Cheniere, as described in the book “Frackers” by Gregory Zuckerman
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Two in a row 🤟 Yesterday we announced a new one year variable TC for the VLGC Chinook in Avance Gas and today
@flexlngltd
is announcing a 10mths fixed hire TC for the potent ship Flex Constellation which just recently carried out her 5 year special survey in drydock in Singapore
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2,222.9% - That’s the total return you would have earned as investor in
@flexlngltd
the last decade. That’s make Flex LNG the second best stock performer on Oslo Børs, only beaten by Kitron which delivered marginaly better at 2249.6% (congrats!) according to
@Finansavisen
today.
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Today we in Avance Gas delivered our most profitable first quarter results ever with quarterly profits of $36.3m. With sunny 20 something degrees in Oslo the best way to celebrate is to invite friends and fire up the BBQ fueled by affordable, clean burning LPG. Bon voyage/apetit!
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Gas is back. Norwegian piped gas exports to EU/UK fell to 4yr low in Sep due to long maintenance season but jumped to 7mths high in Oct. Exports ytd 10% below ‘22 due to deferred maintenance caused by Covid in 20/21 and energy crisis in 22.
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Avance Gas reported strong Q2 numbers this week and this slide about Panama congestion got by far the most attention. As we explained the Panama Canal has clogged up due to transit limitations caused by the worste draught since the Canal opened in 1914. 1/n
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It’s April 1st and the beginning of the cooling season so we have a cool summer kit to win. Ask the best question in our Q1 Q&A mid-May and win the new Flex on the Beach towel and sunscreen, the cap and the future looks bright glasses and off course the I❤️Dividends t shirt!
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Join the
@flexlngltd
Q2 Result Presentation by Live Videocast tomorrow at 15.00 CEST/9:00 am EST where we will also give you an update on the LNG market. Best question for Q&A session wins Flex LNG Summer kit consisting of running shirt, cap and Flex on the Beach sandals.
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If you have nothing to watch this weekend, I highly recomend the new documentary from
@business
about Russia’s Shadow Fleet i.e., captive fleet of usually old tankers carrying sanctioned oil and failing to obtain adequate marine insurance
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Tomorrow it's Valentine's Day and we in Avance Gas are now preparing to give you what you want, an informative update on the LPG freight and product market😍 While traffic in the Red Sea and Suez has almost come to an halt with owners and charterers are now mostly routing their
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Very suitable 1-1 meeting room for
@flexlngltd
at
@ParetoSecNO
Energy Conference at Holmenkollen Park Hotel today. Seems like Pareto understands that Flex investors like to sleep well at night being protected by a big backlog enabling us to pay juicy quarterly dividends.
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«Easy money is bad for you. It represents short-run gain that will be paid for in immediate distortions and later regrets»🙇🏼This is one of the lesson from David Landes “magnum opus” The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. This seems a lot more relevant today than when the book was
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¡Ay, caramba! The price of the national dish in Spain, Paella originating from Valencia, rose 19.1% compared to a year ago according to… yes, no joke, the Bloomberg’s monthly Paella index. This is more than 3x times the general inflation is Spain which currenrly is 6%.
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With Asian spot LNG prices (JKM) at $12.5/MMBtu equivalent to $72 per barrel of oil i.e. parity to oil price, LNG market might feel loose now. However, as illustrated by
@Jefferies
, LNG product market will get looser as more export capacity is brought online:
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With the high gas and electricity prices in Europe, some might think hydrogen should become more attractive. Think again! Prices for hydrogen is rocketting as hydrogen based on electrolysis requires a lot of electricity (a lot more than what you get back…
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Interstate pipeline construction in US drops 97% to record low from 2017 to 2022 due to a combination of red and green tape. As
@FT
writes, several projects to move gas, which is abundant in many states following the shale revolution, from one state to another are being blocked.
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Chinese LNG import has finally surpassed the levels from 2021 on a year-to-date basis. Imports in January and February were 13.64 million tonnes slightly higher than the 13.56 MT delivered in 2021 according to figures from
@Kpler
, admittedly helped by leap year. In 2021, Chinese
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Energy Security is Food Security. Europe has none of them. The natural gas crisis is now creating a chain reaction in Europe. You need lots of natural gas to make fertilizers. In Europe 80% of cost of making Nitrogen based fertilizers is natural gas. Whil…
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We in Avance Gas are out reporting strong earnings for Q4 with 3x net profits vs Q3 at $34.7m driven by strong freight rates. We have booked Q1 at similar levels and together with strong financials we hike our DPS to $0.5 Join our live webcast at 14:00 CET / 08:00 am EST today.
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In 2023, LNG shipping market been unusual usual with spot rates in line with the past. Peak was $240,000/day in Sept while bottom was $60,000/day in June which is a bit later than March which tend to be the bottom. Term rates and spot rates have now converged to $90-100,000 1/2
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Biggest daily jump in VLGC rates for main route AG to Japan, we have seen in recent memory with TCE rates jumping more than $20,000 in just one day. As we discussed yesterday in our Q2 Avance webcast, we have increased spot exposure to capture upside in a strong freight market
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The warm weather in Europe is resulting in plummeting gas prices due to high inventory levels and this is creating a shift in demand to Asia as illustrated by today's Arb-O-Meter by Fearnleys.
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Commodity profits of $104bn💵 According to
@McKinsey
research, profits (measured as EBIT) from commodities trading activities across the entire sector, including by independent traders, banks, hedge funds, national energy companies and asset-based businesses such as by the
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Fish & Ships🐟🚢 Busy week in NYC with
@CapitalLink
Shipping conference Monday and then Seatankers Investor Day on Tuesday. The Seatankers Investor Day consisted of a lot more than just shipping. We divided into the offshore space with companies like
@ValarisLimited
, Archer,
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Teaser from our Q4 presentation on Feb 14, Valentines’ Day, despite Freeport outage removing 112 cargoes, LNG market grew 5% last year. Due to zero covid policies, China’s import fell 20%.
. More market info in
@flexlngltd
video webcast next week, hope you will join!
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Germany is rapidly ramping up regasification capacity to replace Russian pipeline gas with third FSRU recently arriving in Germany. However, as Bloomberg reports, Germany will have to wait until 2026 before having similar regas capacity as they used to import by pipe from Russia:
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The main VLGC routes, BLPG1 & BLPG3 hit an all time high on Sept 11 both on tonne and TCE basis. Hence, the levels from have been broken. I am joining
@iamBuffettJr
this week for an update on the VLGC & LPG market which will be available on YouTube afterwards.
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The Key Highlight Video for
@flexlngltd
's Q4 results are now available on our You Tube Channel. We today delivered strong results and are paying out a special dividend of $0.25 in addition to the regular dividend of $0.75.
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Flex Enterprise leaving Sembawang yard today March 19 after completing drydocking according to plan and schedule. This is the first drydocking being done for a ship in
@flexlngltd
fleet. Ship now looks brand new! Safe voyage!
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Fearnleys is out today with their VLGC sector report. The 21 page report gives a very good overview of the VLGC shipping market. If you don't have time to read it, I will give you my four key takeaways: 1: 15% of the fleet is above 20 years old as there has hardly been any
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