Nicolás Saldías
@NicSaldias
Followers
5,507
Following
3,323
Media
1,899
Statuses
15,149
PhD @UofT_PolSci |Senior Analyst @TheEIU_LatAm 🇦🇷🇨🇱🇺🇾|Fmr Snr Researcher @TheWilsonCenter 's @LATAMProg & @ArgentinaProj |Views my own
DCA🇺🇲/YYZ🇨🇦/MVD🇺🇾
Joined May 2014
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Madison Square Garden
• 1402529 Tweets
Puerto Rico
• 501109 Tweets
Tony
• 212284 Tweets
Nazis
• 196257 Tweets
MSNBC
• 142193 Tweets
Bad Bunny
• 141355 Tweets
Latinos
• 140006 Tweets
Bears
• 139417 Tweets
Dr. Phil
• 110713 Tweets
Hail Mary
• 100317 Tweets
49ers
• 60241 Tweets
Cowboys
• 55852 Tweets
紙の保険証
• 41145 Tweets
Mexicans
• 33376 Tweets
せなけいこさん
• 26106 Tweets
絵本作家
• 24995 Tweets
McCarthy
• 22106 Tweets
#MondayMotivation
• 21711 Tweets
ねないこだれだ
• 20463 Tweets
George Lopez
• 18925 Tweets
Ñuñoa
• 16976 Tweets
#VINIDAY
• 15226 Tweets
Kittle
• 13754 Tweets
Purdy
• 13565 Tweets
BINI FOR VOGUE PH
• 12797 Tweets
Nick Bosa
• 11748 Tweets
#FTTB
• 11689 Tweets
Niners
• 10820 Tweets
Rayados
• 10484 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
🇺🇾I wrote for
@AmerQuarterly
that despite a good economy & a popular president that should bolster the incumbent party's electoral chances, Uruguay's presidential race's "competitiveness stands out in this otherwise benign context." I explain why 👇
0
12
16
@EricTopol
The vaccines are working as intended, which is reducing deaths and severe outcomes not cases. I’d say this a medical success.
36
90
765
Argentina’s test positivity rate is alarmingly high. The country is not doing enough tests to capture the full extent of the outbreak.
Estimates from
@imperialcollege
show Argentina had 1.7 million cases in August, but the country recorded only 212k (12% of est. cases).
27
416
725
Latin American countries that signed the communique in favour of Ukarine's peace proposal:
🇦🇷🇨🇱🇨🇷🇩🇴🇪🇨🇬🇹🇵🇪🇺🇾
Those who did not:
🇧🇷🇨🇴🇲🇽
22
130
564
🇨🇱An excellent speech by
@gabrielboric
that recognizes the loss as legitimate. He says it demonstrates the strength of Chile’s democracy as well as a clear mandate to re-start the constitutional rewriting process anew. No voter shaming, which should help to narrow polarization.
7
84
522
🇵🇪🇨🇩Congo has surpassed Peru as the world's second largest copper exporter (Chile still reigns as the first). Peru's mining sector has been weighed down by social unrest as well as poor governace (especially under Castillo), which has kept production below potential.
20
185
504
Lacalle says "enough" with Latin America's obession with useless and ideological institutions that only serve to paper over (or worse, excuse) the region's problems. Existing institutions barely work & new ones will only create redundancies.
9
97
406
🇨🇷🇻🇪Latin America’s minimum salary ranges from a high of US$603 in Costa Rica to a low of US$30 in Venezuela at the start of 2023. The bulk of the region’s minimum salary hover around US$300-400.
22
137
387
🇺🇾My favorite building in Montevideo, art deco masterpiece, Palacio Lapido.
11
18
386
“offenses go unpunished, driving citizens to fury…apathy & cynicism. Higher social spending has not…produced… improvements in human well-being…public education remains poor…All this has helped to discredit establishment parties & open the way for populist outsiders”
6
70
340
🇵🇪🇦🇷Velarde saying short and simple:“If the deficit is not controlled, dollarization will not work either. If the root problem is not fixed, it is not important to give cosmetic measures."
