Notre Dame Football Stats & Analytics
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Run by @cooperklaus | Data from @cfbfastr | Shake Down the Numbers | Email: ndfootballanalytics @gmail .com
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Here's the big news I've been sitting on
My first article on
@TheAthletic
published today!
I spent the offseason building a bayesian QB evaluation model and we turned it into an article ranking all 69 Power 5 QBs, with commentary from
@davidubben
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Assuming Notre Dame is done for the day, here's where their recruiting classes stack up from 2010-2024
Marcus Freeman and his staff have assembled a string of classes that, in terms of quantity and quality, we haven't seen in the modern rankings era
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A lot of people need to formally apologize to Ian Book.
You know who you are
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Wanted to add some perspective to Notre Dame's recruiting class today
Aside from the 2013 class we never saw this level of recruiting under Brian Kelly
It's understandable to be disappointed in losing elite players, Marcus Freeman has still significantly improved the recruiting
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General PSA to not tweet at college kids who play for your favorite team after a loss
Just don’t
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Whatever happens over the next 3 and a Half hours, Notre Dame earned this opportunity
Enjoy it
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‘23 vs. Ohio State
37% Early Down Pass Rate
39% Overall Pass Rate
0.45 EPA/Pass
‘22 vs. Ohio State
34% Early Down Pass Rate
44% Overall Pass Rate
0.11 EPA/Pass
How you throw *less often* than last year with Sam Hartman as your QB is…I don’t even know
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Freeman wanting to just hand it off immediately after getting in FG range is concerning
FG range is a sliding scale of probability, not a binary situation
If Estime gets stuffed, he seemed content with a 50-60% chance of making the kick
Even 10 yards adds > 10% probability
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There will be a narrative that part of the reason Notre Dame lost is their inability to convert 3rd Downs
The truth is Notre Dame failed on early downs and put themselves in a terrible position on 3rd Down
Their average 3rd Down Distance is 8.8 yards
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Notre Dame giving up 21 points on Alabama’s first five drives remains a very good effort from the Irish defense as ugly as it was at times
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Thank you all for taking this ride with us. It was an amazingly fun season and we’re just getting started. We have so many people to thank for helping us grow our audience like we have.
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2022 Mackey Award Finalists - Total Receiving EPA
Michael Mayer, PFF's top graded Tight End in the country, easily deserves to win this award and it isn't really close
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I want to make sure this gets proper credit
Marcus Freeman went for it on 4th & 1 from the ND 33 and Mike Elko punted on 4th & less than 1 from the A&M 24 in a tied game in the 4th quarter
Notre Dame made smarter decisions and was rewarded for it, LOVE to see it
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Here is Marcus Freeman's resume as a defensive coordinator
This is the guy for the job
Pros:
-Elite recruiter
-Took Cincinnati's defense from very bad to ELITE
Cons:
-Young
-Hasn't been a head coach
Inexperienced does not mean undeserving
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It feels like Notre Dame wants to run a marathon in a market that’s moving like a 40-Yard Dash
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Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah had the 2nd highest
@PFF
slot coverage grade in 2020
But 5 linebackers and 2 RUNNING BACKS go in the 1st round over him?
Just so disrespectful
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Thanks everyone for following along for another season!
Will be taking some time to unplug and work on some bigger projects so won't be posting super frequently but expect a few deeper analyses throughout the offseason
Grateful to everyone who supports my work and Go Irish!
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Notre Dame has run on 13 of 15 first downs and have used play action maybe once?
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Credit to Kyle Shanahan, when a prospect like Ian Book is available you get to whatever position is needed to secure him.
Filed to ESPN: Dolphins trading No. 3 overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick (SF’s comp pick for Robert Saleh hiring) and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, per sources.
Blockbuster deal with massive ramifications for years to come.
