Michael Jordaan
@MichaelJordaan
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Backing entrepreneurial teams in new ventures like challenger @BankZeroSA and leading 5G telco @rainSouthAfrica. Wine amateur and lazy MTBer
Stellenbosch, South Africa
Joined July 2009
Surely it’s time that SA hosts another Rugby World Cup. We’ve won the cup 4 times but only hosted once. We have great stadiums, great airports, friendly (rugby mad) people, a great climate and awesome scenery.
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Hypothesis: The Rand will tell us who the coalition partners are. Long before it is publicly announced.
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South Africans are some of the most authentically friendly people in the world. Don’t believe me? Just be genuinely friendly yourself and observe their reaction.
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Breaking: SANLAM buying 25% of Tyme Bank for > R2 billion is a really big deal. 1 It validates the challenger banking model. 2 It shows that bancassurance is alive and well. And 3 it provides ARC with firepower to keep investing in startups.
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The Springboks are the only team in the Rugby World Cup that have not conceded a try.
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R23 billion of electricity stolen in one year! In any normal business this would have been noticed and fixed fast. Problem with State-owned enterprises is that taxpayers and not shareholders foot the bill.
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Private installed solar (of 5,2GW) is now larger than any coal power station in SA (Medupi/Kusile at 4,8GW).
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Some 13% of all the land in South Africa is held by tribal authorities. About 17 million people or a third of the population reside on these communal lands. Allocating title deeds would turn impoverished rural dwellers into property owners.
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Solar installations (not contracted to Eskom) doubled in 2023 to 5,2 GW. Private installed solar is now larger than any coal power station in SA. More importantly, solar is already cheaper than Eskom and getting cheaper still.
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Putting my predictions out there. In the decade starting 2025: 1) the SA economy will grow >2,5% p.a. on average and 2) emerging markets will significantly outperform developed markets 3) VC/PE as an asset class will outperform listed equities.
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The Argentinean economic experiment seems to be working. This may become the new model to supercharge economic growth.
In 2023, Argentina was dying:. • Central Bank $12B in debt.• 50% poverty rate.• 7,500% inflation. Then Javier Milei became President. 11 months in, he's pulling off the greatest economic turnaround ever. In a 2-hour pod with Lex Fridman, he revealed exactly how he did it🧵
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Hat tip to @tymebankza for reaching profitability. Proves that a challenger bank can make it in South Africa.
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Market hasn’t yet grasped how profound this Chinese development is. Nvidia surely is overvalued. And the energy stocks that power AI data centres. Only way out for companies like ChatGPT, Grok and Meta is to make their solutions 20X better without any more capital expenditure.
Deepseek R1 is one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I’ve ever seen — and as open source, a profound gift to the world. 🤖🫡.
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More Milei. Less Marx.
Argentina will be one of the fastest-growing economies in 2025, offsetting the entire slump inherited from Peronism. According to Bloomberg Economics. @JMilei
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Making it a habit of winning world competitions by 1 point.
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Zim’s latest currency: “Zig” won’t last long. Soon they will print more Zig than the gold meant to back it. Zim should simply embrace the Rand (their largest trading partner) or Bitcoin (which has more trust than Zim’s monetary authorities).
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Amazing if this happens. Would be a role model for so many other countries that held back by their own institutions.
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Today I managed to fix two problematic appliances (a Smart TV and a WiFi router) by unplugging them for a few minutes and then switching them on again. Starting to think we can solve many other, bigger problems the same way.
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It cost more than $100m to train Chat GPT-4 but only $5,5m to train the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek which matches or exceeds Chat GPT-4. Hardware and algorithm optimisation opportunities in AI remain immense.
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Underestimate challenger banks all you want. But in 2024 @BankZeroSA grew deposits by 58%. Startups create the future.
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I can’t help myself but I always say “please” when I ask Chat GPT a question. It really feels like I am asking a person to do something for me.
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Almost 40% of wine farmers make losses. Obviously this is not sustainable. The total area under vineyards will keep reducing unless exports come to the rescue.
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We farm badly and eat badly and then expect pharmaceuticals to make us healthy.
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I observe that big companies regularly spend billions on technology solutions that cost startups mere millions to recreate.
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Chinese electric cars are much, much cheaper than European petrol cars. This is going to devastate most big car manufacturers.
