Nicholas Vardy - The Global Guru
@NickVardy
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Editor of The Global Guru, Microcap Moonshots, and The Bubble Blog. Seen on CNN International, Fox Business and CNBC Asia
Europe
Joined July 2009
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“You have all these economists with 160 IQs that spend their life studying it, can you name me one super-wealthy economist that’s ever made money out of securities? No.”
— Warren Buffett
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1. "Patience is key in growing wealth. Compounding is a mighty force, and with discipline, even modest gains can double your investment. Discover how with the Rule of 72: A simple way to estimate the doubling time of your money.
#FinancialWisdom
"
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More deep analysis from the world of financial publishing:
“But my spidey senses are telling me that these stocks have something going on that’s not in the news yet. “
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So far 34 companies in the SPX have reported an aggregate Earnings Recession of -6.7% year-over-year (vs. +4% growth in Q422
@Hedgeye
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@unusual_whales
You’d think the SEC would have bigger fish to fry. I’m sure they’re.m in box is full of more serious scams.
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"Global equity markets have skyrocketed to an impressive $109 trillion. America remains a behemoth, holding 42.5% of the global equity. A $100 investment in U.S. stocks in 1990? Now a whopping $2,000."
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@GerberKawasaki
Maybe you should have managed your risk properly instead of always looking for the Fed to bail you out.
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1. "The narrative of China as an emerging global superpower is unraveling. Once poised to challenge the US, China's GDP is now just 64% of America's, a stark decline from 75% two years ago. Economic growth forecasts are being cut
#ChinaEconomy
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@gurgavin
Short the stock, long the puts. wait for rebound on BS narrative. Then rinse and repeat. ATM machine.
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The only difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.
— Albert Einstein
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"I think luck falls on not just the brave but also the ones who believe they belong there." - Novak Djokovic
Your beliefs shape your entire reality. Choose them wisely.
-
@SahilBloom
in The Curiosity Chronicle newsletter
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@CathieDWood
@skorusARK
The trouble is Tesla's shares are (still) 20 years ahead of a fair valuation.
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The first step is to give up the illusion that the primary purpose of modern medical research is to improve Americans’ health most effectively and efficiently. In our opinion, the primary purpose of commercially funded clinical research is to maximize financial return on
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The equity investment portfolio is like a bar of soap; the more you touch it, the less you get from it.
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@saylor
I bet a dollar-weighted return- that is, adjusting for how much was actually invested over time- would yield very different results. It's the same reason the average investor with Peter Lynch didn't make money. People pile in after it's gone up.
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"Ancient Romans and Greeks, Steve Jobs, Charles Darwin attribute their success to surprisingly low work times accompanied by an abundance of restful activities like long walks.”
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@MarketWatch
Make sure you don't have kids. You're $1 million wouldn't cover two kids college costs.
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Experience the heights and crashes of the Roaring Twenties' aviation craze! The 1920s saw aviation stocks skyrocket, as the allure of this fresh breakthrough captivated Wall Street. As a testament, the NYSE listings amplified from a mere 10 in 1920 to a staggering 125 by 1929.
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"The cost of making decisions to please others instead of yourself is misery."
—
@ShaneAParrish
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1. Dive into the 25 worst stocks in modern history via
@Visualacapitalist
These equities have cost shareholders a staggering $1.2 trillion since 1926. To put it in perspective, just 0.1% of stocks resulted in 14% of all shareholder wealth losses.
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You won't BELIEVE what Henry Ford invented that we all use today—and no, it wasn't just a car. 🚗
In 1919, Ford Motors was producing a staggering 1 million model-T cars yearly. But each car required about 100 feet of wood! 🌲
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Did you know Vanguard's assets are worth more than Germany and UK's GDP combined?
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"To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance
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@ktoddmorgan
@nntaleb
What my friend Nassim fails to mention is that most people don't have the "F' you money" to live your life this way. It's easier to preach Stoicism if you're Seneca than if you are Epictetus.
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Back on the trading floor after the 3-day Christmas break and it's 'Day 2' of the much-anticipated 'Santa Rally.' A tantalizing season for traders, spanning 7 trading days from Dec 22nd to Jan 4th. Can you believe it has averaged 1.4% returns over the past 30 years?
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Given the track record of Economist’s magazine covers, this is yet another bullish indicator
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1. "American wealth is witnessing a seismic shift: the rise of the upper-middle class to mini-millionaire status, a trend that's more than just a statistical anomaly."
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@RayDalio
I always thought Dalio was stuck at an IB pitchdeck level of analysis. Halfway through “The Fund” I can’t take anything he writes seriously.
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The Lucrative World of Microcap Stocks
The comedian Rodney Dangerfield “never got no respect.”
Microcap stocks find themselves in the same predicament.
These publicly traded entities, each with a market capitalization below $500 million, are underdogs in the financial world.
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Henry Ford famously said “history is bunk.”
As Ford put it, “We want to live in the present, and the only history that is worth a tinker’s dam is the history we make today.”
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Small caps have now underperformed for seven consecutive years. The Russell 2000 small cap index has a combined market value of less than Apple.
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Six Strategies That Beat the Market for more than 200 Years
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Back after 3 weeks of being banned from Twitter. I’m told an AI bot had identified me as spam. I wonder if it was the same AI that said I went to Penn and UVA law school.
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"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
Charlie Munger
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1. Online news media is in a fierce battle for your attention, with sensationalized "clickbait" designed more to stir emotions than inform.
