Laurent Segalen
@MegaWattXinfo
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Franco-british 🇫🇷🇬🇧Investor in Clean Energy. Co-host of the 🎙️Redefining Energy podcast. "Renewable Energy Leader of the Year" 2024
London
Joined November 2013
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Bill Gates is sucking a lot of oxygen in the Energy Transition. Is he a force for good, or a nuisance? What is his thesis and where does it come from? And is the thesis still valid in 2024 or obsolete?
@gerardreid14
,
@mbarnardca
and I are tackling Bill Gates' fascination for
🎙️Ep143. Bill Gates and Energy (1/2) - the Thesis
#applepodcast
#Spotify
@mbarnardca
,
@gerardreid14
and
@MegaWattXinfo
confront on Bill Gates' thesis on Energy. The importance of Smil, MacKay. And the consequences.
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Truck Engine: Diesel vs. Electric. Guess which technology will prevail!
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Sometimes, you find little jewels on Social Media
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The greatest energy arbitrage of all times: US Gulf coast ➡️ NW Europe. 200mUSD gain or more per trip… which is basically the price of the ship. Insane!
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😳🤩🤯China is building battery plants far beyond levels needed to meet domestic demand for electric cars and grid energy storage, underlining vast state subsidies and unchecked bank lending.
Production capacity at China’s battery factories is expected to reach 1,500 gigawatt
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Gigafactories under construction in Europe. Crazy! A good analysis here
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Crazy overcapacity of Solar panel manufacturing: 2TW next year.
That's the equivalent of 5 Nuclear plants capacity per day! Per day!
Now, at this point, I know that the nuclear cheerleaders are gonna start whinging.
Guys! Wake up. You're selling a Nike shoe for the price of
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If
@northvolt
pulls this one out. It is a world game changer. 1,000,000 times more important than COP28.
“Northvolt develops state-of-the-art sodium-ion battery validated at 160 Wh/kg”
I love tech!
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IT IS HAPPENING! The solar PV industry will produce 310GW of modules in 2022, representing an incredible 45% yoy increase compared to 2021! More on this in
@Redef_Energy
Ep88 Dec 15
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ICE engine vs Electric engine (same peak torque). Can you guess which technology will prevail?
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Solar (red dots) + Wind (blue dots) = the new baseload (black dots)
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Enviva, the world’s largest biomass energy company, is near collapse.
•The forest biomass energy industry took a major hit this month, as Enviva, the world’s largest producer of wood pellets — burned in former coal power plants to make energy on an industrial scale — saw
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4 years ago!
Shell decided to exit its home retail energy businesses in Britain, Germany and the Netherlands due to their poor returns and "tough market conditions"
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Welcome to the future.
Level 2: 22kw will charge your car in c.2-3 hours and cost you c.15EUR/USD
Level3: 150kw and above will charge your car in c.20mns and cost you c.25EUR/USD
(For comparison, a gasoline tank is in the 50-80EUR/USD zone and H2 - if you are lucky enough to
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“EDF now says Hinkley C, UK’s first new nuclear power station for 30 years, will cost £32.7bn, against the £18bn envisaged in 2016. EDF’s Flamanville-3 reactor in France is over a decade behind schedule. In the US, the $14bn original cost of Vogtle 3 and 4 has blown past $30bn.”
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@cloverhogan
You have no idea what you’re talking about. No cobalt in LFP batteries… but still in oil refineries which doesn’t seems to bother you much. 🤡
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OPEC+ has no idea what’s coming for them when it comes to future oil demand
37% of all new passenger vehicle sales in China last month were fully electric or plug-in hybrid.
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Germany Energiewende: first 273 days of 2022: average of 51.3% renewables electricity generation
230 days > 40%
43 days < 40%
0 days < 20%
Best day 76% / Worse day 22.5%
Thank you Stefan. Where is the Dunkelflaute that keeps fossil dinosaurs very agitated?
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A battery in is a barrel out.