No hay otra opción
2
78
333
🇺🇾 It's concerning that Uruguay has among the lowest rates is educational achievement in the region. However, it's also the case that other countries likely have artificially high scores. One case that comes to mind is Peru, where inadequate, private universities inflate rates.
18
106
303
Successfully defend my dissertation today.
Nicolás Saldías, PhD
27
2
251
🇦🇷🇻🇪The normalization of Maduro is disturbing as populist left wing government's have simply embraced the dictator. Boric & Lacalle stand out for their defense of democracy & it's not a coincidence that Chile & Uruguay are the strongest democracies in the region.
2
54
231
A bad month for democracy in Latam:
🇵🇪Castillo attempts a self-coup
🇵🇪Dozens dead in protests
🇦🇷🇧🇴🇨🇴🇲🇽(🇨🇱) Left-wing gvts refuse to denounce Castillo & most recognize him as the president
🇦🇷 Fernández disobeys Supreme Court
🇧🇴 Opposition governor violently arrested
Any I missed?
8
38
212
🇺🇾🇨🇱Chile & Uruguay were the only emerging market economies to issue sovereign bonds in their own currency in 2021. This speaks to the value of having strong institutions. The risk for Chile is whether investors will get cold feet with the direction the new constitution is going.
5
96
199
🇺🇾🇨🇱🇦🇷According to the IMF, Uruguay is forecast to have the highest per capita income in the Southern Cone by 2027.
It wasn’t always this way, Uruguay was the laggard compared to Chile & Argentina. But consistent policies & political stability have now paid off.
2
53
200
🗳️Latin America's electoral calendar in 2023 includes three presidential elections: 🇦🇷🇵🇾🇬🇹.
The end of the year will be particularly interesting: Argentina's presdiential election (Oct/Nov) & Chie's referendum to ratify (or reject) the new constitution stands out as key votes.
4
50
196
🌐
@TheEIU
released it's Democracy Index for 2022. For Latin America, Chile regains its position as a full democracy, while Peru falls into the hybrid regime category. Uruguay becomes the country with the strongest democracy in the Americas.
Download 👉
3
96
193
🇺🇾🇺🇸A video from 1943 about Uruguay from the US state department. It frames Uruguay as an “outstandingly progressive and democratic land.”
Uruguay stood out then, as it does now, as an island political stability & liberty amid a turbulent world.
📽
6
46
177
Argentine just released its Q2 GDP figure and it showed a -16.2% decline, which compares unfavorably to its neighbors.
Q2 GDP decline (QoQ):
🇦🇷-16.2%
🇧🇷-9.7%
🇨🇱-13.2%
🇺🇾-9%
Compared to the region, Argentina’s crisis prone economy has a much deeper hole to claw out of.
4
102
174
To put into context how sudden the rise of Castillo was, CÑN did not have a photo for him for their infographic!
3
34
159
The covid-19 outbreak in Uruguay is growing exponentially, presenting a challenge to the government's strategy.
The P.1 variant accounts for about 80% of the cases in the border region of Rivera and has been identified in at least 7 departments, including Montevideo.
2
21
146
Homicide rates in Latin America:
Homicides/100,000 in 2022(2021):
🇻🇪40.4(40.9)
🇭🇳35.8(38.6)
🇨🇴26.1(26.8)
🇪🇨25.9(14)
🇲🇽25.2(26)
🇧🇿25(29)
🇧🇷18.8(18.5)
🇬🇹17.3(16.6)
🇬🇾15.1(15.2)
🇨🇷12.2(11.5)
🇵🇦11.5(12.8)
🇺🇾11.2(8.5)
🇵🇾8 (7.4)
🇸🇻7.8 (17.6)
🇳🇮6.7 (5.7)
🇨🇱4.6 (3.6)
@InSightCrime
9
50
141
🇨🇱 Long school closures will be one of the most deliterious effects of covid-19, leading to significant loses in human capital, social skills & other yet to be fully known psychological costs on children. Among OECD countries, Chile had its schools closed for the longest.