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Never ask a barber if you need a haircut
-Warren Buffett
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Missing a train is only painful if you run after it! Likewise, not matching the idea of success others expect from you is only painful if that’s what you are seeking. You stand above the rat race and the pecking order, not outside of it, if you do so by choice.
― Nassim Taleb
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So what was Munger’s secret of developing a mind that inspired so much admiration?
Munger spent his life studying the best ideas across all disciplines.
This practice helped him generate a set of “mental models” through which he sees the world.
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“I went looking for trouble, and I found it.”
-Charles Ponzi
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China's crackdown on officials' iPhone use has knocked $200bn off Apple's market value. That's the equivalent of one Netlifx, McDonald's, or Pfizer.
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"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." - Paul Samuelson
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8. "𝘐 𝘥𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘫𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯-𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘴; 𝘐 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘢𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘰𝘯𝘦-𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘱 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳." — 𝘞𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘯 𝘉𝘶𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘵𝘵
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@Cobratate
Your comment on the Romanian justice system is in the "No shit, Sherlock" category of insights. You should have known better. Read Kafka,("The Trial") Dostoyevski, Chekhov, while you're in the can. Foreigners have been getting fleeced in Eastern Europe for centuries.
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@ritholtz
Probably smarter to stay in your lane. Your political biases just piss off the 35% of the country that’s Republican and the 40% percent who are independent.
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Icahn’s $9 Billion Loss
“I’ve always told people there is nobody who can really pick the market on a short-term or an intermediate-term basis. Maybe I made the mistake of not adhering to my own advice. -Carl Icahn
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PayPal, once a pandemic darling, has since plummeted, down a staggering 80% from its peak. However, just like Meta's remarkable 194% bounce back in 2023, PayPal smells like a comeback. Could it be time to ride the wave back up?
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If I had done this, I would have seen that most of this money was being spent, at the solicitation of irresponsible real estate promoters and contractors, for the building of asphalt roads through undeveloped property which would not be occupied for fifty years."
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If boys were dramatically outperforming girls in school, policy makers would declare a crisis and urgently seek ways to reduce the disparity. In fact, girls are dramatically outperforming boys.
@WSJ
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An investment in knowledge pays the best interest
- Benjamin Franklin
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@saylor
@MemeingBitcoin
Well, you earned yourself a place in my upcoming book on the history of financial speculation. Not sure you'll like it.😅👋
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"The best business In the world’
-Buffett on Apple
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Psychology is probably the most important factor in the market and the one that is least understood
David Dreman
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One Big Short 2.0: Michael Burry, who famously profited from the 2008 housing bust, is back in the spotlight with a massive $1.6 billion bet against the stock market. Remember him? He became a household name after Michael Lewis' "The Big Short."
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1. "Last week was crucial for market gains. Missing just a few key trading days
and significantly impact your investment returns."
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CNN Fear and Gred at 16- exactly where it was a year ago!
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Today I’m celebrating the first birthday of my baby daughter, Vera. Much like her mother, Vera was born with a smile that never leaves her face.
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According to Robert Kennedy Jr on Joe Rogan:
Tucker was 10x CNN (4.5 million>350k
Rogan was 10x at peak >Tucker
(at 2:46 of Joe Rogan show)
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I've read over 300 books on trading/speculation over the past 25 years. Two have reached the status of cult classic.
Here's one.
Can you guess the other?
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Big tech stocks have powered U.S. dominance over the past decade.
Apple has a larger market cap than France. Microsoft is worth $400 billion more than Germany
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“It’s weird.” – Stanford professor William Sharpe on the 1987 stock market crash.
His mother called him to berate him: “Fifteen years of education, three advanced degrees, and all you can say is, ‘It’s weird’?”
Sharpe went on to win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990.
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"Look out, Apple! Microsoft is hot on your heels, aiming to become the most valuable S&P 500 company. With a market cap close to Apple's, Microsoft's edge in AI might just tip the scales. 📈
#TechRivalry
"
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If current events are a lie, imagine how false history is.
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For over two decades, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio boasted that his $168 billion hedge fund had found the "holy grail" of investing.
But like many of Wall Street's "Masters of the Universe," Dalio turned out to be just another bullshitter.
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This is really pretty astonishing
These events are 66 years apart. Where do you think we will be in 66 years from today?
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“Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life …
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There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience... is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.” -J.K. Galbraith
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It’s hard to believe a trader of Druckenmiller’s calibre would say do something like this! I bet this is apocryphal.
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“An equity investment portfolio is like a bar of soap; the more you touch it, the smaller it gets”.
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Just 1.5% of all stocks generated net wealth in the global markets between 1990 and mid-2020
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🧵 Thread 🧵In his paper "The Use of Knowledge in Society," the Austrian-British economist F.A. Hayek argued that the market price system is the best way to coordinate economic activity in a world where knowledge is dispersed and constantly changing.
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1. Charles Ellis, in his 1975 article "The Loser's Game," argues that for most, investing is akin to amateur tennis. Success lies not in hitting winners, but avoiding errors. A lesson still relevant today.
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5 of top 10 are former Communist countries
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Ready for a Financial Thrill Ride?
Welcome to the world of Microcap Moonshots where we hunt hidden gems before they take off to the stratosphere!
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1. Norway's $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, equivalent to over 30 Harvard endowments, had a rare miss in 2022, underperforming its benchmark for the first time in five years by 18 basis points.
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