Mr. Doppy
@MrDoppy
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1,977
Following
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188
Statuses
1,023
Loophole detector and fine print reader extraordinaire.
United States
Joined August 2018
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Pinned Tweet
My gambling life is so glamorous… I’m sitting alone at a state border, sweating a $30k TXAM hoops bet, tailgating solo with cold, day old pizza in my trunk.
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When I was 27, I was broke, stuttered terribly, and couldn’t find a job. My dad died that year and I found his copy of Beat The Dealer, by
@EdwardOThorp
. It’s been one of my most prized possessions ever since and recently became even more special to me. So grateful. 🥹🙏
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I’m going to need surgery to repair a heart valve in Oct./Nov. It’s the ultimate bridge jumper with a big edge. Until I’ve recovered, beat casinos, earn credit card points, hack free gas, but, most importantly, have fun and make friends while you do it. That’s winning.
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I’m ok with books limiting players, it’s part of the hustle. However,
@BetRivers
offers me a $500 free bet for $5k in NBA handle and now my limits are too low to redeem the free bet with even horrendous efficiency. That should be illegal, at least honor the spirit of the promo.
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GWAE has been the soundtrack to my life as an advantage player. It entertained me, educated me, and offered a valuable sense of community. Every episode and every guest gave me perspective, optimism, and motivation. It quite literally changed my life.
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Chase Freedom Flex is offering 15k points + 10% up to $12k on grocery spend in year 1. It’s the best no annual fee sign up deal I’ve ever seen at Chase & strengthens any Sapphire portfolio. Disable ad blockers and try a few different incognito browsers until you find it.
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I was shopping for a rental car, but fares are consistently $400+. However, I’m not driving very far, so MPG doesn’t really matter and parking won’t be an issue. Box truck is a great value!
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Was talking to my buddy tonight… Fees matter… $100k invested at 6.5%, compounded annually, in pricey funds with a 1.25% management fee versus and indexed portfolio with all-in costs of 1/10 of 1%. The tyranny of compounding fees destroys the miracle of compound interest.
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On my flight to Vegas, the guy boarding ahead of me was trying to get his girlfriend excited for a $25 match play deal. She was definitely not excited. I jumped in & supported him enthusiastically, but then they both looked confused. I’m dying.🤣🤣🤣
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Just found my dad’s copy of Beat the Dealer, complete with the notes that he wrote with his beloved flair pens. ❤️
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My first ever AP play… my dad would have me walk the boardwalk in Ocean City, MD and check the size of the progressive jackpots on Cyclone, so we could maximize our free game probability. He died 5/15/2003, but the wisdom of that play is still with me. $4M, baby!
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A lady of the night just propositioned me at Cosmo… and then she went to check the vulnerable slots. I respect the hustle.
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I am convinced that advantage play is like investing… what separates people in the long run is how well they respond to losses in the short run.
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Maybe players who are angry about $DKNG tax on wins should only deposit and withdraw via PayPal, making those transactions as expensive as possible for DraftKings. What would that do to margins, JRob?
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Not gambling related, but my tuxedo cat, Boots, died three years ago today. When I first got an iPhone, I wanted to take my a filtered pic of our Christmas tree. Boots snuck into the frame. It’s the worst use of a filter ever and probably the best pic that I’ll ever take.
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Saw a ploppy betting 25c with $8 in credits, so I stuck around expecting him to be a member of the notorious crumpled $5 bill gang, NC5BG. Miracles do happen... that was his last $8 and he gave up, so I grabbed it. My best ever $200 find.
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When variance wears on my soul, I crank out a YTD chart. Always helps.
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I always thought that advantage play would be full of globe trotting, whiskey drinking, highfalutin antics… it can be, but usually I find myself blasting blackjack at spots like this.
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If you truly believe that you have a reliable and sustainable edge, then you have a money machine. Selling it is almost never the right move. Buyers should always beware of touts, affiliates, subscription services, etc.
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As sites devote more resources to limiting skilled players, the value of being falsely identified as a recreational player will only increase. My best offers have always come after some new countermeasure created operator overconfidence in their opinion of me as a degen moron.🤓
Really excited to announce our first investment out of GaurdDog,
@idPair
.
idPair aims to provide a centralized view of an individual’s play across operators, providing for universal RG limits.
We started GaurdDog to help advance responsibility across the entire gaming
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Oh, this is fabulous. I just love how DraftKings treated a VIP who spotted the glitch. Very much on brand!
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If anyone wants to play YouTube in the background on iPhone, while using other apps.
Open in Safari
Request desktop site via the Aa button in upper left
Close Safari, it stops.
Open control center, press play.
👌🏻
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@halfkelly
said it best, “Once you’re engaged in fuel points arbitrage, and you’re dealing with the reality of taking delivery of the gas, you know, absurd is in the rear view mirror.”