At their own peril, the fossil fuel dinosaurs are ignoring the comet batteries that's gonna send them to irrelevance ... and worse... poverty, while all consumers will gain.
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The Atlantic gas arbitrage. Mother of all trade. HH+Liq+ Ship=9USD/mmbtu ➡️ TTF = 42USD/mmbtu. That’s a profit of 100mUSD per trip. The LNG ship is paid for in 4 trip. No need for politicians’ intervention. Let the music play.
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Moray West, one of Scotland’s most powerful offshore wind farms (880MW) has connected to the grid for the first time.
A third of its 60 turbines (rated 14.7MW each, manufactured by Siemens Gamesa) have been installed, and all the platforms on which the turbines sit.
The total
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The battery industry is exceptional. Alongside renewables, it is going to devour a significant chunk of the fossil fuel cake. Of course, fossil fuels won't disappear, but they will be kicked out a lot of juicy segments (power, low grade heat, light transportation).
Repeat after
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Below 100USD/kWh!!!!
The fall of battery prices has restarted.
Price of EVs ⬇️
F*ck OPEC+ 🤘🏻
📉Benchmark's Global Weighted Average Lithium Ion Battery Cell Price falls 8.7% in August to dip below $100/kWh, representing the first time the Global Weighted Average Cell Price has fallen below this threshold since August 2021.
This decline can be attributed to the downward
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The eye-popping UK nuclear liability!
The "Nuclear Provision", ie the future cost estimated to clean up all of UK
#nuclear
plants stands now at a staggering 237bnGBP... or 10% of the country's GDP.
Prices exploded due to higher interest rates.
In order to get that number, you
Jaw-dropping: UK is spending $3bn/year, for 100+ years, to decommission nuclear plants - with no waste storage plan
Every $ for nuclear vastly delays decarbonization compared to that same $ invested in renewables (and I'm being polite)
h/t
@Edinburgreen
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Price of Materials for a Tesla battery x5 in 1 year. From 1,400USD to 7,400USD
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Hilarious cartoon from Tom Baxter (sorry I can’t find Tom’s handle) . In line with
@h2coalition
and
@MLiebreich
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Chinese solar manufacturers have privileged capacity over margin. They went “over their skis” when it comes to adding new capacity, allowing consumers across the world to benefit from ultra-low prices. Shareholders suffered. Building plants in Europe or the US makes no sense
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Global battery capacity is expected to grow exponentially the coming years, with China retaining a 70% market share.
9m GWh would power more than 100m cars (current global auto market at 80m) + lots of trucks + ginormous amount of stationary storage.
OPEC cries, Earth smiles.
Visualizing China’s Dominance in Battery Manufacturing (2022-2027P) 🔋
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Hydrogen: the road to nowhere
“Despite sky high ambitions and unprecedented political support, Europe’s hydrogen industry is struggling.
The EU’s goal to produce and import 20 million tonnes of clean hydrogen by 2030 is now widely seen as completely unrealistic.
For hydrogen
It's time for a
#hydrogen
reality check.
T&E's
@WilliamTodts
breaks down the widening chasm between hype and reality when it comes to H2 in Europe in a new op-ed 👇
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Hydrogen: the Obituary.
We (the electron guys) feel somehow vindicated. Eternal thanks to
@h2coalition
and
@MLiebreich
for spearheading the effort to bring arithmetics into the debate
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I love this:
“California solar+storage project with world’s largest BESS fully online.
The Edwards & Sanborn solar+storage project in California is now fully online, with 875MW of solar and 3,200MWh of energy storage system (BESS).”
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PV solar modules below
0.20USD/w in China.
Cheapest ever.
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Who will power the datacenters thirst for energy? Gas or Renewables?
