Noah 🥥🌴
@ntorok4
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So it's official. Democrats have won a slim majority in the PA State house, but one Dem, Rep. Tony DeLuca, sadly passed away just before election day. When the chamber reorganizes on January 3rd, each party will hold 101 seats. Democrats were able to flip a net of 12 seats.
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Congrats to
@SummerForPA
, who is the first Black woman elected to congress from PA! Her race garnered national attention for the fact that her GOP opponent shared the same name as the retiring Democratic incumbent, and because AIPAC launched a last ditch effort to defeat her.
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For the first time in decades, the PA State House map is genuinely competitive, even in a Democratic midterm. The last time Dems won the chamber was in 2006, where they won a coalition of seats in cities and rural labor towns, unimaginable in the political climate of today.
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Rep. Frank Burns is the most conservative Democrat in the PA House and happens to be the best overperformer in the chamber. Donald Trump demolished Joe Biden in the district, but Burns was able to win with a more comfortable margin than he did in 2018.
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Biden won her district with 80% of the vote fwiw
A thread 🧵 1/ of x
As a woman, a mother, and a lawmaker, I have dedicated my life to championing the values that fortify our families and uplift our communities. After much reflection, prayer, and soul-searching, I have come to a decision that aligns with my core values and the
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Doug Mastriano was so toxic to PA exurbanites, that Josh Shapiro was able to flip PA HD-12, a Trump +20 and Wagner + 8 district. John Fetterman also outran Biden and was able to flip 2 precincts. By decade end, PA-12 may be one of the most competitive in the General Assembly.
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Also in the same poll:
Attorney General
🔵 Eugene DePasquale 44%
🔴 Dave Sunday 41%
Auditor General
🔵 Malcolm Kenyatta 43%
🔴 Tim DeFoor 43%
Treasurer
🔵 Erin McClelland 44%
🔴 Stacy Garrity 44%
🚨 New PA poll out from
@Liberty4pa
, a GOP-aligned in-state firm (800 RV, 7/23 - 7/25).
🦅 POTUS
🔵 Harris: 47%
🔴 Trump: 46%
Harris+1
🏛️ PA SEN
🔵 Casey: 51%
🔴 McCormick: 40%
Casey+11
🗳️ Generic Ballot
🔵 DEM: 49%
🔴 GOP: 48%
D+1
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ok why would Rob Mercuri, the NRCC, and the PA GOP think it was a good idea to let MTG campaign in PA-17?
I’m excited to be visiting beautiful Pennsylvania campaigning for President Trump!
Let’s Make America Great Again! 🇺🇸
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Rest in Peace to Chief Justice of the PA Supreme Court, Max Baer. He won his seat on the court narrowly in 2003, by beating out Superior Court Judge Joan Orie Melvin. Despite the margin being fairly similar to the 2020 Presidential Election, the coalitions are very different.
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As I've said before, the PA GOP has 101 state representatives, 28 state senators, 8 congressmen, 2 statewide officials and countless local and former officials but is overwhelmingly urging an out of state candidate to run for senate simply because he can self fund his race
In an open letter, nearly 100 Republican leaders across Pennsylvania called on
@DaveMcCormickPA
to run on the GOP ticket for the U.S. Senate
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While the PA House Democrats narrowly flipped the State House, they would lose 5 seats in the process, including HD-9 represented by longtime Rep. Chris Sainato. While he greatly outperformed Biden in the Trump + 26 Lawrence Co. seat, his party id ultimately caused his downfall.
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fun fact: This Sheetz is in Moon Township. There are actually 0 Sheetz locations in the City of Pittsburgh
The presidential limousine, known as “The Beast,” parked outside of a Sheetz gas station during an unannounced visit with President Joe Biden, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Wednesday.
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Similar ads were extremely effective in 2020 in SWPA (large catholic pop.) he simultaneously outran Biden and all other statewide Dems in areas that Trump won, and those that vote far more GOP down the ballot
NEW:
@JoshShapiroPA
is up with four TV ads this morning highlighting his work to hold predator priests accountable and give survivors of abuse a voice.
"When Josh Shapiro ... started the Grand Jury report, I felt like I was not alone anymore."
#PAGov
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You time travel to November and find that this is the new composition of the PA House. What happened?