16
95
129
Chile and Uruguay, countries with strong healthcare systems, access to ample supplies of Chinese vaccines & low levels of corruption are on track to reach herd immunity this year, as per
@nytimes
. Most other countries in LATAM will lag behind.
0
49
131
🇺🇾Uruguay was among the only emerging market economies to issue global bonds in its own currency in 2020-21. Uruguay will issue an ESG bond, which will reward the country with lower interest rates due to it’s strong environmental track record. A rare privilege in the region.
0
33
130
Estimated time to reach 75% vaccine coverage in LATAM, per
@business
:
🇺🇾✅
🇨🇱 < 1 wk
🇵🇦1 mth
🇪🇨 1 mth
🇦🇷 2 mths
🇧🇷 2 mths
🇵🇾 2 mths
🇸🇻 2 mths
🇨🇷 4 mths
🇩🇴 4 mths
🇸🇷 4 mths
🇨🇴 5 mths
🇲🇽 6 mth
🇬🇾 6 mth
🇵🇪 7 mths
🇬🇹 8 mths
🇳🇮 18 mths
🇭🇳 19 mths
🇻🇪 20 mths
1
46
127
As expected, central bank president, Mario Marcel will be the new finance minister of Boric’s government. Expect a big rally of the peso tomorrow as Boric appears to commit to macroeconomic pragmatism.
3
38
120
🇺🇾Former presdient, Julio María Sanguinetti:
"Democracy...does not guarantee us a good government. What democracy assures us is the ability to remove a bad government by a normal, peaceful and predictable method”
A lot wisdom between these two men
2
32
119
Today is my last day at the
@TheWilsonCenter
's
@LATAMProg
.
I've accepted a new position as LATAM analyst
@TheEIU
's
@TheEIU_LatAm
.
I want to thank
@benjamingedan
&
@CindyArnson
for their amazing mentorship & the
@LATAMProg
team.
I'm excited to start this new chapter!
17
1
121
🇺🇾🇺🇸Four US Senators are in Uruguay to meet with Lacalle. Bipartisan support exists fr the US to consider a trade agreement with Uruguay as it is an ideal partner if the US wants to support the region's democracies & hedge against Chinese influence.
4
23
115
🇺🇾Uruguay's reputation for stable politics & policies is paying dividends with Microsoft opening its third AI research facility outside of the US in Montevideo (Shanghai & Munich being the others). A big move that will attract more firms to invest.
1
24
114
🗳️Second round results in Latin America, % difference (latest election)
🇵🇪0.3%
🇧🇷1.5%*
🇺🇾1.6%
🇨🇴3.1%
🇪🇨4.8%
🇨🇷5.6%
🇨🇱11.7%
*98% counted
3
45
110
Low income voters voted more for Kast than for Boric, despite the latter offering more public services. Kast offers low income voters, who experience crime more often, a mano dura response. It is also another example that the class base of left & right have flipped.
6
23
108
The scale of the victory is best understood by looking at the dominance of Milei geographically.
Massa only won three provinces: Buenos Aires, Formosa and Santiago de Estero.
Peronism is in a crisis of representation & Milei has brought libertarianism populism to power
2
46
108
It seems that Castillo's PM is asking (begging?) Pedro Francke to become the economy minister via Twitter...
Eco. Pedro Francke tiene todo nuestro respaldo para la aplicación de la política económica de estabilidad expresada en el plan de bicentenario sin corrupción en el país.
Trabajaremos en conjunto y unidad por la patria.
Guido Bellido Ugarte.
Presidente de Consejo de Ministros.
3K
735
4K
4
22
97
Let's unpack:
1️⃣ Cuban regime has been expert in laundering their dictatorship through PR campaigns, like exporting doctors. What's elided is that they exploit them with low wages & political control.
2️⃣democracy=elections & that requires civil liberties. Cuba has neither.
