Kalani o Māui
@MauiBoyMacro
Followers
1,768
Following
57
Media
1,051
Statuses
4,773
Kamaʻāina | Entrepreneur | Investor | Wall St Alum | Former Financial Services Executive (24 years)
Moku ʻO Kula
Joined May 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Hobi
• 178244 Tweets
Tuchel
• 176874 Tweets
#FGO
• 124756 Tweets
FY RECAP BLANK SS2EP4
• 88609 Tweets
#BlankReactSS2Ep4
• 85612 Tweets
カズラドロップ
• 56741 Tweets
#baystars
• 40405 Tweets
バーニス
• 39870 Tweets
ZETA
• 24168 Tweets
ジェロニモ
• 22723 Tweets
ソフトバンク
• 21630 Tweets
BINI PENSHOPPE ICON
• 21230 Tweets
EP6 REACT JACK JOKER
• 21223 Tweets
ホークス
• 18594 Tweets
#相棒23
• 16344 Tweets
カノウさん
• 15230 Tweets
ジャイアンツ
• 15213 Tweets
ベイスターズ
• 13368 Tweets
AVの方
• 12215 Tweets
日本シリーズ
• 11761 Tweets
色違いメロエッタ
• 10283 Tweets
jikook
• 10007 Tweets
With stocks currently at extreme valuations and still close to ATHs, let’s take a walk down memory lane and debunk a few myths along the way.
In particular, let’s focus on the GFC from 2007 to 2009 (see chart below). Even though it was incredibly painful, you can see that from a
18
107
357
@VanDiemen_
This is a pretty superficial thread, with some accurate observations, but inaccuracies too. It lacks both historical and geopolitical perspectives, and is consistently through the lens of an outsider with no attempt to understand root cause.
Thanks for the whitesplaining. 🤙🏼
24
4
348
@CreepyOrg
Her story is not one of survival and determination, it’s one of irresponsibility and stupidity. She went on a stroll through the rainforest to get high on drugs while surrounded by nature. That’s the real story.
She put first responders and locals at risk as they searched for
22
12
307
The S&P 500 is near an ATH while the S&P 500 Earnings Yield has collapsed and is at 2008 levels and still moving lower. 👇🏼
But please, tell me how all this is bullish.
32
56
274
@KobeissiLetter
“What is happening?”
This 👇🏼
“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.”
Chuck Prince - Former CEO of Citigroup
10
14
245
@KobeissiLetter
“Powell said he does not have a definitive answer as to why people are not happy with the economy."
“When it gets serious you have to lie.”
- Jean Claude Junker
3
8
222
@iLoveJaneAdams
If you indeed aspire to lead constituents in Congress, you need to study macro and markets to understand the risks much better than you’re demonstrating with this post. Also, shilling crypto at this stage of the grift is just embarrassing. And yes, Bitcoin is a ponzi too.
31
1
163
Aloha Twitter/X Community
#Maui
needs your help. In the following 🧵 I’ll be posting information for legitimate non-profits who are on the ground and helping our local community.
Please contribute if you can, or help by reposting this thread.
Thank you. 🤙🏼
#MauiFires
5
152
156
@ShaiDavidai
@SUNY_Purchase
Jewish students should start suing universities for civil rights violations. Bureaucracies only listen when you sue.
4
8
156
@coloradotravis
I grew up deep sea fishing every weekend with my dad and my uncles. I remember telling my dad my junior year of high school that I didn’t want to go to college, that I wanted to be a fisherman.
Somehow, my dad arranged for an impossible to get spot on a commercial tuna boat for
2
6
146
@KobeissiLetter
Using Scott McNealy’s (former CEO of Sun Microsystems) screed as a template for $NVDA, this is what a P/S ratio of 40 actually means. 👇🏼
10
12
132
@MikeZaccardi
Just because Apollo and Torsten says it’s so, doesn’t make it true
@MikeZaccardi
.
I didn’t even get past the first item listed before calling bullshit. 👇🏼
You and Apollo are the ones “ignoring reality”.
9
2
127
@KobeissiLetter
The Fed needs higher rates to fight inflation. The Treasury needs lower rates to manage $34 Trillion in debt. They’re trapped, and we’re all going to pay the price.
10
12
119
@KobeissiLetter
“Why is there so much gold buying in China?”
The same reason they are buying and hoarding commodities like copper and oil.
They are preparing to devalue their currency, the Yuan.