AI revolution will be boon for natural gas, say fossil fuel bosses
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According to
@BloombergNEF
, Electrolysis system costs are higher than previously thought. On average, the total estimated cost of building an alkaline
#electrolysis
system has risen 46-65% over the past two years. Reasons for this jump include a wider scope of cost coverage in
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The gas Roller Coaster in Europe and why Germany’s Uniper lost twice
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World’s biggest solar company warns west not to cut out Chinese suppliers
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I cannot recommend enough to read this great obituary of the
#hydrogen
economy.
“As of today, there are only 700MW of operating electrolyzers, producing around 110,000 tons of green hydrogen annually. There are still no operating blue hydrogen plants.
Expectations have raced far
My latest for
@BloombergNEF
: Hydrogen's Missing Trillions.
#COP28
was the hydrogen COP, the first to mention it in the text. But despite hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies, it would take trillions more to hit 2030 targets agreed by ministers.
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Shell has quietly closed down all its
#hydrogen
filling stations in the UK.
Facilities shut down because 'prototype tech had reached its end of life', oil giant tells Hydrogen Insight (after 5 years!)
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In March 2024, for the first time, Solar beats Coal in Texas.
And it’s just the beginning! (Wind is way above, challenging Gas)
Ergo…
#energytransition
works.
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If you wonder why French power prices are at record high, don’t look further than the poor state of the Nuclear park. Almost 50% of plants are down for a reason or another.
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Happy new year to our Dunkelflaute friends, our pro-nuclear advocates, our pro-Russia puppets and our fossil fuel lobbyists. 2022 in the German Energiewende average cleanpower of 49.6%
289 days > 40%
26 days < 30%
2 days < 20%
Max daily 76.9%
Min daily 19.3%
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France’s TotalEnergies has invested £20 million ($25.3 million) to acquire a minority stake in British start-up Xlinks, which plans to build the world's longest high-voltage direct current subsea power cable between Morocco and the UK.
In April, Abu Dhabi National Energy Company,
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The economics of the
#Teslasemi
show that it is 83% cheaper to drive and haul goods than a standard
#diesel
truck. Not to mention the reduction in cost due to less maintenance. The Tesla semi will truly disrupt the trucking industry.
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The French are currently closing nukes faster than the Germans
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Regarding NuScale, here is what the legendary Amiral Hyman Rickover wrote 70 years ago:
“An academic reactor or reactor plant almost always has the following basic characteristics: (1) It is simple. (2) It is small. (3) It is cheap (4) It is light. (5) It can be built very
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Heat pumps 6x more energy efficients than Hydrogen (whereas H2 PR budget 60x bigger than Heat Pumps’)
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Japan's nuclear regulator announced that it has lifted its safety ban on TEPCO 8.2GW Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, the largest in the world in terms of capacity.
The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant has been offline since 2012, after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 led to the shutdown
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In 2021, Wind and Solar production in Europe reached 547TWh. Back of the envelope calculation, that's 20bnEUR not sent to Vlad. Energiewende, that's what we are talking about.
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@ewanmakepeace
McKinsey wrote 11 years a very thorough report on the future of the automotive industry where the word ELECTRIC was only written once in 33 pages.
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The California’s famous Duck Curve is now a canyon. Source and explanation here:
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Thank you
@AukeHoekstra
for raising the flag. This is insane!
This blew me away: over a million new gas wells per year because of the fracking craze in the US??
Already over three million leaky eyesores left behind!
High time that we get a clear picture of all leaks (worldwide) and hold producers responsible.
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Historic tsunami of cheap Chinese solar panels… that the market can’t even absorb! 🤯😳🤩
Global glut turns solar panels into common or garden fencing option
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I admire
@MLiebreich
His texts and explanations are sharp, witty, clinical: world class. Best Energy communicator on the planet.
Batteries are often described as resource-intensive. With a 95% proven recycling rate and a 10yr life, over 50% of battery minerals mined today will still be in use in *130 years*. Add 5% performance improvement per cycle, and they will be delivering services *forever*. Boom! 1/2
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Hydrogen buses: he we go again!