La vicepresidenta Francia Márquez no cree que Cuba es una dictadura. Dice que Colombia sí lo es. Aquí el interesante fragmento de su entrevista con SEMANA
5K
3K
8K
4
25
101
🇺🇾Traditionally Uruguay's largest export product was beef, but large-scale investments in forestry & pulp plants will make pulp the largest export good this year with the opening of the massive UPM plant in the interior of the country.
1
24
97
🇦🇷 Argentina's politics (as well as many other countries) can't really be understood as left or right, but as between populists or pragmatists.
-"Who's your preferred candidate?"
-"Cristina"
-"She's not running"
-"No? Then I'll support Milei"
2
17
92
According to
@anticorruption
, under Macri, Argentina saw a major improvement on its perception of corruption score. Increasing by 41 spots in global rankings, it's one of the most dramatic improvements recorded.
A close eye will be on the gvt to see if there will be backsliding
3
58
92
🇧🇴Bolivia is going to become a full member of Mercosur. Attempts to create a more flexible & pro-market Mercosur is likely dead. It also raises risks for the EU FTA as Bolivia's poor democratic track record & deforestation issues will give fodder to EU skeptics & Milei (anti-MAS)
#AHORA
| Senado brasileño aprueba ingreso de Bolivia al MERCOSUR.
▪️ Solo falta la promulgación por parte del presidente de Brasil,
@LulaOficial
▪️ Bolivia 🇧🇴 debe adoptar el acuerdo normativo vigente del Mercado Común del Sur de forma gradual, teniendo un plazo de 4 años a
4
12
28
4
38
91
A new tradition in Latin American politics is a half-joking map of the political and ideological landscape of Latin America done by
@bloggingsbyboz
.
"categorizing countries as simply “left” or “right” is an oversimplification that loses a lot of interesting context and nuance."
1
21
92
🇨🇱How does that make any sense? Why does the left in the region tie itself into knots to not call events by what they are, like a coup in Peru under Castillo?
This isn't (shouldn't) be political, and the fact that it is makes me worried about the normalization of these acts.
📌
#ENacional
Canciller Urrejola (
@UrrejolaRREE
): "Yo creo que (Pedro Castillo) no es un golpista, pero yo sí creo que él no cumplió con las normas constitucionales"
📡 Sigue la señal en vivo ➡️
366
151
222
3
23
86
🇦🇷With 61% reporting, Milei is not only the most voted candidate, but his party is currently the most voted. With so many votes counted, it seems unlikely that the shares will change too much. Peronism performs very poorly & Massa got less than what the polls predicted.
5
24
88
Ex-presidents in LATAM under indictment or convicted of crimes:
🇦🇷CFK
🇧🇷 Lula
🇧🇷Temer
🇨🇴Uribe
🇪🇨Correa
🇵🇪Toledo
🇵🇪Humala
Am I missing any?
The point: “Lawfare" isn’t real, increasingly powerful and independent judiciaries are.
22
16
86
Chile’s daily vaccination rate is the third highest in the world!
1
34
86
¿Por qué Argentina y Uruguay son tan diferentes políticamente? Hablé con
@sebastianfest
de
@infobae
sobre mi tesis doctoral para dar una respuesta basada en la historia de ambos países.
15
25
85
🇺🇾 Against all odds, Uruguay is seeing results from it's push for freer trade.
But, as I wrote for
@AmerQuarterly
, it's still early days & the path is full of risks.
"If the world isn’t going to open up to Uruguay, Uruguay must open up to the world."
3
12
86
🇺🇾📊 Uruguay's GINI coefficient (a measure of income inequality) is well below the Latin American average & mirrors levels seen in the OECD, which helps explain the country's political stability.
GINI index:
🇺🇾38.9
🇺🇲41.5 (2019)
🇦🇷42.4
🇨🇱44.9 (2020)
🇨🇷48.2 (2019)
🇻🇪60.3 (2022)
3
25
84
🇺🇾🇬🇧 I'm in London & seeing the iconic underground logo I remembered that the inventor of the font for the subway system was actually born in San José, Uruguay. His name was Edward Johnston.