8
11
120
@KobeissiLetter
“What's happening with big tech?”
Tech stocks were (and still are) tremendously overpriced. Fundamentals matter. Valuations matter.
10
2
117
@LizzMurr56
The Houthi rebels in Yemen brought back the practice of slavery. Your narrative needs some work.
5
4
112
@KobeissiLetter
“Why are consumers losing confidence?”
Because the Wall Street stock market isn’t the Main Street economy.
6
5
104
@KobeissiLetter
“Is the Fed trapped?”
Yes. The Fed needs higher interest rates to fight inflation. But the US Treasury needs lower interest rates to service the national debt.
Either way this plays out, pain is involved. 🤷🏼♂️
10
8
104
@KobeissiLetter
“What a time to be in the market.”
What a perfect time to lock in your profits and reduce risk exposure.
There, I fixed it for you. 🤙🏼
4
2
99
We’re in peak tourist season on Maui right now (kids are out of school) and the beaches and beach parking aren’t even busy.
Got recession?
25
14
101
@TheRealGG4GB
@VisionaryVoid
@fasc1nate
He was not a “Great American Ambassadors of Goodwill”. He was a proud Hawaiian who viewed the overthrow of the Hawaiian monarchy with sadness and resentment. He even wrote a beautiful protest song about it titled ‘Hawai’i ‘78’.
3
3
99
@KobeissiLetter
You’re making contradictory statements. Yes, demand isn’t as strong as it appears but then you state we don’t have enough existing home supply.
New home prices wouldn’t be crashing if supply of existing homes was too low. STRs, 2nd homes and corporate ownership just makes it
13
1
94
@KobeissiLetter
Know what’s really funny? 😂
Despite all the shit people give him,
@leadlagreport
(Michael Gayed) might actually be right. The unwind of the Yen carry trade might be what brings the whole market down.
18
5
99
@KobeissiLetter
“This is a sudden rush to the exit.”
So far this is an orderly sell off, there is nothing sudden about this. Most market participants today have no idea what a sudden rush to the exit looks and feels like.
8
3
98
@KobeissiLetter
Sometimes with investing, there are times when it’s best to do nothing. Just watch and observe until things become more clear. It always amazes me how most investors are uncomfortable with doing nothing.
6
3
95
This applies to economics, investing and financial markets too. 👇🏼
Yesterday I was mocked for being so committed to my data and fact based approach.
As I’ve said before, I don’t care about being right, I care about being successful.
6
42
96
@KobeissiLetter
“The era of "free money" is over.”
The era of free money never should have happened. When money is free, malinvestment becomes an epidemic.
2
0
93
Remember a couple of months ago when I said something broke in California this past September and I was confident California was already in a recession? 👇🏼
I know, nobody cares.
14
12
93
@KobeissiLetter
Stock buybacks used to be a violation of SEC rules as they were (accurately) viewed as stock price manipulation.
Financial engineering being rewarded.
8
9
91
@KobeissiLetter
“Why are Treasury issuances and deficits at record levels if we are on track for a "soft landing?"”
Because they are trying to kick the can until after the election.
2
8
88
@KobeissiLetter
“What happens if a recession hits?”
I think you mean what happens WHEN a recession hits. The answer is more QE, ZIRP and other forms of financial repression.
4
7
87
@KobeissiLetter
“Over the last 45 years, a reading this low has only ever occurred during a recession.”
The datapoints indicating that we’re already in a recession are everywhere.
2
2
83
@KobeissiLetter
“Is this the most resilient market of all time?”
No, it’s the most ridiculous market of all time.
0
3
73
The gap between Homebuilder Confidence and Homebuyer Confidence has never been greater. 👇🏼
Which one do you believe?
@m3_melody
9
19
75
@TristanSnell
It’s also the same years that thousands of phony small businesses were “created” to bilk billions from the pandemic PPP and ERTC programs. There is most definitely a correlation.
4
1
68
@KobeissiLetter
Nobody wants to hear this, but all these conflicting signals are a result of the “lag” period after a significant hiking cycle.
Suddenly injecting $10 trillion into the economy requires more time for the cycle to process the increase in interest rates.
1
3
75
"This is the most vulnerable market there has ever been”. 👇🏼
Jeremy Grantham 08/08/24
13
12
74
When the Fed cut rates in Jan 2001, the S&P 500 bounced for a few weeks and in total it dropped 50%.
After the Fed cut rates in Sep 2007, the S&P 500 bounced for a few weeks and later dropped 57%.