PR said: “The tanks can be filled in five minutes, and a single tank can take the bus up to 300 miles”.
Small print: “Well, unless your hydrogen supply to the dispensers runs out…”
In Liverpool, 20 brand new
#hydrogen
buses (by the way running
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Introducing one of the most ambitious clean energy infrastructure project in history: The North Atlantic Transmission One link.
A set of HVDC subsea cables (6GW) connecting North East America and North West Europe.
Some will say it's crazy, other are convinced that it delivers
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Global car giant
@Stellantis
has teamed up with
@aramco
to promote eFuels
The Stellantis CEO is religiously opposed to EVs. No point trying to convince him.
Expect A LOT of propaganda for eFuels in the coming months. At least you’ll know the source.
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Here we go again: Cracks of a few centimetres have been identified in all four of the feedwater pumps of the Olkiluoto 3 EPR in Finland. Operator TVO says it does not yet know the impact this will have on the schedule for the plant's commissioning.
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Hinkley Point C debacle. 3 lessons.
Lesson 1: HPC will not even replace the nukes being decommissioned in the coming years
Lesson 2: we all thought it would be the British ratepayers OR the French taxpayers. In fact it will be both.
Lesson 3: Those great minds only process
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Here we go again
“EDF now estimates the cost of its programme to build six new nuclear reactors in France at EUR67.4 bn.
In 2021, an initial estimate valued this programme at EUR51.7 billion.”
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Balancing California’s Grid is a very sophisticated exercise. Today, it relies on interconnections and gas. We can expect that batteries will progressively eat into gas market share. Anyway, not simple…
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INSANE: Chinese automakers are expected to launch 110 EVs and plug-in hybrids in 2024. Those new offerings will join the almost 400 "new energy" models already in China's showrooms. By contrast, there were just over 50 EV models on sale in the USA last year.
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Geothermal: 1,000,000 times better than nuke, hydrogen, ccs, DAC….
The heat is there, 2-3km down, we just have to drill, baby, drill
Everywhere, 24/7, small footprint.
Germany's Chancellor Scholz speaking at the public launch of Eavor's historic first commercial project in Geretsried.
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#Energiewende
is delivering (don’t listen to washed-out oil lobbyists and nuclear prophets) Germany power generation:
#renewables
avg of 56% in 2022 (first 243 days):
229 days above 40%
14 days below 40%
Daily max 80%
Daily min 28%
Thank you Stefan
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I definitely believe that the Energy Transition is on!
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Lithium Ferro-phosphate batteries are the new darling of the auto industry, thanks to some qualities like affordability and increased stability. CATL found that adding manganese to the formula increases the energy density by up to 20%.
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Oh Mon Dieu!
Niger bans Uranium exports to France. So much about security of supply…
Thankfully, a large part of Uranium burned in French Nukes comes from Kazakhstan… via Russia (Oh mon Dieu)^2
The military regime in Niger has with immediate effect, banned the export of uranium to France. Over 50 per cent of the uranium ore extracted from Niger is used for fuelling French nuclear power plants. 24% of EU uranium imports, come from Niger,
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Boeing: “Yep we can decarbonise aviation … but be ready for higher fares” (jet fuel = 25% of a plane ticket)
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“What happens when the wind doesn’t blow?” [put the name of any oil lobbyist]
Well today, it blows… and it’s probably going to blow up the record of generation. F*ck Putin
Look at that beauty!
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Excellent article on pumped hydro storage
“At Tâmega, where Iberdrola has a licence from the Portuguese government to operate for 70 years, it also receives a steady stream of “capacity market” payments, which are paid by the grid operator in return for a guaranteed supply and
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I'll make it short for you.
"The wind industry experienced its most successful year on record in 2023, with installations increasing by 50% year on year (YoY), with 117 GW of wind power capacity (of which 10% offshore) connected to the electricity grids.