2
14
84
🇻🇪Great map from
@infobae
on the countries that accepted Maduro's fradulent results, which ones rejected them and those that are calling for a transparent count.
Mexico should be added to the list of countries in orange following AMLO's unfortunate comments.
8
46
79
🇵🇪The more I know about what's happening in Peru, the less I know what will happen in Peru.
5
17
80
🇺🇾I don't agree w/ the framing of this article. Yes, there were cases of corruption & its a valid critique of the govt not of Uruguayan democracy.
Uruguay's independent judiciary investigated & convictions were handed down, a strength not a weakness.
3
8
76
🇦🇷 Regardless of who becomes president it is likely that no party will have a majority in Congress. Milei will be the most at risk of legislative gridlock & brinkmanship. His aggressive anti-politician discourse will make it tough to make coalitions. Governability will be weak.
6
14
76
🇨🇱In a twist of fate, the constitutional reform process that was supposed to undo Chile's free market model may actually keep it unchanged as it seems likley that right-of-centre parties will win a majority of seats in the constitutional council elxn.
4
32
77
🇦🇷Milei faces a very complicated governability challenge as his party doesn't even have a third of seats in either house of Congress. Argentina's political system has grown increasingly fragmented, which is bad for political stability and for passing reforms.
4
12
72
🇺🇾🇨🇱🇨🇷An interesting analysis in
@AmerQuarterly
about which countries in Latin America are best placed to reap the benefits from nearshoring. The chart below shows is that the region's strongest democracies are best placed, which also underscores the importance of friendshoring
4
26
71
🇦🇷Milei is currently ahead in the majority’s of the provinces. Why is this surprising? Milei’s gubernatorial candidates all performed very badly in provincial elections. Milei was right: this election is about him. Mileismo (it’s a thing?) is a populist movement par excellence.
0
26
69
🇦🇷This was on Argentinian news today. The host was explaining Milei’s policy regarding public order that bans street blockades using toys.
6
13
67
Boric won a large margin and a clear mandate, but so did Bachelet and Piñera, but both quickly became unpopular and lame ducks. The question is whether or not Boric will buck this trend.
There are reasons to be worried: high inflation, low growth & polarization pose risks.
5
20
65
🇻🇪Countries in Latin America that recognize Edmundo González as the president of Venezuela:
🇦🇷🇨🇷🇪🇨🇵🇦🇵🇪🇺🇾
Their average Democracy Index score: 6.95/10
Countries that recognize Maduro as president
🇧🇴🇨🇺🇳🇮
Their average Democracy Index score: 3/10
4
30
66
🇵🇪Peruvian cuisine is South America's gift to the world.
1
16
63
According to
@cepal_onu
, poverty in LATAM increased by 3.2% in 2020 to reach 33.7%, erasing 12 years of poverty reduction. Some countries performed worse than others.
⬆️in poverty rate, 2019-20 (% pts):
🇦🇷: 9.8
🇲🇽: 9.1
🇪🇨: 7.8
🇵🇪: 6.5
🇧🇴: 6.4
🇭🇳: 6.3
🇸🇻: 6.0
🇨🇴: 5.9
3
54
62
🇨🇺Unreal numbers: "Cuba is undergoing a severe recession, which has led to 850,000 arriving in the US since 2022, and a national population depletion of 18%, according to El País."
5
28
61
🇵🇪Early elections in Peru (if they happen) remain wide open as no likely candidate breaks the 5% mark. This is fertile ground for authoritarians or complete outsiders with little to no governing experience to win. In other words, Peru's political dysfunction is likely to continue
7
35
62
On a personal note, this has been the hardest week of my career as an analyst.
9
2
62
Today Rufo, the family dog in Uruguay, died. It's a day of immense sadness for me. I believe in doggy heaven and I'm sure he's there. 🙏 Te voy a extrañar mucho.