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Hey everyone, this is Cooper and I have some news to announce that will impact our content
On Monday I will be joining The Athletic as a Data Analyst on the business side. I’m really excited to be working in sports full-time and can’t wait to get started
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Hartman struggled today and ND doesn’t have any top end pass catchers without Evans
At the same time, how are you putting your players in a position to succeed when you run the ball over 65% on early downs and refuse to use play action against one of the best defenses
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Per PFF, Notre Dame used play action on 2 of 36 dropbacks yesterday
I don’t know what to say but you just have to use it more than 5% of the time, just have to
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Heavy personnel on your own 20 on 2nd & 2
Run for a loss
Leads to a must pass situation and nobody is open
That’s just not good playcalling, what’s the point of heavy personnel on 2nd down when you continue to be so predictable out of the package
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Throws 10+ Yards Downfield (PFF)
Sam Hartman
22-36 (61.1%)
670 yards
8 TDs (all on throws over 20+ yards downfield)
0 INTs
Kyle McCord
11-29 (37.9%)
385 yards
4 TDs
1 INT
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Hartman got tackled by his neck but that's roughing the passer, sure
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Jack Coan was pressured on only 29.7% of his dropbacks before leaving the game yesterday (11 of 37)
He took 5 sacks and he took 1 more in a clean pocket
I like Coan’s passing but he continues to lack either the pocket awareness, mobility, or both to handle pressured situations
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Notre Dame used play action on 3 of 26 dropbacks (11.5%) in a game where they ran the ball on 61% of their plays
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Ian Book is the F***** man, I’m out of things to say
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Caleb Williams under pressure on 46.7% of his dropbacks last night
Was 18 for 24 for 159 yards when not pressured
5 for 13 for 40 yards, 1TD and 3 INTs when pressured
Pass rushers were probably the MVPs of the game
Data from PFF
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Hey guys
There were ZERO runs on that drive
This is amazing
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At some point Notre Dame needs to say screw it and let Sam Hartman take over this game
They have a massive quarterback advantage and they’re negating some of it
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Audric Estime appreciation post
Comparing his rushing efficiency to the Doak Walker Award Semifinalists
Snubbed
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Notre Dame offense easy button usage
Play action rate
First 2 games: 9%
vs. Purdue: 28%
Motion rate
First 2 games: 49%
vs. Purdue: 67%
Snap motion rate
First 2 games: 15%
vs. Purdue: 29%
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Sam Hartman is an elite college QB who has been both highly productive and graded really well (PFF) the last two years
He's one of the most aggressive downfield throwers and should unlock a lot more of the offense
An AWESOME addition by Notre Dame
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Was able to find this from a 538 article (data from the 2019 season so things may have changed since then)
The increase in completion percentage when using play action vs. not was actually *greater* when facing man coverage than zone
Gerad Parker said Notre Dame only ran two play-action passes at Clemson because the Tigers played a man-heavy defense.
"There's no eye conflict," Parker said. "If I'm guarding Pete (
@PeteSampson_
), I'm guarding Pete."
More from Parker, via
@BGInews
:
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Tommy Rees losing Ian Book's 3rd Down heroics has really exposed him as a playcaller
Never more so than today
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MASSIVE mistake kicking that field goal
It doesn't matter that Shrader made it, this can't happen
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It is extremely difficult to envision how Notre Dame misses the playoff now that Florida has two losses
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FLORIDA STATE ANALYTICS PREVIEW
At long last Notre Dame football is back! The No. 9 Irish will take on Florida State in Tallahassee this Sunday night, and we've got the numbers to break it down from an analytics perspective. (1/14)
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With Tyler Buchner in the game yesterday Notre Dame ran 5 of 8 times and has now run on 27 of 35 of his snaps on the season
Pretty easy for the defenses to load up against the run
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Here's a chart showing every opponent's EPA/Play in all of their games excluding Notre Dame, and how they performed against Notre Dame
Bar = EPA/Play in all other games
ND Logo = Game vs. ND
In 10 out of 12 games the Irish held the opponent to under their season average
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📣ANNOUNCEMENT📣
We're really excited to announce that for the 2022 season we will be partnering with the
@3andGFoundation
on a donation campaign around Notre Dame Football, starting with the Blue-Gold Game!
It's called 3rd and GOLD and here's how it works ⬇️
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If you guys have any analytics questions about Marcus Freeman and Tommy Rees let us know
We’ve got some downtime before the postseason
As long as we have the data we’ll try to get to as many as we can
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Get Marcus Freeman in Jack Swarbrick’s office right now
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Quick breakdown of Mike Denbrock's offensive coordinator career
Has been a pass-first coach for the majority of his career, even before coaching Jayden Daniels
His offenses have had some of the lowest play action rates, but the results have been strong everywhere he's been
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That was a disaster sequence
Played not to turn it over (and almost did!) instead of trying to ice the game
This could come back to haunt them, up 4 is not a safe place to be
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In weeks 0-3, Sam Hartman was under pressure on 22% of his dropbacks (10th lowest of 136 QBs)
Since week 4 he’s been under pressure 43% of the time, the 19th highest rate
Data from PFF
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Rapid Reaction:
-Clark Lea is awesome
-Tommy Rees needs to trust Ian Book
-Offense was better in the 2nd half but left much to be desired
-Where is Braden Lenzy??