If you are following Ryan, you’re being criminally misinformed. 👇🏼
15
5
75
@KobeissiLetter
At a PE Ratio of 63 and a PS Ratio of 33, this doesn’t end well for $NVDA investors.
I know, nobody cares.
18
2
69
@KobeissiLetter
How much debt was required to generate that estimated 2.8% growth in GDP?
Debt fueled growth is only borrowed, never owned.
7
2
68
@KobeissiLetter
So many are acting like a 5.5% Fed Fund Rate is extreme. Of course there are massive inflows into money markets, people can finally get a decent return without being pushed into risk assets! This is what a normal rate environment looks like folks. 🤦🏻♂️
2
0
67
@JeffWeniger
@RJRCapital
“Value investing is predicated on the efficient market hypothesis being wrong.”
— Seth Klarman
5
3
53
I want to short whatever the 563 people who “Liked” Mike’s post are long. 👇🏼
And yes, I chose violence today.
9
4
63
The Conference Board Leading Indicators (LEI) has never touched or crossed through their Coincident Indicators (CEI) without us already being in a recession. 👇🏼
This supports
@DiMartinoBooth
call that the recession started in October, 2023.
3
21
62
@KobeissiLetter
Look at that chart, then remember home building accounts for 16% of our economy.
But please, keep buying the same 7 stocks. I’m sure that will work out well at the end of the cycle.
4
4
63
@KobeissiLetter
Remember all that free money being handed out during the pandemic?
And now people are shocked that money isn’t free? Really? 🤦🏻♂️
8
4
61
@KobeissiLetter
The number of January 2024 layoffs were over 103,000, not 82,000. 👇🏼
MacroEdge records 103,470 job cuts in January - a new high for the MacroEdge Job Cuts Tracker.
News report tomorrow and data available on Sunday.
8
69
239
1
10
58
“Recessions typically emerge after GDP has run beyond its potential. Recessions typically emerge after the rate of unemployment has dropped to low levels. In those periods of tight capacity, the Fed will typically be raising rates, not to cause a recession, but in an effort to
New September 2024 comment is up! 🐳
Fed policy, valuations, market internals, compression/extension flags, hedging, bonds, gold, full-cycle perspective, and more.
17
34
173
1
2
59
Bulls, please tell me again how this is sustainable? 👇🏼
21
10
56
@KobeissiLetter
“Who is going to fund all of this debt?”
We are. Either by paying higher taxes or dealing with higher inflation, or both.
6
3
57
@KobeissiLetter
“Credibility is everything for central banks"
LOL, they lost all credibility a long time ago.
1
1
57
A new comment from
@hussmanjp
just dropped. 👇🏼
“My impression is that the U.S. stock market is forming the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in history”.
“It’s not a balloon - it’s just a bubble.��
1
5
58
An absolute banger from
@hussmanjp
just dropped. 👇🏼
“this is an extraordinarily good moment to examine your risk exposures and to take them seriously”
0
4
55
@KobeissiLetter
“Bullish sentiment is so strong that corporations want their stock back.”
This statement is laughable. Corporations don’t do buybacks because of bullish sentiment. The decision to buyback stock is made by C-Suite Executives/Boards who have stock based compensation packages.
3
3
55
@KobeissiLetter
It’s concerning that you consistently present this data like it’s all a good thing with little to no commentary on the extreme risks involved.
Anyone with even basic knowledge of market history and fundamentals understands that none of this ends well.
6
1
55
@KobeissiLetter
New records are what happens right before big drops. If US households don’t focus on current risks, they’ll soon regret it.
2
4
54
@KobeissiLetter
“US stocks are charging a heavy premium.”
By many respected valuation metrics, this is the most overvalued market in history.
1
4
54
@KobeissiLetter
“Small businesses are the backbone of the US economy.”
Someone needs to remind Federal, State and Local governments of this!
3
0
54
@KobeissiLetter
“Are we in the biggest bubble of all time?”
Yes.
The Fed created way too much liquidity during the pandemic and the excess capital has been both moving and concentrating in multiple asset classes including stocks, CRE, Multi-Family Housing, certain Currency carry trades, etc.
2
1
52
@KobeissiLetter
“Market risk appetite has never been stronger.”
Which is exactly when bad things typically happen.
1
1
52
@KobeissiLetter
This “historic run” will eventually be followed by a historic reversion to the mean.
Debt fueled growth is only borrowed, never owned.