Thanks to the 117 GW of
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Here we go again: Hinkley Point C costs set to soar by another £3bn, warns EDF
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This is the end, beautiful friend. Hydrogen truck maker Nikola receives delisting notice from Nasdaq as share price nosedives below $1. The US company indicated in a February regulatory filing that it could shut down within a year
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When it comes to battery manufacturing, there is China, China, China and a bit the rest of the world. Complacency has a cost when it comes to new tech deployment.
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Crazy Power prices in Europe: check who’s the culprit, Gas or Carbon? Answer: Gas (and unavailability of Nuke)
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@JavierBlas
@IEA
That's the difference between drilling your own gas and having to import it.
🇪🇺 10USD/mmbtu ➡️ 60USD/MWh spark spread + carbon = 70USD/MWh
🇺🇸 2.5USD/mmbtu ➡️ 14USD/mmbtu spark spread and no carbon.
Conclusion: EU will never compete with the US... unless Napoleon comes back,
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The next tsunami in
#battery
technology. According to the most trusted source in the sector,
@benchmarkmin
, Solid-state production forecast to hit 2 GWh this year. Hello Trucks, hello planes… bye bye
#hydrogen
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“One independent study showed that 175 of the 180
#nuclear
power projects examined had final costs that exceeded the initial budget by an average of 117% (and took, on average, 64% longer than projected)”. Thank you
@dorfman_p
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Here we go again!
Shell hydrogen filling station in the Netherlands evacuated after H2 leak discovered
Emergency services alerted when hissing sound was heard at bus depot site in Groningen
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OMG! 📉Polysilicon and solar module prices have fallen from $43/kg and $0.28/W in Nov 2022, to $25/kg and $0.26/W first week of Jan 2023. Some module sales have reportedly been all the way down to $0.22/W.
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Another BS article anti-EV sponsored by the Oil industry.
I quote
@SPGCI
"One of the key commodities to realizing this ambition is nickel. Unlike other battery materials such as cobalt and lithium, nickel is unique in not being primarily driven by global battery demand. About
Electric cars’ green revolution is being fueled by dangerous nickel mines.
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Thorough analysis of EDF's nuclear basket case and how to get out of it.
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Another
#hydrogen
train project cancelled. This time in Austria.
Fortunately, they caught the foolishness of this hydrogen project in time. It turned out that the CTO of the railway when the hydrogen plans were confirmed was fired for plagiarising his PhD research: an Austrian
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Who owns the German Energiewende? Utilities less than 20%, and 80% are individuals, farmers, funds, developers... super democratic!
#EnergyTransition
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The fossil fuel industry has literally no idea what's coming for them. No idea. With
@gerardreid14
, we have recorded an EXPLOSIVE episode of
@Redef_Energy
podcast due December 15. The "Solar Juggernaut". Everything will change, and fast. Very fast.
I
#Solar
is the fastest growing
#energy
source in history…Our future
#energy
system will be built around
#solar
given its low cost, ease to install and flexibility, not to mention constant innovations and technology improvements.
#renewables
#electricity
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Contrary to what media and oil trolls try to make us believe, EV sales continue to go UP
“EV sales in Q1 2024 were 21% higher than Q1 2023. “
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Curtesy of CIG Energy. Map of European
#gigafactories
. My god, so crowded, we’ll soon need a microscope 🔬
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We want to remain positive about the Wind industry. They’ll sort their short term issues out.
China drives Asian lead in global offshore wind as Europe loses top spot
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Shell is reportedly planning to sell German solar storage system manufacturer Sonnen. The sale price of the Bavarian company is estimated to be between 1.35 and 1.8 bn euros, which is three to four times its projected sales of 450 million euros in 2023.
Shell acquired Sonnen four
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Lithium miners are cutting costs and scaling back plans to expand production after slowing demand in China for EVs crushed the price of the battery metal.
The price of lithium has tumbled more than 80% in the past year to $13,200 per tonne, its lowest level since 2020, after
Lithium price plunges on slowing Chinese demand for electric vehicles
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