Marhelm
@MarhelmData
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Shipping data, commodities, and trade flow analysis. We provide a data platform, private discord, and weekly report. Made by investors, for investors.
The Open Ocean
Joined February 2023
Will leveraged dry bulk companies need to raise capital in prolonged low rate environment? Kepler Cheuvreux gave us an update on the current risks for the segment. $HSHP $SBLK $GOGL
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Egypt signed $3bn deals with Shell and TotalEnergies for 60 LNG cargoes for 2025 after domestic gas output fell to a seven-year low in 2024, reversing its net exporter status.
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Tanker rates for Russian crude from Kozmino have halved after hitting $7.5M per voyage to China in January. More clean vessels eased the Aframax shortage following US sanctions on 183 ships. $FRO
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U.S. Permian oil output growth is expected to slow by at least 25% in 2025, rising 250,000-300,000 bpd, down from 380,000 bpd in 2024. Total output was 6.3m bpd last year.
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"Iran has more vessel attack capacity than the Houthis" Optimism about the Red Sea looks doubtful after today's talk with @mercoglianos
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Pareto expects that jack-up rates will continue to be low and that the supply side will have less discipline. Dayrate expectations for 7G drillships are lowered from $425-475k to $360 - 420k. $VAL $RIG $NE $SDRL $BORR
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Capital Clean Energy announced a $0.15 dividend for Q4 2024. Adjusted net income hits $20.8M. CEO eyes vessel scrapping and Trump’s pro-LNG policies as potential market boosters. $CCEC
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A tanker and a container ship passing each other in the Panama Canal
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Crude tankers are shifting from Russia as Kazakhstan reroutes oil through Turkey. Barrels from the Kashagan field now flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, likely increasing Aframax and Suezmax demand.
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Hunter Group estimates that 156 additional VLCCs will be needed by 2026 to meet increased demand from crude output growth and sanctions, making ship supply increasingly tight.
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Maersk launches a 12-month share buyback of up to $2.01bn to adjust its capital structure. $MAERSK
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In Q4 2024, $DHT averaged TCE earnings of $38,800/day—$38,200/day for VLCCs in the spot market and $40,500/day for VLCCs on time charter. Spot VLCCs under 15 years earned $40,500/day
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Despite deliveries of 5 percent of the fleet, Stainless Tankers is expecting a slow recovery in 2025. Product tankers have stabilized and there is geopolitical upside. $STST.OL $SNI.OL $STNG
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Stainless Tankers declares a $0.275 dividend for Q4 after a profit of $3.8M and revenues of $16.1M. Fleet valued at $167.9M with $74.3M debt. $STST
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Arctic: Trump’s pressure on Iran may cut exports by 500,000 bpd, tightening oil markets. Rising tanker rates and oil prices could boost Frontline’s activity with longer voyages and increased demand. $FRO
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Subsea 7's $1B dividend plan for 2024-2027 ($250M/year) may rise. A $350M payout could yield 7%. SEB raises price target to NOK 245, seeing a 33% upside. $SUBC.OL
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@henriksen_46966 It's still mostly crude. The non-tanker vessels are very small on a tonnage basis.
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Tariff wars between the US and China. will not change trade patterns as much as in 2019 because of lacking spare capacity. FLEX CEO. $FLNG
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DOF announces two subsea cotnracts for execution in the APAC region in 2025 with a combined value of $30 million. $DOFG.OL
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