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Maybe removal is also a business opportunity: water hyacinth can be used for fodder, as a fertiliser and even as a fibre source for making paper.
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Trump (77) and Biden (81) - the rematch nobody wants.
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Winelovers, there’s an exceptional series on AppleTV called Drops of God. It’s centred on France and Japan but this line made me happy.
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Taxing 4G and 5G smartphones makes it more difficult for consumers to participate in the digital world. Smartphones are a necessity, not a luxury.
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Please make it available in South Africa Elon.
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X is a place where opinions are seldomly inhibited by ignorance.
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Buying electricity from Independent Power Producers is about 63% cheaper than what it costs Eskom to generate a kWh of electricity.
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Achieving several moonshots is incredibly hard. Surely @elonmusk should be spending all his time on his many businesses and not on politics?.
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5 million South Africans live in informal settlements. As the Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto argues, giving title to residents of informal settlements promotes investment, access to credit and socio-economic integration.
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Starting to think it will be 0,5% 🤞🏽.
Predicting that Prime will reduce by 0,25% to 11,25% on 21 November.
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My favourite new theory.
How to identify the opportunities around you (The Red Car Theory):
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Just received great stats from @BankZeroSA:.1) December '23 Card turnover is up a massive 70% on prior December.2) Card Fraud is still at Zero (due to the patented security features that prevent card skimming). Can any other bank can claim the same for any one of these metrics?.
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Great use of renewable energy. Just ironic that Bitcoin and Tulips come together like this.
Farm in the 🇳🇱 Netherlands uses #Bitcoin mining to keep stable temperatures inside the greenhouse 👀.
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No April Fool's joke: Since 1 April SA's Deposit Insurance scheme protects R100 000 per depositor per bank in the event of a bank collapse. This bolsters confidence in the financial system, especially in smaller banks.
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Bitcoin supply growth is now 0,9% per year. Euro inflation rate is 2,4%. US inflation is 3,5%. SA inflation is 5,3%. Zimbabwe 222%.
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So important to build a savings and investment culture in SA. We have too many micro loans and too few micro investors.
EasyEquities is the most popular online share trading platform among South African retail investors, maintaining its lead from last year.
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First there was loadshedding. Now there’s watershifting. What’s next?.
Gauteng gets green light to implement ‘water shifting’: Gauteng residents should brace themselves for water shifting, which will be implemented by Rand Water as an interim measure to deal with shortages in the province.
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Next month the price of Eskom electricity will go up 12,7%. The good news is that the price of solar and batteries keeps on falling.
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Really enjoying the insights gleaned from the Elon Musk book by Walter Isaacson. One random bit of info is that Elon got 61% for Afrikaans in his Matric.
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Predicting that Prime will reduce by 0,25% to 11,25% on 21 November.
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Knowing when to step down is a superpower. Especially if you’re in charge of a superpower.
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the Future of his Presidential-Reelection Campaign with his Family and other Staffers on Sunday at Camp David, following Thursday Night’s Debate with Former President Donald Trump, which left several Members of the Democratic
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Never try to catch a falling piano. Is SASOL a falling piano? Or deep value?.
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Thanks @moneyweb for showing the increases by the Big Banks. Well done to the challenger banks who still charge Zero monthly and Zero payment fees.
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China is building better and cheaper (electric) cars.
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The second one really works. It’s also a way to save time and prevent meetings. Ask someone to write rather than talk.
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Interesting that Microsoft has started using WhatsApp (and not SMS) for verification. Two thoughts: .1 this makes it much easier when travelling abroad as one can use WiFi instead of roaming and.2 if other companies follow (and they will) then Telcos will lose a lot of SMS income
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Proteas sending message to Boks to not get overconfident after a victory.
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Insight from a discussion with a mate about (Western) civilisation: we are very aware of all our rights but hardly aware of any of our obligations.
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BRICS should just adopt it.
Bitcoin is already the global reserve asset. Anyone can buy or sell virtually any amount of BTC at any time in any country on any device for a known price without any necessary intermediary. Nothing else is like this.
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Really appreciate the suggestion about being FinMin but 1) Min Godongwana is doing a great job and 2) I’m useless at politics, preferring rational teamsports.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s new cabinet does not have a skilled and experienced industry expert in sight. It is packed with politicians looking after their own interests.