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One of the most valuable things that I’ve learned to do is simply bet it and forget it. Don’t watch the game. For most people, sweating bets usually only adds unnecessary stress, wastes time, and plants seeds for behavioral biases.
I have never seen a more accurate video representing the girlfriend of a degenerate sports bettor in my life…
This is gold 😂
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Losing an edge can unlock creativity and motivation, it’s often a gift.
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$200 in food comps left, plus the $10 daily food credit… Damn right.
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Just wrapped up my 2022 credit card data analysis. No manufacturing spending, just ruthless optimization of organic spend. ✈️✈️✈️
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Me: Loses a ton in stock market today, will sleep like a baby.
Also me: This $30 deposit match was worth $29.50 and I only made $24. Why does God hate me?!?!?
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With the popularity of Sex, Lies, and Video Poker exploding... I’ve begun work on my own erotic gambling novel. Masturbation, Fallacies, and Vulturing Ultimate X.
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Money has decreasing marginal utility. Your first dollar buys you a loaf of bread that keeps you alive. Your one millionth dollar is virtually indistinguishable from your 999,999th. People rarely adjust their risk and/or choices for this reduction in utility.
Earning more money is supposed to offer you more freedom, but it can do the opposite if you're not careful.
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Re: FanDuel banning and limiting, no one should be surprised and it’s likely a net positive for many sharp players. AP is just a strategy game. It is not a vacuum, it’s an ecosystem. Nothing lasts forever and markets will trend towards efficiency. It’s ok.
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3/3 My friend, who was also playing the game, looks at me and says “You can’t even talk. You’re probably the dumbest person in here.” 😂😂😂 Yup, I am so dumb... now dump the rack, assholes.
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Every time that I politely offer to bet huge money on scientific studies of an astronomical edge or 10 standard deviation return, this happens. I’m not a skeptic, I’m a debunker. 🤷♂️
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My mom died recently the the amount of mail that I get from “We Buy Houses” scumbags who linked my address to her death is predatory and gross. So, I’ve decided to update my rankings. Sports touts are climbing, tho!
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At LAS… who enters the line behind me? Bill Benter! We only chatted for a few seconds, but what a gracious guy! 🏇🏇🏇
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@maxjoseph
@waitbutwhy
Let’s be real. Playing an audiobook isn’t reading. I acknowledge that people learn differently and I love educational podcasts, but reading (for most people) is much more immersive and focused. “Reading audiobooks” is akin to microwaving steak.
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If you must buy a Mega Millions, buy a ticket that only uses the subset of white balls from 32-70. Since most non-quick pick players pick bdays, you can increase the probability of winning alone (not of winning, obv) by being in the minority.
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$16k would have made for a very happy thanksgiving! But $845 works!
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Highly recommend:
If you're just starting out, "the most important thing is to just find a market where you can be profitable within a couple of months. Otherwise you're just going to get super demotivated,"
@Saramek21
said.
One of the top golf bettors surveys the landscape on the podcast ⤵️
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Sitting in bank branch office with a banker.
Me: “Thanks, but I don’t need any financial advice. I just need you to wire a bunch of money to this casino.”
Banker: “As you wish.”
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When I met DK founder, JRob, I said sarcastically, “I’m a big fan of your work. Big fan, big fan.” With every earnings call, PR debacle, strategic blunder that interaction ages like fine wine. Cheers! 🍷🍷🍷
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@halfkelly
Whether you walk away or not, it’s been a brilliant run. Every episode made me think, laugh, and fueled creativity. You truly have a gift for framing and narrating these stories and I’m lucky to have heard them. Thank you.
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This fall, I’ll be quite entertained by an army of semi-sharp dads, who have forever resented overpaying for family Disney merch and trips, finally flipping out when ESPN gives them get $5 betting limits.
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If you’re taking a long road trip, the GasBuddy trip planner will optimize refueling stops based on tank size, mpg, and prices across multiple states. 👌🏻
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Years ago, DK had Thanksgiving blackjack promo. When you filled the bj table w/ food, a dancing turkey showed up to celebrate. The animation reset the denom, so I accidentally bet $1k on the next hand and lost. I still hate that damn turkey, but am thankful for the absurdity.
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With lots of extremely negative personal and professional variance this week, I decided to graph my 2020 gambling results. The results looked much smoother than how they felt at the time. I just hope that someday this week will also look better than it feels.🤞
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How thick are the tables? 😉
Every casino chip at Resorts World will have RFID (radio-frequency identification) technology. No more guesswork on the part of pit bosses about how you’re rated, they’ll know to the penny.
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So sad to hear about the passing of James Randi. Psychics are such scumbags and he did his best to highlight their evils.