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USC still needs 3 touchdowns, field goal doesn’t change that
But now instead of going 95 yards for the first one (if you don’t convert 4th down) you’re gifting them 20 yards
Win probability is still really high but what is the point of this
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Brian Kelly’s Irish have absolutely beaten up on the upper middle class of college football since 2017
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What a rollercoaster but great to end the season with a win
Thanks for following along for another year!
A lot of content planned should a certain QB announce he is coming to South Bend, and a project we're working on that looks at player development in a new way
Go Irish!
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Ian Book had a Pick Six against Miami early in his Notre Dame career
So that means he'll be the winningest QB in Saints history when he retires according to
#analytics
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Jereemiyah Love and Jadarian Price continue to generate a lot of missed tackles and yards after contact
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Congrats to Northern Illinois
Ending the game without using your last timeout is just brutal clock management
Defense rebounded from a poor first half and gave Notre Dame a chance in the second half
Just absolutely embarrassing from the offense, no sugarcoating it
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This Iowa team won 10 games in the big ten? And we need to join a conference to play against good competition? Interesting to say the least
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This is an excellent hire by Brian Kelly and Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman is a rising star and did awesome work with Cincinnati, turned them into a borderline elite unit
This past season Cincinnati gave up -0.06 EPA/Rush and -0.33 (!!!) EPA/Pass
Huge get
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Jack Coan was under pressure on 41.7% of dropbacks yesterday
He was only responsible for 2 pressures according to PFF
Josh Lugg, Cain Madden, and Tosh Baker all finished with grades below 60 (replacement level)
Worst game of the season for the O-Line so far
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Notre Dame play action % and rank
Denbrock
2014: 20.5% (74th)
Sanford
2015: 18.9% (103rd)
2016: 17.5% (114th)
Long
2017: 32.7% (47th)
2018: 35.5% (31st)
2019: 32.2% (52nd)
Rees
2020: 22.4% (96th)
2021: 29.3% (66th)
2022: 30.5% (55th)
Parker
2023: 21.3% (114th)
Data from PFF
Per PFF, Notre Dame used play action on 2 of 36 dropbacks yesterday
I don’t know what to say but you just have to use it more than 5% of the time, just have to
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Choosing not to contain the edge is an interesting schematic choice
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Xavier Watts has a 99.9 PFF grade tomorrow or we riot
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5 yards of field goal distance is not worth taking a timeout and the opportunity for the clock to run out before USC spikes it
There have been a lot of questionable coaching decisions this year, I can’t even understand the logic of that
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Brandon Joseph PFF Grades
Overall:
2020 83.4
2021 64.1
Coverage
2020 88.5
2021 77.2
Run Defense
2020 67.3
2021 38.1
Northwestern used him a lot in the box, which doesn’t align with his strengths as a Pass Defender
A slight adjustment there could pay massive dividends for ND
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Riley Leonard is maybe the best rushing quarterback in college football
Development as a passer is the biggest priority for him and Notre Dame, but the upside is definitely high
Will have more content on this soon
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Undefeated again. We may be critical at times but we all should appreciate the heights these coaches have taken this program to. Another great day to be a Notre Dame football fan.
Thats enough of the bird app for today, we’ll be back with our recap and Clemson preparation soon!
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This might be contrarian (maybe not) but I am not convinced today's result was a reflection of a massive talent gap between Notre Dame and the top tier
In my opinion it was an abject failure of the coaching staff to recognize after 4 months why they are 10-0
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Excited to announce that we have joined the team
@OneFootDown
as contributors! We will continue to post threads here but will also be posting some longer pieces on the site. Thanks to all our followers for helping us get here and we’re excited to keep it going!
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🚨NEW PODCAST: MILES BOYKIN INTERVIEW 🚨
For Episode 18 of Shake Down The Numbers we were joined by former ND and current Baltimore Ravens WR Miles Boykin (
@MBoykin814
)!
Miles posted 1206 collegiate Yds, 77 Recs, 11 TDs, and is most prestigiously the first guest ever on SDTN!
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Looks like a
#5
ranking Is likely.
It is what it is.
Let’s win a NY6 and start the
#FreemanEra
the right way.
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A play action touchdown pass? In this economy?
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I think Notre Dame is now forcing themselves to throw in the end zone now by burning that timeout?