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Voter registration isn’t always the best indicator of polarization, but it can be used to see internal political shifts inside a state, and to find ancestral bases of Democratic and Republican support. Here are maps of voter reg. in PA in 2003+2021, with a map to show the swing.
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No doubt that
@CartwrightPA
will be in a fight for his political life in November, but he will be running in a friendlier district, because PA-8 has absorbed most of Monroe County that was previously in PA-7. Because of this, Dems were able to win the house vote by about 4.4%.
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Summer Lee gains another primary challenger, this time Laurie MacDonald, the President of the Center for Victims in Pittsburgh. Not sure her view on Amy Coney Barrett will play well for her in though....
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PA lost a district in reapportionment, causing the 12th district to be moved to the PGH area. Unlike the 18th district, the new 12th resides partially in Westmoreland County to keep the neighboring 17th district competitive. Despite this, the district remains safely Democratic.
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would you look at what disappeared from his website 👀
I'm Rob Mercuri. I'm running for Congress to restore the American dream for the next generation. As a veteran, father, small businessman, & conservative state legislator, I know we must protect our conservative values & get our nation back on track.
#MercuriforCongress
#PA17
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PROJECTION: Democrats will flip the PA House for the first time since 2006. Composition of the chamber will be 101 Dems* and 100 Republicans so far, as districts 151 and 142 are still too close to call and will likely go to recounts.
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Dave quite literally literally laid off 50 Pittsburgh employees before going on a trip to New Delhi to announce over 100 new overseas jobs. I'm sure he cares about PA workers 'so much'.
That’s your opinion. I think Dave cared a hell of a lot about the people of Pennsylvania when he served in combat as a member of the 82nd Airborne and when he served as President & CEO of FreeMarkets right here in Pittsburgh providing hundreds of good paying jobs and
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@leftistbrayden
well I mean she kinda just parachuted into NY to run for senate after living in Arkansas
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The GOP is still severely underfunded in PA HD-30 (PGH North Hills). Democrat Arvind Venkat has $456,867 versus his opponent GOP Cindy Kirk's $12,820. That means Venkat has outraised Kirk almost 36:1 !! That is an amazing feat for Venkat as a first time candidate.
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On Tuesday night, it was an end to an era in Westmoreland County. Incumbent coroner Ken Bacha fell to fmr mayor Tim Carson. He did not go down without a fight, overperforming Biden by over 25%. He did best around the Greensburg area, almost getting enough support to win.
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Fetterman is able to speak and walk well, despite that some have taunted him for having a stroke. Guess what? Even if he moved or talked slower, it has no effect on his ability to serve in DC. I'm glad he's still running so we have more disability representation in congress.
It's not easy being a Democrat in a very 🔴 county
But rural Dems in places like Mercer County are fired up
Run up the margins in Mercer, and you’ll send me to Washington + Dr. Oz back to New Jersey
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this you?
.
@GovernorShapiro
for
#VP
? He’d fit right in w/ radical left-wing agenda:
1. His policies threaten
#PA
energy jobs & consumers’ electric bills.
2. He broke his promise to help kids get out of failing schools, siding with teachers’ unions instead.
3. He’s crusading for
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One week ago,
@Innamo
won the Democratic Primary for Chief Executive of Allegheny County, cementing yet another win for progressives in the county. She performed best in the city of Pittsburgh, Black communities of the East Hills, and her native home of the North Hills.
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One of the PA Dems best chances for a pickup this year in the state house lies in the Poconos in HD-189. The old HD-189 was narrowly won by Biden in 2020, but
@RepBrownPA
won handedly. Monroe Co was once a GOP stronghold just 20 years ago, and it still shows it down-ballot.
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Congrats to
@jessicalbenham
who won her primary overwhelmingly on Tuesday over an Allegheny Co. Dems endorsed opponent. While the local Dem Committee prefers to endorse against incumbent progressive female legislators, it's clear that voters do not share their opinions.
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Dems look poised to win all five seats in the Norwin School District against a slate of far right candidates. Trump won here handedly
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Looking at Census Quick Facts, Johnson County is very similar to Bucks County, in size, income, education level, and racial demographics. To compare, this is not the kind of result the PA GOP would want if their anti abortion constitutional amendment reaches the ballot here.