5
1
61
A sobering image that is almost inconceivable in most other countries in the region (and in the US). Despite a highly polarised election the two leading candidates in Chile's election met in person offering a symbolic end to the election.
1
4
59
🇵🇪Business confidence indicators surged after Castillo’s ouster. This reflects the cost Castillo’s unstable & poor governance had on expectations on future performance of the economy. This led to economic growth below potential & has harmed future growth through lower investment
6
18
58
🇦🇷Milei performs well in the poorer neighborhoods of Buenos Aires city, which shows how Peronism (and the left) are failing to connect with working class voters. Likely those that are informal workers, young men & those who don’t rely on state subsidies.
1
25
56
🇨🇱In a major blow to Boric's agenda, the lower house rejects his progressive tax reform and it is unlikely that it will meet the threshold in the Senate to pass. To be reconsidered, it would need to pass with a qualified majority, which is unlikely.
5
16
56
🇧🇴🔋🇨🇳🇷🇺Bolivia signs a deal with China & Russia to develop the massive Uyuni salt flat's lithium resources. The MAS govt has been sympathetic to Putin's Russia & maintains its strident anti-US stance, which has given both China & Russia a foothold.
4
26
56
🇺🇾🇺🇲Lacalle makes a surprise visit to the White House to meet Biden, which likely underscores the fast moving developments related to the recent announcement of a rare bipartisan bill by prominent senators to open the US market to most Uruguayan goods.
2
23
56
🇺🇾⚡️Uruguay went from being a major importer of electricity in the 2000s to a major exporters of power after 2013. The main reason why has to do with the large scale investments in wind (& a lesser degree solar) energy. As a result, drought no longer costs the country billions.
1
10
55
🇨🇱According to
@Ipsos
Broken System Index, Chile has seen a strong reversal in anti-system sentiment. The fever of anti-establishment sentiment has broken after the failure of constitutional reform process. The new constitutional reform process highlights this shift.
1
20
55
Milei has a clear mandate to govern and to begin the process of dollarization. It'll be hard for Congress to oppose Milei with this landslide victory.
Expect social unrest and a period of extremely weak governability over the next weeks with the risk of hyperinflation lurking
He's the vote tally with 89% votes counted. Milei crushed it and a historic defeat of Peronism.
1
4
15
3
19
56
Eagerly awaiting the presentation by
@Kicillofok
at the
@TheWilsonCenter
hosted by the
@ArgentinaProj
&
@benjamingedan
5
22
54
🇵🇪Only 6% of Peruvians believe that the country is progressing, while 67% say things are getting worse. Pessmism has been increasing steadily since 2016 when the political crisis (PPK, Lavo Jato) began and got worse under Castillo and is likely to remain bad under Boluarte.
3
29
53
🇨🇱Boric stands out for his criticisms of Ortega, which distinguishes him from other leftist leaders in the region that prefer to equivocate. Why? I think this may be a function of Boric's age as millennials aren't as tainted by legacy of the Cuban revolution & the US reaction.
2
11
52
Will South American countries be able to break the commodity trap and go up the value chain to create commercially viable lithium-ion batteries? It'll be very difficult, especially since each country is charting their own course.
4
20
52
🇦🇷🇨🇱Milei wants to turn Argentina into a rich country again. First, Argentina needs to catch up to the rest of the world. Up until the late 1980s Chile performed as well as Argentina, then pro-market reforms and democratic governance (rule of law) turbocharged growth.
1
23
54
🇺🇾🇧🇷 In a savvy move, Lacalle invited Uruguay's elder statemen: José Mujica & Julio Sanguinetti to join him at Lula's inauguration.
This is a signal to Lula that Uruguay is broadly united regarding policy, including seeking FTAs outside of Mercosur. 1/2
2
6
53
🇺🇸🪢🇺🇾🪢🇨🇳Lacalle will be going to China this November to meet Xi to push along the stalled free trade agreement, but he is now also headed to DC to meet with Biden. It's clear that Uruguay is being courted (and courting) the world's greatest powers.