With Pitt’s offense being Pitt’s offense not sure what value there is in burning the clock there
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Tommy Rees is tanking Notre Dame's chances
The broadcast has said multiple times now he wanted to get Kyren 10 catches
Well he has 4 for 14 Yards and that throw to Avery Davis was the first one attempted to a WR
Coaching disaster
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Do not blame the offensive line
1. Why are you calling a rollout with Jack Coan when everyone knows his mobility limitations?
2. That sack is 1000% on Coan. There was not any pressure, he just stepped into it
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"He caught it but he's just short"
Kirk it's 4th and 8
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Ian Book is in his 5th year of college football and 3rd year starting. Let him throw the football on first and second down.
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Notre Dame through 2 drives
17% snap motion rate
0% play action rate
0 designed runs for Riley Leonard
It's early, but they are not doing what made them successful at Purdue last week and it just doesn't really make sense
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FLORIDA STATE ANALYTICS RECAP
The Irish pulled off a nail biting victory in Tallahassee on Sunday, taking a commanding 38-20 lead only to ultimately win in OT. While we'll take any road wins early in the season, let's dive into the numbers for a deeper look. (1/15)
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I would want more possessions for my elite QB, but to each their own
Notre Dame is 120th out of 133 teams in plays per minute. They also run the ball a lot. Better be ultra efficient because possessions will be limited.
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Quick reminder: If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah’s tape doesn’t fit your scheme, it’s on your scheme.
Why is Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah still on the board?
I reached out to a few scouts. Here are their replies:
"Scheme fit is really hard"
"No LB coaches at his pro day"
"He's 214 pounds"
"Mental lapses, not fast"
"Tape is fun, doesn't translate"
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Liam Eichenberg Draft Profile
The knock on Eichenberg is he's not a "wow" prospect, but he sure played at an elite level in 2020
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You absolutely cannot kick this field goal, what in the world
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We made some charts breaking down the defensive performances of all of the candidates Pete listed in this article (we excluded Al Golden since we don't have any recent college data for him)
First up, Doug Belk
Only one year of experience but what a year it was
Sometimes coaching searches can appear chaotic on the outside as they’re happening. But a look under the hood of Marcus Freeman’s hunt for his next defensive coordinator reveals order.
On the names to know as Notre Dame moves toward a critical hire.
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Just going to say if Texas doesn’t get in and Alabama does what is the point of playing the games
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Notre Dame played scared to lose most of the game with Sam Hartman as the QB
Outplayed them the entire game, but costly coaching decisions (taking the ball out of Hartman’s hands, giving up at the end of the 1st half) cost them
Coached themselves into a vulnerable position
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Was that an 11-man box that Notre Dame willingly ran into?
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Morrison got called for unsportsmanlike conduct for defending himself from an unsportsmanlike Wolfack player
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RECAP THREAD: ACC Championship Game
The Irish fell short in their biggest test of the season, and we believe a poor offensive game plan, not a massive talent gap, was the driver of the loss. The Irish have good coaches but adjustments need to be made, and here is how. (1/18)
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Notre Dame is somewhere around 80% running with Tyler Buchner, and defenses have clearly keyed in
Just terrible coaching
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50-Play Moving Average of EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush
The ground game has come alive the the last few weeks and has been just as efficient as the passing offense
With Coan and the pass-catchers surpassing their early season production the offense is really hitting its stride
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Also, that was a play action pass.
If you're in to tracking that kind of thing.
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There’s something poetic about Notre Dame’s CFP hopes hinging on the play of Jack Coan and Graham Mertz
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Luke Fickell's career at Cincinnati as Head Coach
Fickell would be a solid option as coach having led a massive turnaround at Cincinnati
Freeman is still our preferred candidate but certainly there are worse options for a Plan B
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One more look with explosive (15+ yards) vs. negative plays (<0 yards)
Not necessarily saying Estime should win the award, but to not be considered a semifinalist is something else
Audric Estime appreciation post
Comparing his rushing efficiency to the Doak Walker Award Semifinalists
Snubbed
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Are we allowed to admit kicking a field goal was a mistake now?
MASSIVE mistake kicking that field goal
It doesn't matter that Shrader made it, this can't happen
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Jack Coan throws for 350 Yards and 4 touchdowns and you have 3 timeouts
Why exactly are you not trying to gain some yardage
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Given the shelf life of Running Backs in the NFL this is a no-brainer decision for Kyren Williams
Best of luck at the next level!
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Here is our Preseason Top 25
The rankings are determined by how much a team would be favored against an average team on a neutral field
The model is a bit lower on Notre Dame than the coaches poll but still views them as a quality team
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