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Key recruit for SD-37, a Trump + 1.3% district that connects educated & upper middle class suburbs and some working class towns in the South and North Hills of Pittsburgh. While the district is quickly trending towards Democrats, the GOP still holds many down ballot offices there
News: County councilor Tom Duerr, a Bethel Park Democrat, will seek to flip the competitive 37th state Senate district next year
The district covers southern and western Allegheny County suburbs, and Trump narrowly won it by 1.3% in 2020
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2 weeks ago,
@ChrisForPA
won the Democratic primary in the new PA-17 to replace current Rep. Lamb. Despite the large margin, it can be seen that Meloy did have bases of support in his native North Hills, as well as Wilkinsburg where he was endorsed by the current and former mayor
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Big fundraising lead in Pennsylvania's 30th Legislative District. Democrat Dr. Arvind Venkat raised a whopping $460,080 (!!) vs his opponent Republican Cindy Kirk's $27,086. That means Venkat outraised his opponent 17:1 !
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Last week, I covered Rick Santorum’s 2000 reelection. Today, here is a map of Bob Casey Jr.’s 2000 reelection as Auditor General. Being the son of a popular governor has its perks, as well as being a popular incumbent on his own. Casey won easily, winning 34 counties and 14 CD’s.
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Last week, Allegheny County Progressives achieved another feat when
@MattDugan4DA
beat incumbent DA Zappala by 10%. Dugan performed best in the city of Pittsburgh, Black communities of the East Hills, and educated areas of the North/South hills, while Zappala won over wwc voters.
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Are there many politicians that have genuinely enjoyed their lives after losing an election?
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Polls are about to close in 3 Legislative Districts in Allegheny Co. Districts 32, 34, and 35 had special elections due to the death of Rep. Tony Deluca, and the resignations of Congresswoman Summer Lee and Lt. Gov Austin Davis. All 3districts were won by Biden by double digits.
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Here is part 1 of my weekend project. Pictured below are maps of the past 3 Presidential Elections in PA-28:
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Dr. Mehmet Oz, who is running for US Senate, lists his residence as Bryn Athyn, PA. The area is so ancestrally Republican, its legislative district (PA-152) never had a Democratic representative until last year when
@Nancy4PAHouse
flipped the open seat in a three way race.*
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For the first time in almost 30 years, legendary Congressman
@USRepMikeDoyle
is no longer in office. First Elected in 1994, Doyle flipped PA-18 despite the Republican Revolution. He was able to win by 10 points, and won in places that would be unimaginable for Dems today.
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if I had a nickel for every Republican Schools Superintendent that switched parties to run for governor in a red state, I'd have two nickels.
Jennifer McCormick, Indiana's former schools superintendent, switched parties to run for governor as a Democrat. She is unopposed in Tuesday's primary.
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Dems will have a tricky path to electing a speaker and maximizing their majority, not only due to DeLuca's death, but also because two of their members, Austin Davis and Summer Lee, will have to resign in order to take their new positions as Lieutenant Governor and Congresswoman.
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In 2019 Democrats received a majority of the votes in the Greene County DA Election, yet failed to win.
The race pitted Dem Jessica Phillips, an ADA, against Republican David Russo, a defense attorney, and Patrick Fitch, who lost the Dem Primary and ran as a write in candidate.
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With Leaners:
Attorney General
🔵 Eugene DePasquale 48%
🔴 Dave Sunday 43%
Auditor General
🔵 Malcolm Kenyatta 46%
🔴 Tim DeFoor 44%
Treasurer
🔵 Erin McClelland 46%
🔴 Stacy Garrity 45%
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Truly sad that the PA GOP has to rely on creating conspiracy theories without citing any actual sources because they are afraid one of their incumbents in a competitive district is going to lose.
Multiple witnesses at the bar have confirmed that
@nicole_ruscitto
was drinking. Why wasn’t a breathalyzer used by local law enforcement? If another car was involved, did the other driver stop to check on her that they could corroborate her story?
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The PA State Senate will have some close elections this fall. Biden was able to win the new 24th district in 2020 by a slim .09%. Although the Montgomery/Berks district is quickly trending left, it's far more Republican down-ballot, so Dems will have to put up a fight to win it.