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$2k for a $250k balance held at Chase for 90 days. Goldman’s Marcus only pays .50% APY, so roughly $388 lost. Chase savings pays .10% APY, so $62 +$2k = $1,674 net. 🤓
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For anyone interested in the market, just use index funds, max Roth, max 401k, etc. Take systemic risk, not idiosyncratic risk. Remember, ex-post data is a biased measure of ex-ante risk. Also, read this... Thinking, Fast and Slow
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@PlusEVAnalytics
I feel your pain. I went to gaming vs Draftkings on something that was clearly wrong. I lost and then DK immediately re-worded the portion of the promo terms that I disputed, nearly 180 degrees. Regulatory capture is real, but it’s smarter to pay me than to motivate me. 😉
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More Southwest “business class” for me. I’ve been running hot with low A’s lately!
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Exactly this. For the vast majority of people, boring is brilliant. My cousin’s teenager has a Roth IRA and I always tell her “VTI, VXUS, and chill.”
Invest in the broad market, you 10x your money in 25 years, 100x your money in 50 years.
$100k >> $10,000,000
It's not like any casino I've been to.
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1k followers, thanks! So here’s a dead credit card play that I loved. Giant Eagle used to sell $200 visas with a $5.95 fee. However, they gave 10 cents off per gallon for every $50 spent, 30 gallon max. So, if you spent $205.95, you earned ~41c off per gallon. 🧵
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My 2021 Chase numbers are in… when points are used for my usual mix travel with companion pass and international biz class, plus points earned from portals, plus free gas… 12.34% back on every dollar spent.
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And, hey, if the person who found it is an asshole. Well, that’s ok, too. Finding a wallet won’t solve their problems. When the money is gone, they’ll still be miserable and alone. Justice is served in either case.
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I deposited a large check from an online book recently. The young teller thought that it was so cool. He said “Wow, you must have crushed a huge parlay.” I said “Typically, you shouldn’t bet parlays, the house edge compounds against you.” INSTANTLY removed all coolness. 😂
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One credit card sign up last fall and I earned Companion Pass until 12/31/25, 135k SW points, and $1,875 in gas ($62.50 off per gallon with 30/gallon max per redemption). I added EV by giving away a quite a few tanks to strangers on Xmas eve. Not too shabby!
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5% back at gas stations on Chase Freedom for Q3. If your grocery store owns gas stations, buy grocery gift cards there to jam the spend into proper coding for 5%. ✈️
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I lost my wallet yesterday. As far as average cash in wallets is concerned, it’s probably a once in a lifetime find for someone. Hopefully, the person who choose not to return was just in a tough spot and my cash made life a little easier for them.
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@mrmonchidog
@Travelingamble
@EagleEye1906
I turn my heat way down and night... then fill up Nalgene bottles with hot water and put them under the covers. The bottles stay warm for 12+ hours.
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I sold a house last month, but given the lack of supply and glut of idle realtors, I negotiated the commission down to 2%. I am happy that the fee structure will change, but everything is negotiable.
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While I wait for my dealer, I’m just strolling around constantly changing denoms, so that the other hustler has to cycle the screens over and over. I do love my petty torments. Get to work, pal!
#descendingorder
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If my love of incremental value ever dies… it’ll be due to inhalation of gas fumes.
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SiriusXM $3.99/month for 24 months. It seems like you can cancel and resubscribe.
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Contrary to popular opinion, an early B boarding # on Southwest is preferable to an A boarding # because you board after babies and children. Hence, you still have lots of seat options, but also greater ability to avoid problematic neighbors.
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My last domino of competition free slot hustling has finally fallen. Excess income for unskilled labor on lasts so long, markets evolve. It’s probably time for me to surrender this part of the food chain. ✌🏼
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I booked a 7Stars Retreat with my host, then they nuked my 7Stars status. The problem is, I paid $1200 for the flight to get reimbursed & arb versus the freeplay. So far, they’re unsympathetic. I’m not at
@PlusEVAnalytics
level of rage, but I’m getting there.
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You may be wondering… “How does an asset fall by 95%?” Well, first it falls by 90%, then it falls by 50%.
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I still love a good, old fashioned snake oil salesman fight... 😂
Every time that I politely offer to bet huge money on scientific studies of an astronomical edge or 10 standard deviation return, this happens. I’m not a skeptic, I’m a debunker. 🤷♂️
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So yeah, it’s a minor arb, but it existed for YEARS it quite easily saved me thousands of dollars in gas and travel. That’s my philosophy… don’t work one job for 2000 hours/year that pays fairly well… work 1000 jobs for 2 hours/year that pay much better.
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@RufusPeabody
I once experimented with seeing if an online “cool off” could reinstate my sports betting limits with a major U.S operator. A week later, I started getting free play offers for their brick and mortar location, which I had never visited! So predatory!
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Walked up to this, but the bill acceptor was broken, so I grabbed a slot tech.
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