2
18
52
🇦🇷 Unbelievable, but Milei says that he'd be willing to give the ministry of human capital (which would include labor & education) to the left. He now says he doesn't care about their Marxist ideology, because they know best about social issues.
It's mind bending...
🚨 Milei propone incorporar miembros de la Izquierda al Ministerio de Capital Humano: “En ese tema son los que más saben, y pueden ayudar, por lo tanto me importa tres rábano lo que piensen de la teoría valor-trabajo”
#MarxistasConMilei
#Milei2023
2K
1K
8K
6
12
52
🇦🇷Milei's govt is transforming into Macri 2.0. w a cabinet w key figures in Macri's govt
Policy wise, this is positive as these individuals have experience & credibility
Politically, this is risky for Milei who risks being overwhelmed by Macrismo & may alienate his base
6
18
52
🚨Far-left candidate, Pedro Castillo of Perú Libre, has taken a lead in the first exit poll, while the race for second place is hotly contested. 🚨
Source:
@larepublica_pe
1
12
50
🇦🇷🇺🇾Uruguayans are flooding into Argentina to buy goods & services at rock bottom prices as a extremely favorable exchange rate, price controls & subsidies for goods like gasoline (currently facing shortages in Argentina). However, this has harmed Uruguay’s economy.
4
20
52
Uruguay is a step closer to being a full member of the OECD.
When Uruguay joins, it’ll be the fifth LATAM nation to join the club of nations w/ advanced policy frameworks.
OECD membership in LATAM:
🇲🇽 1994
🇨🇱 2010
🇨🇴 2020
🇨🇷 2020*
*invited to join
1
14
51
🗳️Some big elections in Latin America in 2024.
Elections:
🇸🇻 February 2nd (Bukele to win)
🇵🇦 May 5th (opposition likely to win)
🇩🇴 May 19th (incumbent Luis Abinader to win)
🇲🇽 June 2nd (Claudia Sheinbaum of incumbent MORENA to win)
🇺🇾October 27th (too close to call)
🇻🇪???
6
17
50
🇺🇾🇦🇷 Desde Uruguay, ¡vamos Argentina! Para la patria grande.
2
1
51
🇦🇷Great map of how Peronismo/Kirchnerismo completely lost the interior of the country, with the exception of it's core base in the NW of the country, where patronage networks are strongest. They also retained their other key base: the conurbano bonaerense, but margins were narrow
🇦🇷🗳️🦁
#Elecciones2023
| 🟣Javier Milei rompe el mapa electoral de
#Argentina
, se convierte en el primer candidato no peronista en ganar las
#PASO
: una victoria “federal”, CABA y BsAs se le dificulta.
⁉️Dato: el ganador de las PASO siempre ha ganado la primera vuelta.
8
154
599
0
27
47
@jburnmurdoch
The chart is a bit misleading, the question asked is not about science qua science, but trust in the scientific community. These are not the same thing.
5
1
49
What stands out to be from the exit polls from Peru's election is how stark the regional division of the vote is.
The margins for Castillo in some parts of the interior, like Puno are enormous.
Whoever wins the election will have to to address long-standing regional tensions
2
20
48
🇦🇷🇨🇳 Real politik:
As expected, Milei changes his tune on China. The hard reality is the China is Argentina's largest export market & has a US$18bn Swap line that Argentina is using and may need to tap more of to act as bridge financing until the harvest season next year.
Agradezco al Presidente Xi Jinping las felicitaciones y los buenos deseos que me ha hecho llegar a través de su carta. Le envío mis más sinceros deseos de bienestar para el pueblo de China.
4K
7K
108K
1
12
48
🚨Absolutely unexpected results from Argentina.🚨
With 70% counted, Alberto Fernández did not increase his vote share from the PASO.
Macri did. Macri got 41.4%, up from 32.1% in August, a gain of almost 10%!
The polls were way off, again.
7
15
49