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PA Gov Candidate Dave White has held himself as a political outsider, but he actually served 4 years on the Delaware County Council, and served as a Ridley Twp Commissioner. He lost in 2017 when Democrats won their first seats on the DelCo Council in its over century existence.
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Wash. DC is only 2 hours from Harrisburg, so it's possible that Lee can vote for Joanna McClinton to be speaker, immediately resign from her office, and travel to DC also on 1/3. It's also possible that she could postpone her swearing-in in Congress, which others have done before
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THREAD:
@JoshShapiroPA
announced his candidacy for Gov this past week, so here is a map in area he should perform similar in. PA-30 is an educated and wealthy suburban state house District in the North Hills of PGH. Last year, he outran his 2016 showing there as well as Biden.
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Burns reelection chances are better in the new iteration drawn this year. The 72nd district gained Johnstown, which allowed AG Josh Shapiro to crack 40% and Gov Wolf 47% respectively. According to DRA, the district now includes all precincts in Cambria County that Wolf won.
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PA is known for its amount of ticket splitting. Although the 151st district was last competitive for the GOP presidentially in 2012,
@RepToddStephens
has been able to hold the district since 2011. He is known for being the most bipartisan member of the PA House GOP Caucus.
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Trump won the Pgh market by 7% in 2020
How did Harris and Trump speech ratings compare in top swing state markets?
Philly: Harris +50%
Pittsburgh: Trump +2%
Detroit: Harris +36%
Milwaukee: Trump +10%
ATL: Harris +21%
PHX: Harris +3%
Charlotte: Harris +1%
Raleigh: Harris +31%
Greensboro: Trump +11%
Vegas: Trump +1%
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Want to learn more about PA's 38th Senate District, check out my latest Substack! I summarized electoral trends in the North Hills, and point out what both sides should look out for in November!
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John Fetterman also won his home district by an impressive 27.2%. While he did 10% worse than Shapiro, he still won quite a few Trump won towns, such as Wall, Bethel Park, White Oak, South Park, Glassport, Port Vue, Dravosburg, and Pleasant Hills.
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Back in 2019,
@ACE_Fitzgerald
was able to win reelection in a landslide, winning many Trump won towns. Despite this, Biden outran him in majority Black precincts in PGH where turnout dropped at a faster rate from 2016 than others, and parts of the ancestral Republican North Hills
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Two years later Democrats held the chamber, and signs of political changes were present. The party was able to flip multiple suburban seats that were never held by Democrats and conversely, Republicans were able to win multiple rural seats that were never represented by the GOP.
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Thread:
In 2022, the PA GOP finally achieved their dream of defeating Minority Leader Frank Dermody, when Oakmont Councilwoman
@carrieforpa
defeated him by about 2%. Dermody outran Biden in most of the Alle-Kiski Valley, while DelRosso had home turf advantage in Oakmont.
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Here's a map of the 2016 PA Auditor General election, where
@DePasqualePA
was reelected to a second term. He vastly outperformed Clinton ancestrally Democratic SWPA and NEPA. He and Treasurer Joe Torsella were the only statewide Dems that year to win Beaver and Luzerne Counties.
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@christos_ioa
@notkavi
lmao blowing up the filibuster is worse than overturning elections when you don't like the results??
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It may be impossible to win Allegheny County as a Republican. The party has not won the county since Tom Corbett did in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election.
To show what a miracle win for the GOP might look like, I utilized a 10.45% uniform swing from the 2020 Presidential Election.
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#PA12
is looked at by some as a sleeper flip for the GOP because of an outsider politician named Mike Doyle (no not that one). Despite his claim that he isn't a career politician, he previously ran for the state house twice (and lost) and has served on the Plum council since 2005
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Quick Map: I thought it would be cool to look at the map of the last Dem Majority in the PA House. In the blue wave, Dems took control of the chamber for the first time in years in 2006, and held it until 2010. 2008-2011 composition shown below, using 2000-2012 boundaries.
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Here is the Current 2 Party Voter registration in PA's new legislative districts. In areas like rural SWPA and NEPA, there still much room for Dem reg. to catch up to Pres. numbers, while the opposite is true for most of SEPA and the Harrisburg area:
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While Lee won by just over 10%, AG Josh Shapiro won the district by a whopping 37%, and only lost the Westmoreland portion by 5%, doing better than Governor Wolf. While Lee underperformed uniformly given the above circumstances, she held even in minority-majority precincts.