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Afrikaans nogal.
These cape lappet caterpillars respond to human voice and noise. [📹 Overberg Renosterveld Conservation Trust].
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Can someone please build one for boerewors in 2024.
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Techcentral produced an interesting overview of how much SA banks spend on IT. My two observations are that 1. These amounts are often understated because software expenses are capitalised and 2. Huge expenses often don’t bring huge benefits.
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SA can make a significant dent in unemployment if it frees the informal sector from overbearing regulations
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Following my remarks about IT spend at large banks, someone kindly sent me this slide. Conservative banks expense software upfront. Other banks convince auditors to capitalise software.
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3026 years from today, life will either be really good or really bad. It's 5050.
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When it comes to investments you want the market to agree with you but only in the future. Disagreement creates the opportunity.
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Alternative headline: Country with the most debt ($35 trillion) cuts its own cost of debt.
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
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Disaster that 3 top universities like Wits, UCT and Stellenbosch are only permitted to enrol a combined 16 500 first years.
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Useful in Joburg 😇.
5. BYD's supercar, Yangwang U9, jumping 6 meters forward (over potholes)
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An amazing statistic. Win slightly over half of the points and you can be the best in the world. Applies to many other aspects of life including investing.
Roger Federer won 80 percent of the matches he played during his career but only 54 percent of the points. A reminder of the fine margins where greatness can be found.
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What could possibly go right? More fun to think that way anyway.
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Sadly this happened. Much faster than I had thought it would.
Zim’s latest currency: “Zig” won’t last long. Soon they will print more Zig than the gold meant to back it. Zim should simply embrace the Rand (their largest trading partner) or Bitcoin (which has more trust than Zim’s monetary authorities).
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Almost half of South African adults withdraw all their money from their bank accounts as soon as it is deposited. One reason is the fees that are associated with card transactions. Fortunately @BankZeroSA card swipes are free
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Prediction: many more traditional car manufacturers will merge. They are struggling to compete against Chinese electric vehicles.
BREAKING: Japanese car giants, Honda and Nissan, announce plans to merge 🚗🤝🚗.
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How many banks can explain all their fees on just 1 page? And most of the fees are zero!.
@StudyBuddyOnli1 @MichaelJordaan And here’s our pricing guide. Simple one-pager. Same rates apply to ALL - no matter what income. And, the best part, the fees for businesses are exactly the same as for businesses 😁.
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As predicted: markets now responding to DeepSeek.
The decline is accelerating:. Nasdaq 100 futures are now down -330 POINTS since the market opened just hours ago as DeepSeek takes #1 on the App Store. This is how you know DeepSeek has become a major threat to US large cap tech. The stock market does not lie. (a thread)
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Great to chew on while daydreaming at school.
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Using 18 metrics like education, trade, economic output, and military strength, @RayDalio graphs great powers and empires over time. Nothing lasts forever.
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Now even small businesses can have their own AI setup. This is revolutionary.
Complete hardware + software setup for running Deepseek-R1 locally. The actual model, no distillations, and Q8 quantization for full quality. Total cost, $6,000. All download and part links below:.
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We can solve a lot of dysfunctional systems by simply decentralising accountability.
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Everything we do as a species is built on imagination.
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Big deal that a big insurer outsources active asset management. Predict SA will see a big move to lower cost, passive asset management.
Breaking News: Sanlam selects Ninety One as primary active investment manager for ~ZAR400bn in assets, including Sanlam Investment Management & Sanlam Investments UK. The 15-year partnership bolsters Sanlam's offerings & grants Ninety One access to its vast distribution network.
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Sad but probably inevitable. Social media is the new media. Need to find new ways to filter out fake news.
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Powerful message.
No need to buy more of the same thing if you've already got enough!
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Most useful thing when “experts” talk about AI is a well-calibrated bullshit detector.
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A serious challenge to Google which currently has 90% of the search market. This is how competition works. Dominant one day, vulnerable the next.
🌐 Introducing ChatGPT search 🌐. ChatGPT can now search the web in a much better way than before so you get fast, timely answers with links to relevant web sources.
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Tomorrow @BankZeroSA will release its 4th pricing guide. In the wake of the recent tough Mid-Term Budget, and an ongoing cost-of-living crisis in the country, will they still be able to offer zero fees?.
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