2
2
49
In early 2000, I was managing equity and option trading desks for a fairly large broker/dealer.
Every Friday was “Pizza Friday” as the company bought pizzas for lunch for all employees. Our office was attached to one of our large branch offices where we had a couple of computers
My bp’s almost 90 year old grandmother just texted him “I would like to buy some AI stocks…. can you recommend?”
Mania on steroids, LOL!
7
10
94
4
4
40
@KobeissiLetter
There’s been an epidemic of negative revisions to BLS data every month for over a year.
The BLS just provided the 2nd data revision for February and the 1st one for March. US jobs revisions for Q1 were -124,000.
Funny how this is much more prevalent during election years. 🤔
3
1
46
@KobeissiLetter
“Auto loans could be the first to begin defaulting.”
“Begin”. What?
This is the chart you shared yesterday. It obviously shows auto loans aren’t “beginning” to default, it shows that they are defaulting, with subprime at GFC levels.
3
6
49
@GameofTrades_
“Yet the recession is still a no-show”.
Those who are students of financial history understand that the real damage to the economy, financial markets and labor comes after the yield curve inversions, during the re-steepening. It’s coming.
2
1
48
@KobeissiLetter
“The rotation of this capital back into equities could drive new all time highs.”
Another way of saying “cash on the sidelines”.
This myth has been debunked ad nauseum.
@KobeissiLetter
should know better. 🤦🏻♂️
5
4
49
@VanDiemen_
You should have started with seeking to understand from the local perspective, not ended with it.
Best wishes. 🤙🏼
13
0
48
@KobeissiLetter
1. This wasn’t a bull market, just a bear market rally.
2. Higher for longer, until something breaks.
3. We’re already in a recession.
4. See number 3.
5. VIX will be rising much more.
Everything adds up perfectly.
4
1
47
@KobeissiLetter
“What’s the long-term plan here?”
The plan is to keep incurring debt as long as possible. Apathy is the plan.
Nobody cares until they’re forced to care.
2
1
47
@KobeissiLetter
The vast majority of these unrealized losses are banks and brokerages sitting on underwater long duration US Treasuries. It’s absolutely a concern.
It’s also important to remember that historically, the Fed lowers rates quickly when something breaks. If this happens again, these
6
2
45
@KobeissiLetter
The vast majority of “unrealized losses” on bank’s balance sheets are on long duration Treasuries.
Higher for longer until something breaks. Once something breaks, the Fed will return to ZIRP. The large bank’s unrealized losses will quickly become gains. They’re counting on it.
7
3
46
@KobeissiLetter
I wonder how many billions the BOJ just wasted for a few days of breathing room?
5
0
45
@KobeissiLetter
History tells us the more people talk about a “soft landing” the less likely it is to happen. 👇🏼
1
4
46
@KobeissiLetter
“Is GDP still the best economic indicator?”
A more important question is how much debt was required to get to that estimated 2.8% GDP?
5
1
43
Tech investors in the early 2000s thought the bear market had ended during a 35% rebound. Then again during a 25% rebound. Then again during a 41% rebound. Then again during a 45% rebound. 👇🏼
#BearMarket
#BearMarketRally
2
8
43
@KobeissiLetter
There is no new normal. A bubble isn’t forming, it’s already fully formed and on the precipice. For students of financial history, markets rallying after the Fed’s mouthpiece at the WSJ signals a ‘pivot’ is completely expected.
1
3
40
@KobeissiLetter
“saved the day”???
Have you considered the possibility that this is a blow off top, and that most retail investors will be wrecked by a normal and eventual reversion to the mean?
6
1
43
Another banger from
@hussmanjp
, rich with data and uncommon sense. 👇🏼
New comment is up! 🐳
Universal Capitulation and No Margin of Safety
38
62
310
2
6
42
@KiribatiGov
@SantiagoAuFund
Oprah, Ellison, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Benioff, and now…Kiribati?
The sands of my birth do not belong to you.
Ua Mau ke Ea o ka ʻĀina i ka Pono 🤙🏼
2
0
42
RETAIL SALES
The real story: Non-seasonally adjusted, retail sales fell -5.9%, month over month.
1
6
41
@KobeissiLetter
The end of cycle signs are everywhere. But when you encourage people to be cautious, you’re labeled a bear and dismissed.
The labels don’t bother me. Seeing people unnecessarily suffer after a bubble pops does bother me. There are times to be cautious, this is one of them.
5
3
40