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Preliminary 2024 PA House Ratings:
Dems and the GOP both share slim paths to the majority, although Republicans currently hold more competitive seats, mainly in central and southeast PA, with a handful of Democratic trending, suburban seat in Allegheny
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Coach Walz is about to meet one of the best high school football teams in the entire country.
We are at Heinz Field (yes it is called that now) home of the Aliquippa high school football team. Harris and Walz will be addressing the team shortly.
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Running a campaign based on Anti Abortion, School Choice, and deregulation tells me that Nelson has learned nothing from 2022. Mastriano was crushed in the North and South Hills, former GOP strongholds, & the addition of the heavily Dem East Hills has made PA-17 less competitive.
🚨 Jim Nelson has filed to run against Chris Deluzio in PA-17, kicking off a host of internal dynamics in this Allegheny/Beaver area district. It’s likely that more Republicans will jump in later, but for now, Nelson has the field to himself.
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keep in mind that the GOP led legislature wanted to impeach Larry Krasner, not this guy
BREAKING | Former Somerset County District Attorney Jeff Thomas was sentenced Thursday to serve 27 to 84 months in prison following his assault conviction earlier this year.
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this isn't exactly the win some are claiming it is Beaver has voted GOP for Pres since 2008 and most changes since have been from D to R registration changes, not new applicants. Despite this Dems like Bob Casey and Josh Shapiro won there and Dems flipped the DA office this year
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Amongst the red wave in 2010, the GOP reclaimed the chamber by retaking seats that Dems flipped in 2006 and 2008, as well as making in roads in rural communities throughout the state. Both house speaker Keith McCall and Majority Leader Todd Eachus were defeated.
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THREAD:
Few Days Late, but here is the 2000 Class 1 PA US Senate election, where Rick Santorum was reelected to a second term by about 7% against Congressman Ron Klink. Santorum was able to keep the Philly suburbs red, while making inroads in Dem territory compared to 1994:
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this is what the PA Sen. GOP sees in its nightmares (2022 PA Gov in SD 37 & 45)
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Sarah Palin running for Alaska's At Large Congressional district is like Tom Corbett running for PA-17
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@Thorongil16
iirc PA has the highest % of residents born in state, and Oz's best county in the primary was Pike, which is home to NY/NJ expats and has the lowest % of in state born residents in PA.
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Thread:
In 2006,
@jasonaltmire
flipped PA-04 from Rep. Melissa Hart by about 4%, amongst the blue wave seen throughout the country. He performed best in ancestrally Democratic areas in Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer, as well as traditionally wwc towns in Allegheny.
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In honor of
@AustinDavisPA
's Lieutenant Governor bid, here's a map of his first election where he won in a landslide special election against a former Democratic councilwoman. He won almost 74% of the vote, and won South Versailles, which Trump won in 2020 with 74.9% of the vote!
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Nevertheless, Democrats either need one GOP member to vote with them to elect a Dem speaker, or else a stalemate may result in a temporary GOP majority after Lee and Davis resign until special elections occur, which are set by the speaker.
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Congrats to
@emily4pa20
who won her primary against an Allegheny Dems endorsed opponent by a large margin. In 2020, she beat incumbent Rep. Ravenstahl. Her performance has made it clear that voters don't share the negative opinion of progressives that the county committee has.
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Congrats to
@SteeleforPA
who won her primary yesterday in PA's 33rd Legislative District. She ran a campaign focused on environmental protection, similar to County Councilwoman Anita Prizio who also represents the area. She won big everywhere, especially in her home of Fox Chapel
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Here is a gif that shows the changes in composition between these 3 elections:
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Shapiro got 60% of the vote in Franklin Park (!!)
Romney received 62% of the vote in 2012.
Similar story in Upper St. Clair where Shapiro got 62% of the vote in the same town where Romney won with 62%! Times are a changin' in Allegheny, and it sure favors one party over the other
this is what the PA Sen. GOP sees in its nightmares (2022 PA Gov in SD 37 & 45)
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On the other hand, Dems could vote to elect a GOP speaker, which isn't entirely out of the question, since the party did it the last time they flipped the state house in 2006, and it was organized by Governor Elect Shapiro, when he served in the state house.
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